Winter 2011/2012

could somebody please explain to me how the jet stream works, what is referred to as the northern arm of it and where it has to be for arepeat of last year cold weather. also could someone explain what blocking means .thanks

Jet streams can be found on many planets but here were are clearly talking about mother Earth! They are basically caused by solar radiation which in turn effects significant differences in temperature as the planet rotates on its axis and we experience a heating of the atmosphere. You ever been on a plane and experience turbulence? That is thanks, and no thanks, to jet streams. So... this is why we see differences in temp between the poles and then the consistent heat along the equator which constantly is reached by solar radiation and the poles receive less (As I mentioned, due to the rotation of the earth on it's axis. That do?

Blocking causes weather to be sustained in whatever weather they are currently experiencing. Like a ring that surrounds a country, protecting it from being affected by any other form of weathering. Like the persistent cold and snow we had last year was extended due to blocking... in a nut shell...

Excellent stuff... Thanks for that. Very informative!:cool:

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The latest GEFS run shows that things will cool down to average or slightly above average temperatures for the third and fourth weeks of November, with colder air making some inroads to our NW, N and NE and E.

The GEFS has been hinting at a late November outbreak of wintry weather over Ireland/UK for the past week. However, there are few signs of any blocking highs over Scandinavia or Greenland come the end of the third week of November, which suggests that a brief plunge in temps is entirely possible but the Atlantic is favoured to regain control of our weather before month's end.

The below animation features the 850hpa's (temp at 1500m approx.) for the aforementioned period. Generally, 850pa's over Ireland should be in the region of -5 (abs minimum) to -8 (preferable) to favour precipitation falling as snow.

That is the GFS control run, which starts off the same as the GFS operational but it is done at a lower resolution (same as the ensemble members) so its basically just an even less reliable version of the GFS operational in FI. I wouldn't pay too much attention to it!

I would be more worried, based on posts here, that some may not last through a winter with NO snow. I predict a sad state of affairs this winter and deep depressions across the country in the event of a mild November, December and January...:D:cool::D

Now you see, this is my worry. That all of these predictions of snow and Piers Corbyns prediction (as well as many other Astrophysicists and meteorologists) that we are only in the beginning of a mini ice age which will last for the next 25years. What if they have shares in snow gear (tyre socks, shoe grips etc). They'd be doing well!!
What does everyone think of these predictions? Now, I know the signifier 'prediction' may have you think of crystal balls and tarot cards but this is no such thing with Piers. He is a scientist and has been studying Jet streams (solar radiation/flares/activity) and the lunar (moon) cycles as predictors of weather. We all know that these stars affect the Earth is different ways (gravitational pull, the moving of tides etc) so perhaps he has it right. He also said there would be floods in Pakistan and he was right there. He predicted the Blizzards of the 12th of December (to the very DATE) last year. It would seem that he can do a better job than the MET Offices forecasts. I've been doing a fair amount of research into this and I also would like to believe it for the simple reasons that I love snow and colder weather but you cannot get away from the fact he and his team made pretty accurate predictions. Of course, he also acknowledges where some predictions were not as severe or as mild as predicted and he shows the reasons for this.
Thank god this forum exists... it's great to get some things off the chest!

todays models generally aren’t too interested in changing the pattern we’re currently stuck in, upstream teleconnections are more keen and now seem to be hinting slightly more towards a pattern change as we move towards the middle of November. I’ve previously spoken about the NAO and AO and how we ideally need both of these to be negative to bring colder, snowier weather to the United Kingdom, today both of these are hinting at dropping into the negative towards Mid-Month,



This would suggest High Pressure over the Arctic and indeed, in the Atlantic which is positive if you’re looking forward to seeing colder, snowier weather.

Another teleconnection we can look at is the MJO, which is currently forecasted to move towards a weak phrase 1, the composits for this are High Pressure towards the North, and Low Pressure over, or South of the United Kingdom.

So, the signs are there and are indeed, increasing for a pattern change as we move towards the middle of November and indeed, beyond. It’s important to remember though at these are computer models and like all weather models, they can change in an instant. If the forecast remains the same in the computer models for the next 4-5 days, then I think we can become a little more confident about a change in the outlook.

Caff Caff wrote: »

Now you see, this is my worry. That all of these predictions of snow and Piers Corbyns prediction (as well as many other Astrophysicists and meteorologists) that we are only in the beginning of a mini ice age which will last for the next 25years. What if they have shares in snow gear (tyre socks, shoe grips etc). They'd be doing well!!
What does everyone think of these predictions? Now, I know the signifier 'prediction' may have you think of crystal balls and tarot cards but this is no such thing with Piers. He is a scientist and has been studying Jet streams (solar radiation/flares/activity) and the lunar (moon) cycles as predictors of weather. We all know that these stars affect the Earth is different ways (gravitational pull, the moving of tides etc) so perhaps he has it right. He also said there would be floods in Pakistan and he was right there. He predicted the Blizzards of the 12th of December (to the very DATE) last year. It would seem that he can do a better job than the MET Offices forecasts. I've been doing a fair amount of research into this and I also would like to believe it for the simple reasons that I love snow and colder weather but you cannot get away from the fact he and his team made pretty accurate predictions. Of course, he also acknowledges where some predictions were not as severe or as mild as predicted and he shows the reasons for this.
Thank god this forum exists... it's great to get some things off the chest!

i missed what piers predicted could you post a link or give me a summary thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O76GO02LtlU&feature=related

Cant wait to land at this airport!!

This is possibly the most interesting of Piers Corbyns videos. He has been absolutely SPOT on for his prediction of September and October!! :eek:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJngbpqHAdY&feature=related

plein de force wrote: »

decided to do a bit of research on that guy and wow, he's been very accurate and going by what he said, get out the snow boots
not sure if i want it or not this year

I know! He's unreal. Well, he and his team. He always says WE. He predicted the tropical storm in Queensland, the VERY unusual Tornado in South Africa (which the Government ignored when his team warned them) the warm weather in US and sudden change to snow blizzards which we recently seen on the news. The floods here in Ireland and UK. The science cannot be argued with anymore and NASA completely agree with him and his team now. He said not to listen to the Charlatans that said October would see snow... he said it will be mild and there will be some tropical storms (which we had from the tail of Irene - again, his forecast) and then the sudden, sharp cold in the first week of November, which we had and then mild weather and then there will be cold cold snow snow snow... BOOOM!

Harps wrote: »

Are his monthly forecasts available anywhere? He's always been great at blowing his own trumpet and claiming to definitively know how to predict the weather

yes Weatheraction.com or youtube.
Interestingly, he doesn't blow his own trumpet. It's blown for him...so to speak...
He explains the science and how his predictions have been true. It is his goal to prove that the weather forecasters we have and their "science" is not science at all. As he says, "when will the world listen to science that works, rather than science that does not work". If he can predict tornados, blizzards, heat waves to the very DATE for the last number of years then I say give the man his own show...but they don't and he keeps going, unfunded because he believes. How many great men have we read something similar about in History??

Caff Caff wrote: »

I know! He's unreal. Well, he and his team. He always says WE. He predicted the tropical storm in Queensland, the VERY unusual Tornado in South Africa (which the Government ignored when his team warned them) the warm weather in US and sudden change to snow blizzards which we recently seen on the news. The floods here in Ireland and UK. The science cannot be argued with anymore and NASA completely agree with him and his team now. He said not to listen to the Charlatans that said October would see snow... he said it will be mild and there will be some tropical storms (which we had from the tail of Irene - again, his forecast) and then the sudden, sharp cold in the first week of November, which we had and then mild weather and then there will be cold cold snow snow snow... BOOOM!

Did i miss something?

Caff Caff wrote: »

The frost we had for two nights there. So yes... you must have missed that.

Frosty night in November? Why I never!