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Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

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    #122
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Just want to point out - a couple of the weather forecast charts are suggesting this very rapid development of the Low Pressure on Friday night (explosive cyclogenesis) though it's likely not going to be as intense as that. Also wind speeds are not forecast to be severe over land tomorow night (like less than 25 miles per hour) but it'll be very windy off the southwest coast.


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    #123
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM looks similar to the GFS at 48 hours. Unfortunately we miss the crucial moment between 24 and 48 hours to see how the low tracks/develops with regard to us but you would have to assume something similar to what the GFS shows for that period.


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    #124
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    It looks to pull the low west then east quite fast, but still looks good


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    #125
    th3 s1aught3r
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭th3 s1aught3r


    Evelyn tells it like it is.


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    #126
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,805 ✭✭✭Calibos


    I had a look at raintoday (7pm) to watch the showers hitting the northwest. Then I noticed streamers and precipitation forming literally 4 or 5 miles off the north wales coast to the right of Anglesey and feeding down across the welsh mountains. Is this a radar artifact. If not, how can heavy precipitation form within sight of the coast over there and yet the sea track from the isle of man to the irish east coast is not enough for streamer formation and hence the IOM snow shadow?


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    #127
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    A few snippets of the RTE forecast after the 6 1,

    further heavy snow
    Most areas at risk,
    Snow & frost
    Severe over the next couple of days
    Tomorrow heavy showers widespread, generally hail and snow, thundersnow possible
    Later more organised band of snow, clearing east Saturday
    More after the 9 news



    What a shame they can't wait for the later update from MT, having just read his update, I get the impression from his thoughts that ME are going to be going for an even harder warning at some stage, the potential is looking very challenging for things like roads, work, even basics over the next few days could become problematic.

    Steve

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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    #128
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,055 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Evelyn C to use her own words said she'll do a preview of the xmas weather after the 9 news. I expect to hear the word "uncertain" in there somewhere. I also expect to hear "indications are the Atlantic influence will........." you know the rest - thaw for crimbo:(


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    #129
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,662 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Evelyn C to use her own words said she'll do a preview of the xmas weather after the 9 news. I expect to hear the word "uncertain" in there somewhere. I also expect to hear "indications are the Atlantic influence will........." you know the rest - thaw for crimbo:(

    well it is asking a lot for snowy conditions to persist for seven-eight days without interference from the Atlantic. it's best to just enjoy what's coming over the next couple of days and hope the storm disappears or is progged to track further south than currently suggested. Fair play to M.T for forecasting it weeks ago.


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    #130
    steveLFC24
    Registered Users Posts: 429 ✭✭steveLFC24


    Thanks for all the explanations and links guys, I think I'm finally starting to get the jist of these models and charts. Also the terminology is a lot less alien to me now. Ye are all legends:D


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    #131
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,981 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Lads i don't usually do this actually i hate doing it, I'd usually look at the charts read everyones opinion and make up my own mind but i'm stuck today. People keep mentioning inland south/east which isn't wexford town i know so i'm just wondering what am i likely to see? Will it be just sleet here or will it snow? Girlfriend depends on me for weather forecasts and the snow and i feel very unmanly today not being able to tell her. :( ha.


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    #132
    isle of man
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    i have just relised that the charts for prep are well useless for here.

    It shows that we should have snow making rain in the air over night all night,

    But after doing a little digging, thy are giving this nice blue prep chart over us which at first glance you think wow look at all that.
    when in fact its showing that it will be streamers all night,

    Gutted.com is not the word:(:mad:


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    #133
    little bess
    Registered Users Posts: 483 ✭✭little bess


    isle of man wrote: »
    i have just relised that the charts for prep are well useless for here.

    It shows that we should have snow making rain in the air over night all night,

    But after doing a little digging, thy are giving this nice blue prep chart over us which at first glance you think wow look at all that.
    when in fact its showing that it will be streamers all night,

    Gutted.com is not the word:(:mad:

    Will the precip from the streamers not fall as snow for IOL then?


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    #134
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    baraca wrote: »
    Lads i don't usually do this actually i hate doing it, I'd usually look at the charts read everyones opinion and make up my own mind but i'm stuck today. People keep mentioning inland south/east which isn't wexford town i know so i'm just wondering what am i likely to see? Will it be just sleet here or will it snow? Girlfriend depends on me for weather forecasts and the snow and i feel very unmanly today not being able to tell her. :( ha.

    ok not an expert but I would think you will get snow. The weather models seems to favour lots of snow and given the temperatures I think you will see plenty of it.


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    #135
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    It would appear Ulster is beginning to become pounded by heavy snow showers, probably widespread 10cm by morning there, more on hills.

    These showers will progressively make slightly more headway south through the night.

    Maybe even a rogue one hitting Dublin.


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    #136
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Its nearly all graupel here so not really giving any accumulation at all. Its snowed almost constantly for the past few hours now so quite annoying that its not proper snow


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    #137
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    18z NAE throws the precip through central areas 8-12cm of snow, less intense than the 12z and just south of Dublin.

    It just once more illustrates the extreme uncertainty.


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    #138
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    18z NAE throws the precip through central areas 8-12cm of snow, less intense than the 12z and just south of Dublin.

    It just once more illustrates the extreme uncertainty.

    For tomorrow night I'm assuming? I'm just waiting for 18Z to roll through on netweather


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    #139
    littlefriend
    Registered Users Posts: 1,900 ✭✭✭littlefriend


    Weathercheck & cherryghost - will you come back and say when that forecast is for pls.
    thanks


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    #140
    squigo
    Registered Users Posts: 20 ✭squigo


    Hi Folks

    First post in the weather thread. Thanks for all the info being posted Could someone answer me if this link is the preciptation based on the ECM runs? Thanks

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec


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    #141
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    squigo wrote: »
    Hi Folks

    First post in the weather thread. Thanks for all the info being posted Could someone answer me if this link is the preciptation based on the ECM runs? Thanks

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec
    Yes. This is at the bottom of the page when you scroll down.


    "An Atlantic ocean forecast is based on model calculations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF."


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    #142
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Low in Irish Sea visible on latest GFS


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    #143
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Latest indications that the north will not get as much snow as predicted on the Friday night period, elsewhere is looking good (99%) of the country

    10121818_1618.gif


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    #144
    squigo
    Registered Users Posts: 20 ✭squigo


    fizzycyst wrote: »
    Yes. This is at the bottom of the page when you scroll down.


    "An Atlantic ocean forecast is based on model calculations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF."



    Lol thank you.


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    #145
    isle of man
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    little bess wrote: »
    Will the precip from the streamers not fall as snow for IOL then?

    they do, but there going that hard that it passers before it gets chance to do anything worth talking about.

    its all hail so far


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    #146
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Harps wrote: »
    Its nearly all graupel here so not really giving any accumulation at all. Its snowed almost constantly for the past few hours now so quite annoying that its not proper snow
    Im suprised ,I havent had any grauphel here, just a bit earlier before the real snow came.
    A few showers came earlier and had real fluffy snow, like if it was coming out of a blowing machine ,didnt last too long though.


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    #147
    Elmo5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Hmmm looking at the GFS rolling out and appears that everywhere will get something good at different stages during this cold spell. Was thinking that it was a bit of a downgrade for east precip over saturday until I saw sunday updating... WOW!


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    #148
    squigo
    Registered Users Posts: 20 ✭squigo


    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    excellent!!!


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    #149
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    No downgrade at all with the GFS pub run, but the GFS had a habbit of winding up lows, if this did come off, it would give a major dumping to the east and south east

    gfs-0-72.png?18


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    #150
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,981 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    beasto.png

    ukwind.png

    ukprec.png

    Now thats what ya call a snowstorm.


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    #151
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    baraca wrote: »
    Now thats what ya call a snowstorm.

    My head hurts. There might be rain in there from what I see :(


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