Greece gonna Default on Tuesday?

Slydice

So, you all might have heard about Greece and it possibly defaulting. A big indicator this is it's bond yield. Here are links to it's [ 1 Year ], [ 3 Year ] and [ 10 Year ] bond yields (courtesy of the bloomberg website).

The bond yield curve is the relation between the interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity of the debt (wikipedia).

A high-yield bond (non-investment-grade bond, speculative-grade bond, or junk bond) is a bond that is rated below investment grade at the time of purchase. These bonds have a higher risk of default (wikipedia).

I gather that the higher the yield, the closer a country is to default. Also, that yield numbers are pretty close to that countries probability of default.

Just now, the yields shown on thoses links I gave above say:
1 year: 110
3 year: 43
10 year: 21

So, that looks like Greeces is virtually guaranteed to default soon (as the 1 year yield almost says it's 110% likely)

The EU Finance Ministers had been due in Poland to try and work something out and then the Greek Prime Minister was due to go to America to talk to the head of their treasury and head of the IMF.

But, it looks like the EU Finance Ministers meeting didn't go well and then that the Greek Prime Minister did a last minute cancel of his trip to America.

Now, a couple of websites are reporting that "Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors, who is one of the best tea leaf readers in the trading world" reckons that Greece will default on Tuesday. Here they are:
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/09/from-the-desk-of-peter-tchir-is-september-20th-greek-default-day/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-20-greek-default-day

Basically, he looks to be saying that if they are gonna default, Tuesday would be a good day. It reads like he's saying it would mean they wouldn't pay out a chunky 1 Billion euro payment to some bondholders ("burn the bondholders", I think it's called) on that day.

What do you think?

books4sale

Slydice wrote: »

What do you think?

I think yer blowin' sh*t through the pipe dude...what's your agenda?

Those 2 websites you quote ....those are regular Joe opinions... what kind of substantial source of info. is that?

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/201...k-default-day/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/septem...ek-default-day

Bit like me using this forum as a source of info when at the best times....it makes for some amusing fictious reading...just like your post.

Anyway, good luck with your crusade, come Wednesday, there'll be no changes.

I'll be right.....and well ...you should probably get a new user name and spout on about the collapse of the Euro or some other doomsday scenario.

Protecting the world against another numpty...Books4sale.

Slydice

looks like it's quietened down a bit except for the greek finance ministry coming out to deny it:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/215608/20110917/eu-finance-ministers-take-stock-of-progress-on-debt-crisis.htm

Greece's finance minister on Saturday dismissed talk that the debt-strapped country was headed for default, while saying Prime Minister George Papandreou canceled a trip to the United States because tough decisions had to be made imminently.

"The comments and analyses about an imminent default or bankruptcy are not only irresponsible but also ridiculous," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement.

"Every weekend Greece ... is subject to this organized attack by speculators in international markets," he added.

Venizelos said Papandreou decided to return to Athens not because of an economic emergency but because the government had to take tough decisions as talks resume with its international lenders before a next bailout tranche is released.

Amberman

books4sale wrote: »

I think yer blowin' sh*t through the pipe dude...what's your agenda?

Those 2 websites you quote ....those are regular Joe opinions... what kind of substantial source of info. is that?

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/201...k-default-day/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/septem...ek-default-day

Bit like me using this forum as a source of info when at the best times....it makes for some amusing fictious reading...just like your post.

Anyway, good luck with your crusade, come Wednesday, there'll be no changes.

I'll be right.....and well ...you should probably get a new user name and spout on about the collapse of the Euro or some other doomsday scenario.

Protecting the world against another numpty...Books4sale.

Well, he also used the bond markets as a source of info...which as Soros said, have an infallible way of predicting the future...because they create it...as we have already seen.

Does Greece default on Tuesday? I have no idea if Tuesday is the day...but default they will at some point...preparations are already well underway for that event.

Amberman

PS - The two sites he mentioned are widely read and very highly regarded by traders...zerohedge being arguably the most highly regarded trading blog out there.

Maybe you should pop over and have a read for yourself? It is informative, thought provoking and very entertaining.

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

Well, he also used the bond markets as a source of info...which as Soros said, have an infallible way of predicting the future...because they create it...as we have already seen.

Does Greece default on Tuesday? I have no idea if Tuesday is the day...but default they will at some point...preparations are already well underway for that event.

Amberman

PS - The two sites he mentioned are widely read and very highly regarded by traders...zerohedge being arguably the most highly regarded trading blog out there.

Maybe you should pop over and have a read for yourself? It is informative, thought provoking and very entertaining.

zerohedge could also be described - and has been, repeatedly - as full of conspiracy theorists, and as having a relentlessly apocalyptic world-view. Its analysis is intellectually underpinned by the theory that Goldman Sachs 'graduates' form a powerful and secret cabal that dominates global finance, and the longed-for apocalypse is the destruction of their influence and a huge reset of the global financial system that ushers in a golden age of truly free capitalism. Hence the "Tyler Durden" pseudonym.

The blog has predicted the end of capitalism as we know it roughly once a fortnight for the last 3 years or so. Presumably Goldman Sachs read zerohedge, which allows them to consistently foil the financial Rapture - further proof of their evil, probably.

Something in general to consider in reading any 'trading' source is that you're hearing the voices of people who make their money out of rapid market movements, and who therefore regard even the smallest of those movements as vitally important and incredibly meaningful - after all, otherwise they'd just be gamblers betting on white noise. Most trading sources have the attention span of a goldfish, likely to switch from positive to negative "analysis" several times over the course of the week - zerohedge stands out for its relative consistency, even if that consistency does stem from an underlying conspiracy theory.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Debtocracy

Scofflaw wrote: »

zerohedge could also be described - and has been, repeatedly - as full of conspiracy theorists, and as having a relentlessly apocalyptic world-view.

Yeh some of conspiracy theories on this website are ridiculous. Here are some of my favourites:

1. High levels of public and private debt (Debt Saturation) will stifle economic growth within Western economies, with the problem not being solved by adding more debt.
2. Western governments face an insolvency rather than a liquidity crisis.
3. The U.S. government will severely devalue the dollar (relative to hard assets) in an effort to stave off a depression.
4. Commodities prices will rise due to an expansion in the dollar money supply and peak resources. Stagflation will occur as the wages of the middle classes and lower will not increase correspondingly.

I don’t know what those guys at Zerohedge are drinking? Next they'll be claiming that that Johnny Giles owns the ECB or that European banks are too highly leveraged.

Cork boy 55

Strauss-Kahn in first tV-interview since maidgate says everyone must accept losses on Greece,

Going to happen someday.

“They can’t pay,” Strauss-Kahn said in his first interview since charges of assaulting a Manhattan hotel maid were dropped. “The efforts of European leaders have been too little, or too late, or often both too little and too late.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-18/strauss-kahn-says-everyone-must-accept-losses-on-greece.html

Scofflaw

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Strauss-Kahn in first tV-interview since maidgate says everyone must accept losses on Greece,

Going to happen someday.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-18/strauss-kahn-says-everyone-must-accept-losses-on-greece.html

Sure - they've had at least one restructuring already.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Slydice

Ok, so it looks like there's a teleconference on tomorrow between the Greek finance minister and the heads of the troika (EU/IMF/ECB):
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/greece-troika-idUSA8E7K802L20110916

There was a statement earlier by the Greek Finance Minister where he finished with:

Following tomorrow’s discussion with the troika, the governmental committee will convene again and analyze all the decisions that move, in any case, within this safe and clear framework which I now present before you, which at the same time constitutes the decision of the governmental committee.

So, it looks like they are only looking at non default options. Also, they that they will have their meeting and we might get some indications on whether anything (default related or not) will happen soon.


Meanwhile, it looks like some predict further austerity will happen in Greece:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/18/business-eu-greece-financial-crisis_8686266.html

Greek minister: focus on spending cuts in 2012
Associated Press, 09.18.11, 02:29 PM EDT

ATHENS, Greece -- Greece's finance minister says the country will focus on expenditure cuts in 2012 but does not exclude imposing new taxes this year to plug a hole in the 2011 budget.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/18/us-greece-economy-idUSTRE78H19R20110918

Greece braces for more austerity to avert default
By George Georgiopoulos and Dina Kyriakidou
ATHENS | Sun Sep 18, 2011 5:21pm EDT

(Reuters) - Greece on Sunday pledged to take the tough decisions needed to avoid default but announced no new austerity measures to secure international bailout funds next month.

Then, at the same time, others predict Default to happen soon:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/business/global/19iht-euro19.html

Greece Nears a Tipping Point in Its Debt Crisis
By JACK EWING
Published: September 18, 2011

(later)

“Greece’s imminent default is assured,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, wrote in an e-mail Sunday. “Without an injection of cash within the next weeks, the nation will run out of resources to service its debt.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dimitri-b-papadimitriou/endgame-for-the-euro_b_968623.html

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
President, Levy Institute; Executive vice president and Jerome Levy Professor of Economics, Bard College

Endgame for the Euro - Posted: 9/18/11 02:16 PM ET

(later)

Meanwhile, the ECB is keeping the show on the road by making even more austerity demands.

Despite this climate of denial, the tottering Greek government is going to fall and -- Presto! -- a complete default will follow.

and of course, it seems that zerohedge is being consistent:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dsk-says-greece-done

DSK Says Greece Is Done
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2011 15:22 -0400

Funny how all it takes for people to tell the truth is to no longer be part of the status quo.

(later)

From Bloomberg:

STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS GREECE CAN'T PAY BACK ITS DEBTS
STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS EVERYONE MUST ACCEPT LOSSES ON GREECE

And in other news...

STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS HE WON'T RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF FRANCE

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Its analysis is intellectually underpinned by the theory that Goldman Sachs 'graduates' form a powerful and secret cabal that dominates global finance

Some of it's analysis is...I agree.

Consider that Ex-GS people are in the US treasury, the ECB, most central banks, most influential think tanks...and they HAVE ALREADY paid off 100 cents on the dollar to AIG CDS liabilities, some of which found it's way back to GS.

However, their political and regulatory capturing looting spree may soon be at an end...Blankfein is panicking right now and is worried about jail time if his recent hiring of a top lawyer is anything to go by.

They pretty much shafted the Eurozone via Greece, they sold their clients "crap" and then betted against it, they are being taken to court by many money managers, robosigning etc etc.

While I wouldn't call it a secret cabal (because its not secret and its not a cabal), I would say that there is compelling evidence of fraud, collusion, manipulation and deceit at very high levels inside GS ...and that ex GS alums act in ways which favour GS at the expense of their current employer.

Who knows what levels of soft commissions (insider knowledge, offshore payments, envelopes of cash etc) are passed to ex GS alums for work they put the way of their ex-employer? I sure as hell don't...but I know for a fact they happen in financial services.

Hardly a conspiracy (they make no real effort to hide it), more like a closely linked network of capitalist self interest...and to be honest with you, I wish I worked at Goldman Sachs...because fools and their money deserve to be parted in a casino...GS just fulfills that role in the food chain and has built the political clout to do it with little risk to themselves (so far...though this may be changing).

I have immense admiration for GS. They are the apex capitalists on the planet. They play the cards they are dealt very well...and its their game...Good luck to them I say.

As for the ZH end game scenario...meh...all Fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value. This is usually not a good time.

This is an underlying theme on ZH...and quite rightly so.

Slydice

Looks like tomorrow is being made out to be another Greek make or break day.

For tomorrows discussion, the Greeks seem optimistic - (Reuters):

Greece hopes to clinch aid tranche deal by Tues: source
ATHENS | Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:48pm EDT

(Reuters) - Greece hopes to conclude an agreement with its international lenders on Tuesday so it can receive an 8 billion euro ($11 billion) aid tranche slated for October, a finance ministry official told Reuters on Monday.

"The climate was better than we expected," the official said

I'm not sure though, government officials always seem to be optimistic about their own countries.

Looks like there are worries spreading in the market about what is being discussed between Greece and the Troika (EU+ECB+IMF) - (wsj)

SEPTEMBER 19, 2011, 4:54 P.M. ET
Greece Eyes Fresh Cuts as Default Fears Grow
By ALKMAN GRANITSAS And STELIOS BOURAS

ATHENS—Greece's government scrambled Monday to meet conditions for a fresh infusion of official aid, as worries about a looming default further undermined sentiment in financial markets across the globe.

Stock markets went into retreat in Europe, with the Paris bourse falling by 3% and Germany's by 2.8%, and government bond prices slid across most of the euro zone. The U.S. and most Asian stock markets sank under Greek-induced gloom, while the euro also fell.

The worries might be from uncertainty about Greek reactions to demands being made of them - (ft):

September 19, 2011 9:58 pm
Lenders harden their stance on Athens
By Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Dimitris Kontogiannis in Athens

Greek authorities made a fresh attempt on Monday to convince international lenders they had a credible plan to close a growing financing gap, amid signs negotiators were hardening their line over a €8bn aid payment that Athens needs in three weeks to prevent it running out of cash.

The Greek proposal, made in a conference call with heads of the so-called troika of European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders, came after a German-led group of European creditor countries made clear they were unsatisfied with measures unveiled just last week.

So, only the market seems to be indicating a worry of default. All discussions seems to point to optimism from the participants but some hard lining from people who are owed money.

hmmm

After tomorrow passes, will someone volunteer to start the 3rd Greece default day ZH thread? Because at this stage they're pulling dates from a hat. Plus no-one seems to have noticed that Greece isn't due to repay debt until later in the year, so they can only "default" on wages and pensions they're paying their own people.

8 billion is nothing, the French & Germans will pay that to buy their banks a few more months of time. Given enough time, the Greeks can default all they want without too much damage (and that time is probably already here).

Scofflaw

Slydice wrote:

Looks like tomorrow is being made out to be another Greek make or break day.

Er, your OP makes it out to be the make or break day, no?

perplexed,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Something in general to consider in reading any 'trading' source is that you're hearing the voices of people who make their money out of rapid market movements, and who therefore regard even the smallest of those movements as vitally important and incredibly meaningful - after all, otherwise they'd just be gamblers betting on white noise. Most trading sources have the attention span of a goldfish, likely to switch from positive to negative "analysis" several times over the course of the week.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Missed this last time strangely...so thought I'd call you on it.

Do you know many market participants who trade as you outline? Are they successful?

Your view of traders rolling about with newsflow from one position to the other is false in my experience. The reason is that most traders operate on a time horizon of longer than a day...i.e., they aren't day traders and their positions are often open for months at a time and only ever are entered into after careful analysis...the competition is simply too tough for it to be otherwise...(though they do welcome "rapid" price moves if those moves are in their favour

ZH regularly carries big macro stories and pretty deep analysis in addition to news stories that have the potential to impact the market...as they should.

The aggregated news flow can cause a sensible trader to reach a buy or sell tipping point...so it is important...but to imply that traders have the attention span of goldfish or low levels of conviction about their positions which change with every new story...is generally wrong for most successful traders...though likely true for most novices who would be well advised to cease trading against the pros.

Many hedge funds tell their clients that they will lose money until the market recognises that they are right in their thesis. Some are willing to burn through 20% of their equity each year...and yet sophisticated investors still invest in them if they believe the underlying thesis.

Hugh Hendry is a good example of this. He lost money as he waited patiently for the China story to turn and for the market to recognise the reality he saw unfolding before they did...but is now up 32% in the past 6 weeks as the market has begun to recognised that his thesis was correct...and this isn't good news for Europeans hoping for China to buy their bonds.

He has a few choice words to say about European banks as well...this is well worth watching.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss ZH Scofflaw...a lot of people make a lot of money following them, regardless of their editorial policy or intellectual underpinnings.

ZH is read widely for this reason and this reason alone IMO...they are frequently right-on-the-money. I have lost count of the number of times they start a post with the following statement...

"As predicted on ZH"

Scofflaw

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss ZH Scofflaw...a lot of people make a lot of money following them, regardless of their editorial policy or intellectual underpinnings.

ZH is read widely for this reason and this reason alone IMO...they are frequently right-on-the-money. I have lost count of the number of times they start a post with the following statement...

"As predicted on ZH"

I don't think there's any contradiction between being a useful trading blog and not offering useful political analysis - mind you, I'd be impressed if zerohedge somehow manage to buck the general rule that forecasters and analysts rarely come out better than pure chance when it comes to predictive power (and usually come out a good bit worse).

Perhaps zerohedge is the single source that the scientists have been missing when they compare market analysts' predictive capabilities with blindfolded darts-throwing chimpanzees...but, to be honest, I doubt it.

Take the post that this thread references - "Is September 20 Greek Default Day?". It's a very good piece of bet-hedging in the way it's written. If Greece defaults tomorrow, ZH could say "as predicted on ZH", and undoubtedly would...but it's not really predicted, is it? In fact, the article states that it's "as good a day as any, and better than most, if Greece is going to default". Strictly speaking, that doesn't amount to a prediction that Greece will ever default, let alone do so tomorrow - Tyler is "just saying" - but if it happens, it will be claimed as a prediction.

So we can read the same material, and I see a whole load of such claims, carefully written in a "just saying" style, or claims that something general and not all that specific will happen (bad things...in Greece, exposures...in banks), or claims that, frankly, aren't in the least contentious (China supporting the euro is a good example) - and people read into that a record of successful predictions because they're willing to ignore the predictions that didn't come to pass, because, hey, they weren't really predictions in the first place. This neatly cherry-picked 'record' is then contrasted with material that's self-evidently worthless, such as this year's growth rates as predicted late last year by government forecasters, and the disparity claimed as evidence of just how acute ZH (or favourite other source) is.

To put it another way: http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=1908#comic

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

I don't think there's any contradiction between being a useful trading blog and not offering useful political analysis - mind you, I'd be impressed if zerohedge somehow manage to buck the general rule that forecasters and analysts rarely come out better than pure chance when it comes to predictive power (and usually come out a good bit worse).

Well, the reasons for the dismal macro performance of analysts and classically trained economists are well understood in many circles and it is because of their training. If one good thing comes out of this crisis, it might be an abandonment of Keynesianism...but not before we get a further blast of QE I think.

Many Austrian trained money managers are starting to pull in attention grabbing returns...though their models aren't perfect either, because they fail to adequately account for government intervention in the markets...which as we have seen can go on for quite some time and make the Austrians appear perfectly wrong for long periods.

Perhaps zerohedge is the single source that the scientists have been missing when they compare market analysts' predictive capabilities with blindfolded darts-throwing chimpanzees...but, to be honest, I doubt it.

There are aleady many examples of outperformance by investors. I suppose Buffet is the most notable.

Take the post that this thread references - "Is September 20 Greek Default Day?". It's a very good piece of bet-hedging in the way it's written. If Greece defaults tomorrow, ZH could say "as predicted on ZH", and undoubtedly would...but it's not really predicted, is it? In fact, the article states that it's "as good a day as any, and better than most, if Greece is going to default". Strictly speaking, that doesn't amount to a prediction that Greece will ever default, let alone do so tomorrow - Tyler is "just saying" - but if it happens, it will be claimed as a prediction.

OK...you can post that here when he claims it.

So we can read the same material, and I see a whole load of such claims, carefully written in a "just saying" style, or claims that something general and not all that specific will happen (bad things...in Greece, exposures...in banks), or claims that, frankly, aren't in the least contentious (China supporting the euro is a good example) - and people read into that a record of successful predictions because they're willing to ignore the predictions that didn't come to pass, because, hey, they weren't really predictions in the first place. This neatly cherry-picked 'record' is then contrasted with material that's self-evidently worthless, such as this year's growth rates as predicted late last year by government forecasters, and the disparity claimed as evidence of just how acute ZH (or favourite other source) is.

Cherry picking indeed. You just did it.

But your point is valid in that article. I wouldn't predict a specific day for much going on in Europe. Even if you are right about the outcome, the time line is another story entirely which is subject to far too many cross currents to accurately navigate.

If you dig deeper though, you will find lots of really useful material that did come true. They were roundly ridiculed when they sniffed out issues at Sinoforest, Lehman, Bear, BoA (literally days before the Buffet deal)...but guess what...they were right. You might not like it for political or other reasons, but I love it for this type of research...the thing is, as with everything online, to exercise a little discernment...and take nothing at face value.

Their latest focus is SocGen and Credit Agricole as the two most likely candidates to blow up or require another bailout.

Also, China supporting the Euro isn't contentious? Sure, if they buy $1m in bonds they are supporting it, but the degree if support is important. Didn't premier Wen just say that countries must get their own houses in order?

Many took that to mean that mass bond purchases are soon coming off the table. I have no idea...but we'll soon see.

They seem to be facing some stiff, emerging headwinds at home in their giant property bubble and all that goes with that.

Scofflaw

If you dig deeper though, you will find lots of really useful material that did come true. They were roundly ridiculed when they sniffed out issues at Sinoforest, Lehman, Bear, BoA (literally days before the Buffet deal)...but guess what...they were right. You might not like it for political or other reasons, but I love it for this type of research...the thing is, as with everything online, to exercise a little discernment...and take nothing at face value.

Hmm, no, you've kind of missed the point. It's unreliable (over and above the usual unreliability of economic predictions) because it has a strong conspiracy-based and apocalyptically-oriented agenda. So whatever value it may have in terms of the occasional useful content is over-shadowed by the fact that it's neither neutral nor limited to mere reality. It's most useful as a source of negative news, but even the negative news will be slanted towards the agenda, if by nothing more than the fact that positive news isn't of interest to it at all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Hmm, no, you've kind of missed the point. It's unreliable.

cordially,
Scofflaw

My investment returns beg to differ....and thats really all I care about.

Is the FT reliable in your opinion? I read it for almost 2 decades every day in work and rarely got the sort of actionable info I get from ZH almost weekly. Reggie Middletons team of banking analysts would be at home at any of the big hedge funds for example.

I have NEVER seen a comparable level of outstanding analysis in the FT...not once. I don't pay their monthly fee now and I don't miss it.

In my time as an investment broker, I was privy to internal analysts reports that approached Reggies level of sophistication. ZH gets some of those internal reports (which I no longer enjoy) which are made for staff, paying HNW clients and favoured institutions and publishes or links to them for everyone to see...stuff like research notes from the big banks.

That is worth something to me.

Also, and I hate to bring this up since you skirted it, but ex-GS staff ARE in multiple key positions in multiple key institutions...but openly so...so its not really a "secret cabal"...is it?

If my ex-colleagues call me up with a potentially mutually profitable idea, I will always listen. Why should Goldman staff be any different?

Their post GS positions in the world must throw up a huge array of profitable opportunities. I think it's naieve to think otherwise...or that they aren't in contact with people from their old company. After all, who in their right mind throws out a GS contact list?

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

My investment returns beg to differ....and thats really all I care about.

Which is kind of the point.

Amberman wrote: »

Is the FT reliable in your opinion? I read it for almost 2 decades every day in work and rarely got the sort of actionable info I get from ZH almost weekly. Reggie Middletons team of banking analysts would be at home at any of the big hedge funds for example.

I have NEVER seen a comparable level of outstanding analysis in the FT...not once. I don't pay their monthly fee now and I don't miss it.

In my time as an investment broker, I was privy to internal analysts reports that approached Reggies level of sophistication. ZH gets some of those internal reports (which I no longer enjoy) which are made for staff, paying HNW clients and favoured institutions and publishes or links to them for everyone to see...stuff like research notes from the big banks.

That is worth something to me.

Also, and I hate to bring this up since you skirted it, but ex-GS staff ARE in multiple key positions in multiple key institutions...but openly so...so its not really a "secret cabal"...is it?

If my ex-colleagues call me up with a potentially mutually profitable idea, I will always listen. Why should Goldman staff be any different?

Their post GS positions in the world must throw up a huge array of profitable opportunities. I think it's naieve to think otherwise...or that they aren't in contact with people from their old company. After all, who in their right mind throws out a GS contact list?

And UCD alumni are in positions of power throughout Ireland - but perhaps I simply don't get the mailing list.

What's fairly likely is that GS alumni share a particular mindset, but on the other hand it's a mindset that's aspired to quite widely. If one broadens the spotlight a little, one can see ex-members of the big consultancy companies in major roles throughout the capitalist world. Again, that doesn't have to produce any connected conspiracy, but it's likely to lead to a certain similarity of thought, with the downside risk that implies.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Which is kind of the point.



And UCD alumni are in positions of power throughout Ireland - but perhaps I simply don't get the mailing list.

What's fairly likely is that GS alumni share a particular mindset, but on the other hand it's a mindset that's aspired to quite widely. If one broadens the spotlight a little, one can see ex-members of the big consultancy companies in major roles throughout the capitalist world. Again, that doesn't have to produce any connected conspiracy, but it's likely to lead to a certain similarity of thought, with the downside risk that implies.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Not only the mindset is aspired to widely, but the access to key decision makers and centers of influence. Their access across the world is unmatched IMO.

What separates GS from, say, McKinsey, among other things, is their political clout and their ability to access and lever capital.

This combination does makes them dangerous...but you can't really blame them...they are just doing what they should be doing...which is getting away with as much loot as they think they can get away with.

You really have to look at the regulators.

femur61

Tuesdays here.

Zubeneschamali

femur61 wrote: »

Tuesdays here.

World doesn't seem to have ended yet. Greece "close to a deal" with troika on next tranche of the bailout, conference call later.

Amberman

femur61 wrote: »

Tuesdays here.

And the Chinese jeer...

In an article about the reasons for China's increased purchase of U.S. Treasuries, the newspaper cited Yan Xiaona, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that the dollar "is relatively safer than the euro" because of the unfolding sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

Godge

Has anything happened with Greece today? Maybe for the first time this website with all the answers got something wrong?

Or maybe I need to wait another few hours? The tension is killing me.

Have they made any predictions for the rest of the week?

Amberman

Yes, they paid the @769m coupon they were due to pay IIRC. No default today...More successful can-kicking. Quite impressive really when you think about it....and ZH has shut down in shame

Italy got downgraded, China seen moving into more US bonds and away from "risky" Europe. French banks get hammered again....just the usual calamities...nothing to worry about...and none of it really surprising.

Godge

Amberman wrote: »

Italy got downgraded, China seen moving into more US bonds and away from "risky" Europe. French banks get hammered again....just the usual calamities...nothing to worry about...and none of it really surprising.

Were these predicted to happen on Tuesday as well? If not, then they got more than Greece wrong.

Amberman

Godge wrote: »

Were these predicted to happen on Tuesday as well? If not, then they got more than Greece wrong.

No, they weren't predicted these happen on Tuesday...but that doesn't necessarily make them wrong, does it? I mean they didnt predict that stock ABC would rise by x.xx% either. Are they therefore wrong about that? Do you see why your position is pretty weak??

Each of thse three scenarios, French banking troubles, Chinese bond purchase backoff and Italian downgrades had previously been covered in some detail and aren't really a surprise...more of an expectation.

Actually, less than 24 hours ago, before the Chinese announcement, I challenged Scofflaw on his assertion that the Chinese would continue to support Europe in this very thread. He said...not 24 hours ago...

So we can read the same material, and I see a whole load of such claims, carefully written in a "just saying" style, or claims that something general and not all that specific will happen (bad things...in Greece, exposures...in banks), or claims that, frankly, aren't in the least contentious (China supporting the euro is a good example)

I replied...

Also, China supporting the Euro isn't contentious? Sure, if they buy $1m in bonds they are supporting it, but the degree if support is important. Didn't premier Wen just say that countries must get their own houses in order?

Many took that to mean that mass bond purchases are soon coming off the table. I have no idea...but we'll soon see.

They seem to be facing some stiff, emerging headwinds at home in their giant property bubble and all that goes with that.

And hey presto, thanks to the reading ZH...I was able to see past the noise and realise there was a real issue here...(and that Chinese bond purchases were contentious going forward when others couldn't see it...as has today been highlighted by a flurry of announcements by the Chinese...not 24 hours after that post.

The key, as I have already said is to be discerning in what you read and not take everything at face value.

The French banking crisis particularly has been covered in minute detail.

Have a read of this...just published.

It's one of those..."As we predicted" posts.

Lots of pretty pictures in it for you to enjoy.

Amberman

Looks like the Slovenian government may collapse today according to ZH.

It has just collapsed.

Though in fairness, I have no idea how "odds-on" this was. Probably strongly odds-on.

hmmm

I'm sitting here in my bunker and my beans are going cold. Why hasn't Greece defaulted? I thought there are people here making millions in trading profits on the back of ZH "predictions"?

Godge

Amberman wrote: »

Looks like the Slovenian government may collapse today according to ZH.

It has just collapsed.

Though in fairness, I have no idea how "odds-on" this was. Probably strongly odds-on.

If that link is the quality of the advice on the Greek default, I wouldn't be relying on it. In a short piece (three paragraphs or so) I counted three explicit "not sure"s and there were more implicit in other statements. At least four possible times for a Greek default included in the piece - today, Friday, sooner, later.

As for the Slovenian government collapse, it was a bit like predicting a ball will roll down a hill.

Sand

On the nature of predictions:

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Mohandas Gandhi

FYI - The Greek "default" rubicon was crossed back in July. Before July people swore no Eurzone government would ever, ever, ever default. Then they did.