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Greece gonna Default on Tuesday?

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Comments

  • #32
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Actually, less than 24 hours ago, before the Chinese announcement, I challenged Scofflaw on his assertion that the Chinese would continue to support Europe in this very thread. He said...not 24 hours ago...
    So we can read the same material, and I see a whole load of such claims, carefully written in a "just saying" style, or claims that something general and not all that specific will happen (bad things...in Greece, exposures...in banks), or claims that, frankly, aren't in the least contentious (China supporting the euro is a good example)
    I replied...
    Also, China supporting the Euro isn't contentious? Sure, if they buy $1m in bonds they are supporting it, but the degree if support is important. Didn't premier Wen just say that countries must get their own houses in order?

    Many took that to mean that mass bond purchases are soon coming off the table. I have no idea...but we'll soon see.

    They seem to be facing some stiff, emerging headwinds at home in their giant property bubble and all that goes with that.
    And hey presto, thanks to the reading ZH...I was able to see past the noise and realise there was a real issue here...(and that Chinese bond purchases were contentious going forward when others couldn't see it...as has today been highlighted by a flurry of announcements by the Chinese...not 24 hours after that post.

    Dear me...it's a shame you don't read me with the same attention you give ZH, but then I suppose I should hardly expect that!

    There was nothing contentious in ZH's claim that the Chinese would support the euro. That is, it was something that was generally regarded as being in China's interests, and the claim being made by ZH that China would support the euro was therefore not a claim uniquely made by ZH when all other sources were blind to the situation...despite which, it was something claimed by another fan as an "as predicted by ZH":
    As predicted by @zerohedge - China's Wen: "we will support Europe and the euro" http://goo.gl/C96dW

    http://twitter.com/#!/Scrataliano/status/84620358900133888

    Of course, what you're pointing out is that ZH was then your source for China not supporting the euro...so we have two claims about China made by ZH, and each acclaimed by its readers: (a) that China would support the euro; and (b) that China won't support the euro. The first was claimed as a ZH prediction by another blogger, the second is being claimed as a ZH prediction by you.

    Perhaps you see my problem with that? I appreciate your attempt to reconcile them by saying "ah, but what degree of support?" - when turning 180 degrees one has to go though 90 on the way, of course.

    amused,
    Scofflaw


  • #33
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Sand wrote: »
    FYI - The Greek "default" rubicon was crossed back in July. Before July people swore no Eurzone government would ever, ever, ever default. Then they did.
    Such revisionism. Of course a country can default, the argument was whether or not it would be "allowed". Nothing has changed on that score, it's still a debate over whether or not countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal will be allowed to default.


  • #34
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    so we have two claims about China made by ZH, and each acclaimed by its readers: (a) that China would support the euro; and (b) that China won't support the euro. The first was claimed as a ZH prediction by another blogger, the second is being claimed as a ZH prediction by you.
    Don't forget the other regular "prediction" on ZH, that China will not support the dollar, and everytime some minor functionary says anything vague about the US it is jumped on by the mass ranks of ZH-ites. So China, with 3 trillion in reserves, has (apparently) variously decided not to support the US dollar, or the Euro. For historical reasons, they won't want to support the Yen. They can't support the Swiss Franc.

    So instead they are currently investing their 3 trillion in, well, US dollars and Euros. Reality interferes with the doom agenda.


  • #35
    Sand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,009 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    @hmmm

    Such, such revisionism indeed.

    What a wonderful, flexiable and evolving view point.


  • #36
    Slydice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    Looks like Greece has, indeed, made the payment of €769 which appears to have helped the markets (wsj).

    Also looks like the (EU-ECB-IMF) Troika team are to return to Athens next week (reuters):
    The mission of top inspectors from Greece's international lenders will return to Athens early next week to resume its review of the country's progress in a 110 billion euro ($150 billion) bailout programme, a source close to the team said on Tuesday.

    The representatives from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank had earlier held a conference call with Greece's finance minister on steps Greece must take to receive an 8 billion euro aid tranche it needs to avoid running out of cash next month.

    The source close to the so-called troika said good progress was made during the call and technical discussions would continue in Athens in the coming days.

    Looks like this pushes back the date to October (wsj):
    SEPTEMBER 20, 2011, 4:25 P.M. ET
    Heads Of Troika Expected To Visit Greece In October -Report

    ATHENS (Dow Jones)--The heads of a troika of international inspectors are expected to arrive in Athens in early October, Greece's semi-official news agency reported Tuesday, amid signs that a deal appeared close on further austerity measures the country must take.
    (later)
    At a weekend meeting of European finance ministers in Poland, officials warned that Greece may not receive an EUR8 billion aid tranche next month if it fails to bring its budget back in line with targets. Without that aid, Greece will run out of cash by mid-October.

    Though Forbes points out there'll be a visit next week (aswell?):
    Associated Press
    EU: Debt inspectors to return to Athens next week
    By NICHOLAS PAPHITIS and GABRIELE STEINHAUSER , 09.20.11, 04:44 PM EDT

    ATHENS, Greece -- International debt inspectors will return to Greece next week to resume a review of the cash-strapped government's austerity program after making progress late Tuesday in a teleconference with the Greek finance minister,
    (but goes on to discuss a default possibility raised by the Fitch ratings agency)
    Most analysts still think the country will have to restructure its debts at some point, especially if the economy remains mired in recession. Fitch Ratings said in a report Tuesday that it expected Greece to eventually default, but to do so while remaining in the eurozone.

    That Fitch announcement is covered elsewhere (reuters):
    Greece to default but not leave euro zone - Fitch
    LONDON | Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:31pm IST

    (Reuters) - Greece will probably default but will not leave the euro zone, Fitch credit ratings agency said on Tuesday, as pressure increased on the Greek government to push through with fiscal reforms.

    International lenders told Greece on Monday it must shrink its public sector to avoid running out of money within weeks.

    While widely expected, a Greek default would further unsettle already nervous financial markets, fuelling fears a precedent had been set for other struggling euro zone states and sending yields on other peripheral bonds sharply higher.

    However, Fitch did not expect Greece to leave the euro zone, as some in markets have speculated in recent weeks.


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  • #37
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Dear me...it's a shame you don't read me with the same attention you give ZH, but then I suppose I should hardly expect that!

    There was nothing contentious in ZH's claim that the Chinese would support the euro. That is, it was something that was generally regarded as being in China's interests, and the claim being made by ZH that China would support the euro was therefore not a claim uniquely made by ZH when all other sources were blind to the situation...despite which, it was something claimed by another fan as an "as predicted by ZH":



    http://twitter.com/#!/Scrataliano/status/84620358900133888

    Of course, what you're pointing out is that ZH was then your source for China not supporting the euro...so we have two claims about China made by ZH, and each acclaimed by its readers: (a) that China would support the euro; and (b) that China won't support the euro. The first was claimed as a ZH prediction by another blogger, the second is being claimed as a ZH prediction by you.

    Perhaps you see my problem with that? I appreciate your attempt to reconcile them by saying "ah, but what degree of support?" - when turning 180 degrees one has to go though 90 on the way, of course.

    amused,
    Scofflaw

    Well...to be kind to you...events and positions change stuff...ya know.

    ZH did point out (using other sources) that China WAS buying bonds. You are perfectly correct...and so were they.

    However, their most recent position (as changes in the dynamic came to light between China and Europe regarding Chinas request to have their economy classed as a market economy...i.e. look...we've been buying your bonds. Play nice with us and we'll continue to play nice with you) was that the request by China to have Europe class their economy classed as a market economy would determine future assistance with the mess Europe is in. ZH argues that this was an effort by the Chinese to isolate the US. Not sure if this is true or not.

    And now we know that Europe haven't reclassed the Chinese economy and the Chinese have substantially withdrawn from not only bond purchases...but also business with European banks.

    Ofcourse, the Chinese stated today that the two weren't linked. But then they would, wouldn't they. Instead they kinda stuck the knife in, saying Europe was risky.

    I know its a lot to follow...but that was basically the ZH position over this matter...summary as follows

    1. Chinas was buying bonds in a big way recently...to build political capital for step two...
    2. China wants their economy classed by Europe as a market economy...and ZH said the implicit threat was that they would withdraw from future, meaningful bond purchases unless Europe complied. I didn't buy that argument BTW...I thought that their domestic situation would be enough to make them withdraw...but looks like I was wrong and this looks like a key move on the chess board to try to isolate the US...but Europe didn't take the bait.
    3. The Europeans called their bluff. Stuck to the US position.
    5. China stuck the knife in as they left the building today...calling Europe "risky" and pulling out of business with weakened French banks.

    Equally...I suppose it is difficult for you to accept that Chinas buying bonds now seems just a highly contentious...rather than your position yesterday of not at all contentious?

    Still, don't expect you to address that last point.


  • #38
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    hmmm wrote: »
    Don't forget the other regular "prediction" on ZH, that China will not support the dollar, and everytime some minor functionary says anything vague about the US it is jumped on by the mass ranks of ZH-ites. So China, with 3 trillion in reserves, has (apparently) variously decided not to support the US dollar, or the Euro. For historical reasons, they won't want to support the Yen. They can't support the Swiss Franc.

    Could you show me the post where they said that "China won't support the dollar?"

    I have read on multiple occassions on ZH excellent pieces which dissect the nature of international trade which makes it impossible for the Chinese NOT to support the dollar.

    Put simply, for trade surpluses the size of Chinas, and with a desire to peg the RMB to the dollar...(in an effort to keep their export machine working) they LITERALLY have no choice. No other market is both big enough to absorb the trade surpluses and achieve the peg.

    You really think the US would hate the Chinese to stop buying dollars? The RMB would move in precisely the way the US wants it to move if that were to happen. You get that various members of the US govt have been calling China a currency manipulator...right?

    I suggest you read this for an overview of why what you are saying is, quite literally, impossible in view of Chinas goal of a dollar peg and the gargantuan trade surpluses. Published...you know where! ;)

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/idea-china-to-stop-buying-treasuries.html
    So instead they are currently investing their 3 trillion in, well, US dollars and Euros. Reality interferes with the doom agenda.

    Indeed. So you didn't hear that they basically walked away from Europe yesterday...and slammed to door behind them?

    FYI, I think many young people in Greece and Ireland feel precisely what can be described as a sense of doom. Have you how many people are leaving Ireland now?

    Have you seen the spike in suicide rates?

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfgbauojidsn/rss2/

    Ultimate doom. Maybe you knew some of these young people? I'm sure plenty of people reading this did.

    Any other feckin' smart-arse comments?


  • #39
    Slydice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    Looks like the Greek government has decided to try playing ball with the (EU,ECB,IMF) troika (forbes):
    Associated Press - Greek government announces new austerity blitz
    By NICHOLAS PAPHITIS and DEREK GATOPOULOS , 09.21.11, 04:43 PM EDT

    ATHENS, Greece -- Austerity-fatigued Greeks were slapped with new tax hikes and pension cuts Wednesday, while the government also pledged to suspend 30,000 civil servants in a hectic scramble to keep its bailout payments flowing and soothe global market fears that Greece will go bust.
    (later)
    monthly pensions will be cut by 20 percent above a euro1,200 ($1,636) threshold, while retirees aged under 55 will lose 40 percent of their pensions above the sum of euro1,000.

    I wonder if they are trying to test the publics reaction in advanced on the troika return visit (next week or the following I think?).

    The FT article on it kinda hints in that direction:
    September 21, 2011 8:19 pm
    Greece unveils further austerity measures By Dimitris Kontogiannis in Athens
    The Greek government on Wednesday unveiled drastic new austerity measures including swingeing cuts to pensions and public sector salaries
    (later)
    “The discussions with the troika will be completed after the arrival of inspectors early next week,” Ilias Mossialos, a government spokesman, said after the cabinet meeting which lasted more than 6 hours.

    But the new austerity measures came under attack almost immediately from the conservative opposition New Democracy party leading the polls, showing there was little scope for political consensus. The conservatives called the measures unfair and attributed them to the economic policy followed by the government.

    It seems the market is still expecting a default but maybe an orderly one (reuters):
    Analysis: Planning for Greek debt default gathering pace? By Luke Baker
    BRUSSELS | Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:23am EDT

    (Reuters) - Euro zone leaders may reject the notion of a "Greek default." But private sector economists and political analysts are largely agreed that it is only a matter of time.
    (later)
    One finance expert who is advising governments on preparing for a Greek default says the major economies in the euro zone are ready for it, even if they are not yet actively courting it.

    Then, the guardian interestingly asks what about us (Ireland) when Greece defaults:
    What happens to Ireland if Greece defaults?
    Posted by Megan Greene Wednesday 21 September 2011 11.05
    With more job losses feared at Aviva, guest economist Megan Greene believes Ireland will have few practical options if Athens exits the euro
    and some selected quotes:
    - "As long as EU leaders remain committed to the euro project, Ireland should stay the course and continue to implement the terms of the bailout programme."
    - "This would mean Ireland would be unable to raise the requisite funding over the next two years in the markets."
    - "there is a very small risk that EU leaders - faced with angry electorates sick of bailouts and austerity - could choose to hang Ireland out to dry and allow the eurozone to unravel."
    - "Ireland would find itself cut off from EU/IMF funding and frozen out of the markets at a time when it would need money immediately. This hardly seems like something the government should choose.

    A leader would only decide to accept such costs in extremis, with the most likely spur being domestic social unrest. This is extremely unlikely in Ireland. Unlike in Greece, where protesters regularly descend on Syntagma Square in central Athens, the Irish public is largely resigned to the terms of the bailout programme."


  • #40
    View
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    Slydice wrote: »
    Now, a couple of websites are reporting that "Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors, who is one of the best tea leaf readers in the trading world" reckons that Greece will default on Tuesday. Here they are:
    http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/09/from-the-desk-of-peter-tchir-is-september-20th-greek-default-day/
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-20-greek-default-day

    What do you think?

    That "one of the best tea leaf readers in the trading world" got it wrong? Or was this a "They might at some future date possibly, maybe, default on a Tuesday (rather than over the weekend) but when I don't know" prediction?

    I suppose the thing we really should be alarmed about is the possibility that "the trading world" might be acting based on tea leaf reading but somehow that wouldn't surprise me at all...


  • #41
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Slydice wrote: »
    Then, the guardian interestingly asks what about us (Ireland) when Greece defaults: and some selected quotes:
    - "As long as EU leaders remain committed to the euro project, Ireland should stay the course and continue to implement the terms of the bailout programme."
    - "This would mean Ireland would be unable to raise the requisite funding over the next two years in the markets."
    - "there is a very small risk that EU leaders - faced with angry electorates sick of bailouts and austerity - could choose to hang Ireland out to dry and allow the eurozone to unravel."
    - "Ireland would find itself cut off from EU/IMF funding and frozen out of the markets at a time when it would need money immediately. This hardly seems like something the government should choose.

    A leader would only decide to accept such costs in extremis, with the most likely spur being domestic social unrest. This is extremely unlikely in Ireland. Unlike in Greece, where protesters regularly descend on Syntagma Square in central Athens, the Irish public is largely resigned to the terms of the bailout programme."


    wow, that is selective quoting. Take these three paragraphs together and read them. they paint a very different picture to the selective quotes.

    "The lack of social unrest is not the only way in which the Irish case differs significantly from that of Greece. While the bailout programme clearly is not working in Greece, it is in Ireland.
    According to the European Commission's Summer 2011 Review of the Irish bailout programme, Ireland is on track to meet and even exceed some of its targets. The European Commission now forecasts that Ireland's budget deficit will be reduced to 10.2% of GDP in 2011, below the bailout programme target of 10.6%.
    Beyond fiscal consolidation, Ireland's current account has swung into surplus, and there are indications that the country has gained competitiveness since 2008. In the second quarter of 2011, hourly unit labour costs fell by 3.6% in Ireland, compared with 3.5% in Greece and 0.8% in Portugal (they rose by an average 3.6% across the eurozone)."

    As I have said before, I am now convinced that we can get out of our mess. For a time, I did wonder whether it was possible. Now that we can, the only question is whether we will. That depends both on our friends in Europe continuing to support us and our own efforts to get down the deficit.


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  • #42
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,152 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    If Ireland were to exist the euro what would be the effects on domestic interest rates and existing mortgages?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • #43
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    If Ireland exited the Euro, no one really knows precisely what would happen. This is what I think would happen...
    1. If the Euro still existed, your mortgage would still be in Euros at the prevailing Euro interest rate. Re-mortgaging would probably change this.
    2. If we moved to a new punt, it would almost certainly be substantially devalued compared to the Euro...perhaps by as much as 50%.
    3. This alone means, your mortgage costs would rise, assuming your wages didn't in new punts. It is unlikely wages would rise as much as the new punt fell versus the Euro, so your true cost of carry goes up as a percentage of your income.
    4. Interest rates would without doubt shoot up for new punt borrowers...quickly and very substantially.
    But...it isn't all doom and gloom...Irish exports would become much more competitive...and imports more expensive...which would trigger an upward surge in exports and in the domestic consumption of Irish produced goods...and this should theoretically hasten the recovery and drive down unemployment, all other things being equal (which they wont be!)...but make no mistake, exit from the Euro will be incredibly painful for a while.

    It took Iceland 3 years to be able to return to the bond markets.

    I'd expect a similar time-line in Ireland...but growth could resume faster than this I think...(unless our major trading partners are FUBAR...which is a possibility).

    Edited to say: I genuinely believe that Foreign direct investment would surge. Companies are not the bond markets. Smart companies know that Ireland is a great place to do business...even though our politicians really messed up with the banking sector.


  • #44
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Amberman wrote: »
    If Ireland exited the Euro, no one really knows precisely what would happen. This is what I think would happen...
    1. If the Euro still existed, your mortgage would still be in Euros at the prevailing Euro interest rate. Re-mortgaging would probably change this.
    2. If we moved to a new punt, it would almost certainly be substantially devalued compared to the Euro...perhaps by as much as 50%.
    3. This alone means, your mortgage costs would rise, assuming your wages didn't in new punts. It is unlikely wages would rise as much as the new punt fell versus the Euro, so your true cost of carry goes up as a percentage of your income.
    4. Interest rates would without doubt shoot up for new punt borrowers...quickly and very substantially.
    But...it isn't all doom and gloom...Irish exports would become much more competitive...and imports more expensive...which would trigger an upward surge in exports and in the domestic consumption of Irish produced goods...and this should theoretically hasten the recovery and drive down unemployment, all other things being equal (which they wont be!)...but make no mistake, exit from the Euro will be incredibly painful for a while.

    It took Iceland 3 years to be able to return to the bond markets.

    I'd expect a similar time-line in Ireland...but growth could resume faster than this I think...(unless our major trading partners are FUBAR...which is a possibility).

    Edited to say: I genuinely believe that Foreign direct investment would surge. Companies are not the bond markets. Smart companies know that Ireland is a great place to do business...even though our politicians really messed up with the banking sector.


    Incredibly optimistic. Iceland did not have the same level of personal debt held by its citizens. Our property bubble was the biggest in the world. Those two factors alone mean it would take over a decade for this country to recover from a euro exit. The current policies should see a sustained recovery begin in three to four years. As for FDI, the currency stability with our main trading partners is one of the key attractors. We would be lucky to see any FDI for at least three years as companies waited to see what else happens.


  • #45
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Godge wrote: »
    Amberman wrote: »
    If Ireland exited the Euro, no one really knows precisely what would happen. This is what I think would happen...
    1. If the Euro still existed, your mortgage would still be in Euros at the prevailing Euro interest rate. Re-mortgaging would probably change this.
    2. If we moved to a new punt, it would almost certainly be substantially devalued compared to the Euro...perhaps by as much as 50%.
    3. This alone means, your mortgage costs would rise, assuming your wages didn't in new punts. It is unlikely wages would rise as much as the new punt fell versus the Euro, so your true cost of carry goes up as a percentage of your income.
    4. Interest rates would without doubt shoot up for new punt borrowers...quickly and very substantially.
    But...it isn't all doom and gloom...Irish exports would become much more competitive...and imports more expensive...which would trigger an upward surge in exports and in the domestic consumption of Irish produced goods...and this should theoretically hasten the recovery and drive down unemployment, all other things being equal (which they wont be!)...but make no mistake, exit from the Euro will be incredibly painful for a while.

    It took Iceland 3 years to be able to return to the bond markets.

    I'd expect a similar time-line in Ireland...but growth could resume faster than this I think...(unless our major trading partners are FUBAR...which is a possibility).

    Edited to say: I genuinely believe that Foreign direct investment would surge. Companies are not the bond markets. Smart companies know that Ireland is a great place to do business...even though our politicians really messed up with the banking sector.


    Incredibly optimistic. Iceland did not have the same level of personal debt held by its citizens. Our property bubble was the biggest in the world. Those two factors alone mean it would take over a decade for this country to recover from a euro exit. The current policies should see a sustained recovery begin in three to four years. As for FDI, the currency stability with our main trading partners is one of the key attractors. We would be lucky to see any FDI for at least three years as companies waited to see what else happens.

    I think he is highlighing the massive dangers of leaving the euro balanced with the moderate benefits.


  • #46
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    Godge wrote: »
    Incredibly optimistic. Iceland did not have the same level of personal debt held by its citizens. Our property bubble was the biggest in the world.

    Wow...I can do this all day. Wrong again. China and Australia are NOW bigger on an income multiple basis. Not sure about Canada. Japans WAS vastly bigger in the 80's.
    Those two factors alone mean it would take over a decade for this country to recover from a euro exit.

    What do you mean by "recover"? See GDP ticking upwards or get back to pre-bust levels?
    The current policies should see a sustained recovery begin in three to four years.

    Can you show me an example where such deep austerity has worked in such a short time period inside a currency union?
    As for FDI, the currency stability with our main trading partners is one of the key attractors. We would be lucky to see any FDI for at least three years as companies waited to see what else happens.

    All companies would wait to see what happens? I doubt it. Even during the depths of the Great depression, investment decisions were still made.

    Maybe some CEO's would simply shift production from high cost to low cost countries (of which Ireland would be one under the scenario outlined) to cope with shrinking margins.

    Is that possible?


  • #47
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Amberman wrote:
    Equally...I suppose it is difficult for you to accept that Chinas buying bonds now seems just a highly contentious...rather than your position yesterday of not at all contentious?

    Still, don't expect you to address that last point.

    You don't seem to notice when I did, but there we go. The point I made was that the claim wasn't contentious when ZH made it, because it was something a large number of observers and analysts agreed would happen. That the bond-buying programme wasn't contentious within China is not something I said at all, and would be entirely irrelevant to the point I was making, which was that a lot of what ZH fans claims as exclusive ZH insights aren't.

    To put it another way - ZH claimed that the Chinese were going to support the euro. That is something that would be contentious in China, obviously. But if many other analysts also believed that China would support the euro, which they did, then there is nothing contentious about the claim that was made by ZH - which is what I said.

    I can see where your confusion arises, but I'm afraid it's your confusion, not mine.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • #48
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    You don't seem to notice when I did, but there we go. The point I made was that the claim wasn't contentious when ZH made it, because it was something a large number of observers and analysts agreed would happen. That the bond-buying programme wasn't contentious within China is not something I said at all, and would be entirely irrelevant to the point I was making, which was that a lot of what ZH fans claims as exclusive ZH insights aren't.

    To put it another way - ZH claimed that the Chinese were going to support the euro. That is something that would be contentious in China, obviously. But if many other analysts also believed that China would support the euro, which they did, then there is nothing contentious about the claim that was made by ZH - which is what I said.

    I can see where your confusion arises, but I'm afraid it's your confusion, not mine.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    I said that ZH claimed that, or any other statement was an exclusive to them? When? They are feckin news aggregator in a big portion of their stories...OMG...lol!

    I didn't mention ZH when I questioned your claim that bond buying was contentious.
    Also, China supporting the Euro isn't contentious? Sure, if they buy $1m in bonds they are supporting it, but the degree if support is important. Didn't premier Wen just say that countries must get their own houses in order?

    Many took that to mean that mass bond purchases are soon coming off the table. I have no idea...but we'll soon see.

    They seem to be facing some stiff, emerging headwinds at home in their giant property bubble and all that goes with that.

    Please show me in that statement where I said ZH was claimed that statement as an exclusive?

    You LITERALLY said that China supporting the Euro wasn't contentious...Not inside, outside, left, right, up, down...wasn't contentious...FULL STOP.
    claims that, frankly, aren't in the least contentious (China supporting the euro is a good example)

    i.e. China will continute to support the Euro......and you have been proven to be completely wrong. The fact that I said the pressure was internal makes not a jot of difference to your statement.
    That the bond-buying programme wasn't contentious within China is not something I said at all.

    No one said you did. :confused:

    wasn't contentious...FULL STOP. THATS what you said.

    I'm not confused...I'm crystal clear. I beginning to think you're routinely high!


  • #49
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Amberman wrote: »
    I said that ZH claimed that, or any other statement was an exclusive to them? When? They are feckin news aggregator in a big portion of their stories...OMG...lol!

    I didn't mention ZH when I questioned your claim that bond buying was contentious.

    Please show me in that statement where I said ZH was claimed that statement as an exclusive?

    I didn't say you did - I said that many of the claims made by ZH were non-contentious (that is, again, not disputed by other analysts) yet were claimed as "as predicted on ZH". I said it because the China claim is one I know to have been claimed by someone else (and again, I did say it was someone else) as an "as predicted by ZH", whereas it was actually "as predicted fairly generally by most analysts".
    Amberman wrote: »
    You LITERALLY said that China supporting the Euro wasn't contentious...Not inside, outside, left, right, up, down...wasn't contentious...FULL STOP.

    No, I didn't literally say that, but I can see that's not going in. This is exactly what I said:
    There was nothing contentious in ZH's claim that the Chinese would support the euro. That is, it was something that was generally regarded as being in China's interests, and the claim being made by ZH that China would support the euro was therefore not a claim uniquely made by ZH when all other sources were blind to the situation...despite which, it was something claimed by another fan as an "as predicted by ZH":

    Nothing in there about whether the Chinese would have any difficulty supporting the euro. No comment is made on the accuracy of the claim at all, only on whether it was disputed by other analysts. You appear to have read no further than the first sentence, or not realised that the second sentence refers to the first and explains what is meant by "not contentious" - although the "that is..." is a fairly standard piece of grammar indicating that the following sentence refers to, and explains, the first.
    Amberman wrote: »
    i.e. China will continute to support the Euro......and you have been proven to be completely wrong. The fact that I said the pressure was internal makes not a jot of difference to your statement.

    Indeed it doesn't, but that's because it's completely irrelevant.
    Amberman wrote: »
    No one said you did. :confused:

    wasn't contentious...FULL STOP. THATS what you said.

    I'm not confused...I'm crystal clear. I beginning to think you're routinely high!

    And I'm beginning to think that perhaps 90% of what I say is lost on you, but there we go. Anyway, you apparently haven't got even a vague a handle on what I said, and I've now explained it four or five different ways without you grasping it, when I didn't think it was particularly complex in the first place, so I guess we'd better move on.

    politely,
    Scofflaw


  • #50
    Amberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Amberman


    Please...becuase I think you may have alzheimers.


  • #51
    Dr Galen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,373 ✭✭✭Dr Galen


    Amberman wrote: »
    Please...becuase I think you may have alzheimers.

    This sort of thing really isn't needed and crosses the line into abusing other posters.



    Cheers

    DrG


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  • #52
    Slydice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    News articles on Greece (while still being in a high number) seem to be relatively fewer than the last few days.

    There doesn't seem to have been a big protest about the new Greek austerity measures which have been developing in order to get their next bailout (reuters):
    Analysis: Greek austerity plan hinges on implementation
    By Michael Winfrey and Karolina Tagaris - ATHENS | Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:07pm EDT

    (Reuters) - Athens' strategy of adopting more austerity measures has bought enough time and money to stave off bankruptcy for now, but high risks to its implementation mean the plan may fall short of preventing a default that would undermine the euro zone.

    The steps signaled a realization in the government, which has struggled against public anger and resistance in its own ranks over reforms, that it needed to convince the "troika" of the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank of its seriousness.
    (later)
    Unions have rekindled protests, raising the specter of June's bloody clashes with police, when a political crisis over the EU/IMF-prescribed reforms caused a rift in the ruling party and almost triggered default.

    And even if public outrage is not enough by itself to prevent Prime Minister George Papandreou's ruling Socialists from passing the measures, the debate may be heated.

    Still though, Greek Default still seems to be in the medias focus (FT):
    September 22, 2011 7:58 pm - Eurozone: Debt crisis deepens on Greek default fears
    By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

    For Jean-Claude Trichet there will be no gentle wind-down before his retirement. The eurozone debt crisis has assumed a punishing intensity in recent months, stretching the skills of even veterans of financial market crises such as the European Central Bank president.

    As he prepares to step down on October 31, the future of Europe’s monetary union remains unclear. Possibilities that even a few months appeared slim are no longer ruled out.
    ACROSS THE ZONE

    Member states’ finances dissected

    German politicians speculate openly about Greece defaulting or even leaving the eurozone.

    Two financial figures have come out today to say they think Greece will default and maybe in the coming weeks (wsj and bloomberg) :
    SEPTEMBER 22, 2011, 12:02 P.M. ET Greenspan: Greece Could Default In Coming Weeks Without Tranche
    By Anjali Cordeiro

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that markets are signaling worries that something could "break" and it appears that Greece could default in coming weeks without a new tranche of money.
    (and)
    Morgan Stanley’s Roach Tells CNBC That Greece Will Default
    By Scott Hamilton - Sep 22, 2011 1:00 PM GMT

    Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said the Greek government will probably default on its debt.

    “Greece will default” and while that event is “pretty close” to being priced into financial markets, the consequences of that are not, Roach said in an interview on CNBC today. “I don’t think we have a clear sense of what the whole web of counterparty risk is in the event of a Greek default.”

    There again, the EU Commissioner Olli Rehn says a Greek default would have a spillover effect and so won't happen (bloomberg and wsj):
    Rehn Says Greek Default Would Have ‘Spillovers’ on World Economy
    By Jones Hayden - Sep 22, 2011 3:29 PM GMT

    European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said “an uncontrolled default” by Greece would have “serious spillovers” on the global economy.
    (and)
    SEPTEMBER 22, 2011, 10:33 A.M. ET
    UPDATE: EU Rehn: Will Not Allow Greek Default, Euro-Zone Exit

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The European Union will support Greece, but the debt-stricken country needs to do more to implement the promises it has made, the EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs said Thursday.

    "An uncontrolled default or exit of Greece from the euro zone would cause enormous economic and social damage, not only to Greece but to the European Union as a whole, and have serious spillovers to the world economy," Olli Rehn said according to the text of his speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington. "We will not let this happen."

    Finally, one article seems to suggest that Greece may be currently making things worse for themselves (wsj):
    SEPTEMBER 22, 2011, 5:13 P.M. ET
    Greek Bond Exchange Has Surprise Upside - By STEPHEN FIDLER

    In the continuing drama over whether Greece will get the next slice of rescue funds from its official creditors, another critical financial test has been temporarily forgotten: the country's plan to exchange old government bonds for new. As Greece's disputes with its lenders have intensified, the bond exchange has looked a better and better deal for investors.
    (later)
    The idea is to reduce the amount of Greek public debt maturing between now and 2020, pushing those maturities into the future. But it does nothing to bring down the government's mountainous debt, equivalent to 166% of gross domestic product this year, and rising. In fact, the opposite: "The deal literally increases Greece's debt burden, making an unsustainable debt even more unsustainable," says Adam Lerrick, a debt restructuring expert at the American Enterprise Institute.


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