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My Portfolio

  • 04-02-2012 12:26PM
    #1
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭


    Hey all,

    Following on from Adrock-aka's thread about a boards.ie fund followed on zignals.com, I have set up my own portfolio for people to see.

    It almost exactly reflects my own current portfolio (perhaps a different multiple though as this is Eur 50k!) and I will be posting updates as things develop.


    screenshot20120204at132.png


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Comments

  • #2
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Oh the symbols are as follows:

    SDR = Stroud Resources. A silver and gold explorer with properties in Mexico and Canada.

    HRP = HRT Participacoes. An oil and gas explorer with properties in the Brazilian Amazon and offshore Namibia.

    PCI = Petroceltic International. Our very own oil and gas explorer with properties in Algeria, Italy and Kurdistan.

    SlvUSD = The silver spot price. I have part of my portfolio in physical silver.

    My goal for 2012 is a 100% return on investment, i.e. to get to Eur 100k.

    High Risk!


  • #3
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Good man Turbobaby, keep it updated please. what software is that though, looks nice.


  • #4
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    www.zignals.com

    It's a great site! Irish owned, so I believe...


  • #5
    freeze4real
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭freeze4real


    is this an hypothetical portfolio.


  • #6
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    freeze4real wrote: »
    is this an hypothetical portfolio.

    Nope, it's real!


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  • #7
    freeze4real
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭freeze4real


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Nope, it's real!

    I guess it's must be a simulation. What analysis tools are you using. Or what source of information do you base trades on. Yahoo/google finance etc.


  • #8
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    freeze4real wrote: »
    I guess it's must be a simulation. What analysis tools are you using. Or what source of information do you base trades on. Yahoo/google finance etc.

    I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

    I only invest in commodities.

    Silver is an obvious choice.

    You can see my thread on HRP here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056511952 I love the prospects here. Non cash assets valued at close to 0.

    PCI: Another stock I think is ridiculously cheap.

    They just farmed out 18.375% of their Algerian Gas Field for approximately $150m and still own 56.625%. They have a little bit of debt, maybe $20m (bridging loan) which has been used because the Algerians have been so slow to ratify the farm out. The farm out cash will arrive in the next 30 days.

    Using the farm out price, simple maths says that the company's main asset (56% of Algerian field) is worth between $450m and $500m. Add that to the $150m cash, minus the debt and we get approximately $580m.

    PCI also have excellent assets in Kurdistan and Italy valued at 0!

    Right now the market cap is...... $302m. No brainer.

    Stroud: Awaiting drill results which have been very very slow. Not sure about this one!


  • #9
    freeze4real
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭freeze4real


    turbobaby wrote: »
    I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

    I only invest in commodities.

    Silver is an obvious choice.

    You can see my thread on HRP here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056511952 I love the prospects here. Non cash assets valued at close to 0.

    PCI: Another stock I think is ridiculously cheap.

    They just farmed out 18.375% of their Algerian Gas Field for approximately $150m and still own 56.625%. They have a little bit of debt, maybe $20m (bridging loan) which has been used because the Algerians have been so slow to ratify the farm out. The farm out cash will arrive in the next 30 days.

    Using the farm out price, simple maths says that the company's main asset (56% of Algerian field) is worth between $450m and $500m. Add that to the $150m cash, minus the debt and we get approximately $580m.

    PCI also have excellent assets in Kurdistan and Italy valued at 0!

    Right now the market cap is...... $302m. No brainer.

    Stroud: Awaiting drill results which have been very very slow. Not sure about this one!

    Nice how long have you been trading for.


    What trading tools do you use.


  • #10
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    I don't really trade. I just buy and hold commodity stocks with undervalued assets.

    Only started in 2010. Happy not to have lost anything so far and have learned a lot!

    I like your post on the boards portfolio thread. More technical analysis than me!


  • #11
    freeze4real
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭freeze4real


    I've have no technical knowledge of trading T all. I've done some forex trading and learnt a bit if charting tools but I need to study it again this time in depth.

    My best. mate manages a portfolio of 25000 from 10000.


    He doesn't use any chart tools but he acts or behaves like a fundamental analysts by reading news on explorations, acquisitions and mergers etc.
    What was your trading capital that you started with and your area of profession ?


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  • #12
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Dont really want to get into personal details on here. Just gonna see how the portfolio performs....

    You should go for one too!


  • #13
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    turbobaby wrote: »
    www.zignals.com

    It's a great site! Irish owned, so I believe...
    Didn't realise you said it in the OP, doh.

    Can I ask did you ever consider buying any of the popular stocks around this board, RRL, GKP and XTR etc and why you decided not to buy if you did look at them?


  • #14
    TJ Mackie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭TJ Mackie


    I've noticed a small few mutual funds that I monitor have recently invested in HRP too turbobaby - hopefully for your good fortunes these people and their vast sums of money know what they're doing! :D


  • #15
    freeze4real
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭freeze4real


    I will start to manage my demo portfolio it's been long that I managed it.


  • #16
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Thargor - I have no problems whatsoever with the shares you mention. I keep an eye on them but I'm not interested in spreading my funds across a shed load of shares.

    I like to keep my portfolio small, and try not to trade too much as the fees really add up. Also, when trying to trade in between shares you need to get your timing right twice... When to sell and when to buy. I am not good enough to do this, so I'm a buy and hold investor.

    Will probably consult others when I am starting to think about selling, but I plan on holding silver, HRP and to a lesser extent PCI for a long time.

    Mackie, great to hear about HRP. Could you let me know which mutual funds? I know Longleaf Partners are very keen on HRP and hold a lot of shares, and Eric Sprott has some holdings in the Canadian shares too.


  • #17
    The Pontiac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    For someone who started investing in 2010 you certainly seem to know what you're doing. The HRP thread is interesting.


  • #18
    OfflerCrocGod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,341 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    turbobaby wrote: »
    I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

    I only invest in commodities.
    chart.jpg


  • #19
    OfflerCrocGod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,341 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    Why should commodities provide investors with a real risk premium? Shouldn’t prices actually decline in real terms over time? A bushel of wheat, a lump of iron-ore or an ingot of silver today is identical to a bushel of wheat, lump of iron-ore or ingot of silver produced one thousand years ago. The only difference is that they’re generally cheaper to produce because over time, human innovation has lowered the cost of production. When you buy commodities, you’re selling human ingenuity.
    Dylan Grice.


  • #20
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Croc, we've had this discussion before, so please keep this thread clean and on topic. I want to keep the macro conditions out of it as much as possible. If you want to further discuss the bigger picture of US Dollars versus Commodities please go back here....

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056506476

    I would love to see your portfolio in order to see who can get the greater return over 2012. I'll let you buy HRP ;)


  • #21
    zephyro
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87 ✭✭zephyro


    Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

    1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

    2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?


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  • #22
    OfflerCrocGod
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,341 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    zephyro wrote: »
    Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

    1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

    2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?
    We don't appreciate your logic and data backed kind round her', get of my lawn.



  • #23
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    zephyro wrote: »
    Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

    1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

    2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?

    Nothing wrong with constructive critisism at all. I agree that it is incredibly concentrated but my risk tolerance is very high. There are plenty of other shares I'd be happy owning, but I chosen to concentrate it to up the risk/return ratio.

    In relation to point 1, a whole thread could be dedicated to the merits or pitfalls in the investment of commodities. In a thread friendly soundbyte, I share the view of Jim Rogers when he says that commodity prices will rise whether we are going to hit a recovery or a depression. Recovery will lead to increased demand, depression will lead to printing of paper currencies.

    However, not one of the three shares I own actually tracks the price of the commodity space they are in, as they're only explorers at this stage. As my portfolio grows I will look to purchase less risky shares that track commodity prices closer.

    This is the embryonic stage when things are very interesting!


  • #24
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    Good luck, but I think you're crazy to put half your portfolio into one junior resource stock.


  • #25
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Thanks Rask. I know it's very risky but I am very confident of HRT finding oil in Brazil and Namibia.

    They have an outstanding management team (in terms of technical ability) but the CEO, Marcio Mello, has really let the market down by not following through on promises. Dealing with analysts, shareholders etc is a real learning curve with him. They have really punished him with the current SP. Also, he is so confident of success, that he has all of his net worth in the shares.... He even borrowed cash to buy more. Now that's what I like to see from a CEO.

    I'll probably stick up a screenshot for every Eur1,000 change in the portfolio and for every trade of course.

    Well done with BAC by the way!


  • #26
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Well, I said I'd update after every €1,000 change up or down, but today I jumped straight fro +€500 to just over +€2,000.

    Great day for HRT and SDR on no news. Buyers starting to realise the outstanding value to be had here? I hope so!

    screenshot20120209at234.png


  • #27
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    I have made it past the €3,000 return barrier already (close of business yesterday). I have no doubt that I will soon crack €4,000.

    HRP has performed wonderfully, confirming to me at least that it was way oversold on it's first four drill results.

    PCI are down but that's attributable to at least one institutional investor selling up (Blackrock). Incidentally, Blackrock sold a portion of their shares in HRP last month, very close to the bottom. So I am hoping history repeats itself and we see PCI benefit from their exit.

    Stroud has been hovering around 7c and 8c lately, but news is really really overdue from the drill bit, so I am looking forward to a little boom there so I can add some more junior mining stocks.

    Really like PVG.TO and was happy to see it drop 5% yesterday. Would really love to get back in there. Sold out too early at $12. Now trading at $15.50.

    screenshot20120214at145.png


  • #28
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Good going, you say you hold those shares in that ratio, does that mean you have less than that actually invested, or more or the same if you don't mind me asking? Just being nosey :D

    Also 7.3p for PCI! WTF is going on there? I sold out and broke even at 10.5 and then forgot about them, has there been dilution?


  • #29
    Roonbox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 499 ✭✭Roonbox


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Nothing wrong with constructive critisism at all. I agree that it is incredibly concentrated but my risk tolerance is very high. There are plenty of other shares I'd be happy owning, but I chosen to concentrate it to up the risk/return ratio.

    In relation to point 1, a whole thread could be dedicated to the merits or pitfalls in the investment of commodities. In a thread friendly soundbyte, I share the view of Jim Rogers when he says that commodity prices will rise whether we are going to hit a recovery or a depression. Recovery will lead to increased demand, depression will lead to printing of paper currencies.

    However, not one of the three shares I own actually tracks the price of the commodity space they are in, as they're only explorers at this stage. As my portfolio grows I will look to purchase less risky shares that track commodity prices closer.

    This is the embryonic stage when things are very interesting!

    I started this game in 2008, very similiar storey to yourself, Jim Rogers is my main mentor, along with some other Austrian economists, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber etc...

    I went long silver and other Commodities back then, and its been good.

    A word of warning, you are way too overexposed to explorers which will be destroyed once when this bear market rally ends.. Its been a straight run for 3 years now, i give it till 2013.

    Make sure you are hedged.

    If you do you'll be on to a winner long term.

    Liam.


  • #30
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Thargor, you'll have to keep fishing for clues as I'd rather not say!

    PCI's sp was battered down to 3.8p after a couple of dusters in Algeria. The market showed their incompetence again by selling off on these dusters despite the fact it was widely known that PCI were forced to drill there by the Algerian gov't.

    There was an institutional investor selling up aswell so shares were available at a nice discount to those who understood the issues.

    PCI, like many of the AIM shares, were hammered consistently due to the Greek issues.

    The market sold off when PCI announced the Kurdistan deal as they felt PCI overpaid. They will be proven to be very wrong in time.

    Selling pressure came from delays receiving cash from the Enel farm out, and GKP have swallowed up alot of AIM investment. Once they get taken out, a shedload of cash will be invested in other less loved AIM shares.

    Little things like that have put pressure on the share price but nothing fundamental. Now that the cash has been received we should start moving forward again. Had a nice 7% rise yesterday.


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  • #31
    turbobaby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Roonbox, thanks for the comments and good to see another investor of the same ilk on here.

    Like the great Peter Schiff, I firmly believe huge problems are only around the corner for the US. The dog and pony show will have to end, but not until they have tried to print their way out of trouble.

    Nobody knows what will happen when the faeces hits the fan, but if we get hyper inflation, commodities and shares will rise nominally, and those holding cash will be burnt.

    My portfolio is very high risk, but all three shares have had the faeces kicked out of them over the last one / two years and I believe they will still represent value when the depression really comes. All three have absolutely fantastic tangiable assets that are largely not included in the share price.


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