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What are the odds of winning the lotto twice?

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Comments

  • #182
    keane2097
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,905 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    28064212 wrote: »
    This should be good. What realm those it fall into so?

    The realm of chance. Duh.
    28064212 wrote: »
    And just so we're clear (since you didn't answer the question again), you agree with this statement: The mathematical odds that 4 comes out in the next 10 draws are exactly equal to any other number, regardless of how long its been since 4 last came out

    If you are taking "ten draws" as a single event.


  • #183
    28064212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,155 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    keane2097 wrote: »
    The realm of chance. Duh.
    Ah, the mythical "chance". Any chance (:pac:) of defining it a little more?
    keane2097 wrote: »
    If you are taking "ten draws" as a single event.
    Make your mind up:
    keane2097 wrote: »
    On any individual draw the mathematical odds are the same.

    Over a series of draws the non-mathematical possibility/likelihood changes.
    10 draws is a series of draws

    True or false: The mathematical odds that 4 comes out in the next 10 draws are exactly equal to any other number, regardless of how long its been since 4 last came out. The odds do not change at any point along those 10 draws regardless of whether you take it as 1 series of events or 10 single events

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  • #184
    suitseir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 887 ✭✭✭suitseir


    Deleted User wrote: »
    A guy who used to work in my place won it twice. And he was super rich to begin with :(

    "money follows money" it is said!


    There was a winner of the Lotto in Athlone 2 odd million and seemingly, if I heard correctly on the radio, this person had already won lotto plus some time ago (allegedly!)......nice.


  • #185
    Buceph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,059 ✭✭✭Buceph


    I haven't read the thread but am bursting in to quote a great man.

    As said by Terry Pratchett, "a million-to-one chance succeeds nine times out of ten"


  • #186
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    Buceph wrote: »
    I haven't read the thread but am bursting in to quote a great man.

    As said by Terry Pratchett, "a million-to-one chance succeeds nine times out of ten"


    At this stage I wouldn't bother if I were you. Nine out of ten posters have ignored or misunderstood the OP, and you have a million-to-one chance of making them address the actual subject.


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  • #187
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,339 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Tell me, if statistics and probabilty are solved areas of mathematics, why do have people still employed in research in those areas?

    Haha. This stuff isn't still being researched. This stuff is basic probability.

    If you think otherwise you have an opening for a PhD. Go for it.


  • #188
    Khyra24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭Khyra24


    I heard of a Texan woman who hit the lottery four times...pushing her winnings to over $20 million. I need to buy from Texas...


  • #189
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    keane2097 wrote: »
    I know what Gambler's Fallacy is, I'm in this game a long time.

    Mathematical odds don't change but the 'chance' does.

    For what it's worth, I have two graduate degrees in subjects that make heavy use of probability (mathematical finance and probabilistic number theory), and I'm studying for a third.

    I can say, without a shadow of a doubt, that you're talking through your hoop. "likelihood", "chance" and "probability" mean the same thing unless you're a Bayesian statistician, in which case likelihood means something subtly different.
    keane2097 wrote: »
    On any individual draw the mathematical odds are the same.

    Over a series of draws the non-mathematical possibility/likelihood changes.


    "non-mathematical possibility" is some term you've conjured out of thin air to mean "whatever I think it should be".


  • #190
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    keane2097 wrote: »
    No, I'm saying that the longer a number hasn't landed on in roulette, the more likely it is to come out in subsequent spins.

    No, your confusing it here. In reality, the more spins, the more likely a given number will come up. It does not matter what happens in previous spins, previous spins will have no bearing on the current one.

    When you say the longer a number has not come up, the more likely it is to come up on subsequent spins, it does not make a difference if it has come up on previous spins or not, its simply the more spins, the more likely you will see it sometime.


  • #191
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    Haha. This stuff isn't still being researched. This stuff is basic probability.

    If you think otherwise you have an opening for a PhD. Go for it.



    Good place to publish research in this area would be the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Not basic probability, but applications thereof presumably, along with related findings from other research fields.

    Here's a link to a 2008 paper in that journal addressing the behaviour of low-income participants in state lotteries.


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  • #192
    Pace2008
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,587 ✭✭✭Pace2008


    Jesus, it's this thread (from post #68 onwards) all over again.

    You have to worry a little for humanity when people think their own self-derived notions of how the world works trump basic established mathematics.


  • #193
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    At this stage I wouldn't bother if I were you. Nine out of ten posters have ignored or misunderstood the OP, and you have a million-to-one chance of making them address the actual subject.

    So what are your chances of making them address the actual subject twice in a row?


  • #194
    Pace2008
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,587 ✭✭✭Pace2008


    Fremen wrote: »
    So what are your chances of making them address the actual subject twice in a row?
    I'd also like to know the likelihood as well as probability of this happening.


  • #195
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    maw wrote: »
    yes but the probability will still get nowhere near the fact we probably have about 40 winners from the 100 odd main draws per year.
    I doubt we have 40 jackpot winners a year now since the 45 numbers came in. It often goes 4 or 5 weeks without a winner, then a single winner.

    you must also consider, (AND THIS IS SIGNIFICANT), the amount of duplicate entries made every draw, wether by chance (manually picked) or "randomly" generated by quick picks. this greatly reduces the real number of discrete entries per draw.

    For example i remember reading a stat from UK lotto that said for a £10M jackpot if the winning numbers were 1,2,3,4,5,6 the prize would be only £100 per ticket based on the numbers of people that pick those numbers[/QUOTE]

    Yes but 1,2,3,4,5,6 are just set numbers people pick which they dont pick at random. There would be very few other duplicates of that amount of matching tickets. What is the most number of people that has ever won here? Rarely more than 2 or 3. It can not be argued against the fact that we have 8 million combinations for maybe 2 million players.

    Compare it to the uk which has 14 million combinations, and whats its population? Certainy more than that.

    And as i said before, the jackpot is i think 7 times less likely to be won by an individual than the 5 and bonus, but the 5 and bonus gets a paltry 1/80th of the minimum jackpot prize.


  • #196
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,339 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Pace2008 wrote: »
    Jesus, it's this thread (from post #68 onwards) all over again.

    You have to worry a little for humanity when people think their own self-derived notions of how the world works trump basic established mathematics.

    I dug up that thread earlier. Many of Keane's posts are very similar to OutlawPete's.

    "The non-mathematically possibility of something happening"

    "The mathematical 'probability' of the numbers coming out does not change but the likelihood / probable / chance of them coming out is increasing."


  • #197
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    Pace2008 wrote: »
    I'd also like to know the likelihood as well as probability of this happening.

    The non-mathematical chance is OVER NINE THOUSAND!


  • #198
    Pace2008
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,587 ✭✭✭Pace2008


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    I dug up that thread earlier. Many of Keane's posts are very similar to OutlawPete's.

    "The non-mathematically possibility of something happening"

    "The mathematical 'probability' of the numbers coming out does not change but the likelihood / probable / chance of them coming out is increasing."
    I think implicit in both is the belief in "luck" as a supernatural, quasi-intelligent force.


  • #199
    doomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 490 ✭✭doomed


    28064212 wrote: »
    And yet you're arguing for something which is a direct contradiction of it


    Back to a coin flip. 10 heads happen in a row. What are the mathematical odds that tails is next. What is the 'chance' that tails is next?


    The odds are exactly the same as they always were 50%. The previous results are irrelevant. The coin doesn't know its previous history. Its not going "in fairness after 10 heads its time for tails to have a go"


  • #200
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    Pace2008 wrote: »
    I think implicit in both is the belief in "luck" as a supernatural, quasi-intelligent force.



    I think it's just a basic misunderstanding of the content of the law of large numbers, really.

    "From 100 coinflips, there should be about fifty heads and fifty tails. I've just seen fourty heads, so the law of large numbers says I can expect about ten more".

    Anyone who uses that reasoning has just made a simple but easy-to-make mistake about conditional probability.


  • #201
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    At this stage I wouldn't bother if I were you. Nine out of ten posters have ignored or misunderstood the OP, and you have a million-to-one chance of making them address the actual subject.

    The actual subject has been answered, 8 million squared for 2 wins from 2 single plays. And the odds reduce as you play more times.


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  • #202
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    kc66 wrote: »
    A guy that lives just outside Dundalk won the lotto, he won again as part of a syndicate, and a few weeks ago he won the Monday millions.
    The-Rigger wrote: »
    Exactly.

    Did you give him a hand?


  • #203
    Pace2008
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,587 ✭✭✭Pace2008


    Fremen wrote: »
    I think it's a basic misunderstanding of the content of the law of large numbers, actually.

    "From 100 coinflips, there should be about fifty heads and fifty tails. I've just seen fourty heads, so the law of large numbers says I can expect about ten more".

    Anyone who uses that reasoning has just made a simple but easy-to-make mistake about conditional probability.
    It's a completely understandable mistake as probability can be counterintuitive initially.

    What I find less understandable is how people can reject fundamental mathematics when it's explained to them in basic terms and instead barrel on for about 100 posts inventing their own unquantifiable alternatives to probability along the way.


  • #204
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    robbie7730 wrote: »
    The actual subject has been answered, 8 million squared for 2 wins from 2 single plays. And the odds reduce as you play more times.



    Except that is the answer to a question the OP didn't actually ask, IMO. In fact, since this is AH, I believe the real-world question raised has more popular appeal than any discussion of the precise chances of winning the Lotto on one or more occasions. That is part of what makes the Lotto attractive and hence a money-spinner for the State.


  • #205
    dougal-maguire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 191 ✭✭dougal-maguire


    keane,you dont seem to want to clarify your method,but you did mention you double your bet each time you lose,and keep doing this until you win.you also said that you start betting on a number after it goes a certain number of draws without coming out (as you have a better chance of winning this way),so after how many draws do you start betting on a number?im interested because i made about 200 euro over a month or 2,but quit because it takes quite a bit of time updating spredsheets.


  • #206
    Iwannahurl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,156 ✭✭✭Iwannahurl


    Fremen wrote: »
    So what are your chances of making them address the actual subject twice in a row?



    P=SFA?

    Somehow the drip-drip of not very useful information in this long thread brings to mind this joke.

    A mathematician organises a raffle in which the prize is an infinite amount of money paid over an infinite amount of time. People are so impressed by this amazing prize that the mathematician has no trouble selling a large number of tickets. He holds the draw in due course, the winning ticket is drawn, and the excited winner shows up to claim the prize. Then the mathematician explains the payout method: "One Euro now, half a Euro next week, one third the week after that..."


  • #207
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    Except that is the answer to a question the OP didn't actually ask, IMO. In fact, since this is AH, I believe the real-world question raised has more popular appeal than any discussion of the precise chances of winning the Lotto on one or more occasions. That is part of what makes the Lotto attractive and hence a money-spinner for the State.

    Well the op said he heard some lucky person won it twice, and whats the odds of that. So some answer that with what the odds are, by mistake:D


  • #208
    Jesus Wept
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,243 ✭✭✭✭Jesus Wept


    robbie7730 wrote: »
    Did you give him a hand?

    What do you mean?


  • #209
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    The-Rigger wrote: »
    What do you mean?

    Was just jokin about the user name.


  • #210
    Jesus Wept
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,243 ✭✭✭✭Jesus Wept


    I gettit.


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  • #211
    Jesus Wept
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,243 ✭✭✭✭Jesus Wept


    Iwannahurl wrote: »
    P=SFA?

    Somehow the drip-drip of not very useful information in this long thread brings to mind this joke.

    A mathematician organises a raffle in which the prize is an infinite amount of money paid over an infinite amount of time. People are so impressed by this amazing prize that the mathematician has no trouble selling a large number of tickets. He holds the draw in due course, the winning ticket is drawn, and the excited winner shows up to claim the prize. Then the mathematician explains the payout method: "One Euro now, half a Euro next week, one third the week after that..."

    That's a joke?


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