SBP Poll 12th Feb - FG 38, FF 15, Lab 20, SF 10, GP 3, Ind 14

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Sunday Business Post/Red C poll: FG: 38% (+3), Labour: 20% (-2), FF: 15% (-2), SF: 10% (-3), Greens: 3% (+1), Independents: 14% (+3).

FG heading for 70 seats zone, still not enough to form a single party government. Kenny won the TV3 debate.

Martin bounce is truely dead - his handshake must be to blame here.

If Lab gets 20%, they may end losing seats because they are running too many candidates.

SF going nowhere.

GP are within the margin of error - enough said.

Lots of Independents in the next Dail.

GSF

Its begining to look like an FG tidal wave is building.

Bottle_of_Smoke

MAybe a FG/Independents coalition possible

Rubik.

They are still well short of the 83 seats needed for a majority though. Their own internal poll "leaked" to The Mail has them on 70 seats as well.

Sulmac

Just to add to that, the number of 'undecideds' has fallen by 3 points to 17%.

dlofnep

I'm surpised at this as Enda shyed away from the latest debate. Perhaps it was to his benefit afterall. I think we'll see a change in these as more debates take place.

GSF

Rubik. wrote: »

They are still well short of the 83 seats needed for a majority though. Their own internal poll "leaked" to The Mail has them on 70 seats as well.

Not necessarily - the math is going to be funny this time because you have SF, FF and Lab @ 10/15/20 respectively. Previously in the early 80's it was a 2 horse race. 38% is worth a lot more in a 4 horse race than in a 2 way contest.

Rubik.

dlofnep wrote: »

I think we'll see a change in these as more debates take place.

I don't know, Martin was supposed to have won the last TV debate - yet FF are down 2%.

GSF

Rubik. wrote: »

I don't know, Martin was supposed to have won the last TV debate - yet FF are down 2%.

FG would be happy for Martin to "win" all the debates if their vote share keeps dropping afterwards

Sergeant

Debates have very little influence on me personally. Carefully crafted sound bites as rehearsed earlier with their PR team from Carr or O'Herlihy Communications. I think their influence is overstated by the media.

ilovesleep

How does this compare to the boards.ie poll

ilovesleep

ilovesleep wrote: »

How does this compare to the boards.ie poll

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

DeVore

I would be very interested to know how they polled this, how many people they polled and how. Our poll has issues but they are at least known issues which can be corrected for.

I think our poll will have FF too low simply because we are missing some of their core vote in our pool of voters and SF/Lab too high because they are more active online and more prevalent in the younger voters.

I dont think we're as far off as people might think we are... every week these RedC and MRBI polls vary quite a bit, while our poll has been rock steady suggesting to me that variance is at play in theirs simply because they poll only about 1000 people accross 40 consituencies. Thats 25 per constituency or 12/13 men and women. Very easy for that to vary by simple chance imho.

DeV.

the groutch

hopefully this poll in inacurate, the last thing we need is FG running hte country on their own, with no real accountability

DeVore

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

True but at a national level such activity has no impact.

DeV.

DeVore

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

kev9100

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Unfortunately, thats what it looks like.

To be honest, the national polls are far less important than local ones.

john ff

Hi,Some of our great leaders were valued for the substance which they brought to Government. The media appears to sell us the image. In this election people are looking for substance in the form of integrity and sincerity. Debating masters are just debating masters and carry little value in times of need. Polls are bound to reflect this as people realise that they were duped in previous elections.

nesf

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Yes and no. Support for a party is quite different because party candidates transfer so strongly between each other. Independent candidates don't follow this pattern really and if 3 or 4 Independents split the Independent vote it can easily mean no Independent gets elected.

mike65

Does Fine Gael now have "the Big Mo"? Fianna Fail are clearly a busted flush twice over, Labour are stalling as they finally come under scutiny (a few weeks ago it was Eamo for taoiseach!) the rest won't decide the result. The independents will most likely take votes off FF (for being shifty ****e) or Labour (for not being socialist enough).

DeVore

DeVore wrote: »

True but at a national level such activity has no impact.

DeV.

Agreed unless a lot of them are facebook campaigning people to vote in the poll.I've just seen two so far.
Don't get me wrong,this boards virtual election,I like, notwithstanding some issues like that,the under 18's , people abroad and non irish voting.

You can change your vote in the boards poll which is cool and I presume that is tailored to reflect changes in public opinion.
However it could only work accurately if everybody is re-polled and not depending on a random decision to come back and change yours.
I don't know if it's possible to add a week on week change in the vote percentage?
Very few elections are devoid of some variations in opinion during them-though this one like the snow in november is like no other I've ever seen so who knows what will happen.
Fascinating nonetheless.

Regarding red C or any other conventional opinion poll,I'm sure they have their faults like the one you mentioned.
I don't know enough though about how they frame their "representative sample" to be able to comment to be honest.
Probably some internationally recognized or proven convention though.

Rubik.

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

steelcityblues

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

Many of them will have surnames like Behan, Healy Rae, McGrath, Lowry, etc. so don't expect genuine independent views.

Dozen Wicked Words

So would this suggest ULA are in line to not win any seats at all, or are they considered Independant in this poll?

gandalf

RedC are normally fairly accurate regarding their previous polls. So I would put some faith in their poll.

I would say with regard to the boards poll that the FG figure is accurate, the FF is totally understated and the Labour/SF & Greens percentages are definately overstated.

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

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gandalf wrote: »

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

Martin is linked with FF's 14 years in power, I wouldn't be surprised if he's ousted sometime after the election.

rainbowdash

Rubik. wrote: »

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

So if its the biggest party in the polls that gets the swing again it would be FG on 45%!!!

nesf

gandalf wrote: »

RedC are normally fairly accurate regarding their previous polls. So I would put some faith in their poll.

I would say with regard to the boards poll that the FG figure is accurate, the FF is totally understated and the Labour/SF & Greens percentages are definately overstated.

It is interesting to see that FF are slipping. Looks like the charade of a "new" leader has backfired.

I'd say FG is underestimated as well personally given the very strong FG/FF leanings of the older generation who are underrepresented.

county man

Rubik. wrote: »

Just out of curiosity.

SBP Red C poll 12th May 2007 -

FF 35%, FG 29%, Lab 12%, SF 7%, Greens 6%, PD's 3% and IND's 8%.

Election Results 24th May 2007 -

FF 42%, FG 27%, Lab 10%, SF 7%, Greens 5%, PD's 3% and IND's 5%.

Was that poll published before or after the TV debate between Ahern and Kenny during that election?

Rubik.

county man wrote: »

Was that poll published before or after the TV debate between Ahern and Kenny during that election?

The debate was on the 17th May, so before.

Amtmann

If FG manage 38% on the 25th, this will give them around 76 seats. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if they reached 39 or even 40% by polling day. This could give them an overall majority, or enough seats to form a government with Independents.

What are the reasons for what looks like a growing FG surge? It seems:

1. People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
2. People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
3. People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
4. Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
5. People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
6. People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

rainbowdash

Tremelo wrote: »

If FG manage 38% on the 25th, this will give them around 76 seats. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if they reached 39 or even 40% by polling day. This could give them an overall majority, or enough seats to form a government with Independents.

What are the reasons for what looks like a growing FG surge? It seems:

1. People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
2. People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
3. People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
4. Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
5. People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
6. People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

We need a government and we don't want Fianna Fail. In 2007 when push came to shove people went with FF. This time its FG that people are backing because there is nothing else.

I think its as simple as that.

Sergeant

Tremelo wrote: »

1. People are not averse to single party government, as long as that party isn't FF
2. People are worried that FG and Labour will not govern well together
3. People want Noonan rather than Burton as Finance Minister
4. Labour has a good leader but a qualitatively weaker team than Fine Gael
5. People find FG's tax vs spending cut policies attractive
6. People are starting to accept that Enda Kenny is made of sterner stuff than previously thought

I'd agree with every point except the last one. I still think Kenny is costing FG votes, and that the party handlers cannot keep him out of the spotlight for much longer. I've no doubt he has good leadership skills, he did help to rebuild that party after the 2002 election. And I'm told he is a genuinely nice man, with excellent one-to-one people skills. But he comes across as unsure on TV and Radio. Wooden.

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

NSNO

Don't forget the 'leading party push' that happens every election. The party in the lead in the last week before an election always gets a boost from undecided voters come polling day. If FG are on 38% come polling day then I'd be surprised if they didn't get 41% at minimum .

johngalway

Sergeant wrote: »

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

I don't agree with that assessment. It's Kenny who has reorganized FG, and it's that reorganization which has FG where it is today - with a little help from FF perhaps. Solid foundation etc.

RetroBate

DeVore wrote: »

This election is going to be the election of the Independent.

DeV.

I can just see the headline on the 27th.

"It Was The Sindo Wot Won It"

ilovesleep

Sergeant wrote: »

I'd agree with every point except the last one. I still think Kenny is costing FG votes, and that the party handlers cannot keep him out of the spotlight for much longer. I've no doubt he has good leadership skills, he did help to rebuild that party after the 2002 election. And I'm told he is a genuinely nice man, with excellent one-to-one people skills. But he comes across as unsure on TV and Radio. Wooden.

FG will win the election despite of Enda Kenny, not because of him.

Not as wooden as Cowen!

Reilly616

My gut feeling is to doubt the validity or import of a 1000 person sample of a group of probably over 2 million eventual voters. Would anyone care to explain to me why my gut feeling is wrong, mathematically speaking? Or, conversely, am I wrong to assume my gut feeling is wrong?

Min

Those people who are paid to follow Eamon Gilmore with Gilmore for Taoiseach are making the Labour party look more deluded with every day that passes.

More like Gilmore v Martin for opposition leader.

steelcityblues

Still doubt that FG can get over the 70 seat mark.

Right leaning independents, esp. in Dublin, have the potential to cost them enough votes.

DeVore

Humans are terrible at the outliers of maths. We rarely have to predict the actions of 2 Million anythings so our brains are not well configured for estimating such things.

Mathematically speaking a sample set of 1000 should be capable of predicting the votes of the 1M+ or so who will vote to within +-3 at the 95% confidence threshold. That wont make much sense probably but in laymans terms, yeah 1000 is enough to give you a decent idea whats going on.

Making it 10,000 is obviously better but not by as much as you might think... your variance might be +-1 more accurate.


What I hate about those polls is that they rarely really explain how they are taken so its hard to peer-review their methods.

DeV.

Reilly616

DeVore wrote: »

Humans are terrible at the outliers of maths. We rarely have to predict the actions of 2 Million anythings so our brains are not well configured for estimating such things.

Mathematically speaking a sample set of 1000 should be capable of predicting the votes of the 1M+ or so who will vote to within +-3 at the 95% confidence threshold. That wont make much sense probably but in laymans terms, yeah 1000 is enough to give you a decent idea whats going on.

Making it 10,000 is obviously better but not by as much as you might think... your variance might be +-1 more accurate.


What I hate about those polls is that they rarely really explain how they are taken so its hard to peer-review their methods.

DeV.

Thanks. I understand about our inability to accurately visualise the large and the small without maths, hence my assumption and question.

It does make sense, thanks, I wouldn't even mind something more technical! I can ask my girlfriend tomorrow, she's always doing surveys for her course. She's often complained about their sample sizes being too small, thus screwing up their reports with idiotic results. But, yeah, I should probably wiki how adequate sample size is calculated... it's been bugging me. :P

Lame Lantern

Shocked by this poll. The fact that Fine Gael's if anything more regressive policies are benefiting from the rage directed at the sitting government, as well as the utterly nonsensical press FG has received over the last week, this is truly a testament to the fundamental ineptness of the electorate to scrutinise what they're voting for.

Giving Fine Gael the vote while their leader refuses to speak to the people, while they publish vague policies the sum of which are to continue the policies of Fianna Fáil and while their post-heave party structure is so riddled with gombeenism as to put the last administration to shame is so maddeningly stupid.

Enda Kenny will limp his way into office based purely on the blind, idiotic rage of the public to be quite possibly our most inept Taoiseach yet.

DeVore

To be absolutely honest. I think people are afraid that Labour hasnt cleaned its house of Loony Lefties and most Irish people are sick of the poor service we get from the Public Sector and Labour wont tackle that in their minds (and possibly thats true too).

Once you reach that conclusion, the only sane choices are FG or Independent. And thats what this polls delta from that last time it was published shows is happening.


DeV.

meglome

GSF wrote: »

Its begining to look like an FG tidal wave is building.

Well from my talking to whomever I come across lately they're seen as our best hope. Many of us would like better choices but other than some of the independents that choice isn't there.

meglome

DeVore wrote: »

To be absolutely honest. I think people are afraid that Labour hasnt cleaned its house of Loony Lefties and most Irish people are sick of the poor service we get from the Public Sector and Labour wont tackle that in their minds (and possibly thats true too).

Once you reach that conclusion, the only sane choices are FG or Independent. And thats what this polls delta from that last time it was published shows is happening.

DeV.

Didn't see your post when I posted my but I've come to the same conclusion. That and Labour have been doing a little too much of telling people what they want to hear and we've had way too much of that.

Reilly616

I'll be interested to see how the debates affect the polls, especially concerning Kenny. I'd assume the Irish debate will have little effect. If the frontline debate isn't in a totally new format, but rather the regular shouting match, badly regulated by Pat, then that mightn't effect a great change either. The final debate could be too late...

Mario Daniel

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be much more scientific.
I've seen some candidates asking their facebook friends to vote for them in the boards.ie poll for instance regardless of where they live.
Under 18's can vote in the boards poll as can people abroad.
Things like that can skew things in particular constituencies.

Not entirely correct: Boards.ie will block voting from abroad. This can be verified because each time you connect your IP will identify you as being abroad. It can have perverse effects, I know someone who works for a multinational in Dublin and his email goes through the company's tunnel in London. Most sites think he connects from England.

The main problem is that most people on Boards.ie used to be 18-35 years old. However, this might change if many people register just to vote. I've also noticed a big jump in the vote in the last 10 hours in all constituencies.

rainbowdash

rainbowdash wrote: »

We need a government and we don't want Fianna Fail. In 2007 when push came to shove people went with FF. This time its FG that people are backing because there is nothing else.

I think its as simple as that.

yeah there is a wide range of left wing options but very little right wing choice - even FG are fairly center right.

nesf

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Giving Fine Gael the vote while their leader refuses to speak to the people, while they publish vague policies the sum of which are to continue the policies of Fianna Fáil and while their post-heave party structure is so riddled with gombeenism as to put the last administration to shame is so maddeningly stupid.

How are their policies vague though? Compared to Labour (which is the other main Opposition choice for most people) FG have very detailed plans laid out about what they'd do to Health etc. Labour have offered us a bunch of bullet points that are not connected chronologically. FF have offered us something very solid on political reform and the economy but are fairly non-existent in other areas.

Yes FG haven't exactly detailed everything they would do but they don't know if they'll be in single party + independent Government or coalition with Labour yet and really are not in a position to say "this is exactly what we'll do and we'll do only this in Government."

The one thing that's impressed me about FG (and to a much lesser extent FF on some issues) is that there's a broad overarching plan to their proposals. In Health point a) leads to point b) which leads to point c) for FG while Labour have merely offered us a bunch of policy points and no idea about which they'll do first, what they'll prioritise or how they all fit together.

craigybagel

Mario Daniel wrote: »

Not entirely correct: Boards.ie will block voting from abroad. This can be verified because each time you connect your IP will identify you as being abroad. It can have perverse effects, I know someone who works for a multinational in Dublin and his email goes through the company's tunnel in London. Most sites think he connects from England.

The main problem is that most people on Boards.ie used to be 18-35 years old. However, this might change if many people register just to vote. I've also noticed a big jump in the vote in the last 10 hours in all constituencies.

I voted from the UK without any problems. I moved over here a few weeks ago, but I voted in the boards.ie poll for Cork South Central, and work permitting I will be flying back for the day to vote the same way I voted in the poll.