GOP Primaries Megathread! (Super Tuesday thread)

Permabear

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matthew8

Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

Predictions:

Newt: GA
Rick: TN, OK, ND
Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

kev9100

I can't really see Paul winning any states simply because he does not have the funds to really compete across multiple states. He'll continue to pick up delagates without winning a state.

Gingrich will probably win his home-state of Georgia which could push him back into being the most prominent anti-mitt, but his lack of ability to get votes outside the South reduces his chances of mounting a comeback.

Santorum will do well enough in the more conservative states and will pick up a fair few delagates. However, if he doesn't win Ohio I think it's fair to say that his chances of winning the nomination are gone. My bet would be that he'll just miss out in Ohio.

This is probably the night where Romney finally pulls ahead and pretty much seals the nomination. Even though it should be very close, he'll just edge out Santorum in Ohio. However, it really is a damning indictment of him that he has struggled so much and that the uber conservative base of the GOP still doesn't like him.

All in all, an interesting night to come!

BOHtox

Irish time, what time will we be expecting some results or accurate predictions?

Will this be on CNN available on Chorus UPC?

timesnap

matthew8 wrote: »

Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

Predictions:

Newt: GA
Rick: TN, OK, ND
Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.

Brave man matthew8 calling Ohio for Romney so early today.
polls still calling it too close to call at 21.00 GMT.
interesting that Santorum is losing female vole every time he opens his mouth.

Dan Rather has just being given his two cents(and he has seen it all.)
says this will at least go to may or June.

timesnap

BOHtox wrote: »

Irish time, what time will we be expecting some results or accurate predictions?
Will this be on CNN available on Chorus UPC?

So far CNN have been calling results at 02.00 GMT if possible,depends on how close the race is.
Sky/UPC carry CNN international but so far have being staying with CNN domestic.
incredibly CNNi cut to a documentary when Obama was 9 delegates short of the nomination in 2008

matthew8

So far: Exit polls suggest Newt wins big in Georgia. Mitt Romney embarassed because Virginia not called when polls close (1 on 1 against Paul he should really be getting 75%) and VT still too close to call (this really is a bad result).

BOHtox

matthew8 wrote: »

So far: Exit polls suggest Newt wins big in Georgia. Mitt Romney embarassed because Virginia not called when polls close (1 on 1 against Paul he should really be getting 75%) and VT still too close to call (this really is a bad result).

13% of the ballot counted in Virginia. Paul trails 44-56 to Romney. Paul could cause an upset here...

kev9100

BOHtox wrote: »

13% of the ballot counted in Virginia. Paul trails 44-56 to Romney. Paul could cause an upset here...

Nah not a chance. Virginia really did turn into a bit of a joke with only two candidates on the ballot.

dublinman1990

Sky News website is just showing live coverage in Georgia where Gingrich has won there. Probably live on Sky News SD or HD too.

I actually seen well known Country Singer Kenny Rogers sing at his event in Georgia.

http://news.sky.com/home/

Romney is going through a boost after reportedly winning the three contests in Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16183748

BOHtox

kev9100 wrote: »

Nah not a chance. Virginia really did turn into a bit of a joke with only two candidates on the ballot.

It's easy to say that an hour later when most votes have been counted and projections have been made:P

matthew8

BOHtox wrote: »

It's easy to say that an hour later when most votes have been counted and projections have been made:P

Even then it was clear from the exit polls. Paul did very well to get 40% and 3 delegates in a state he hardly stepped foot in. Apparently it looks good for him in ND.

OH could go back and forth, Santorum's ahead by a few thousand but Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus aren't really coming in yet and they should go Romney.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

Actually Georgia has the most delegates today and Newt should take at least the Lions' share.

Predictions:

Newt: GA
Rick: TN, OK, ND
Mitt: MA, VT, OH, AK, ID, VA

Paul hopes to do well in ND, ID and AK and has a chance in those.

Looking good right now, got Newt's and Rick's right, 4 of Mitt's and I'm fairly sure he'll take Ohio too. Alaska will probably be wrong because it was just a guess.

timesnap

matthew8 wrote: »

Looking good right now, got Newt's and Rick's right, 4 of Mitt's and I'm fairly sure he'll take Ohio too. Alaska will probably be wrong because it was just a guess.

Well 10/10 matthew8!:) he did get Alaska but beat Santorum by only about 12.000 votes from a total of over 1.1 million cast in Ohio.
who would want to be a Republican supporter hoping to win in November, eh we are deciding who our least worst candidate is to go against Obama:pac:

spank_inferno

Is it fair to say that after last night, though Romney had several narrow wins, he is a certainty to be the candidate?

timesnap

spank_inferno wrote: »

Is it fair to say that after last night, though Romney had several narrow wins, he is a certainty to be the candidate?

There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
surely that is just too far fetched?

RichieC

timesnap wrote: »

There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
surely that is just too far fetched?

Haha, I wondered why Palin suddenly surfaced back in the news to defend Limbaugh...

timesnap

RichieC wrote: »

Haha, I wondered why Palin suddenly surfaced back in the news to defend Limbaugh...

She must have some house,all those windows,she can see both Russia and the convention from it.
i wonder will she do a Cheyney and by mistake shoot Romney,Gingrich,Santorum and Paul whilst out killing moose.;)

FrankieChoo

<mod snip>

Save the Mitt/Monty Burns graphics for the Politics Cafe or YLYL, thanks.

Brian?

timesnap wrote: »

There was some speculation on radio this morning that this might go all the way to the convention and none of the above will be the nominee,believe it or not a spokeswoman for republicans abroad said she believed Sarah Palin would take up the offer.
surely that is just too far fetched?

The media here are doing their best to make the race sound live and exciting, when really it's inevitable now that Romney gets the nomination.

There'll be a bit of bluster next week when a few southern states go for Gingrich and Santorum, but I can't see either follow that up with any big wins.

matthew8

timesnap wrote: »

Well 10/10 matthew8!:) he did get Alaska but beat Santorum by only about 12.000 votes from a total of over 1.1 million cast in Ohio.
who would want to be a Republican supporter hoping to win in November, eh we are deciding who our least worst candidate is to go against Obama:pac:

Of course I would vote for Paul if I could, but as a republican I'm hoping for a brokered convention and new candidate.

This one's not over by a long shot. Romney shouldn't win any of the next 3 (he may come third) and the primary is very back heavy, so it won't be decided for a long time.

BOHtox

matthew8 wrote: »

Of course I would vote for Paul if I could, but as a republican I'm hoping for a brokered convention and new candidate.

This one's not over by a long shot. Romney shouldn't win any of the next 3 (he may come third) and the primary is very back heavy, so it won't be decided for a long time.

What are the next 3? when are the next 3? and who'll win them?

Just curios here...

matthew8

BOHtox wrote: »

What are the next 3? when are the next 3? and who'll win them?

Just curios here...

Next up is Kansas on Saturday. Santorum should win there. They love their social conservatives. Technically Hawaii and some pacific caucuses are on the same day but no one cares about those. Infact, so few people cared about Hawaii in 2008 that they didn't report results. After that it's Alabama/Mississipi, which Gingrich should take.

Vadakin

As an outsider, I look at this and think that the Republican candidate will be there to make up the numbers, that Obama will crush him. But American elections seem to defy logic.

Apparently not caring about the poor, wanting the rich to get richer at the expense of everyone else, saying that corporations are people and money is free speech, allowing lobbyists and superpacs to push their agendas, the ordinary citizen be damned, wanting to keep taxes low for the rich while reducing wages for public workers, removing their collective bargaining rights in the process...all of this during a recession...apparently that gets you votes. That makes no sense to me...but then I am human... :P

My God, if Regan was a candidate today he'd be accused of being a secret communist and he'd probably be on the Democrat ticket rather than the Republican ticket.

Denerick

I tip my hat to Matthew8 and his uncanny ability to predict the ever unpredictable Republican primary contests.

This is wonderful news. Its Romney's to lose now, but I'll bet he'll screw up badly before the convention. This thing will drag on for months and a wounded Republican who only managed to win because his outspent his opponents a hundred to one will be the standard bearer of a plutocratic cause in an age of depression.

Its like asking the American people to choose between Monty Burns and Barack Obama, a true latter day saint in a troubling and unsettled time.

They used to say that the democrats were masters of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Republicans will be bearing that mantle for some time to come.

If only someone like Jon Huntsman had won...

kev9100

matthew8 wrote: »

After that it's Alabama/Mississipi, which Gingrich should take.

I wouldn't discount Santorum in Alabama or Mississipi.

matthew8

I tip my hat to Matthew8 and his uncanny ability to predict the ever unpredictable Republican primary contests.

Yep. No guesswork at all.

They used to say that the democrats were masters of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Republicans will be bearing that mantle for some time to come.

They are in deep crap nationally unless they can get some minority appeal. The minorities are just too big to win without. They can get some regional minority appeal like Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez and they can get moderate appeal in the northeast, but these guys won't win among the ordinary republican voters.

matthew8

I don't feel like making a separate thread for every primary, so I'll just post about them here if that's alright. The next upcoming contests are Kansas, the Northern Marianas Islands, Guam and the US virgin islands and they are all caucuses (which means they have a lower turnout and take longer to get the results in). Kansas is Santorum country, located in between Oklahoma, Colorado and Oklahoma and famous for is focus on social issues, he only loses this if he drops out or something. The real fight here is for delegates. 40 up for grabs (and those superdelegates are bound to the winner in Kansas in Kansas, unlike nearly everywhere else where they decide who to vote for themselves) and Santorum is virtually guaranteed at least 15 delegates for winning the state and all congressional districts. Then there are 25 at large delegates which are proportional, but you need to get 20% to avail of this. I think Santorum will thump the other candidates, Huckabee got 60% here even when McCain seemed to be winning in a landslide. I think Romney will break 20 and maybe pick up 7 delegates, giving Santorum 33 delegates. As for the island caucuses, it's anyone's guess. In total 18 delegates are up for grabs in those caucuses. Romney should win the Marianas, McCain got 91% here (with all of 105 votes) in 2008 and those should translate to Romney. Uncommitted won the Virgin Islands in 2008, but Romney is the default favourite. McCain only won Guam 60-40 vs. Huckabee, so maybe Santorum wins here. But I'm guessing Romney wins all 3.

BOHtox

Perhaps this can just be renamed "GOP nomination"?

Does Ron Paul stand a chance of winning any state?

matthew8

BOHtox wrote: »

Perhaps this can just be renamed "GOP nomination"?

Does Ron Paul stand a chance of winning any state?

Well all his best chances are gone. I'm sure he's won the delegate count in a few caucuses but when it comes to the voting numbers he's really unlikely to win anything at this point. There's no polling (and we didn't get a result in 2008) in Hawaii and it's a caucus, so maybe he has a chance there. He could potentially do well in the Nebraska and Montana caucuses as they're in areas favourable to him, and if you look at the Idaho map he did very well in the areas around Montana so if the race is still competitive with 4 candidates he could potentially do very well there. Right now his focus is on delegates. He'll be aiming for at least 5 in Kansas which he'll get if he gets 20% and he's got 20% in 6 of the 9 caucuses so far.

BOHtox

Yeah, tbf I think Paul is running for a good few reasons, none of which are actually to become the President. I mean I'm sure he'd love it but it seems to be out of his reach.

To promote free-market capitalism
To promote Libertarianism
To have a say come the convention in May, I think... Basically he wants to pick up as many delegates to spread the field of play.
Finally, to promote all these ideas, that his son Rand also holds, so that Rand can run for president eventually with the Paul Snr supporters already supporting him.

Still, Ron Paul 2012!

Suryavarman

BOHtox wrote: »

Perhaps this can just be renamed "GOP nomination"?

Does Ron Paul stand a chance of winning any state?

Puerto Rico and South Dakota are probably the only two chances he has left.

matthew8

Suryavarman wrote: »

Puerto Rico and South Dakota are probably the only two chances he has left.

I doubt he has a chance in either. He lead in a SD poll, but that was because of his Iowa campaigning. If Santorum stays in he'll take SD (unless Romney gets big momentum) and Puerto Rico, I don't know.

RichieC

"It is like the Republican nominee for president at this point is being selected by erosion," - Jon Stewart

timesnap

kev9100 wrote: »

I wouldn't discount Santorum in Alabama or Mississipi.

Very prophetic of you kev9100,Santorum just making his victory speech for Alabama,too close to call yet on Mississipi, but according to his campaign team he has no plans to speak tonight.
What now for the GOP? none of these guys are going to beat Obama on present form.
*Some networks are calling both for Santorum at 02.45 GMT.

kev9100

timesnap wrote: »

Very prophetic of you kev9100,Santorum just making his victory speech for Alabama,too close to call yet on Mississipi, but according to his campaign team he has no plans to speak tonight.
What now for the GOP? none of these guys are going to beat Obama on present form.
*Some networks are calling both for Santorum at 02.45 GMT.

Santorum is a conservative evangelical's dream candidate so you should never count him out in the South or the Mid-West.

As for what happens next, if Gingrich stays in Santorum just won't have enough time to take this to a brokered convention. If Gingrich drops out, I would bet on a brokered convention with Romney just falling short.

No matter what, Romney comes across as a very weak and even incompetent candidate. The question has to be asked: if Romney can't beat a corrupt ex-speaker of the House and a far-right senator who lost Pennsylvania by 18 points, how could he beat Obama? I'd love to hear what Romney supporters are really thinking right now.

matthew8

Very few people expected Santorum to win both MS and AL, but now that he has I'd be shocked if he didn't win Missouri and Louisiana. Missouri won't show results though because there will be no straw poll.

timesnap

matthew8 wrote: »

now that he has I'd be shocked if he didn't win Missouri and Louisiana.

Are you willing to take wagers on that matthew?could make it all the more interesting,we could have made a lot of money if we had placed bets on your predictions for super Tuesday!;)

as a matter of interest why will Missouri not be holding a straw poll?

another question for those who are good at doing the maths,if the GOP had not introduced assigning the number of delegates in proportion to % of vote(candidate only gets all the delegates if they get 50% of the vote) what would the delegate count be at present?

*throws down challenge:)

RichieC

Mittens pathetic attempt to appeal to the people of Alabama and Mississippi really payed off.

My god it was painful.

Howdy y'all, yeehaw I had cheesy gritts for breakfast! wanted to crawl under a blanket to hide from the empathy shame...

he also asked Randy Owen to sing Lynyrd Skynyrd song sweet home Alabama...

matthew8

RichieC wrote: »

Mittens pathetic attempt to appeal to the people of Alabama and Mississippi really payed off.

My god it was painful.

Howdy y'all, yeehaw I had cheesy gritts for breakfast! wanted to crawl under a blanket to hide from the empathy shame...

he also asked Randy Owen to sing Lynyrd Skynyrd song sweet home Alabama...

To be honest I don't think he did that badly. I gave him no chance a week before, and he was quite a bit ahead in the first MS exit polls, but he was caught unawares (at a NYC fundraiser) by Santorum.

timesnap wrote: »

Are you willing to take wagers on that matthew?could make it all the more interesting,we could have made a lot of money if we had placed bets on your predictions for super Tuesday!;)

as a matter of interest why will Missouri not be holding a straw poll?

another question for those who are good at doing the maths,if the GOP had not introduced assigning the number of delegates in proportion to % of vote(candidate only gets all the delegates if they get 50% of the vote) what would the delegate count be at present?

*throws down challenge:)

I'd take a wager if I was a betting man. Super Tuesday, I probably could've made a lot of money on an accumulator (would've got something like 12/1 odds). I think that Missouri won't be using a straw poll because they already had one in the primary that gave no delegates.

I'll do your challenge. However, some caucuses are non-binding (basically a way of dodging the rules so the RNC doesn't penalise you for going early) so it makes no difference that the GOP went proportional. These are the results putting many of the contests in WTA (all the ones except the ones that weren't even in 2008):
Romney 523
Paul 29
Gingrich 102
Santorum 299
Uncommitted 43

timesnap

matthew8 wrote: »

I'll do your challenge. However, some caucuses are non-binding (basically a way of dodging the rules so the RNC doesn't penalise you for going early) so it makes no difference that the GOP went proportional. These are the results putting many of the contests in WTA (all the ones except the ones that weren't even in 2008):
Romney 523
Paul 29
Gingrich 102
Santorum 299
Uncommitted 43

Have to ask why on earth would they bother holding non binding caucuses,some strange kind of prestige thing,getting in before other districts?
i am not clear what you mean on the piece i have bolded,and what is WTA an abbreviation for?:o EDIT. eh WTA=winner takes all timesnap,fool!!!!!

Anyway this is the actual delegate count according to RCP(which i had not checked before i asked the question)
R=496
G=141
S=236
P=67.
it does not report uncommitted though.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Something i just remembered from last nights coverage which i thought was very amusing,the panel on CNN were asked why in their opinion the RNC were not putting Gingrich under more pressure to pull out,they all agreed that he is so stubborn he would stay in just to spite them if they gave him any ultimatums:)

RichieC

matthew8 wrote: »

To be honest I don't think he did that badly. I gave him no chance a week before, and he was quite a bit ahead in the first MS exit polls, but he was caught unawares (at a NYC fundraiser) by Santorum.

His pandering to the deep south was pathetic regardless of the electoral outcome.

matthew8

RichieC wrote: »

His pandering to the deep south was pathetic regardless of the electoral outcome.

He panders anywhere. Just wait and see. He said that the trees in Michigan were just the right height and that the streets were just right. Some guy on CNN last night reckoned he was poking fun at himself with the cheesy grits comment.

dfx-

kev9100 wrote: »

No matter what, Romney comes across as a very weak and even incompetent candidate. The question has to be asked: if Romney can't beat a corrupt ex-speaker of the House and a far-right senator who lost Pennsylvania by 18 points, how could he beat Obama? I'd love to hear what Romney supporters are really thinking right now.

He'll win in the South against Obama...he can't be that weak...Ron Paul would probaby win in the South against Obama

RichieC

Santorum after the Puerto rico vote..

(to a Puerto rico crowd)"Like any other state, there has to be compliance with this and any other federal law," Santorum said. "And that is that English has to be the principal language. There are other states with more than one language such as Hawaii but to be a state of the United States, English has to be the principal language."

This is a man intimate with the US constitution...

southsiderosie

MOD NOTE:

With the OP's permission, I've changed the thread title to "GOP Primaries Megathread!". This seems to have happened pretty organically, but this way people can post on the campaigns as things unfold without being nagged gently reminded (:pac:) about staying on topic.

Denerick

dfx- wrote: »

He'll win in the South against Obama...he can't be that weak...Ron Paul would probaby win in the South against Obama

Define the south - Obama would be competitive in North Carolina, Florida and Virginia against a weak Republican who fails to get the base out to vote. He would even have an outside shot in a state like Georgia (Huge black electorate with a growing professional urban middle class - an integral part of the Obama coalition) If the Republicans opted for a decent candidate who isn't slimy, insincere (Romney & Gingrich), insanely conservative (Santorum) or just plain nutty (Paul - as much as I personally like the man), they should win the election in 2012. If the convention is brokered I'd say the chances of a white knight storming in to claim the nomination would be very great indeed.

timesnap

For the record:
Romney won Illinois with 47% of the vote so no WTA for him.
CNN's early projections showed him with a lead of 58%.
40% of those who voted for any of the candidates said they done so with reservations.
it does seem now that there will not be a brokered convention?
it seems as if the only appetite left in the GOP is to let him be the candidate,just for damage limitation sake.

By his standards he made a very effective attack on Obama during his victory speech:

MITT Romney won a clear victory in the Illinois primary bolstering his claim to be the only viable Republican candidate to take on Barack Obama in November.

Early returns put Mr Romney ahead by more than ten points, a margin that will increase pressure on his remaining Republican rivals to end the divisive primary campaign and fall in line behind the former management consultant.

After failing to defeat his ultra-conservative opponent Rick Santorum in the southern states of Alabama and Mississippi a week ago, Mr Romney’s win in Illinois provides a much-needed fillip to a lacklustre campaign.

In his victory speech, the former Massachusetts governor barely mentioned his remaining Republican rivals focusing instead on Mr Obama, who he charged with strangling the American spirit of innovation.

"Day by day, job-killing regulation by job-killing regulation, bureaucrat by bureaucrat, this president is crushing the dream and the dreamers," Mr Romney said

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/americas/us-elections/us-election-mitt-romney-brushes-aside-rick-santorum-for-victory-in-illinois-3056412.html

Brian?

timesnap wrote: »

By his standards he made a very effective attack on Obama during his victory speech:

I watched that whole speach last night, I thought it was terribly delivered. He didn't make one coherent point, everything was generalities:

Obama stifles free enterprise Obama kills innovation Obama is the enemy of economic freedom

At no point did he pinpoint exactly how Obama supposedly does any of these things.

According to him if Obama was president when Thomas Edison invented the lightbulb he would have banned it, well played Mitt :rolleyes: . He's getting as bad as Gingrich.

timesnap

briankeating wrote: »

I watched that whole speach last night, I thought it was terribly delivered. He didn't make one coherent point, everything was generalities:

Obama stifles free enterprise Obama kills innovation Obama is the enemy of economic freedom

At no point did he pinpoint exactly how Obama supposedly does any of these things.

According to him if Obama was president when Thomas Edison invented the lightbulb he would have banned it, well played Mitt :rolleyes: . He's getting as bad as Gingrich.

Did you miss the bit where i said 'by his standards'.
i do not pretend to be an expert on American politics but when those who do make no input somebody really should update the milestones on the Megathread,don't you think?