Greeks having a referendum on bailout

oscarBravo · 02-11-2011 10:58AM

K-9 wrote: »

True, it's rather easy to point to possible flaws and "what if?" type scenarios, the Oireachtas Inquiry Referendum an example.

I think this one is slightly different though. The opposition don't seem to particularly want a referendum...

Just to clarify, when I say "the opposition", in this case I mean those who are opposed to the EU bailout. It's all very well to say "we shouldn't accept the bailout" (sound familiar?) but you don't often hear people presenting detailed proposals for what should be done instead.

caseyann wrote: »

Oh p.s i dont owe anyone money

That's easy to arrange for the purposes of this thought exercise: the next time any bills come in, just don't pay them. If you have direct debits set up to pay your bills automatically, cancel them.

Pretty soon you'll owe money, then you can tell your creditors to get knotted, and test your theory first-hand. What could possibly go wrong?

djpbarry · 02-11-2011 12:09PM

caseyann wrote: »

Oh p.s i dont owe anyone money

Don’t you? Been using any public services lately?

Killer Pigeon · 02-11-2011 01:06PM

Papandreou's government has sacked the heads of the Greek army, navy and air force and the chief of the joint chiefs of staff. Although, the Greek government says that the maneuver has nothing to do with the recent political turmoil, some suggest that there are fears mounting over the prospect of a military coup d'etat in Greece. Greece was ruled by a military junta, after a coup d'etat there in 1967, until 1974.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/1...7A11TQ20111102

amacachi · 02-11-2011 03:52PM

KerranJast wrote: »

The Greeks are about as far from poor as one can imagine. Tax evasion is rife. This is a country where 2/3 Doctors pay less than €12k in tax per annum and recently an IMF team member said they had no idea how many public sector employees were on the States books.

Just to be clear, they actually claim to be earning under 12k per year, which is the cut-off point for paying no income tax.

KerranJast · 02-11-2011 04:06PM

amacachi wrote: »

Just to be clear, they actually claim to be earning under 12k per year, which is the cut-off point for paying no income tax.

Ha jebus. That's even worse. Cheers for the correction.

Mr.Micro · 02-11-2011 04:35PM

KerranJast wrote: »

The Greeks are about as far from poor as one can imagine. Tax evasion is rife. This is a country where 2/3 Doctors pay less than €12k in tax per annum and recently an IMF team member said they had no idea how many public sector employees were on the States books.

They effectively been stealing from the German taxpayer since they got into the Euro.

Saw some documentary a while back on Greece and the state of its economy. One example re public sector workers was where some hospital or Government institute had 43 full time gardeners.....but the premises has no garden whatsoever. IMO cut Greece loose and let it do as it pleases as no amount of money will save it, until, if ever, it gets real.

beeftotheheels · 02-11-2011 05:12PM

According to the FT the question to be posed is out

Greek voters would be asked not to approve or reject the terms for Greece’s next financial rescue, which European leaders set at a Brussels summit last week, but a broader question centred on support for Greece’s membership of the European Union and 17-nation eurozone.

Assuming, that it, that the vote ever sees the light of day.

anymore · 02-11-2011 05:16PM

amacachi wrote: »

Just to be clear, they actually claim to be earning under 12k per year, which is the cut-off point for paying no income tax.

Be fair the 12 k barely pays for the maintenance charges on the swimming pool !

anymore · 02-11-2011 05:19PM

Perhaps those of us Boards members who still have any few euros left in the bank, should club together to buy one or two greek Islands ?
( I am sure the majority of Boards.ie members are too savy to have any money left in Euros

)

dunphy3 · 02-11-2011 05:28PM

Tazz T wrote: »

I lived in Greece for a while. There is no way this will be passed. The Greeks will view it as austerity and loss of sovereignty against austerity. They will vote no. The money borrowed is already in the country and will be shared around via the economy. Why pay it back? Their sovereignty is far more important to them.

One of the most important days in the Greek calendar is 'Ochi' (no!) day when the Greek government said no to Axis forces entering Greece. This sense of pride will come to the fore again.

Fair play to them.

reference lisbon 1 and2,everything hangs on the wording of the refendum,ie the greek goverment will decide on exactely what is put to the people,?/call me a cinick,spelling? you now what i mean.

KINGVictor · 02-11-2011 07:03PM

My own thoughts....

The EU project has been largely successful especially in bringing old enemies together and creating a synergy between countries with different cultures, languages and philosophies. This has benefited the richer countries by gaining access to markets and maintaining peace and for the less rich ones, they have had access to structural funds to develop their countries and this has created some measure of equality in the region.

The above is a summary and perhaps a simplistic explanation of the benefits of the EU project, however, the financial crises has shown the lack of proper planning and understanding of the intricate nature of such a union. Member countries are still divided as to whether the EU is an economic union or a political union.

Some posters have alluded that Greece cooked the books to join the Euro, that is very damning and shameful, but Greece should not be solely blamed for such an atrocity. I believe that the ECB and other agencies responsible for accessing/accepting member countries into the Euro are equally culpable. What assessment methods/criteria/checks were in place in determining the suitability of countries entering the economic monetary union?

No amount of spin can absolve the French/German/English banks of culpability. There was collective greed, it just depends on the which side of the spectrum you belong to i.e. the providers of the credit or the beneficiaries.

To be fair, the French and Germans have been active in trying to mitigate the situation but at the end of the day, it all seems that national interest is still at the heart of most negotiations i.e each country trying to protect their own banks.

While I do not think the Greek government going down the route of a referendum is helpful given the uncertainty and volatility in the markets, I believe it a necessary test for the EU as a project.

Scofflaw · 02-11-2011 07:17PM

KINGVictor wrote: »

My own thoughts....

The EU project has been largely successful especially in bringing old enemies together and creating a synergy between countries with different cultures, languages and philosophies. This has benefited the richer countries by gaining access to markets and maintaining peace and for the less rich ones, they have had access to structural funds to develop their countries and this has created some measure of equality in the region.

The above is a summary and perhaps a simplistic explanation of the benefits of the EU project, however, the financial crises has shown the lack of proper planning and understanding of the intricate nature of such a union. Member countries are still divided as to whether the EU is an economic union or a political union.

Some posters have alluded that Greece cooked the books to join the Euro, that is very damning and shameful, but Greece should not be solely blamed for such an atrocity. I believe that the ECB and other agencies responsible for accessing/accepting member countries into the Euro are equally culpable. What assessment methods/criteria/checks were in place in determining the suitability of countries entering the economic monetary union?

It's a funny thing, but the Member States, who negotiated the euro, decided to trust themselves rather than opening their books to the ECB and other such agencies. Greece benefited rather obviously and I imagine most from this trusting arrangement, but it's probable that there was a fair bit of fudging and nudging.

Sure, people assume that the ECB and the EU was given oversight and intrusive powers similar to those they currently have to determine whether countries claiming to meet the criteria really did - but no, they didn't have any such powers, any more than they had the ability to look at the Irish state's books. They had only what the Member State's themselves gave them.

KINGVictor wrote: »

No amount of spin can absolve the French/German/English banks of culpability. There was collective greed, it just depends on the which side of the spectrum you belong to i.e. the providers of the credit or the beneficiaries.

To be fair, the French and Germans have been active in trying to mitigate the situation but at the end of the day, it all seems that national interest is still at the heart of most negotiations i.e each country trying to protect their own banks.

The thing about banks is that however wide they cast their business net, if they fail, they fall back on their national regulator and government - summarised as "international in life, national in death" - because there is no international regulatory apparatus. So countries try to protect "their" banks because at the end of the day, the hole they leave will be in their pockets.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 02-11-2011 07:21PM

dunphy3 wrote: »

reference lisbon 1 and2,everything hangs on the wording of the refendum,ie the greek goverment will decide on exactely what is put to the people,?/call me a cinick,spelling? you now what i mean.

Apparently the referendum will indeed be about the bailout, not euro/EU membership:

Asked about calls for the referendum to be held on euro membership, spokesman Angelos Tolkas told Reuters: "No, this will not be the issue. It will be the bailout plan."

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amtmann · 02-11-2011 07:22PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Game on!

"Total support", eh? Either Papandreou has a very big stick hidden about his person or maybe - just maybe - the referendum is in fact the cunning plan I personally like to think it might be.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'm interested in hearing what you think the cunning plan might be.

beeftotheheels · 02-11-2011 07:27PM

beeftotheheels wrote: »

According to the FT the question to be posed is out

Assuming, that it, that the vote ever sees the light of day.

Reuters saying now

Asked about calls for the referendum to be held on euro membership, spokesman Angelos Tolkas told Reuters: "No, this will not be the issue. It will be the bailout plan."

Although the EU has now suspended the 6th payment according to the FT

The Greek prime minister wrote to European Union leaders on Tuesday detailing plans to renegotiate parts of the Brussels bail-out deal, which would then be put to a referendum, the senior official said.

“Nobody is going to negotiate with the threat of a referendum,” the official said. “They cannot expect people to put money there. We came to an agreement and two days afterwards they say they can’t implement the agreement. That is not serious.”

The EU portion of the €8bn tranche of European and International Monetary Fund aid was signed off by eurozone finance ministers less than two weeks ago but has not yet been paid. Greece has to make a €12bn bond repayment on December 11.

“If they want to have a referendum, that’s of course their right, and we very much respect democracy,” the senior official said. “But in that case, they probably should not expect the others to pay out money before they get the answer.”

carveone · 02-11-2011 07:34PM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I am bookmarking this thread
if Greeks do vote NO and then "default" and the sky doesn't fall down and the world moves on
then there are plenty of quotes here already to remind people of, the scaremongering has already begun, incredible

Well, I think the sky will stay up. For us anyway. If the referendum passes then the gamble pays off and maybe it avoids more strikes and riots and sets the stage for more structural changes.

If it doesn't pass, the backstops like the EFSF may be advanced enough at that point to work. In which case they'll leave the Euro. A 50% writedown is a certainty at this point anyway so Europe should be ok as long as Italy doesn't head down the same path (I don't think it will).

But the US is another matter given the half a trillion dollars or so in default swaps underwritten by the IBanks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan) which will activate if Greece defaults. I can't imagine those guys walking straight afterwards. They've been playing these games with Europe, chasing the market up and down so it'll serve them right. AIG all over again maybe?

May you live in interesting times eh?!

Scofflaw · 02-11-2011 07:35PM

Tremelo wrote: »

I'm interested in hearing what you think the cunning plan might be.

I'm hoping that the cunning plan is to put it to the Greek people to put up or shut up. A Yes in the referendum effectively deprives the union/communist/anarchist/parliamentary opposition to the bailout of democratic legitimacy, while also forcing those who are merely playing at opposition as long as someone else is in the driving seat to stop doing so.

No bailout plan will succeed without public support - so if the Greeks say No, then the plans would have failed anyway.

Naturally this bothers Sarkozy and Merkel, because their plans don't really rely on whether the Greece plan actually works - all that matters to them is that a Greek default doesn't trigger a wave of financial crashes. But for the Greeks, the plan needs to actually work, so they'd better decide whether they want it or not before the country slides into the sewer because nobody is willing to take ownership of the problems.

Greece has to take ownership of its fate - not the Greek government, but the Greek people. A referendum on the bailout is the only way that can happen.

cordially,
Scofflaw

NinjaK · 02-11-2011 07:45PM

Hope the vote No, bring down this EU Empire

caseyann · 02-11-2011 08:57PM

KerranJast wrote: »

The Greeks are about as far from poor as one can imagine. Tax evasion is rife. This is a country where 2/3 Doctors pay less than €12k in tax per annum and recently an IMF team member said they had no idea how many public sector employees were on the States books.

They effectively been stealing from the German taxpayer since they got into the Euro.

And what is the greeks evading tax's got to do with it.I heard a story about the politicians sticking money in swiss accounts.So why should they pay tax's to help that along,they got fed up with it as one man interviewed on tv said.
And since when you trust teams who cant see a accountancy error when they go over books :eek:

Sponge Bob · 02-11-2011 09:53PM

Because pretty much none of the Greeks pay tax. They have the expenditure of a welfare state along with the income of a Nigeria. So they kept borrowing with no capacity to pay it back.

Greece is a unique and hideous mess in the developed world, the referendum wil result in their ejection from the Eurozone if it fails. They go on IOUs in around a fortnight UNLESS they dip into money ringfenced for debt repayments to pay their civil servants.

Thrill · 02-11-2011 11:42PM

Greece bailout referendum to be held around 4 or 5 December, says French President Nicolas Sarkozy

BBC

djpbarry · 02-11-2011 11:42PM

NinjaK wrote: »

Hope the vote No, bring down this EU Empire

I fail to see how isolating Greece will bring an end to the EU. And why Ireland would want an end to the EU is anyone's guess.

Sponge Bob · 02-11-2011 11:57PM

Papandreou came out of the dressing down in Cannes just now and admitted.

1. Decisions were made at the summit last week, crucial ones for Greece.
2. A strong package for Greece was agreed.
3. Greece has responsibilities.
4. He implies he came under pressure at home on the deal.
5. So he punted it to Referendum.
6. "I believe it is crucial we show the world we can live up to our obligations"

Finally , plámás as to wisdom of Greek people. We do not know what the question to be put is, of course.

Won't give exact wording but referendum is on remaining in Eurozone not on the deal.

Scofflaw · 03-11-2011 12:03AM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Papandreou came out of the dressing down in Cannes just now and admitted.

1. Decisions were made at the summit last week, crucial ones for Greece.
2. A strong package for Greece was agreed.
3. Greece has responsibilities.
4. He implies he came under pressure at home on the deal.
5. So he punted it to Referendum.
6. "I believe it is crucial we show the world we can live up to our obligations"

Finally , plámás as to wisdom of Greek people. We do not know what the question to be put is, of course.

Won't give exact wording but referendum is on remaining in Eurozone not on the deal.

Not last time I checked:

Asked about calls for the referendum to be held on euro membership, spokesman Angelos Tolkas told Reuters: "No, this will not be the issue. It will be the bailout plan."

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sponge Bob · 03-11-2011 12:07AM

I was quoting Papandreou himself, he spoke in English. If his minions are spinning differently then shucks.

Thrill · 03-11-2011 12:23AM

Greek PM: Country must decide on staying in euro

"This is not a question only of the program, this is a question of whether we want to remain in the eurozone."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-11-02-19-10-06

Scofflaw · 03-11-2011 12:32AM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I was quoting Papandreou himself, he spoke in English. If his minions are spinning differently then shucks.

I don't think Papandreou has been definitive:

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who was the last to speak, also told reporters, "this is question of whether we stay in the Eurozone," though he declined to say what the precise wording of the referendum would be. He said he believed the referendum would be held on December 4.

Whether the wording specifically refers to the bailout, it will be about whether they stay in the eurozone, though.

Eh, well, we can wait for the dust to settle - nobody's asking us!

cordially,
Scofflaw

beeftotheheels · 03-11-2011 12:38AM

Scofflaw wrote: »

I don't think Papandreou has been definitive:

Whether the wording specifically refers to the bailout, it will be about whether they stay in the eurozone, though.

Eh, well, we can wait for the dust to settle - nobody's asking us!

cordially,
Scofflaw

I suspect that just as we were hearing dates of a mid December vote from Greece earlier and a 4th December Vote from the Eurozone who have now stalled funding he has been told that if Greece is to have any chance of meeting the €12bn bond due mid December the matter must be put to bed by then, and the only choices are abiding by the current plan or leaving to a disorderly default.

“The Greek people want us to remain in the eurozone. We are part of the eurozone and we are proud to be part of the eurozone. Being part of the eurozone means having many rights and also obligations. We can live up to these obligations. I do believe there is a wide consensus among the Greek people and that’s why I want the Greek people to speak”

But as you say, all we can do is wait and see (and speculate just a little)...

Going Forward · 03-11-2011 12:40AM

Thrill wrote: »

Greek PM: Country must decide on staying in euro

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-11-02-19-10-06

Quote: "A "no" vote in the referendum would have enormous consequences not just for Greece but for the rest of Europe. It could lead to a disorderly Greek default, force Greece out of the 17-nation eurozone, topple many fragile European banks and send the global economy spinning back into recession."

These so-called fragile banks which consistently offered loans to those with no acknowledged means of repayment now deserve to topple.

This at least would go some way to cleaning up the capitalist mess created by cavalier financiers within the banking sector.

Scofflaw · 03-11-2011 12:44AM

beeftotheheels wrote: »

“The Greek people want us to remain in the eurozone. We are part of the eurozone and we are proud to be part of the eurozone. Being part of the eurozone means having many rights and also obligations. We can live up to these obligations. I do believe there is a wide consensus among the Greek people and that’s why I want the Greek people to speak”

I think he reckons he'll pull it off. Personally, I'd say his odds are good, too.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Greeks having a referendum on bailout

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