SBP Poll 12th Feb - FG 38, FF 15, Lab 20, SF 10, GP 3, Ind 14

hotmail.com · 12-02-2011 05:13PM #1

Sunday Business Post/Red C poll: FG: 38% (+3), Labour: 20% (-2), FF: 15% (-2), SF: 10% (-3), Greens: 3% (+1), Independents: 14% (+3).

FG heading for 70 seats zone, still not enough to form a single party government. Kenny won the TV3 debate.

Martin bounce is truely dead - his handshake must be to blame here.

If Lab gets 20%, they may end losing seats because they are running too many candidates.

SF going nowhere.

GP are within the margin of error - enough said.

Lots of Independents in the next Dail.

GSF · 12-02-2011 05:23PM

Its begining to look like an FG tidal wave is building.

Bottle_of_Smoke · 12-02-2011 05:30PM

MAybe a FG/Independents coalition possible

Rubik. · 12-02-2011 05:31PM

They are still well short of the 83 seats needed for a majority though. Their own internal poll "leaked" to The Mail has them on 70 seats as well.

Sulmac · 12-02-2011 05:33PM

Just to add to that, the number of 'undecideds' has fallen by 3 points to 17%.

dlofnep · 12-02-2011 05:34PM

I'm surpised at this as Enda shyed away from the latest debate. Perhaps it was to his benefit afterall. I think we'll see a change in these as more debates take place.

GSF · 12-02-2011 05:35PM

Rubik. wrote: »

They are still well short of the 83 seats needed for a majority though. Their own internal poll "leaked" to The Mail has them on 70 seats as well.

Not necessarily - the math is going to be funny this time because you have SF, FF and Lab @ 10/15/20 respectively. Previously in the early 80's it was a 2 horse race. 38% is worth a lot more in a 4 horse race than in a 2 way contest.

Rubik. · 12-02-2011 05:37PM

dlofnep wrote: »

I think we'll see a change in these as more debates take place.

I don't know, Martin was supposed to have won the last TV debate - yet FF are down 2%.

GSF · 12-02-2011 05:38PM

Rubik. wrote: »

I don't know, Martin was supposed to have won the last TV debate - yet FF are down 2%.

FG would be happy for Martin to "win" all the debates if their vote share keeps dropping afterwards

Sergeant · 12-02-2011 05:42PM

Debates have very little influence on me personally. Carefully crafted sound bites as rehearsed earlier with their PR team from Carr or O'Herlihy Communications. I think their influence is overstated by the media.

ilovesleep · 12-02-2011 05:47PM

How does this compare to the boards.ie poll

12-02-2011 05:54PM

ilovesleep wrote: »

How does this compare to the boards.ie poll

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

DeVore · 12-02-2011 05:59PM

I would be very interested to know how they polled this, how many people they polled and how. Our poll has issues but they are at least known issues which can be corrected for.

I think our poll will have FF too low simply because we are missing some of their core vote in our pool of voters and SF/Lab too high because they are more active online and more prevalent in the younger voters.

I dont think we're as far off as people might think we are... every week these RedC and MRBI polls vary quite a bit, while our poll has been rock steady suggesting to me that variance is at play in theirs simply because they poll only about 1000 people accross 40 consituencies. Thats 25 per constituency or 12/13 men and women. Very easy for that to vary by simple chance imho.

DeV.

the groutch · 12-02-2011 06:03PM

hopefully this poll in inacurate, the last thing we need is FG running hte country on their own, with no real accountability

DeVore · 12-02-2011 06:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

True but at a national level such activity has no impact.

DeV.

DeVore · 12-02-2011 06:07PM

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

kev9100 · 12-02-2011 06:21PM

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Unfortunately, thats what it looks like.

To be honest, the national polls are far less important than local ones.

john ff · 12-02-2011 06:26PM

Hi,Some of our great leaders were valued for the substance which they brought to Government. The media appears to sell us the image. In this election people are looking for substance in the form of integrity and sincerity. Debating masters are just debating masters and carry little value in times of need. Polls are bound to reflect this as people realise that they were duped in previous elections.

nesf · 12-02-2011 06:29PM

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Yes and no. Support for a party is quite different because party candidates transfer so strongly between each other. Independent candidates don't follow this pattern really and if 3 or 4 Independents split the Independent vote it can easily mean no Independent gets elected.

mike65 · 12-02-2011 06:37PM

Does Fine Gael now have "the Big Mo"? Fianna Fail are clearly a busted flush twice over, Labour are stalling as they finally come under scutiny (a few weeks ago it was Eamo for taoiseach!) the rest won't decide the result. The independents will most likely take votes off FF (for being shifty ****e) or Labour (for not being socialist enough).

12-02-2011 06:42PM

DeVore wrote: »

True but at a national level such activity has no impact.

DeV.

Agreed unless a lot of them are facebook campaigning people to vote in the poll.I've just seen two so far.
Don't get me wrong,this boards virtual election,I like, notwithstanding some issues like that,the under 18's , people abroad and non irish voting.

You can change your vote in the boards poll which is cool and I presume that is tailored to reflect changes in public opinion.
However it could only work accurately if everybody is re-polled and not depending on a random decision to come back and change yours.
I don't know if it's possible to add a week on week change in the vote percentage?
Very few elections are devoid of some variations in opinion during them-though this one like the snow in november is like no other I've ever seen so who knows what will happen.
Fascinating nonetheless.

Regarding red C or any other conventional opinion poll,I'm sure they have their faults like the one you mentioned.
I don't know enough though about how they frame their "representative sample" to be able to comment to be honest.
Probably some internationally recognized or proven convention though.

Rubik. · 12-02-2011 07:11PM

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

steelcityblues · 12-02-2011 07:15PM

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Many of them will have surnames like Behan, Healy Rae, McGrath, Lowry, etc. so don't expect genuine independent views.

Dozen Wicked Words · 12-02-2011 07:18PM

So would this suggest ULA are in line to not win any seats at all, or are they considered Independant in this poll?

gandalf · 12-02-2011 07:19PM

RedC are normally fairly accurate regarding their previous polls. So I would put some faith in their poll.

I would say with regard to the boards poll that the FG figure is accurate, the FF is totally understated and the Labour/SF & Greens percentages are definately overstated.

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

hotmail.com · 12-02-2011 07:33PM

gandalf wrote: »

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

Martin is linked with FF's 14 years in power, I wouldn't be surprised if he's ousted sometime after the election.

rainbowdash · 12-02-2011 07:35PM

Rubik. wrote: »

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

So if its the biggest party in the polls that gets the swing again it would be FG on 45%!!!

nesf · 12-02-2011 07:36PM

gandalf wrote: »

RedC are normally fairly accurate regarding their previous polls. So I would put some faith in their poll.

I would say with regard to the boards poll that the FG figure is accurate, the FF is totally understated and the Labour/SF & Greens percentages are definately overstated.

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

I'd say FG is underestimated as well personally given the very strong FG/FF leanings of the older generation who are underrepresented.

county man · 12-02-2011 07:45PM

Rubik. wrote: »

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

Was that poll published before or after the TV debate between Ahern and Kenny during that election?

Rubik. · 12-02-2011 07:47PM

county man wrote: »

Was that poll published before or after the TV debate between Ahern and Kenny during that election?

The debate was on the 17th May, so before.

Amtmann · 12-02-2011 08:23PM

If FG manage 38% on the 25th, this will give them around 76 seats. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if they reached 39 or even 40% by polling day. This could give them an overall majority, or enough seats to form a government with Independents.

What are the reasons for what looks like a growing FG surge? It seems:

People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

SBP Poll 12th Feb - FG 38, FF 15, Lab 20, SF 10, GP 3, Ind 14

Comments