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GOP Primaries Megathread! (Super Tuesday thread)

  • 06-03-2012 11:05AM
    #1
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 38,989 ✭✭✭✭


    This post has been deleted.


«1345

Comments

  • #2
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

    Predictions:

    Newt: GA
    Rick: TN, OK, ND
    Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

    Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.


  • #3
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 38,989 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • #4
    kev9100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,270 ✭✭✭kev9100


    I can't really see Paul winning any states simply because he does not have the funds to really compete across multiple states. He'll continue to pick up delagates without winning a state.

    Gingrich will probably win his home-state of Georgia which could push him back into being the most prominent anti-mitt, but his lack of ability to get votes outside the South reduces his chances of mounting a comeback.

    Santorum will do well enough in the more conservative states and will pick up a fair few delagates. However, if he doesn't win Ohio I think it's fair to say that his chances of winning the nomination are gone. My bet would be that he'll just miss out in Ohio.

    This is probably the night where Romney finally pulls ahead and pretty much seals the nomination. Even though it should be very close, he'll just edge out Santorum in Ohio. However, it really is a damning indictment of him that he has struggled so much and that the uber conservative base of the GOP still doesn't like him.

    All in all, an interesting night to come!


  • #5
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Irish time, what time will we be expecting some results or accurate predictions?

    Will this be on CNN available on Chorus UPC?


  • #6
    timesnap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭timesnap


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

    Predictions:

    Newt: GA
    Rick: TN, OK, ND
    Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

    Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.

    Brave man matthew8 calling Ohio for Romney so early today.
    polls still calling it too close to call at 21.00 GMT.
    interesting that Santorum is losing female vole every time he opens his mouth.

    Dan Rather has just being given his two cents(and he has seen it all.)
    says this will at least go to may or June.


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  • #7
    timesnap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭timesnap


    BOHtox wrote: »
    Irish time, what time will we be expecting some results or accurate predictions?
    Will this be on CNN available on Chorus UPC?

    So far CNN have been calling results at 02.00 GMT if possible,depends on how close the race is.
    Sky/UPC carry CNN international but so far have being staying with CNN domestic.
    incredibly CNNi cut to a documentary when Obama was 9 delegates short of the nomination in 2008


  • #8
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    So far: Exit polls suggest Newt wins big in Georgia. Mitt Romney embarassed because Virginia not called when polls close (1 on 1 against Paul he should really be getting 75%) and VT still too close to call (this really is a bad result).


  • #9
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    matthew8 wrote: »
    So far: Exit polls suggest Newt wins big in Georgia. Mitt Romney embarassed because Virginia not called when polls close (1 on 1 against Paul he should really be getting 75%) and VT still too close to call (this really is a bad result).

    13% of the ballot counted in Virginia. Paul trails 44-56 to Romney. Paul could cause an upset here...


  • #10
    kev9100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,270 ✭✭✭kev9100


    BOHtox wrote: »
    13% of the ballot counted in Virginia. Paul trails 44-56 to Romney. Paul could cause an upset here...

    Nah not a chance. Virginia really did turn into a bit of a joke with only two candidates on the ballot.


  • #11
    dublinman1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,375 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    Sky News website is just showing live coverage in Georgia where Gingrich has won there. Probably live on Sky News SD or HD too.

    I actually seen well known Country Singer Kenny Rogers sing at his event in Georgia.

    http://news.sky.com/home/

    Romney is going through a boost after reportedly winning the three contests in Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.

    http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16183748


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  • #12
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    kev9100 wrote: »
    Nah not a chance. Virginia really did turn into a bit of a joke with only two candidates on the ballot.


    It's easy to say that an hour later when most votes have been counted and projections have been made:P


  • #13
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    BOHtox wrote: »
    It's easy to say that an hour later when most votes have been counted and projections have been made:P

    Even then it was clear from the exit polls. Paul did very well to get 40% and 3 delegates in a state he hardly stepped foot in. Apparently it looks good for him in ND.

    OH could go back and forth, Santorum's ahead by a few thousand but Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus aren't really coming in yet and they should go Romney.


  • #14
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

    Predictions:

    Newt: GA
    Rick: TN, OK, ND
    Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

    Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.

    Looking good right now, got Newt's and Rick's right, 4 of Mitt's and I'm fairly sure he'll take Ohio too. Alaska will probably be wrong because it was just a guess.


  • #15
    timesnap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭timesnap


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Looking good right now, got Newt's and Rick's right, 4 of Mitt's and I'm fairly sure he'll take Ohio too. Alaska will probably be wrong because it was just a guess.

    Well 10/10 matthew8!:) he did get Alaska but beat Santorum by only about 12.000 votes from a total of over 1.1 million cast in Ohio.
    who would want to be a Republican supporter hoping to win in November, eh we are deciding who our least worst candidate is to go against Obama:pac:


  • #16
    spank_inferno
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,884 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    Is it fair to say that after last night, though Romney had several narrow wins, he is a certainty to be the candidate?


  • #17
    timesnap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭timesnap


    spank_inferno wrote: »
    Is it fair to say that after last night, though Romney had several narrow wins, he is a certainty to be the candidate?

    There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
    surely that is just too far fetched?


  • #18
    RichieC
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,331 ✭✭✭RichieC


    timesnap wrote: »
    There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
    surely that is just too far fetched?

    Haha, I wondered why Palin suddenly surfaced back in the news to defend Limbaugh...


  • #19
    timesnap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭timesnap


    RichieC wrote: »
    Haha, I wondered why Palin suddenly surfaced back in the news to defend Limbaugh...

    She must have some house,all those windows,she can see both Russia and the convention from it.
    i wonder will she do a Cheyney and by mistake shoot Romney,Gingrich,Santorum and Paul whilst out killing moose.;)


  • #20
    FrankieChoo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6 ✭FrankieChoo


    <mod snip>

    Save the Mitt/Monty Burns graphics for the Politics Cafe or YLYL, thanks.


  • #21
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    timesnap wrote: »
    There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
    surely that is just too far fetched?

    The media here are doing their best to make the race sound live and exciting, when really it's inevitable now that Romney gets the nomination.

    There'll be a bit of bluster next week when a few southern states go for Gingrich and Santorum, but I can't see either follow that up with any big wins.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



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  • #22
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    timesnap wrote: »
    Well 10/10 matthew8!:) he did get Alaska but beat Santorum by only about 12.000 votes from a total of over 1.1 million cast in Ohio.
    who would want to be a Republican supporter hoping to win in November, eh we are deciding who our least worst candidate is to go against Obama:pac:

    Of course I would vote for Paul if I could, but as a republican I'm hoping for a brokered convention and new candidate.

    This one's not over by a long shot. Romney shouldn't win any of the next 3 (he may come third) and the primary is very back heavy, so it won't be decided for a long time.


  • #23
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Of course I would vote for Paul if I could, but as a republican I'm hoping for a brokered convention and new candidate.

    This one's not over by a long shot. Romney shouldn't win any of the next 3 (he may come third) and the primary is very back heavy, so it won't be decided for a long time.


    What are the next 3? when are the next 3? and who'll win them?

    Just curios here...


  • #24
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    BOHtox wrote: »
    What are the next 3? when are the next 3? and who'll win them?

    Just curios here...

    Next up is Kansas on Saturday. Santorum should win there. They love their social conservatives. Technically Hawaii and some pacific caucuses are on the same day but no one cares about those. Infact, so few people cared about Hawaii in 2008 that they didn't report results. After that it's Alabama/Mississipi, which Gingrich should take.


  • #25
    Vadakin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭Vadakin


    As an outsider, I look at this and think that the Republican candidate will be there to make up the numbers, that Obama will crush him. But American elections seem to defy logic.

    Apparently not caring about the poor, wanting the rich to get richer at the expense of everyone else, saying that corporations are people and money is free speech, allowing lobbyists and superpacs to push their agendas, the ordinary citizen be damned, wanting to keep taxes low for the rich while reducing wages for public workers, removing their collective bargaining rights in the process...all of this during a recession...apparently that gets you votes. That makes no sense to me...but then I am human... :P

    My God, if Regan was a candidate today he'd be accused of being a secret communist and he'd probably be on the Democrat ticket rather than the Republican ticket.


  • #26
    Denerick
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,485 ✭✭✭Denerick


    I tip my hat to Matthew8 and his uncanny ability to predict the ever unpredictable Republican primary contests.

    This is wonderful news. Its Romney's to lose now, but I'll bet he'll screw up badly before the convention. This thing will drag on for months and a wounded Republican who only managed to win because his outspent his opponents a hundred to one will be the standard bearer of a plutocratic cause in an age of depression.

    Its like asking the American people to choose between Monty Burns and Barack Obama, a true latter day saint in a troubling and unsettled time.

    They used to say that the democrats were masters of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Republicans will be bearing that mantle for some time to come.

    If only someone like Jon Huntsman had won...


  • #27
    kev9100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,270 ✭✭✭kev9100


    matthew8 wrote: »
    After that it's Alabama/Mississipi, which Gingrich should take.

    I wouldn't discount Santorum in Alabama or Mississipi.


  • #28
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    I tip my hat to Matthew8 and his uncanny ability to predict the ever unpredictable Republican primary contests.
    Yep. No guesswork at all.
    They used to say that the democrats were masters of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Republicans will be bearing that mantle for some time to come.
    They are in deep crap nationally unless they can get some minority appeal. The minorities are just too big to win without. They can get some regional minority appeal like Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez and they can get moderate appeal in the northeast, but these guys won't win among the ordinary republican voters.


  • #29
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    I don't feel like making a separate thread for every primary, so I'll just post about them here if that's alright. The next upcoming contests are Kansas, the Northern Marianas Islands, Guam and the US virgin islands and they are all caucuses (which means they have a lower turnout and take longer to get the results in). Kansas is Santorum country, located in between Oklahoma, Colorado and Oklahoma and famous for is focus on social issues, he only loses this if he drops out or something. The real fight here is for delegates. 40 up for grabs (and those superdelegates are bound to the winner in Kansas in Kansas, unlike nearly everywhere else where they decide who to vote for themselves) and Santorum is virtually guaranteed at least 15 delegates for winning the state and all congressional districts. Then there are 25 at large delegates which are proportional, but you need to get 20% to avail of this. I think Santorum will thump the other candidates, Huckabee got 60% here even when McCain seemed to be winning in a landslide. I think Romney will break 20 and maybe pick up 7 delegates, giving Santorum 33 delegates. As for the island caucuses, it's anyone's guess. In total 18 delegates are up for grabs in those caucuses. Romney should win the Marianas, McCain got 91% here (with all of 105 votes) in 2008 and those should translate to Romney. Uncommitted won the Virgin Islands in 2008, but Romney is the default favourite. McCain only won Guam 60-40 vs. Huckabee, so maybe Santorum wins here. But I'm guessing Romney wins all 3.


  • #30
    BOHtox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭BOHtox


    Perhaps this can just be renamed "GOP nomination"?

    Does Ron Paul stand a chance of winning any state?


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  • #31
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,597 ✭✭✭matthew8


    BOHtox wrote: »
    Perhaps this can just be renamed "GOP nomination"?

    Does Ron Paul stand a chance of winning any state?

    Well all his best chances are gone. I'm sure he's won the delegate count in a few caucuses but when it comes to the voting numbers he's really unlikely to win anything at this point. There's no polling (and we didn't get a result in 2008) in Hawaii and it's a caucus, so maybe he has a chance there. He could potentially do well in the Nebraska and Montana caucuses as they're in areas favourable to him, and if you look at the Idaho map he did very well in the areas around Montana so if the race is still competitive with 4 candidates he could potentially do very well there. Right now his focus is on delegates. He'll be aiming for at least 5 in Kansas which he'll get if he gets 20% and he's got 20% in 6 of the 9 caucuses so far.


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