100 Bets to broke NH Finale

x PyRo · 25-02-2011 5:51pm

Unbelievable Jeff.

Well done Aidan. Class act.

longshotvalue · 25-02-2011 6:09pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Unbelievable Jeff.

Well done Aidan. Class act.

Thakns Pyro going to cheltenham next month so its free now

longshotvalue · 26-02-2011 2:30am

Long Shot Saturday

Racing Post Chase 3:00 Kempton

Piraya: His last run behind Tatenan was eye-catching in that he really finished the race well to pass a lot of horses to get into 4th. It was over too short a trip of 2m 5f and the 3miles today should suit him better. He has been a consistent horse in the last 2 years and should stand an excellent chance of placing here at a big price. He has a massive weight turnaround with the winner of that race who is much shorter in the market. He is currently 50 win 7 place, and could get bigger in the place market tomorrow as the market strengthens
1 Point win 2 Points Place

totesport.com Eider 3:15 Newcastle

Flintoff: Once a very decent stayer for this type of event, he has been poor the last 2 years, but his last run over hurdles where he was staying on noticeably at the end, may have shown he is about the get back to form. This trip and ground should be perfect for him. He was second of a rating of 136 in the Midlands National 2 years ago, and if he is beginning to come back to form he would stand a decent chance here of a mark of 130. The stable is also in good form at the moment. He is currently 17 to win and should be bigger tomorrow.
2 Point win 2 Points Place.

Racing & Football Outlook Handicap Hurdle 4:10 Kempton

Gee Dee Nen: I had picked him for his last run and he ran really well until making a very bad mistake at the 3rd last. I would say the furlong shorter here and flatter track, with his regular jockey back on could give him a very decent chance at a good price. His run over the c&d last year when 3rd in a stronger race of a rating of 126 looks very good when he is back here off 122 in an easier race. He is currently 20 to win and could get a lot bigger as the market strengthens.
1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 26-02-2011 1:18pm

Racing Post Chase 3:00 Kempton

Free World: Im going for a just in case bet here with this one. This is a big step up in trip but he is the type of horse that might be able to creep around for the first 2miles and get into the race near the end. his run last year when second to French Opera was one of his only runs on Soft ground and was probably his best run ever. He looks overpriced at 50 win 8.4 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 10:32am

After 28 Bets using the advised points on each selection

+29.08 BSP and +55.7 Advised less betfair commission makes +24.68 & +49.97

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 10:57am

Leopardstown 3:20

Lilywhitedancer : Im surprised he is available at 9.8 on betfair to win this race. Its his first run this season, but a rating of 116 look very appealing considering his chase rating of 133. His win in navan on heavy ground in his maiden hurdle was very good and he obviously likes the heavy ground as he done all his chase winning on similiar. He surly cant go of at that price. He also won his bumper first time out and the stable is obviously well capable of having him ready for this.

3 Points win 9.8 Betfair or 8/1 Bet365..

longshotvalue · 27-02-2011 12:44pm

Leopardstown 2:20

Made in Taipan: On Official rating and and the conditions of this race, he looks to be in here with a suberb chance at a half decent price. His last 2 chase runs have been a big improvement on his earlier for this year, and he has a decent amount in his favour here getting weight from all the shorter priced horses in the race. If he can be anywhere near his best hurdles form hell have a great shout. He is currently 9/1

2 Points win Ladborkes 9/1

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 10:02am

Double Dragon National Ale Of Wales Handicap Chase 4:30 Fos Las

Youngstown: This horse has been supported in every race this year, and has travelled well but not finished well enough. A drop back in trip here should help. He is also down to a mark of 116 from 122 and the combination should put him in with a great chance in this weaker race.

2 Points win 4/1 William Hill

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 2:31pm

2:20 Fos Las

Small Fry: Mid field in a gowran bumper, and then sold onto a trainer in form. Very good 7lbs claimer on. There seems to be enough unknown quantities and poor horses in the race for him to have a slight chance of placing, and looked overpriced to place.

.5 point win 160 betfair .5 point place 21.0

Min Bet

longshotvalue · 01-03-2011 3:02pm

3:00 Leicester

Phoenix Des Mottes : Look a real stayer based on his run at this course over a shorter distance on soft 2 runs ago. This is a step up in trip which should suit and he looks a bit overpriced here at 13.5 on betfair. Not sure about the heavy ground but the pace of the race should be slow and its should suit him.

1 Point Win 13.5 Betfair

longshotvalue · 03-03-2011 10:55am

Forbra Gold Challenge Cup 4:00 Ludlow

Pigeon Island: I cant understand his price in this race today. In my view he has run well in the 2 best 2m5f races in cheltenham this year. in both cases he has looked like the extra distance would only help. He was outpaced early on both races but in fairness these are the quickest 2m5f races all year and he finished really wel in his last race. He has good ground here which will help and has some down a few pound this year. He is only 4 lbs higher than his win at the festival last year and this race is much lower class than any runs he's had in a long time. Currently 13 win 3.4 place

..

2 Points win 2 Points place

longshotvalue · 03-03-2011 7:03pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Forbra Gold Challenge Cup 4:00 Ludlow

Pigeon Island: I cant understand his price in this race today. In my view he has run well in the 2 best 2m5f races in cheltenham this year. in both cases he has looked like the extra distance would only help. He was outpaced early on both races but in fairness these are the quickest 2m5f races all year and he finished really wel in his last race. He has good ground here which will help and has some down a few pound this year. He is only 4 lbs higher than his win at the festival last year and this race is much lower class than any runs he's had in a long time. Currently 13 win 3.4 place..

2 Points win 2 Points place

ran on well to place 3rd from miles behind..:)

longshotvalue · 04-03-2011 11:16pm

Long Shot Saturday

Grimthorpe Chase 3:14 Doncaster

Minella Four Star: His last run when running a very good race behind Blazing Baily at Ffos Las, looks very good and he really stuck on at the end. He is up 3lbs for that run but that looks more than fair. The stable has been getting into form in the last few weeks, and the conditions tomorrow of 3m2f on good ground looks to be his ideal. He has a very decent record in good ground and has been consistent lately. He looks overpriced at 8.4 and id expect him to go of shorter tomorrow.

2 Point win

Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase 2:25 Newbury

Magic Sky: His early season form would put him in with an excellent chance here, but he has been poor enough since. In a lot of his runs since the ground or trip haven’t been ideal. He is back here in a veterans race over a trip that should suit and his poorer runs have made him the outsider of the field. Any recovery of his form at all, which was hinted at slightly in his last run over too short a trip, would make him look excellent value. Currently 38 win 7.8 place

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Wiltshire County Show Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase 3:00 Newbury

Take The Breeze: I've picked him a few times this year and he has run well each time, but he looks to have a lot in his favour for this race. There is a decent bit of cut in the ground over 2m4f which should be ideal. He has travelled well in both his 3 mile races this year but looked not to stay. He has very good form as a novice on softer ground and has a very good 5lbs claimer on for this race, which will bring him down to a racing weight of 11:07. He is currently overpriced at 15.5 win 3.5 place

2 Points win 2 points Place

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle 3:35 Newbury

Ned Ludd: He has been a very inconsistent horse in the last few years but he has always been better on softer going and ran very well in his first Hurdles race this year when 2nd at fontwell when they pulled a long way clear of the 3rd albeit over a longer trip. He was poor at cheltenham after that but has had a break and a decent run on the flat since and may be ready to do himself justice. Currently 48 win 10.5 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

longshotvalue · 05-03-2011 10:39am

Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase 2:25 Newbury

The Sawyer: Im surprised that 8.4 is available for this one today, he has been improving with every run this year. the step up in trip and move into a veterans race should really suit him as his only issue at all has been getting outpaced during the race , which shouldnt happen today. I have him really are more of a 3/1 fav here. He is in here with 11:00 including the 7lbs claim and may be very difficult to pass.

3 Points win

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 11:30am

Lucan Racing Leinster National Handicap Chase 4:30 naas

Good Fella: I have picked him before, but his last run was encouraging at Gowran over too short a trip, where he ran on really well in the end. He is a formally top novice who is down to a very winable mark. He is lightly raced and may be about to do something decent at a good price. He was bigger on betfair earlier but is down to only 18 now, altough betfair markets on irish racing are very poor early on.

2 Points each way 25/1SkyBET.

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 11:35am

4:00 Naas

Silk Affair: Going on gut feeling here. formally very good novice who won the fred winter at the festival. He is in here on a very low mark, and has a load of entried for the festival but probably wont get into anything of this mark. Hopefully he is out to try today, and will need to get his mark up to get into something decent at aintree or punchestown. The slightly better ground today will help.

1 Point each way 20/1

longshotvalue · 06-03-2011 12:40pm

First Festival Antepost

RSA Chase

The Giant Bolster: He has a lot of whats required for this race. He has won of the course. He is a tought battler, has festival form 6th in the Neptune last year only 7lengths behind Peddlers Cross (and came up the hill very well). He looks a dour stayer judging by his last run where he looked to be struggling a long way out, but really put his head down and grinded it out. I would love something like 16/1 EW with out the FAv and thats what ill probably do on the day but i cant find a without the fav market at the moment. Despite that i really fancy him to place here.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 generally (27 win 7.2 place betfair)

longshotvalue · 07-03-2011 9:50am

4:00 Ffos Las

Mae Cigan: This time last year over C&D and better ground this one finished 2nd in probably a better race of 2lbs higher. Could well be ready to run today,and is still a decent price ( i meant to post this last night when it was 16/1

). Look a good ground horse so it runs of soft lately can be forgive.

1 Point win 11/1 William Hill.

Good Fella placed yesterday at 25/1:)

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 11:11am

Exeter 4:00

Oscar Prairie: Was backed into fav for his first run over fences in a half decent handicap. His jumping was poor near the end, but he ran on really well from the second last to make up a decent amount of ground. The step up in trip here is sure to suit and there doesnt look to be anything major in the race to worry about ratings wise in this novice chase. He looks well overpriced at 20 win 6.2 place betfair

2 Points win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 11:56am

Exeter 3:30

Peut Etre Sivola: He is a reasonably consistant horse in this type of contest and looks massively overpriced on betfair at 44 win 7.8 place. Last year he finished a good second in a similiar race on good-soft, and was 3rd in the sussex national jan this year of 1 lbs higher. The fav is from the same stable which is maybe the reasoning behind the big price but stanger things have happenned.

1 Point win 2 Points Place Betfair

longshotvalue · 08-03-2011 1:40pm

Festival Antipost no2

Coral Cup: Barizan: He has been poor on unsuitable ground all year, but i had a feeling he would appear of a good mark on his favourite course on favourable ground. Trainer says he is flying at the moment compared to earlier on this year. And with a decent racing weight there is a very decent chance he'll never be caught.. He may run in the martin pipe but is near the top of the weights in that so id prefer if he ran here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Paddy Power & other Non runner No Bet...

longshotvalue · 09-03-2011 9:44am

aidankkk wrote: »

Festival Antipost no2

Coral Cup: Barizan: He has been poor on unsuitable ground all year, but i had a feeling he would appear of a good mark on his favourite course on favourable ground. Trainer says he is flying at the moment compared to earlier on this year. And with a decent racing weight there is a very decent chance he'll never be caught.. He may run in the martin pipe but is near the top of the weights in that so id prefer if he ran here.

2 Points Each Way 33/1 Paddy Power & other Non runner No Bet...

He is available at 66/1 Win coral Nrnb paying 1/4 12345..... Epic value

longshotvalue · 09-03-2011 5:16pm

Last minute, extra longshot

Navan 4:15 which is delayed a bit

Lasquini Du Moulin: Formally good horse who did show a lilking for decent ground. His second last run might give him a shot here stepped up in trip. worth a min bet at huge odds just in case he can show same form again. Betfair 100 win 16 place

.5 points win .5 point place

longshotvalue · 10-03-2011 1:47pm

Festival Antipost no3

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase Tue 2:40

Fair Along:I loved the look of his last run over fences where he just failed to haul down Noland and What a fiend. That form of his mark here of 148 and racing weight of 11:04 looks exceptional and he must have a great chance of placing at least. He has very good course form and is higher rater over hurdles

2 Points each way 25/1 Non runn No Bet Various

longshotvalue · 10-03-2011 3:04pm

Festival Antipost no4

Pertemps Final

Kayf Aramis: He is down 6 lbs from last years good 5th in this race, the stable is getting back into form and he is only carrying 10:07 at the moment. He shouldnt go up to much but of his mark he looks great value to place at least, as hes a tough consistant horse. His last run on suitable ground was decent in that the other runners were higher rated of level weights. Here good ground and light weight make placing in my view evens or better so 25/1 ew looks great value.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 NRNB

longshotvalue · 12-03-2011 11:18am

Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

Total Minefield here, but im going to give Drill Seargant another chance. Sods law would have it that the first time hes not backed he win. He was jumping well in his second last race when brought down, and he is only carrying 9:12 here with the claimer on who was giving him a confident ride then. Good ground here should help altough he has form on most ground. His last run was poor enough so well have to discount that, and it is possible that this was the target all along. One of the better flat horses to go jumping this year and really should stay out this stiff 2miles.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 12345 Bet365.

longshotvalue · 12-03-2011 12:04pm

1:55 Sandown

Owen Glendower: Not BGs choice but looks to have some of the best form in the race, and it cant have been that easy. Won on soft over 2m1, so this stiff 2 miles might just suit him, he looks a great Each Way prospect, and is carrying only 11:01 which looks fair enough. Overpriced

2 Points Each Way 16/1 EW various

longshotvalue · 13-03-2011 10:54am

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Im totally unsure about the principles in this race and it looks a poor renewal, but Giorgio Quercus does look overpriced. His last run against Dan Breen where he got the race in the stewarts room, showed a decent amount of grit and determination to get back at him after he got away a bit. To my mind he looks a better horse, and his previous performance on better ground was eyecatching even if it was a weaker race. I get the feeling 2miles on decent ground may give hima good chance of placeing and he looks overpriced mainly because the stable has Finans Rainbow as well. Dan breen is 14/1 and the selection is 33/1 which i cant make sense of.

1 Point EW 33/1

UrbanSea · 13-03-2011 2:07pm

I couldn't understand the price difference either aidan was looking at it this morning.

longshotvalue · 14-03-2011 7:31pm

Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase 5:15

Nadiya De La Vega : Very good form in beating Pepo Simo, in a decent novice chase earlier on this season, he did disappoint in a Grade 1 at Sandown since, but may have been eased down when his chance was gone. He is the choice of 3 decent changes from the Henderson Yard for Barry Geraghty, and looks well overpriced at 27 win 5.5 place.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

100 Bets to broke NH Finale

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