anyone here going to vote sinn féin?

Chucky the tree · 01-02-2011 11:49PM

squod wrote: »

A good chance is what 40/60, 30/70?. A better rate further down the line is still very definitely unaffordable. I'd argue that there is no long term plan by any party. Taking the IMF/EU deal is pushing the problems we have now into the future and so into uncertainty.

Who trusts the next shower to get us out of this mess when they've been handed the ''solution'' by the party that caused it all. Is anyone else seeing how ridiculous this is?

It's impossible to put a percentage on it really. How do you know a better rate is unaffordable? I mean you don't even know what that rate could be. I trust any party over SF to get us out of this mess, an that even includes FF. The fact that no SF supporter even has a clue what to do after we tell IMF/EU to piss off says it all, the fact no SF TD has clue what to do then either is just scary.

elefant · 01-02-2011 11:54PM

I'm not the most politically informed individual, but what has put me right off even considering voting for Sinn Féin was Caoimhín Ó Caoláin's speech today when he seemed to indicate that if we voted No to Lisbon we'd be so much better off.

Now at the time of voting, I had basically very little idea of what the treaty would mean for Ireland. Since then, I've studied EU law, and I've learnt the treaty had pretty much zero effect on Ireland's relations with Europe.

For Sinn Féin to bring it up now seems ridiculous to me. Like saying, if ye'd listened to us in the first place, we'd be grand now. So vote for us, and we'll steer us right.

In saying that, I have little to no idea who I will vote for!

CelticRambler · 02-02-2011 12:01AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

It makes perfect economic sense if you look no further than 10 months into the future. With no bailout money, no option to go to bond markets and no National Pension Reserve Fund we will have no money to cover our c.€13bn deficit next year. SFs plan sounds good but they forgot one little detail, 2012!

Didn't cause Iceland any great problems - they're borrowing money again, and IIRC at a lower rate than Ireland's "well-behaved-borrower" bailout.

International financiers are a greedy bunch and not as risk-averse as they're made out to be, so if they only argument against burning the bondholders is the damage to Ireland's credit rating, that argument was lost last year.

Being a non-resident, I can't vote, but if I could, I'd vote for SF on that basis alone, because nothing else is going to get sorted out while the country is haemorrhaging money. Once they've stopped the bleeding, they can be voted out and let ... and let ... emmmmm ... well, let someone back in.

squod · 02-02-2011 12:03AM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

It's impossible to put a percentage on it really. How do you know a better rate is unaffordable? I mean you don't even know what that rate could be. I trust any party over SF to get us out of this mess, an that even includes FF. The fact that no SF supporter even has a clue what to do after we tell IMF/EU to piss off says it all, the fact no SF TD has clue what to do then either is just scary.

Because were broke, in a recession like. Where is the money to come from for the repayments if we don't have a bob already? Adjusting the percentages might seem a great idea. But it doesn't make us less broke nor does it make an unaffordable loan less unaffordable given the fact that we don't have any clear plan as to how were going to pay it back

As far as I can see the main political parties are saying

Take the EU/IMF laon
* A miracle happens*
Thing go back to 'normal'

.

paul71 · 02-02-2011 12:05AM

Can nobody see the simple result of Sinn Fein Policy if do become a coalition partner. The country is living on borrowings funded by IMF/EU the only domestic sources of funds are tax and the pension reserve funds. If tax rates are raised the amount collected will fall as we long ago reached the point were companies are closing due to high emplayment taxes, VAT and rates.

Put simply Sinn Feins solution of rejecting IMF and maintaining public spending will result in us running out of money by June/July. So Sinn Fein in power = public service pay cheques bounching in June, social welfare and OAP falling to €0 per week in June, all hospitals permenantly closed, all schools closed, effectly the state would cease to exist.

tfitzgerald · 02-02-2011 12:10AM

If there was a sinn féin candidate in my area I would vote for them

Buceph · 02-02-2011 12:10AM

bearballs wrote: »

I will vote for anyone who promises to take us out of Europe and stops paying of the theiving banks :):).Arrest them all!.

I agree. And we should stop paying off the thieving dole scroungers. It's the lowest and highest of society who got us where we are. If we get rid of the lower tax band coz they're obviously cheating us out of tax money and everyone pays 40+% we'll be sorted in no time.

That's it. I'm starting my own party. Screw the dole scroungers and Joe Duffy's Teh Wurkers. Screw the rich and the bankers and the politicians. I'm going to represent people who are in a tough situation but are doing alright as long as we make sure to fly Ryanair and go on holidays during off peak times.

Chucky the tree · 02-02-2011 12:27AM

squod wrote: »

Because were broke, in a recession like. Where is the money to come from for the repayments if we don't have a bob already? Adjusting the percentages might seem a great idea. But it doesn't make us less broke nor does it make an unaffordable loan less unaffordable given the fact that we don't have any clear plan as to how were going to pay it back

As far as I can see the main political parties are saying
Take the EU/IMF laon

* A miracle happens*

Thing go back to 'normal'

.

The main political parties are saying make the necessary budget cuts and hopefully in the long term create a surplus to pay off the loan. SF fantasy land of rejecting the bailout while doing little or nothing to cut our €15bn deficit certainly isn't going to do much good.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 12:39AM

ardle1 wrote: »

and if any party has has a chance of being listened to in America and further afield it's them,, especially when we need jobs coming into the country.

Oh dear lord,

Just exactly did SF become supportive of globalisation and multinationals, remembering that Obama is talking about bringing jobs back to the US ?

SF will not get sympathy in the EU because they have been anti-EU even before we joined back in '73. Also talking about burning the bond holders won't help the Euro much.

So of our main trading partners that just leaves the UK, and I'd like you to explain how SF will win friends and gain influence in Westminster when they won't even sit in parliament.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 01:03AM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Didn't cause Iceland any great problems - they're borrowing money again, and IIRC at a lower rate than Ireland's "well-behaved-borrower" bailout.

The UK admit it's a low interest loan , 5.9% (so not that low) and the loan will be paid in Sterling (lets' hope the currency don't fall) and it's because they need to keep NI banks open - No one has the same self interest in keeping us afloat. And it involves some loss of sovereignty. Also they are lending in the hope of not loosing more so not sure how would tie in with the plan to skip paying large parts of our debt.

http://www.businessandleadership.com/economy/item/27390-uk-loan-for-a-friend-in-ne

“[The loan and its conditions] allows us to have a say in a restructuring plan that could otherwise have had a major impact on the UK and its banking system, and could potentially have cost the British taxpayer considerable sums of money without our voice even being heard."

“Making the loan has enabled us to set that condition and to be part of the discussion about the restructuring plan and its impact on the UK subsidiaries of banks which have significant presences in Northern Ireland,” he said.

The loan of £3.25bn will be given out in eight tranches, the first coming in September 2011.

Each tranche will last for 7.5 years and interest charged will be about 5.9pc but is dependent on exchange rates. The loan will be paid in sterling. The UK expects to earn €400m in interest payments over the course of the loan.

Commenting on the fact that interest on loans to Iceland was charged at a much lower rate, Osborne said, “[That was] substantially lower because, frankly, needs must: I am seeking to recover money from Iceland.

“I am dealing with a situation that I have inherited – obviously the Iceland loan relates to events that happened under the previous government – and I need the support of the Icelandic parliament.”

“My judgment was that other terms might have meant our not getting our money back at all and that would not have been very sensible,” he concluded.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 01:21AM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

The main political parties are saying make the necessary budget cuts and hopefully in the long term create a surplus to pay off the loan. SF fantasy land of rejecting the bailout while doing little or nothing to cut our €15bn deficit certainly isn't going to do much good.

As far as I can tell their plans would probably increase the deficit.

Which areas if any are there realistic plans to reduce spending on ??

http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/19991

Speaking in Dublin as the Finance Bill passed through the Oireachtas, Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams said Government cuts, which Fine Gael and Labour intended to implement would be deeply damaging. In Government, Sinn Féin would reverse the cuts and introduce a new Budget.

reverse the cuts = increased spending, but how much ?

plans to reduce wastage in the Civil Service. The main costs are wages and payments. You can't do much about payments apart from cut social welfare, and trying to reduce wages will be fun and games. If anyone can show successful efficiency gains in the Civil Service that weren't swallowed up elsewhere please let me know. ros.ie saved about €30m so how much of decentralisation did it pay for ??
In the past Civil Servants have gotten around pay freezes by promoting everyone up a grade.

gallinini · 02-02-2011 01:38AM

Yes I will be voting SF for the first time ever. Ive listened to people saying not to, but seriously how much more trouble could they land us in. Certainly nothing like weve just been through.Also they seem to be the only ones mentioning the poorer people in society. I for one feel they should be given a shot.

the_syco · 02-02-2011 10:29AM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Didn't cause Iceland any great problems - they're borrowing money again, and IIRC at a lower rate than Ireland's "well-behaved-borrower" bailout.

Check how much their money is worth now.

gallinini wrote: »

Yes I will be voting SF for the first time ever. Ive listened to people saying not to, but seriously how much more trouble could they land us in. Certainly nothing like weve just been through.Also they seem to be the only ones mentioning the poorer people in society. I for one feel they should be given a shot.

SF get in, the poor people will be f**ked. They will not get social welfare. They will be left to die, as there will be no money to pay for doctors if they get sick.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 10:31AM

gallinini wrote: »

Yes I will be voting SF for the first time ever. Ive listened to people saying not to, but seriously how much more trouble could they land us in.

It's extremely unlikely they will end up in government so you are in effect voting for a hung Dail.

SF are anti EU
SF are anti UK
SF are anti capitalism
And their solution to the economic crisis is at odds with everyone else.

Certainly nothing like weve just been through.

make no mistake, things can get worse if the wrong policies are followed

Also they seem to be the only ones mentioning the poorer people in society.

what does this mean ?
seriously , name the policies and amounts and we can compare them to others

are other parties talking about reducing social welfare by more than prices have dropped ?
all parties are promising more for education etc,

you will find parties mention policies that the public are interested in
some sections of society like students don't vote as much as say old age pensioners and so aren't pampered to as much,

I for one feel they should be given a shot.

Banbh · 02-02-2011 10:35AM

Listening to the economic experts and apologists of the three pro-IMF parties would be amusing, if it wasn't so tragic. They're the ones who led us down this path to ruin and now they want us to believe that this is the only alternative and that they have a clue about what they are talking about.

Not for me. I'm voting for the the opposing view - Sinn Fein or ULA.

the_syco · 02-02-2011 10:44AM

Banbh wrote: »

that they have a clue about what they are talking about.

Not for me. I'm voting for the the opposing view - Sinn Fein or ULA.

As opposed to SF, who don't even say they have a clue on how to get the cash after they tell the IMF to hit the road.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 11:31AM

the_syco wrote: »

As opposed to SF, who don't even say they have a clue on how to get the cash after they tell the IMF to hit the road.

In fairness cash isn't a problem in year one, ( and by this I mean the rest of 2011 not a full 12 months, the national pension reserve vs. increased spending )

there is a possibly of muddling by in year two - it's an outside chance , I'm not even sure it's possible in theory or in the real world, but let's pretend by many miracles it's possible

year three - the only good news is that if we still have the euro that we have hard currency to start paying off the additional €30Bn deficit. (it's €15Bn a year before cuts are reversed). Unless we get a far better interest rate it's likely that the interest payments alone will be the same as current base social welfare pay outs (excuding top up's and rent etc. ) - oh yeah that's in addition to the existing debt.

But all academic since

FG won't go into government with SF as that would alienate their core supporters.

Labour won't go into government with SF too much recent history
It's possible that FF + FG would be more likely

FF with SF and independents forming a government ?
can anyone see this happening ahead of Labour an Independent and either FG or FF ?

We absolutely must investigate for fraud and reckless trading at the financial instutions , and others like regulators who didn't uphold their contracts of employment and local law. Remember that one of the reasons IMHO why the tribrunals have so little teeth is that FF were trying to protect their friends.

sharkie66 · 02-02-2011 12:08PM

Capt,

We absolutely must investigate for fraud and reckless trading at the financial instutions , and others like regulators who didn't uphold their contracts of employment and local law. Remember that one of the reasons IMHO why the tribrunals have so little teeth is that FF were trying to protect their friends.

Hit the nail on the head there capt!

On the VB show last night, Kathleen Funchion the Kilkenny SF candidate raised a very valid point with regard to what happens if Ireland cannot pay back the debt next year or 2013 and default? What happens if we cannot renegoiate the level of interest and the IMF/EU give us the two fingers? Where do we go from there? Who can we borrow off then? Top economists think default at some stage in the future is a real possibility. I think this is a valid question but unfortunately FG/Lab/FF and the Greens do not see this as worthy for discussion.

Regardless of your own beliefs and party allegiance maybe someone could provide an answer here. SF bashing is popular but sometimes we should listen to all the views around the table so we can sort out the mess we are in!

InchicoreDude · 02-02-2011 01:16PM

Ok, been watching Vincent Browne most nights for the last couple of weeks. The main parties always hit SF with "If we back out of the loan, We have no money to pay social welfare, public servants etc.".
Last night, the SF candidate argued back that by asking the question WWhat is the difference to when it becomes apparent that Ireland cannot afford to pay back this loan?" (Which is somthing many leading speakers appear to agree on).

So is there really a whole lot of difference between the parties views? While not saying so, doesnt everyone think Ireland will eventually default on this?

LordSutch · 02-02-2011 01:36PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

SF are anti EU
SF are anti UK
SF are anti capitalism

And their solution to the economic crisis is at odds with everyone else.

Nail hit fairly & squarely on head^

I saw their teenage sounding candidate on VB last night, dear lord :cool:

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2011 02:29PM

sharkie66 wrote: »

On the VB show last night, Kathleen Funchion the Kilkenny SF candidate raised a very valid point with regard to what happens if Ireland cannot pay back the debt next year or 2013 and default? What happens if we cannot renegoiate the level of interest and the IMF/EU give us the two fingers? Where do we go from there? Who can we borrow off then?

SF have been saying all along that we should default because we would still be able to get credit elsewhere. And now they admit it won't be possible.

Thank you for that concise explanation of why the SF plan to default and then raise money elsewhere can't work.

Meanwhile back in the real world, we are now like many developing nations in the nature of our debt and it's not the first time either. We've paid off our debt before , it's a sickener but it's not the end of the world.

Top economists think default at some stage in the future is a real possibility. I think this is a valid question but unfortunately FG/Lab/FF and the Greens do not see this as worthy for discussion.

Please provide links to confirm this, otherwise I will have to treat that statement as your unsubstantiated opinion.

Regardless of your own beliefs and party allegiance maybe someone could provide an answer here. SF bashing is popular but sometimes we should listen to all the views around the table so we can sort out the mess we are in!

you don't have to buy the cow if you just want a drink of milk.

FF have been in government for most of the last generation by being populist, I think we can all see the time is past for populist policies but SF still roll out the popular ones, safe in the knowledge that they will never have to implement them. The devil is in the detail as they say.

the_syco · 02-02-2011 03:40PM

sharkie66 wrote: »

On the VB show last night, Kathleen Funchion the Kilkenny SF candidate raised a very valid point with regard to what happens if Ireland cannot pay back the debt next year or 2013 and default? What happens if we cannot renegoiate the level of interest and the IMF/EU give us the two fingers? Where do we go from there? Who can we borrow off then?

It's in the IMF's interest for us to stay afloat, and to keep paying, so I can't see them giving us "the two fingers". You question who can we borrow off then, I'll answer that with a question: if we give the IMF "the two fingers" now, and show the world that we won't pay anyone back, why would anyone loan money to us?

sharkie66 wrote: »

Regardless of your own beliefs and party allegiance maybe someone could provide an answer here. SF bashing is popular but sometimes we should listen to all the views around the table so we can sort out the mess we are in!

SF bashing is easy as they provide no real answers. They say they have the solution, but seem to want us to vote them in before they'll tell us.

sharkie66 · 02-02-2011 03:44PM

Capt,

SF have been saying all along that we should default because we would still be able to get credit elsewhere. And now they admit it won't be possible.

WTF ?

When did they admit this? Can you provide evidence for this unfounded assertion. Please provide links to confirm this, otherwise I will have to treat that statement as your unsubstantiated opinion!

You still haven't answered my previous question regarding what the other parties think will happen if Ireland has to default in the near future? Where will Ireland go for loans if this happens?

Is it so difficult to answer?

In the meantime here are a few links that contain the evidence you need regarding top economists. Have a close look at what Simon Johnson the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and the co-author of “13 Bankers" has to say on the whole default issue.

http://www.effedieffe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=39039:greece-default-with-ireland-breaks-euro-by-2016-in-global-poll&catid=35:worldwide&Itemid=152

http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/nov/28/top-economist-wary-of-holding-euro-notes-as-fears-/
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/25/will-ireland-default-ask-belgium/

Hope these links help you. enjoy the reading.:D

sharkie66 · 02-02-2011 03:57PM

Capt,

Have a look at what this outstanding economist has to say about SF economic policies!

http://www.politics.ie/sinn-fein/149746-david-mcwilliams-pearse-doherty-makes-absolute-sense.html

Beir bua:)

02-02-2011 04:07PM

sharkie66 wrote: »

You still haven't answered my previous question regarding what the other parties think will happen if Ireland has to default in the near future? Where will Ireland go for loans if this happens?

Is it so difficult to answer?

None of the other main parties are recommending a default.
They want a negotiated reduction in the payment of the guaranteed debt.
It's selling on the open market at a reduction already.

They don't have to pay the non guaranteed bondholders.

sharkie66 · 02-02-2011 04:17PM

the_syco wrote: »

It's in the IMF's interest for us to stay afloat, and to keep paying, so I can't see them giving us "the two fingers". You question who can we borrow off then, I'll answer that with a question: if we give the IMF "the two fingers" now, and show the world that we won't pay anyone back, why would anyone loan money to us?

SF bashing is easy as they provide no real answers. They say they have the solution, but seem to want us to vote them in before they'll tell us.

Syco,

Giving the two fingers now firmly shows the gamblers out there that the market has certain rules and that the Irish people will not pay for the bad decisions of private investors. Fair enough this could cause problems for the European project but sorry we have to look after our own interests first. If you make a bad choice then be prepared to suffer the consequences of that choice! Simple really! There will be enough lenders out there to support the Irish after the default. I fully understand that this is unchartered waters but it is the only option open to us at the moment.

Now Syco can you answer my previous question please without ducking it and throwing the ball back to me with a question!!

Go on I know you can do it!:)

cancercowboy · 02-02-2011 04:23PM

Will I vote Sinn Féin?

To Quote Consuela from Family Guy:

"Noo, no"

sharkie66 · 02-02-2011 04:28PM

Deleted User wrote: »

None of the other main parties are recommending a default.
They want a negotiated reduction in the payment of the guaranteed debt.
It's selling on the open market at a reduction already.

They don't have to pay the non guaranteed bondholders.

But they do and did the day before yesterday Anglo-Irish, the zombie bank that is being propped up with Irish taxpayers’ money, paid out a whopping €750 million for a maturing bond despite the fact that the debt is not covered by the State guarantee! Wow!:cool:

What good use do you think that lost money could have been put to in this tiny island of ours? Political beliefs aside this is just criminal and not one of the other parties had the guts to stand up for the ordinary citizen. At least SF try!

the_syco · 02-02-2011 04:54PM

sharkie66 wrote: »

Giving the two fingers now firmly shows the gamblers out there that the market has certain rules

Giving the IMF the two fingers now shows that the Irish will not pay the money back.

sharkie66 wrote: »

There will be enough lenders out there to support the Irish after the default.

Um, look up the meaning of default. It means not to pay the loans that you signed up for. It means not paying the banks. So if the banks go belly up, where will businesses go for loans? Where will you go for a mortgage? No-one in the right mind would lend money to anyone in Ireland for a long time, as we would have shown that we will take their money, and not pay it back.

sharkie66 wrote: »

Now Syco can you answer my previous question please without ducking it and throwing the ball back to me with a question!!

Which question would that be?

squod · 02-02-2011 04:57PM

sharkie66 wrote: »

Capt,

SF have been saying all along that we should default because we would still be able to get credit elsewhere. And now they admit it won't be possible.

WTF ?

When did they admit this? Can you provide evidence for this unfounded assertion. Please provide links to confirm this, otherwise I will have to treat that statement as your unsubstantiated opinion!

You still haven't answered my previous question regarding what the other parties think will happen if Ireland has to default in the near future? Where will Ireland go for loans if this happens?

Is it so difficult to answer?

In the meantime here are a few links that contain the evidence you need regarding top economists. Have a close look at what Simon Johnson the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and the co-author of “13 Bankers" has to say on the whole default issue.

http://www.effedieffe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=39039:greece-default-with-ireland-breaks-euro-by-2016-in-global-poll&catid=35:worldwide&Itemid=152

http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/nov/28/top-economist-wary-of-holding-euro-notes-as-fears-/
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/25/will-ireland-default-ask-belgium/

Hope these links help you. enjoy the reading.:D

+1 on this. Hoping FF/FG can do magic tricks and economic back-flips is way outside of my comfort zone. Politicians need to outline a response to the economists who predict the default in the years to come. We can't afford it now, we can't afford it later.

When will people realise this?

anyone here going to vote sinn féin?

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