some space weather on the way??

silverharp · 04-08-2011 9:28pm #1

can this cause any damage that anyone would notice? or is this story hyped up some?

http://spaceweather.com/

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a significant M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event.....

Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

maquiladora · 04-08-2011 9:53pm

It seems at worst could be a G3 geomagnetic storm.

Nothing to worry about really.

G 3

Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#G3

stevenmu · 04-08-2011 11:00pm

Isn't Kp 7 around the threshold where we might get to see auroras ?

maquiladora · 04-08-2011 11:42pm

stevenmu wrote: »

Isn't Kp 7 around the threshold where we might get to see auroras ?

Up in the far north of the country if youre lucky yes.

muckish · 05-08-2011 12:09am

Just remember that auroras lower than KP7 values can be seen in Donegal for example. I would head out at KP5. The aurora will be visible lower on the horizon, so a uninterupted view of the Horizon (ie North coast) is desirable. There are other factors such as solar wind speed that affect whether there's an aurora visible at KP5. So worth heading out for viewing at KP5+ but not always productive.

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 10:05am

With the fact that the M9.3 flare has already porentially joined forces with a previous big flare, i could see this baby hitting kp8 for a time, if current speeds/impact rate are not going to change in a major way, as Kp7 was mostly for the M9.3 flare's speeds and size, not for that and another CME cloud thrown in at the same time, time will tell.

At the curret moment, Aurora's are certain over the Far North, likely over the mid-north, and potential for further south if we get a good tilting of the IMF field. If the IMF fields tilts nicely south, more energy can slip though this "shield", therefore allowing for a greater chance of Aurora's.

Extremely interested to see how this one plays out. Here's a useful chart also, take note of the traffic lights as their called:

http://www.spacew.com/

BEASTERLY · 05-08-2011 1:37pm

When could we expect this to arrive, tonight?

thetonynator · 05-08-2011 1:45pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

When could we expect this to arrive, tonight?

Half an hour ago, plus or minus 7 hours it said. So the only chance for the aurora would be tonight. Not that we have any chance this far south . . :mad:

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 7:03pm

Well it seems that there's way too much cloud around anyway for most, you need an extremely clear night for that pesky Northern horizon to be cloudless, even under high pressure here always seems to be a bank of cloud on the northern horizon.

Hopefully things crack up a bit as the evening progresses, it would be a nice treat for some Northern folk to have a good display, and to see if anywhere outside of Ulster can get a sniff.

NASA ACE spacecraft have reported that the CME may just arriveing and beginning to impact Earth. IMF field is currently South so whatever will impact will flood into our atmosphere. I'm very interested on how this holds up, if inital speeds/strength is accurate, could be a fun night or two, weather pending! Finger's crossed!

maquiladora · 05-08-2011 7:28pm

Yep looks like something is happening now alright.

John can you interpret this?

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 7:53pm

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....

Solar wind speed is rapidly increasing, nearly up to 600 now, should keep going, but it's getting into the range of what wind speeds aurora's become visible over the north of Ireland....KP is stil low though, but it will start increasing in awhile. (Fluctuating also)

Density of the solar wind is above 10 protons, fluctuating, but keeping over 10 protons. Pretty much means this CME is packing a punch.

IMF is gone North for the moment, (represented by the red line), has been South till now, looks like its heading down once again. We really need it to get back South to let more energy flow in! EDIT: South again, looks like fluctuating again.

Phi? I'm unsure, but the most important one's are above ^^

EDIT: And just to add on the KP, it's only updated every 3 hours I think, so it'll be awhile before we can tell what the KP is

EDIT 2 : Solar wind speed seems to have hit a stall in growth, just bouncing up and down between 600-650..which is a tad dissapoiting, as this was really forecast as a big CME, so I expected above 700 for a time...it's still early, and maybe if the IMF field can settle down into South territory things may pick up, as bz is going North a lot, hindering stronger rises in solar wind speed.

Iancar29 · 05-08-2011 10:39pm

OMG KP is at 8!!!!!!! :O :O :O :O :O

TYPICAL!!!>..... CLOUDY OUT!!!!! ARRRGGGGGGHHHH!!!!

SOOO FECKED OFF RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!! :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

:(:(:(:(:(

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 11:11pm

I just seen that..FU*KING INSANE!

I am majorly ticked with the clouds....best chance in years for Aurora's South of Ulster.

Argh, to make it worse, I went outside.....Sky is clear overhead and to the south....guess where theres a huge bank of horrible cloud? To the north. Even if they wouldnt be there, A clear sky would be useful anyway.

Aiel · 05-08-2011 11:17pm

Wow,kp of 8 but typical theres cloud:mad::(.Still though im right now considering driving to a darker part on the outskirts of the city(Galway) with a view north,im thinking up by Barna Golf Club.

Iancar29 · 05-08-2011 11:18pm

Aiel wrote: »

Wow,kp of 8 but typical theres cloud:mad::(.Still though im right now considering driving to a darker part on the outskirts of the city(Galway) with a view north,im thinking up by Barna Golf Club.

GO GO GO!! GOOD LUCK!... But clouds are all over the place according to SAT!

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 11:22pm

Donegal looks fairly clear...Get outside Muckfish!

Iancar29 · 05-08-2011 11:25pm

John.Icy wrote: »

Donegal looks fairly clear...Get outside Muckfish!

I bet he's already ooooutt and abooooutt! ... LUCKY FECKER! ha

m.j.w · 05-08-2011 11:26pm

can someone please post a picture if they get a chance to see something. im in louth and all i see it darkness

Iancar29 · 05-08-2011 11:28pm

Currently trying to contact a friend in INverness! , hopefully he sees something from there!... if not... we hav NO HOPE! haha

John.Icy · 05-08-2011 11:28pm

http://www.spacew.com/

I shouldn't have looked at this...now I'm sadder....RED flashing light over low latitudes = Aurora's highley possible over most of Ireland...Awh man.

Edit: Gone back to yellow now, coinciding with the iMF tilting back North, so it'll chop and change

Iancar29 · 05-08-2011 11:54pm

Photo taken IN WIGAN!!!! .... SOOO ANGRY!!

Wigan is at the same LAtitude as DUBLIN!!!

maquiladora · 06-08-2011 12:16am

4 hour latest prediction : KP 9? :eek:

dexter647 · 06-08-2011 12:21am

Clouds everywhere... God i hate this summer:mad::mad:

Iancar29 · 06-08-2011 12:22am

maquiladora wrote: »

4 hour latest prediction : KP 9? :eek:

ISnt that.....like dangerous????

John.Icy · 06-08-2011 12:24am

WOW! KP 9 would power through the thinner clouds over the Ireland..

The North sky is kinda clearing now, only a thin cover, but to my west there's bigger clouds building....I have at most an hour before the whole sky is under a very thick layer of clouds, so no chance at all.....This storm is very big, there is a chance it will survive till Saturday night....with showers clearing during the everning, there should be clear spells....as for tonight, the satelite just isn't showing any proper breaks in the cloud...which is a pity, what an epic oppertunity going to waste!

Iancar29 · 06-08-2011 12:26am

I WANNA CRY RIGHT NOW

maquiladora · 06-08-2011 12:31am

Prediction has dropped back to 8.7 now but thats still severe to extreme!

Any reports of power grid problems?

Edit: I see its at G3 at the moment, not strong enough to cause too much problems.

John.Icy · 06-08-2011 12:44am

Yeah where were at atm it won't do much, but if the IMF field can stay south for say an hour, it could get worse, but it keeps going North preventing it getting worse.

At present, there would't be much chance over the South, there was around 45 minutes ago, but as said IMG went North, solar wind speed dropped, so until we get back into south IMF, there won't be much on offer, except maybe the far North. I hope we get one more burst tonight for the South, before thicker cloud arrives assosiated with incoming weather fronts.

EDIT: KP was only at 3 at the last 3 hour update mark, so there was a lull while the IMF went into north for awhile, so it doesn't necasarily mean it's all over now, KP could be back at 8, but it isn't frequently updating along with other data. IMF is back south now, a pick up in solar wind speed and aurora risk for some area's south of Ulster will resume.

Elmer Blooker · 06-08-2011 1:28am

dexter647 wrote: »

Clouds everywhere... God i hate this summer:mad::mad:

Good clear sky to the north here at the moment but nothing to report.

mickger844posts · 06-08-2011 1:40am

Can't believe it was 9kp earlier :eek: Was too cloudy here to see anything but like other posters said what a waste to get such a high kp and have a dense cloud cover.

eskimocat · 06-08-2011 2:10am

went on a midnight run, it was actually well after midnight..:D to see if perchance there might be a small break in the clouds somewhere to see the display... NOTHING! :rolleyes:

John.Icy · 06-08-2011 2:19am

Germany ^^^ (Similar snaps taken in Netherlands)

God damn clouds...the whole of Ireland pretty much missed the chance at an amazing display.

maquiladora · 06-08-2011 2:37am

The 4 hour prediction is up to 8.9

Harps · 06-08-2011 2:46am

No break in the clouds here on the NW Donegal coast, hopefully clearer around Letterkenny for muckish

red menace · 06-08-2011 6:00am

Bit of reading too long to quote

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2011/08/05/major-geomagnetic-storm-in-progress/

gbee · 06-08-2011 9:30am

So we got a surprise!!

Just when we thought it was all over * BAM! 8/9KP and visible from Cork even, if only for the weather.

Aiel · 06-08-2011 2:00pm

Went for a drive from 12-1am last night to the dark outskirts of Galway City to try see something but no luck with the dam clouds.Even thicker clouds were rolling in so we left it then,boo:(.

maquiladora · 06-08-2011 3:14pm

Yesterdays storm was the biggest for 8 years.

A real shame about the cloudcover over Ireland. It might be a long wait before the next time the Aurora extends so far south.

Geomagnetic Storm has Ended: The biggest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 24 thus far is over as the K-Index is now below 5. Minor geomagnetic activity may persist through the day on Saturday however. At its peak the storm was briefly close to the G4 Level and visible Aurora was seen in Northern Europe and also parts of Canada and northern USA. The Solar Wind increased to around 700 km/s after the initial shock and the Bz tilted sharply south (-20nt). Had the incoming CME shock hit about 4 hours later than it did, the visible aurora in North America would have been much better. By the time it got dark out, most of the show was over. This event was short in duration compared to previous storms in the past, nonetheless it was great to see.

http://www.solarham.com/

muckish · 06-08-2011 9:13pm

Harps wrote: »

No break in the clouds here on the NW Donegal coast, hopefully clearer around Letterkenny for muckish

Was up in Greencastle last night. Cloud cover there as well. Looks like 100% cloud cover over the whole country. Oh for a KP8 on a clear night again!

maquiladora · 07-08-2011 9:59pm

BIG SUNSPOT GETS BIGGER: Behemoth sunspot 1263 has almost doubled in size this weekend. A 28-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the spot developing a tail that has added some 50,000 km of length to the active region. This development may increase the likelihood of a strong flare.

What do you think John?
10% chance of a X class. Is it in a poor position to be earth directed if it happens?

John.Icy · 07-08-2011 11:30pm

It's slipping away to be getting a direct hit now, but the M9 flare event was pretty much a direct hit and the sunspot which released the flare wasn't centered on the sun by any means, so it would still be a large enough impact if an X-Class were too happen in the next day or so. (Day two would be pushing it for sunspot location.)

I don't see an X-Flare from 1263 myself, just a hunch, there's no way to tell..once a sunspot has a "beta-gamma-delta" class magnetic field harbours energy for an X-Flare anything can happen.

Edit: 1267 decayed overnight so it's not a threat for any flares after all.

I may be wrong on 1263, and heck, I wouldn't mind if she decided to hurl another flare towards us, but she'd want to hurry up otherwise any flare would miss Earth completely.

muckish · 08-08-2011 4:28pm

This is what we missed due to damn cloud cover. Agghhh the frustration of Irish weather. Hopefully the night of the 12th will be clear for the annual perseids meteor shower. Full moon will drown out a good bit but there should be some still visible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23CdiSBd9MY

muckish · 09-08-2011 7:44am

Sunspot 1263 produced a M3 class flare yesterday. Unfortunately not directed at Earth so no Auroras; but then you never know.

John.Icy · 09-08-2011 5:12pm

WOW...1263 let out an X.7 class solar flare, biggest in a long time...however, as discussed previously, any CME from a flare would deliver a glancing blow at best at this staged, so we'll have to see further updates if any impact at all will happen, which unfortunately isn't likely.

maquiladora · 09-08-2011 6:57pm

Wow an X7! :eek: But not earth-directed...

x6.9.jpg

eskimocat · 09-08-2011 9:59pm

please excuse my general ignorance on flares, auroras etc but is an X7 the same as a KP7? or something completely different

muckish · 09-08-2011 10:58pm

X7 class Flare
cme_c3.gif?PHPSESSID=9j6tf1t3d0vvppdds4ciov8nn7

SOHO coronagraphs show a CME emerging from the blast site. The cloud will probably miss Earth. At this time, however, we cannot rule out a glancing blow from the flank of the CME on or about August 11th. from www.spaceweather.com

maquiladora · 10-08-2011 9:01am

eskimocat wrote: »

please excuse my general ignorance on flares, auroras etc but is an X7 the same as a KP7? or something completely different

Flares are classed as:

A
B
C
M
X

Each class is 10 ten times bigger than the previous one, X is the highest.
Within each class then there is a scale 1 to 9, so an X7 is very powerful since the scale only goes as far as X9.

red menace · 10-08-2011 12:43pm

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2011/08/10/perseid-meteor-shower-on-august-12th-and-13th/

The meteor shower is already underway. Earth is passing through a broad stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, and specks of comet dust are hitting the top of Earth’s atmosphere at 140,000 mph. These disintegrating meteors stream out of the constellation Perseus – hence the name “Perseids.” According to the International Meteor Organization, worldwide observers now are counting more than a dozen Perseids per hour with more to come on August 12-13 when Earth passes near the heart of the debris stream.
Experts note that moonlight and meteor showers don’t mix. Indeed, the great number of faint Perseids that observers would normally count in a dark year will be invisible in 2011 with the Moon glaring overhead. On the bright side – no pun intended – any Perseid that does manage to pierce the glare is likely to be a fireball. These are caused by relatively big pieces of debris disintegrating in flashes too bright to be subdued. It’s not unusual to see at least a few Perseid shadow-casters on peak night.

muckish · 10-08-2011 12:51pm

red menace wrote: »

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2011/08/10/perseid-meteor-shower-on-august-12th-and-13th/

Unfortunately during the peak there will be a full moon which will drown out all but the stronger/brighter meteors. The best time to see this years show will be the nights before the peak around 2am to sunrise as the moon will have set. The numbers/rate will be less than the peak but you should see some meteors. Unfortunately here over the last few nights we have had total cloud cover in Donegal, so nothing to see so far. Fingers crossed for a few patches of clear sky even!!

red menace · 10-08-2011 12:56pm

I am living in Edmonton Alberta, so should have clear skies just have lots of light pollution

some space weather on the way??

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