100 Bets to broke NH Finale

longshotvalue · 04-02-2011 11:48pm #1

Sandown 2:25
Reve De Sivola: Although his last run didn't look that great, his second last run was better. He was a top class novice hurdler finishing second to Peddlers Cross at the festival last year. I'm not convinced that there is a lot between the main contenders and he looks a bit of value at around 13 win and 3.5 to place.

2 Points win 2 Points Place

Sandown 3:00
Gee Dee Nen: Hasn't been consistent over fences this year but his last few runs over hurdles look decent considering his lower mark here. He was 3rd in the Lanzarote Handicap hurdle to Michael Flipps of a mark of 125 this time last year. He is in here of 122 with only 10:02 to carry and that makes him look competitive. Currently 70.0 to win and 8.0 to place. He certainly doesn't look that big to me on his hurdles form.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Sandown 3:35
Take the Breeze: I tipped him last week when he was a non runner, and nothing has changed except this is a weaker race. He is gone up 6lbs for his last very good run against an excellent yardstick in Massinis Maguire, and has a decent 5lb claimer on to offset that today. He looks a good bit clear of these on known form and could be well capable of giving weight all around. He looks a couple of points overpriced @ 5.2.

3 Points Win

Ffos Las: 2:40
Tarkari:, I'm going to go with gut feeling that this one might have a very decent chance of being second here, he is the choice over Barizan of the stable jockey, and none of the other rivals have any decent form on softer going. Currently he looks overpriced at about 5.2 and might get a bit bigger as the market strengthens.

2 Points Place

x PyRo · 05-02-2011 12:06am

Aidan, I've moved both of your threads into the log section. You'll get more views here also.

Best of luck with it and well done on the fourth consecutive profit with the last one, top notch stuff.

UrbanSea · 05-02-2011 12:12am

I'm on Reve tomorrow aswell,hope he comes in.

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 12:21am

x PyRo wrote: »

Aidan, I've moved both of your threads into the log section. You'll get more views here also.

Best of luck with it and well done on the fourth consecutive profit with the last one, top notch stuff.

thanks PyRo , ive never seen this section...

x PyRo · 05-02-2011 12:25am

It's by far the busiest on the Gambling forum so it's the best spot to have your thread.

Best of luck with all of them Sir.

Nulty · 05-02-2011 2:24am

I haven't looked at the races yet but I like all of those horses. I've backed them all at one time or another (Gee Dee Nen at Glorious Goodwood

:rolleyes:).

Take The Breeze was my fancy for the race that was abandoned at Haydock. He looks to have a good chance here but I think hes a much better horse on soft gropund and its officially good a Sandown. Still tempted...

Break a leg aidan

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 4:38pm

Sandown 4:05

King Edmund, he is back from a bit of a break on decent ground which should suit him. He had a few poor jumps in both starts early this season, and hopefully it has been sorted out for this. He looks a bit overpriced here at 10/1

2 Points win 10/1

thesandeman · 05-02-2011 9:05pm

Oops! Only found this thread now. Better late than never.

longshotvalue · 05-02-2011 10:43pm

thesandeman wrote: »

Oops! Only found this thread now. Better late than never.

Lucky You missed a few loosers today

.

Sandown 2:25
Reve De Sivola: Never was running well at all, and surely cant be anywhere near his best yet.

Sandown 3:00
Gee Dee Nen: Went of 100/1 on betfair , Ran very well and was still coasting until the 3rd last, when he made a terrible mistake.. He look a well handicapped horse to me and could well do something soon...

Sandown 3:35
Take the Breeze: Didnt Stay after looking the most likely winner 2 out.

Ffos Las: 2:40
Tarkari:, Looked sure to place 2nd as expected but made a big mistake at the last...

thesandeman · 06-02-2011 1:31am

True. Dont worry. Your guardian angel is back on your shoulder for tomorrow lol.
(Although its looking like we wont have any Irish racing).

longshotvalue · 06-02-2011 4:02pm

15:35 Musselburgh

Bocamix: This is just a case of his price being too big, altough he has gone up massivly in the weights, his second to last run was very good in the context of this race. There he had a few horses behind rated well above even his new rating of 130 and that kind of run again might just give him a decent shot of placing, he has a reasonable racing weight of 11:02.. Currently 48 win 10.5 place

1 Point win 2 Point Place

longshotvalue · 08-02-2011 1:47pm

Southwell 3:45

Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

2 Points win 2 points Place

longshotvalue · 08-02-2011 4:51pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Southwell 3:45

Masked Dance: Ticks a few boxes here, he is down to 70, has a good 3lbs claimer on board for the first time in a while. His last run can be excluded as he just didnt stay, but he was in front with 1 f to go over 8f. His 3rd last run over c&d to me looks good in the context of this race. he ran well here and i would put that run about 80 really , considering he conceeded weight all round and finished well. He looks a 7/1 shot to me at most, and is currently 12/1 generally and 14.5/3.3 on betfair.. I would think he is very likely to place here given that he stays further and is on a very low mark.

2 Points win 2 points Place

jeez absolutly flew in the end from last to just fail to get placed..:(

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 10:10am

totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
1 Point win 1 Point place.

Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Deloitte Novice Hurdle 2:45 Leopardstown

Si C'etait Vrai: Just looking at this race it appears to me that there is not a lot between the rest of the field apart from Zaidpour. This one should handle the ground and ran well last time over 2m4f at the course. He is currently double the price of The Bull Hayes having already beaten him before, and just looks value at currently 70 win and 8.4 place.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Bet On totescoop6 Handicap Chase Warwick 2:10

Panjo Bere: in a race with a lot of question marks over most of the runners, if he can be sparked back into form with the addition of blinkers, and reproduce the run is his second last race, he may be in with a shout here at a decent price. He is currently16/1 with Stan james
1 Point Eachway

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 10:29am

Tarkari: For me he ran an eye-catching race last week. He was obviously ridden for second and looked like achieving that until he made a mess of the last. Considering Black Jack Blues is rated 147, and the selection looked like overhauling him for second, his mark here of 132 looks very good. He is also due to go up 4lbs after this race. There are some negatives in that that race was only 7 days ago but the price reflects that and he looks value at current odds of 36.0 win and 7.0 place. He also seemed to be going well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham until falling 3 out.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

Non Runner

longshotvalue · 12-02-2011 11:13am

Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Newbury 1:55

Ackertac: We will have to forgive him his last run, but the stable is in flying form now and his form earlier this season puts him in here with a great shout, he is a few points bigger that i tough he would be at 14/1 with stanjames and is worthy of a small win bet at those odds. The decent ground 3miles around here should suit him.

1 Point win 14/1 Stanjames

longshotvalue · 13-02-2011 1:04pm

Ladbrokes.com Boyne Hurdle 2:50 Navan

Oscar Dan Dan: In this race it looks to me as if there is nothing between most of the contenders bar Vol la Ved, he has good form over the course on the ground and returned to form last time over a trip to far in Gowran. If the Fav can reproduce her hattons grace run where she wasnt loosing any ground at the end, shell be miles clear of these, but the selection looks overpriced of the rest.

1 Point win 15.0 Betfair 2 points place 3.55

1 Point Exacta Vol la Ved / Oscar

longshotvalue · 13-02-2011 1:36pm

Betfair Graduation Chase Exeter 3:10

The Sliotar: He was supported first time out this season , but jumped badly and pulled up. If there is any chance he can reproduce his form of last season where he beat Blazing Baily twice on soft ground, he will be overpriced here. Trainer and jock have a great record at this course and he just looks overpriced at 12 to win on betfair. i would this 8 is more realistic.

2 Points win 12.0

longshotvalue · 15-02-2011 2:13pm

Southwell. 1:50

Dickie Le Davoir: His last run in a seller where all the other runners were much higher rated, he finished well enough in the context of this poor race. He has raced of much higher in the past and is much higher on betfair than with any of the bookies. Currently 15.5 win. There was money for him earlier but he is being layed now. He is worth a point at that price.

1 Point win

longshotvalue · 16-02-2011 3:28pm

Punchestown 2:45

Mr Meaner: he was midfield in a much stronger race behind So Young at Leopardstown, and look overpriced to place here currently at 11.0 to place. 79 to win. This look a much easier race than that one and with normal improvement he might get into a place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 17-02-2011 6:32pm

aidankk wrote: »

totesport Trophy Hurdle 3:35 Newbury
Nearby: Having looked at his last handicap win of 145 in the Elite hurdle, he really won this well and did look as if he could stand another rise in the weights. He is running here of 150, and has the same 7lbs claimer that he has won with 3 times this season. It could be said that he was a bit disappointing in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, but that was a hot race, and he wasn't made to work hard when it was obvious he wasn't going to place. He has had a decent break since the end of November and hopefully is ready to do himself justice here. He looks overpriced at 90.0 win and 13.0 place.
1 Point win 1 Point place.

Running tomorrow at 1:50, in the rescheduled race. currently 65 win 10 place, still to big even tough the softer ground probably wont help.

longshotvalue · 17-02-2011 6:33pm

Newbury 12:10

Miss Overdrive : This one came second in a stonger C&D Race a couple or runs ago, and then ran well at chepstow as well. Has run 3 times on the course and placed each time. Also has form of soft going. She has a 7lbs claimer on this time that has got on well before. This really looks a missprice, i have it much shorter.

3 Pts Each Way 16/1 Bet365. also 20 win on betfair.

longshotvalue · 18-02-2011 10:15am

Newbury 1:50

Solix: This one has gone all the way out to 23 win 7.2 place, from fav last week, despite the fact that the soft going will clearly suit him. He has been out of the top drawer in france and may well be able to carry the weight around here. David Bass takes a very valuable 5lbs off and he is now looking value. There is clearly talent there considering the money for him last week, and i wouldnt be that surprised if he was able to get into it on the ground.

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue · 18-02-2011 5:13pm

Mayden 5:45

Frosty Secret: Ran well when pacemaking in a much tougher race last week here. 1 Furlong Shorter here should suit and if he can last the 7f he looks great value at 33/1 EW.

1 Point Each eay 33/1

longshotvalue · 19-02-2011 9:50am

totesport.com Grand National Trial 3:20 Haydock.

Carruthers: Although shorter than my usual type, his form looks rock solid compared to the rest of the field here. He has come down 8lbs for some reason after a decent run in the Hennessy, and is sure to appreciate the step up in trip and the soft going. He has a 5lbs claimer on tomorrow and of this mark may be very difficult to peg back. To me he just looks well treated and as such overpriced at 8.0, really he should be about 5.0 and favourite.
3 pts win 8.0.

Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Chase Ascot 2:25

The Sawyer: In my view he has been getting better with each run this year. He has just been to high in the handicap to do anything major yet this year, but he is in here off 6lbs below his last winning mark, with the 7lbs Claimer back on who has won on him before. His last run in a hot race at Cheltenham without the claimer on reads well considering he has dropped 3lbs and has an additional 7lbs off. He has run well over 3 miles in the past and is racing here carrying only 10:01 which will help. He is currently 20.0 to win on Betfair
2 pts win, 2 pts place

longshotvalue · 19-02-2011 9:53am

totesport.com Grand National Trial 3:20 Haydock.

Madison Du Berlais: I cant desert him now, and im hopeful that the slower pace here and a half decent handicap mark can help him stay on for a place or maybe better. He has looked a real stayer in recent years, and worth a smal bet

1 Point Each Way 33/1

longshotvalue · 23-02-2011 1:25pm

Doncaster 4:10

Night Orbit. This one just looks to big a price for his hurdles form of this mark. He has good form last year of higher marks, and is probably overpiced because of poor jumping in his last run over fences. His previous runs wernt to bad over fences this year and he has a decent flat run in early january as well. He is back over hurdles here over 3 miles on decent ground and it could be ideal.

1 Point each Way 50/1 Stan James

Probably better to back on betfair at 55 win and paying 4 places at 8.6, as there is 15 runners now

so 1 point win 1 point place

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 3:23pm

Sandown 4:35.

Dashing George: He has been running reasonably well this year in much stronger races of higher marks, and is in here of a decent mark of 119 over a 3mile trip on Soft Going which should really be ideal for him. He was effective in ireland on soft heavy over 3miles. He was well supported last time he ran in a similiar race but lost a shoe and was pulled up, but the previous reace signalled that he may be on the way back to good form. He now looks overpriced in this poorer race at 17 win 5.3 place

2 Points win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 3:37pm

Sandown 4:00

Aviador: Has been consistent in Novices and bumpers, and was well supported first time out in a handicap last time out, but its possible the 2 miles on good ground was not his thing. He has a decent record on softer going and the 2m4f around here on soft may be ideal. The booking of Richard Johnson might be significant as he has a 22% strike rate for the trainer in tha last 12 months.

2 Points Each way 25/1 VC..

jkelly85 · 25-02-2011 5:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Sandown 4:00

Aviador: Has been consistent in Novices and bumpers, and was well supported first time out in a handicap last time out, but its possible the 2 miles on good ground was not his thing. He has a decent record on softer going and the 2m4f around here on soft may be ideal. The booking of Richard Johnson might be significant as he has a 22% strike rate for the trainer in tha last 12 months.

2 Points Each way 25/1 VC..

SUPER SUPER STUFF

was on thanks

:D:D

jkelly85 · 25-02-2011 5:46pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Sandown 4:35.

Dashing George: He has been running reasonably well this year in much stronger races of higher marks, and is in here of a decent mark of 119 over a 3mile trip on Soft Going which should really be ideal for him. He was effective in ireland on soft heavy over 3miles. He was well supported last time he ran in a similiar race but lost a shoe and was pulled up, but the previous reace signalled that he may be on the way back to good form. He now looks overpriced in this poorer race at 17 win 5.3 place

2 Points win 2 Points Place

Unreal Man

that is some double

pints 2night i think

x PyRo · 25-02-2011 5:51pm

Unbelievable Jeff.

Well done Aidan. Class act.

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 6:09pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Unbelievable Jeff.

Well done Aidan. Class act.

Thakns Pyro going to cheltenham next month so its free now

longshotvalue · 26-02-2011 2:30am

Long Shot Saturday

Racing Post Chase 3:00 Kempton

Piraya: His last run behind Tatenan was eye-catching in that he really finished the race well to pass a lot of horses to get into 4th. It was over too short a trip of 2m 5f and the 3miles today should suit him better. He has been a consistent horse in the last 2 years and should stand an excellent chance of placing here at a big price. He has a massive weight turnaround with the winner of that race who is much shorter in the market. He is currently 50 win 7 place, and could get bigger in the place market tomorrow as the market strengthens
1 Point win 2 Points Place

totesport.com Eider 3:15 Newcastle

Flintoff: Once a very decent stayer for this type of event, he has been poor the last 2 years, but his last run over hurdles where he was staying on noticeably at the end, may have shown he is about the get back to form. This trip and ground should be perfect for him. He was second of a rating of 136 in the Midlands National 2 years ago, and if he is beginning to come back to form he would stand a decent chance here of a mark of 130. The stable is also in good form at the moment. He is currently 17 to win and should be bigger tomorrow.
2 Point win 2 Points Place.

Racing & Football Outlook Handicap Hurdle 4:10 Kempton

Gee Dee Nen: I had picked him for his last run and he ran really well until making a very bad mistake at the 3rd last. I would say the furlong shorter here and flatter track, with his regular jockey back on could give him a very decent chance at a good price. His run over the c&d last year when 3rd in a stronger race of a rating of 126 looks very good when he is back here off 122 in an easier race. He is currently 20 to win and could get a lot bigger as the market strengthens.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 26-02-2011 1:18pm

Racing Post Chase 3:00 Kempton

Free World: Im going for a just in case bet here with this one. This is a big step up in trip but he is the type of horse that might be able to creep around for the first 2miles and get into the race near the end. his run last year when second to French Opera was one of his only runs on Soft ground and was probably his best run ever. He looks overpriced at 50 win 8.4 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 10:32am

After 28 Bets using the advised points on each selection

+29.08 BSP and +55.7 Advised less betfair commission makes +24.68 & +49.97

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 10:57am

Leopardstown 3:20

Lilywhitedancer : Im surprised he is available at 9.8 on betfair to win this race. Its his first run this season, but a rating of 116 look very appealing considering his chase rating of 133. His win in navan on heavy ground in his maiden hurdle was very good and he obviously likes the heavy ground as he done all his chase winning on similiar. He surly cant go of at that price. He also won his bumper first time out and the stable is obviously well capable of having him ready for this.

3 Points win 9.8 Betfair or 8/1 Bet365..

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 12:44pm

Leopardstown 2:20

Made in Taipan: On Official rating and and the conditions of this race, he looks to be in here with a suberb chance at a half decent price. His last 2 chase runs have been a big improvement on his earlier for this year, and he has a decent amount in his favour here getting weight from all the shorter priced horses in the race. If he can be anywhere near his best hurdles form hell have a great shout. He is currently 9/1

2 Points win Ladborkes 9/1

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 10:02am

Double Dragon National Ale Of Wales Handicap Chase 4:30 Fos Las

Youngstown: This horse has been supported in every race this year, and has travelled well but not finished well enough. A drop back in trip here should help. He is also down to a mark of 116 from 122 and the combination should put him in with a great chance in this weaker race.

2 Points win 4/1 William Hill

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 2:31pm

2:20 Fos Las

Small Fry: Mid field in a gowran bumper, and then sold onto a trainer in form. Very good 7lbs claimer on. There seems to be enough unknown quantities and poor horses in the race for him to have a slight chance of placing, and looked overpriced to place.

.5 point win 160 betfair .5 point place 21.0

Min Bet

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 3:02pm

3:00 Leicester

Phoenix Des Mottes : Look a real stayer based on his run at this course over a shorter distance on soft 2 runs ago. This is a step up in trip which should suit and he looks a bit overpriced here at 13.5 on betfair. Not sure about the heavy ground but the pace of the race should be slow and its should suit him.

1 Point Win 13.5 Betfair

longshotvalue · 03-03-2011 10:55am

Forbra Gold Challenge Cup 4:00 Ludlow

Pigeon Island: I cant understand his price in this race today. In my view he has run well in the 2 best 2m5f races in cheltenham this year. in both cases he has looked like the extra distance would only help. He was outpaced early on both races but in fairness these are the quickest 2m5f races all year and he finished really wel in his last race. He has good ground here which will help and has some down a few pound this year. He is only 4 lbs higher than his win at the festival last year and this race is much lower class than any runs he's had in a long time. Currently 13 win 3.4 place

..

2 Points win 2 Points place

longshotvalue · 03-03-2011 7:03pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Forbra Gold Challenge Cup 4:00 Ludlow

Pigeon Island: I cant understand his price in this race today. In my view he has run well in the 2 best 2m5f races in cheltenham this year. in both cases he has looked like the extra distance would only help. He was outpaced early on both races but in fairness these are the quickest 2m5f races all year and he finished really wel in his last race. He has good ground here which will help and has some down a few pound this year. He is only 4 lbs higher than his win at the festival last year and this race is much lower class than any runs he's had in a long time. Currently 13 win 3.4 place..

2 Points win 2 Points place

ran on well to place 3rd from miles behind..:)

longshotvalue · 04-03-2011 11:16pm

Long Shot Saturday

Grimthorpe Chase 3:14 Doncaster

Minella Four Star: His last run when running a very good race behind Blazing Baily at Ffos Las, looks very good and he really stuck on at the end. He is up 3lbs for that run but that looks more than fair. The stable has been getting into form in the last few weeks, and the conditions tomorrow of 3m2f on good ground looks to be his ideal. He has a very decent record in good ground and has been consistent lately. He looks overpriced at 8.4 and id expect him to go of shorter tomorrow.

2 Point win

Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase 2:25 Newbury

Magic Sky: His early season form would put him in with an excellent chance here, but he has been poor enough since. In a lot of his runs since the ground or trip haven’t been ideal. He is back here in a veterans race over a trip that should suit and his poorer runs have made him the outsider of the field. Any recovery of his form at all, which was hinted at slightly in his last run over too short a trip, would make him look excellent value. Currently 38 win 7.8 place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Wiltshire County Show Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase 3:00 Newbury

Take The Breeze: I've picked him a few times this year and he has run well each time, but he looks to have a lot in his favour for this race. There is a decent bit of cut in the ground over 2m4f which should be ideal. He has travelled well in both his 3 mile races this year but looked not to stay. He has very good form as a novice on softer ground and has a very good 5lbs claimer on for this race, which will bring him down to a racing weight of 11:07. He is currently overpriced at 15.5 win 3.5 place

2 Points win 2 points Place

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle 3:35 Newbury

Ned Ludd: He has been a very inconsistent horse in the last few years but he has always been better on softer going and ran very well in his first Hurdles race this year when 2nd at fontwell when they pulled a long way clear of the 3rd albeit over a longer trip. He was poor at cheltenham after that but has had a break and a decent run on the flat since and may be ready to do himself justice. Currently 48 win 10.5 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

longshotvalue · 05-03-2011 10:39am

Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase 2:25 Newbury

The Sawyer: Im surprised that 8.4 is available for this one today, he has been improving with every run this year. the step up in trip and move into a veterans race should really suit him as his only issue at all has been getting outpaced during the race , which shouldnt happen today. I have him really are more of a 3/1 fav here. He is in here with 11:00 including the 7lbs claim and may be very difficult to pass.

3 Points win

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 11:30am

Lucan Racing Leinster National Handicap Chase 4:30 naas

Good Fella: I have picked him before, but his last run was encouraging at Gowran over too short a trip, where he ran on really well in the end. He is a formally top novice who is down to a very winable mark. He is lightly raced and may be about to do something decent at a good price. He was bigger on betfair earlier but is down to only 18 now, altough betfair markets on irish racing are very poor early on.

2 Points each way 25/1SkyBET.

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 11:35am

4:00 Naas

Silk Affair: Going on gut feeling here. formally very good novice who won the fred winter at the festival. He is in here on a very low mark, and has a load of entried for the festival but probably wont get into anything of this mark. Hopefully he is out to try today, and will need to get his mark up to get into something decent at aintree or punchestown. The slightly better ground today will help.

1 Point each way 20/1

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 12:40pm

First Festival Antepost

RSA Chase

The Giant Bolster: He has a lot of whats required for this race. He has won of the course. He is a tought battler, has festival form 6th in the Neptune last year only 7lengths behind Peddlers Cross (and came up the hill very well). He looks a dour stayer judging by his last run where he looked to be struggling a long way out, but really put his head down and grinded it out. I would love something like 16/1 EW with out the FAv and thats what ill probably do on the day but i cant find a without the fav market at the moment. Despite that i really fancy him to place here.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 generally (27 win 7.2 place betfair)

longshotvalue · 07-03-2011 9:50am

4:00 Ffos Las

Mae Cigan: This time last year over C&D and better ground this one finished 2nd in probably a better race of 2lbs higher. Could well be ready to run today,and is still a decent price ( i meant to post this last night when it was 16/1

). Look a good ground horse so it runs of soft lately can be forgive.

1 Point win 11/1 William Hill.

Good Fella placed yesterday at 25/1:)

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 11:11am

Exeter 4:00

Oscar Prairie: Was backed into fav for his first run over fences in a half decent handicap. His jumping was poor near the end, but he ran on really well from the second last to make up a decent amount of ground. The step up in trip here is sure to suit and there doesnt look to be anything major in the race to worry about ratings wise in this novice chase. He looks well overpriced at 20 win 6.2 place betfair

2 Points win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 11:56am

Exeter 3:30

Peut Etre Sivola: He is a reasonably consistant horse in this type of contest and looks massively overpriced on betfair at 44 win 7.8 place. Last year he finished a good second in a similiar race on good-soft, and was 3rd in the sussex national jan this year of 1 lbs higher. The fav is from the same stable which is maybe the reasoning behind the big price but stanger things have happenned.

1 Point win 2 Points Place Betfair

100 Bets to broke NH Finale

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