SBP Poll 12th Feb - FG 38, FF 15, Lab 20, SF 10, GP 3, Ind 14

rainbowdash

Tremelo wrote: »

If FG manage 38% on the 25th, this will give them around 76 seats. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if they reached 39 or even 40% by polling day. This could give them an overall majority, or enough seats to form a government with Independents.

What are the reasons for what looks like a growing FG surge? It seems:

1. People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
2. People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
3. People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
4. Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
5. People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
6. People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

We need a government and we don't want Fianna Fail. In 2007 when push came to shove people went with FF. This time its FG that people are backing because there is nothing else.

I think its as simple as that.

Sergeant

Tremelo wrote: »

1. People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
2. People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
3. People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
4. Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
5. People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
6. People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

I'd agree with every point except the last one. I still think Kenny is costing FG votes, and that the party handlers cannot keep him out of the spotlight for much longer. I've no doubt he has good leadership skills, he did help to rebuild that party after the 2002 election. And I'm told he is a genuinely nice man, with excellent one-to-one people skills. But he comes across as unsure on TV and Radio. Wooden.

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

NSNO

Don't forget the 'leading party push' that happens every election. The party in the lead in the last week before an election always gets a boost from undecided voters come polling day. If FG are on 38% come polling day then I'd be surprised if they didn't get 41% at minimum .

johngalway

Sergeant wrote: »

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

I don't agree with that assessment. It's Kenny who has reorganized FG, and it's that reorganization which has FG where it is today - with a little help from FF perhaps. Solid foundation etc.

RetroBate

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

I can just see the headline on the 27th.

"It Was The Sindo Wot Won It"

ilovesleep

Sergeant wrote: »

I'd agree with every point except the last one. I still think Kenny is costing FG votes, and that the party handlers cannot keep him out of the spotlight for much longer. I've no doubt he has good leadership skills, he did help to rebuild that party after the 2002 election. And I'm told he is a genuinely nice man, with excellent one-to-one people skills. But he comes across as unsure on TV and Radio. Wooden.

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

Not as wooden as Cowen!

Reilly616

My gut feeling is to doubt the validity or import of a 1000 person sample of a group of probably over 2 million eventual voters. Would anyone care to explain to me why my gut feeling is wrong, mathematically speaking? Or, conversely, am I wrong to assume my gut feeling is wrong?

Min

Those people who are paid to follow Eamon Gilmore with Gilmore for Taoiseach are making the Labour party look more deluded with every day that passes.

More like Gilmore v Martin for opposition leader.

steelcityblues

Still doubt that FG can get over the 70 seat mark.

Right leaning independents, esp. in Dublin, have the potential to cost them enough votes.

DeVore

Humans are terrible at the outliers of maths. We rarely have to predict the actions of 2 Million anythings so our brains are not well configured for estimating such things.

Mathematically speaking a sample set of 1000 should be capable of predicting the votes of the 1M+ or so who will vote to within +-3 at the 95% confidence threshold. That wont make much sense probably but in laymans terms, yeah 1000 is enough to give you a decent idea whats going on.

Making it 10,000 is obviously better but not by as much as you might think... your variance might be +-1 more accurate.


What I hate about those polls is that they rarely really explain how they are taken so its hard to peer-review their methods.

DeV.

Reilly616

DeVore wrote: »

Humans are terrible at the outliers of maths. We rarely have to predict the actions of 2 Million anythings so our brains are not well configured for estimating such things.

Mathematically speaking a sample set of 1000 should be capable of predicting the votes of the 1M+ or so who will vote to within +-3 at the 95% confidence threshold. That wont make much sense probably but in laymans terms, yeah 1000 is enough to give you a decent idea whats going on.

Making it 10,000 is obviously better but not by as much as you might think... your variance might be +-1 more accurate.


What I hate about those polls is that they rarely really explain how they are taken so its hard to peer-review their methods.

DeV.

Thanks. I understand about our inability to accurately visualise the large and the small without maths, hence my assumption and question.

It does make sense, thanks, I wouldn't even mind something more technical! I can ask my girlfriend tomorrow, she's always doing surveys for her course. She's often complained about their sample sizes being too small, thus screwing up their reports with idiotic results. But, yeah, I should probably wiki how adequate sample size is calculated... it's been bugging me. :P

Lame Lantern

Shocked by this poll. The fact that Fine Gael's if anything more regressive policies are benefiting from the rage directed at the sitting government, as well as the utterly nonsensical press FG has received over the last week, this is truly a testament to the fundamental ineptness of the electorate to scrutinise what they're voting for.

Giving Fine Gael the vote while their leader refuses to speak to the people, while they publish vague policies the sum of which are to continue the policies of Fianna Fáil and while their post-heave party structure is so riddled with gombeenism as to put the last administration to shame is so maddeningly stupid.

Enda Kenny will limp his way into office based purely on the blind, idiotic rage of the public to be quite possibly our most inept Taoiseach yet.

DeVore

To be absolutely honest. I think people are afraid that Labour hasnt cleaned its house of Loony Lefties and most Irish people are sick of the poor service we get from the Public Sector and Labour wont tackle that in their minds (and possibly thats true too).

Once you reach that conclusion, the only sane choices are FG or Independent. And thats what this polls delta from that last time it was published shows is happening.


DeV.

meglome

GSF wrote: »

Its begining to look like an FG tidal wave is building.

Well from my talking to whomever I come across lately they're seen as our best hope. Many of us would like better choices but other than some of the independents that choice isn't there.

meglome

DeVore wrote: »

To be absolutely honest. I think people are afraid that Labour hasnt cleaned its house of Loony Lefties and most Irish people are sick of the poor service we get from the Public Sector and Labour wont tackle that in their minds (and possibly thats true too).

Once you reach that conclusion, the only sane choices are FG or Independent. And thats what this polls delta from that last time it was published shows is happening.

DeV.

Didn't see your post when I posted my but I've come to the same conclusion. That and Labour have been doing a little too much of telling people what they want to hear and we've had way too much of that.

Reilly616

I'll be interested to see how the debates affect the polls, especially concerning Kenny. I'd assume the Irish debate will have little effect. If the frontline debate isn't in a totally new format, but rather the regular shouting match, badly regulated by Pat, then that mightn't effect a great change either. The final debate could be too late...

Mario Daniel

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

Not entirely correct: Boards.ie will block voting from abroad. This can be verified because each time you connect your IP will identify you as being abroad. It can have perverse effects, I know someone who works for a multinational in Dublin and his email goes through the company's tunnel in London. Most sites think he connects from England.

The main problem is that most people on Boards.ie used to be 18-35 years old. However, this might change if many people register just to vote. I've also noticed a big jump in the vote in the last 10 hours in all constituencies.

rainbowdash

rainbowdash wrote: »

We need a government and we don't want Fianna Fail. In 2007 when push came to shove people went with FF. This time its FG that people are backing because there is nothing else.

I think its as simple as that.

yeah there is a wide range of left wing options but very little right wing choice - even FG are fairly center right.

nesf

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Giving Fine Gael the vote while their leader refuses to speak to the people, while they publish vague policies the sum of which are to continue the policies of Fianna Fáil and while their post-heave party structure is so riddled with gombeenism as to put the last administration to shame is so maddeningly stupid.

How are their policies vague though? Compared to Labour (which is the other main Opposition choice for most people) FG have very detailed plans laid out about what they'd do to Health etc. Labour have offered us a bunch of bullet points that are not connected chronologically. FF have offered us something very solid on political reform and the economy but are fairly non-existent in other areas.

Yes FG haven't exactly detailed everything they would do but they don't know if they'll be in single party + independent Government or coalition with Labour yet and really are not in a position to say "this is exactly what we'll do and we'll do only this in Government."

The one thing that's impressed me about FG (and to a much lesser extent FF on some issues) is that there's a broad overarching plan to their proposals. In Health point a) leads to point b) which leads to point c) for FG while Labour have merely offered us a bunch of policy points and no idea about which they'll do first, what they'll prioritise or how they all fit together.

craigybagel

Mario Daniel wrote: »

Not entirely correct: Boards.ie will block voting from abroad. This can be verified because each time you connect your IP will identify you as being abroad. It can have perverse effects, I know someone who works for a multinational in Dublin and his email goes through the company's tunnel in London. Most sites think he connects from England.

The main problem is that most people on Boards.ie used to be 18-35 years old. However, this might change if many people register just to vote. I've also noticed a big jump in the vote in the last 10 hours in all constituencies.

I voted from the UK without any problems. I moved over here a few weeks ago, but I voted in the boards.ie poll for Cork South Central, and work permitting I will be flying back for the day to vote the same way I voted in the poll.

deman

craigybagel wrote: »

I voted from the UK without any problems. I moved over here a few weeks ago, but I voted in the boards.ie poll for Cork South Central, and work permitting I will be flying back for the day to vote the same way I voted in the poll.

And I voted from Finland without any problems. Guess we've always got to put up with those who know everything.