Greece will hold a referendum on bailout

AlmightyCushion · 31-10-2011 10:28PM

4leto wrote: »

Or else achieve a 10% growth rate over the next few years, now that's not going to happen.

I keep liking our crisis to the phony war in Britain in 39, it was all nice and hopeful then the **** hit the fan. In our case the fan is moving closer to the ****. We need to cut 15 billion from our budget, its 6 this year, but I haven't a clue were the other 9 will come from.

He really has to sack some public servants, and cut substantially into social welfare health and pensions all very politically sensitive areas.

True, what we need is a government that really don't want to get in government again. They'd be the only ones willing enough to piss off enough people to get our expenditure under control.

Seaneh · 31-10-2011 10:35PM

See, the myth being spouted here, and elsewhere, is that the markets won't lend to us if we refuse to pay the bank debt. This is absolute rubbish.

The reason the markets wouldn't lend to us was BECAUSE we took on the bank debt, they knew (and they still know) that we can't afford the bank debt so they backed away from us nodding and smiling.

If we removed the millstone that is the debt of private companies to other companies we could EASILY borrow the needed monies to cover our budget deficit. We would be able to borrow it at a rate we could actually afford to repay.

If we didn't have the idiocy of the bank debt to deal with we would be a infinitely more attractive proposition for private markets to lend to.

As it is we are slowly killing ourselves, we cannot afford the debt we have, we can't even afford to service the interest, we are well and turly ****ed, this is what every economist and financial expert in the world has been telling us for the past 2 years.

4leto · 31-10-2011 10:49PM

Seaneh wrote: »

See, the myth being spouted here, and elsewhere, is that the markets won't lend to us if we refuse to pay the bank debt. This is absolute rubbish.

The reason the markets wouldn't lend to us was BECAUSE we took on the bank debt, they knew (and they still know) that we can't afford the bank debt so they backed away from us nodding and smiling.

If we removed the millstone that is the debt of private companies to other companies we could EASILY borrow the needed monies to cover our budget deficit. We would be able to borrow it at a rate we could actually afford to repay.

If we didn't have the idiocy of the bank debt to deal with we would be a infinitely more attractive proposition for private markets to lend to.

As it is we are slowly killing ourselves, we cannot afford the debt we have, we can't even afford to service the interest, we are well and turly ****ed, this is what every economist and financial expert in the world has been telling us for the past 2 years.

I was on another board and I was in a minority screaming let the banks go, I still think that was the prudent thing to do, it would have being chaos for a while but then another bank like Santander or Hbos would be over the door of the branches of AIB and we would be minus the debt.

But the truth is we are here and we can't undo that policy of the bank guarantee. So the markets are not open to us.

Chips Lovell · 31-10-2011 10:52PM

Iceland never defaulted on its sovereign debt. If Greece rejects it, that's what it'll be doing.

4leto · 31-10-2011 10:53PM

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Iceland never defaulted on its sovereign debt. If Greece rejects it, that's what it'll be doing.

Yes they did, well they just decided not to pay their bank debts. They still haven't.

jimmycrackcorm · 31-10-2011 10:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Should we have one next!

We voted in the general election to accept our bailout otherwise Sinn Fein would be in charge.

Seaneh · 31-10-2011 10:55PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

We voted in the general election to accept our bailout otherwise Sinn Fein would be in charge.

I don't remember that question being on the ballot sheet.

Crazy Horse 6 · 31-10-2011 10:58PM

4leto wrote: »

You really don' want that to happen, what do you think the Punt Nua will be worth, fcuk all is the answer.

I could'nt give a toss. I'd rather be free and poor than rich and owned by the European elites.

Richard Hillman · 31-10-2011 10:59PM

Greece should be thrown out of the EU and the Eurozone. Let them go back to their worthless currency and turn themselves into a 3rd world country. Greece is like a country full of Joe Higgins. The communist party got 500,000 votes in the last election ffs

Toby Take a Bow · 31-10-2011 11:07PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Greece should be thrown out of the EU and the Eurozone. Let them go back to their worthless currency and turn themselves into a 3rd world country. Greece is like a country full of Joe Higgins. The communist party got 500,000 votes in the last election ffs

A country full of Joe Higgins who were so desperate to get into the EU they were cooking their books? Very odd Joe Higgins type people if that's the case.

Toby Take a Bow · 31-10-2011 11:08PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

We voted in the general election to accept our bailout otherwise Sinn Fein would be in charge.

Didn't Sinn Fein initially support the bail out?

My name is URL · 31-10-2011 11:11PM

Toby Take a Bow wrote: »

Didn't Sinn Fein initially support the bail out?

They did, and Labour are the only party to have initially opposed the precedent of government guarantees.. and look at them now!

flutered · 31-10-2011 11:11PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

True, what we need is a government that really don't want to get in government again. They'd be the only ones willing enough to piss off enough people

did we not have one who did that quite recently.

steve9859 · 31-10-2011 11:13PM

Crazy Horse 6 wrote: »

I could'nt give a toss. I'd rather be free and poor than rich and owned by the European elites.

Except that poor isn't the half of it! I'm not sure how long the government would be able to pay the teachers and the Garda and the nurses and the welfare recipients, but I don't think it is very long. There would be a social meltdown!

SEPT 23 1989 · 31-10-2011 11:16PM

The elites seem to be shocked that the people will decide

My name is URL · 31-10-2011 11:18PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

The elites seem to be shocked that the people will decide

Turkeys 1 - 0 Christmas

Crazy Horse 6 · 31-10-2011 11:20PM

steve9859 wrote: »

Except that poor isn't the half of it! I'm not sure how long the government would be able to pay the teachers and the Garda and the nurses and the welfare recipients, but I don't think it is very long. There would be a social meltdown!

Again i don't care. Everyone will need to take a huge wage cut.

Seaneh · 31-10-2011 11:26PM

We would have to revert to 2003 (i think) level of public spending...

As far as I remember, life wasn't so bad in 2003....

Hospitals were open (infact, we had more wards and beds then than we do now).
Schools were open.
The gaurds were on the street.
Children were fed.

Pompey Magnus · 31-10-2011 11:52PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Iceland is unique though.. it has a population of 320,000 and has a wealth of natural resources to help it through any rough patches. 80% of its energy comes from geothermal & hydropower.

What I want to know is how these details were seemingly forgotten by the "experts" prior to Iceland defaulting, those people who confidently warned against such a suicidal action. The consensus was that Iceland would be economically doomed for the foreseeable future and we could comfort ourselves by thinking "at least we're not Iceland". Did they just forget that Iceland had a small population and reserves of natural resources or were they simply far too confident in their own expertise on the matter?

Now these same experts are using the same warnings against similar actions in the current crisis, they confidently tell us it won't work again as Iceland was unique, however they conveniently ignore the fact that they themselves were unaware of how those factors would play out after default, hindsight is a great tool for these commentators to look like experts but the fact is that if their advice had been followed Iceland would be in a hell of a worse state than it is now.

How do we know if Ireland were to default then a year down the road these same experts wouldn't be warning, say, the Portuguese government against default by saying "Well yes it worked for Ireland but it only has a population of 4.5 million and had X,Y and Z unique factors working its favour which allow it to pull it off."

Seaneh · 31-10-2011 11:58PM

Pompey Magnus wrote: »

What I want to know is how these details were seemingly forgotten by the "experts" prior to Iceland defaulting, those people who confidently warned against such a suicidal action. The consensus was that Iceland would be economically doomed for the foreseeable future and we could comfort ourselves by thinking "at least we're not Iceland". Did they just forget that Iceland had a small population and reserves of natural resources or were they simply far too confident in their own expertise on the matter?

Now these same experts are using the same warnings against similar actions in the current crisis, they confidently tell us it won't work again as Iceland was unique, however they conveniently ignore the fact that they themselves were unaware of how those factors would play out after default, hindsight is a great tool for these commentators to look like experts but the fact is that if their advice had been followed Iceland would be in a hell of a worse state than it is now.

How do we know if Ireland were to default then a year down the road these same experts wouldn't be warning, say, the Portuguese government against default by saying "Well yes it worked for Ireland but it only has a population of 4.5 million and had X,Y and Z unique factors working its favour which allow it to pull it off."

Added to this is the fact that we will, without doubt, within the next 7 years, default on our (now) sovereign debt, it's not a case of if, it's a case of when.

Worst case scenario is that we keep kicking the can down the road and accumilating more and more debt before we finally go.

K-9 · 01-11-2011 12:19AM

Pompey Magnus wrote: »

What I want to know is how these details were seemingly forgotten by the "experts" prior to Iceland defaulting, those people who confidently warned against such a suicidal action. The consensus was that Iceland would be economically doomed for the foreseeable future and we could comfort ourselves by thinking "at least we're not Iceland". Did they just forget that Iceland had a small population and reserves of natural resources or were they simply far too confident in their own expertise on the matter?

Now these same experts are using the same warnings against similar actions in the current crisis, they confidently tell us it won't work again as Iceland was unique, however they conveniently ignore the fact that they themselves were unaware of how those factors would play out after default, hindsight is a great tool for these commentators to look like experts but the fact is that if their advice had been followed Iceland would be in a hell of a worse state than it is now.

How do we know if Ireland were to default then a year down the road these same experts wouldn't be warning, say, the Portuguese government against default by saying "Well yes it worked for Ireland but it only has a population of 4.5 million and had X,Y and Z unique factors working its favour which allow it to pull it off."

The IMF seem happy enough with Iceland, but it's hard to know. Think are hardly great there either:

Iceland: Was the IMF programme successful? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

The problem with us is we are soooooo heavily dependent on multi nationals and exports for any type of growth, comparing us to Iceland often ignores that.

As for the deficit figures, banking bail outs do tend to make them look worse. It is starting to look like the bottom of the abyss has been reached with them.

The problem we have is Capital Expenditure has made up a large part of our spending cuts, any more cuts and tax rises from now on will really hurt people in their pockets.

More tax increases and Welfare cuts and PS pay cuts are going to hit the overall economy and growth, VAT receipts are worrying already and aren't going to get any better. Tax receipts are doing okay but a lot of that is clever accounting tricks.

Exports are very important but they don't add as much jobs as the old days. It's going to be a grim couple of years to get a manageable deficit, never mind the banks.

Anyway, as for the Greeks, it seems very odd that they'd put it to referendum, surely populism got them in this mess in the first place?

x in the city · 01-11-2011 12:22AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Should we have one next!

Greece should f******************** off.

01-11-2011 12:27AM

Seaneh wrote: »

See, the myth being spouted here, and elsewhere, is that the markets won't lend to us if we refuse to pay the bank debt. This is absolute rubbish.

The reason the markets wouldn't lend to us was BECAUSE we took on the bank debt, they knew (and they still know) that we can't afford the bank debt so they backed away from us nodding and smiling.

If we removed the millstone that is the debt of private companies to other companies we could EASILY borrow the needed monies to cover our budget deficit. We would be able to borrow it at a rate we could actually afford to repay.

If we didn't have the idiocy of the bank debt to deal with we would be a infinitely more attractive proposition for private markets to lend to.

As it is we are slowly killing ourselves, we cannot afford the debt we have, we can't even afford to service the interest, we are well and turly ****ed, this is what every economist and financial expert in the world has been telling us for the past 2 years.

What would happen everyone's savings if we let banks fail?

danger mouse · 01-11-2011 12:28AM

Ghandee wrote: »

No point.

Our govt should just do whatever the fcuk they want with the bailout, because referendums don't mean Jack shít to us.

Remember the Lisbon treaty anyone :rolleyes:
]
Unless our 'vote' reflected the actual wishes of the Govt, we'd be forced to go back to the polling stations until the vote was satisfactory to the Government. If that took one hundred revote's, so be it!

I always laugh at posts like these. I know if I voted no for something i wouldn't just decide to vote yes the next time on a whim. i cant understand this part of democracy. If the people vote no why is it that the next time people just vote yes and the thing gets passed surely the same people can just stick to their guns and vote god dam no and show the government up. Why do people vote yes to something they just voted no to...Bleedin wrecks me head...lol doesn't no just mean no anymore.

dj jarvis · 01-11-2011 12:30AM

danger mouse wrote: »

I always laugh at posts like these. I know if I voted no for something i wouldn't just decide to vote yes the next time on a whim. i cant understand this part of democracy. If the people vote no why is it that the next time people just vote yes and the thing gets passed surely the same people can just stick to their guns and vote god dam no and show the government up. Why do people vote yes to something they just voted no to...Bleedin wrecks me head...lol doesn't no just mean no anymore.

depends who's riding who really

Cee-Jay-Cee · 01-11-2011 12:33AM

Why are the greeks bothering to have a referendum, they're so corrupt they'll fake whatever result suits them.

Seaneh · 01-11-2011 12:35AM

salonfire wrote: »

What would happen everyone's savings if we let banks fail?

It's going to happen anyway, so there is no point in acting like it wont.

We could have, in the beginning, guarenteed savings without guarenteeing the banks own private debt.

We could have done this again in the summer when the bank guarentee was due to expire instead of renewing it.

We could have done all these things if we had competent leaders acting in the best interests of the state, but instead we employed the same nepotism and gombeenary we have since the formation of the state and voted for a part who are identical in idology to the one it replaces, propped up by a centrist party in leftist clothing.

SafeSurfer · 01-11-2011 12:36AM

I am unconvinced that the Greeks will vote no.

If they do it is the disorderly default that the experts have been describing as the worst case scenario.

This would have enormous repercusions for the global financial system.

Ever wondered what the collapse of the global financial system would sound like?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jMBNesc-8k

danger mouse · 01-11-2011 12:39AM

CJC999 wrote: »

Why are the greeks bothering to have a referendum, they're so corrupt they'll fake whatever result suits them.

They seem like a bunch of chancers alright. At lest Ireland is paying back it's loans (a hard pill to swollow i know). It's better for ireland to stay out of the danger zone and get back to the bond markets me thinks. The quicker we get rid of the IMF and are able to borrow or own money the better. Apparently the greeks are gonna have it unbelievably bad the next 10 years.

Seaneh · 01-11-2011 12:42AM

danger mouse wrote: »

They seem like a bunch of chancers alright. At lest Ireland is paying back it's loans (a hard pill to swollow i know). It's better for ireland to stay out of the danger zone and get back to the bond markets me thinks. The quicker we get rid of the IMF and are able to borrow or own money the better. Apparently the greeks are gonna have it unbelievably bad the next 10 years.

We will NEVER be able to afford the loans form the IMF and EU.

Our growth rate is below 1%, our interest rate is above 7%.

Do the math, we can't even pay the interest, we are not a debt slave nation for the foreseeable future.

We are not paying OUR debt, we are paying the debt of private companies.

Greece will hold a referendum on bailout

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