Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

blogga · 24-11-2010 01:16AM

Wheres my soft landing?
I was promised a soft landing!
I demand a soft landing!
No?

munzab · 24-11-2010 01:16AM

of course the people lending are going to want interest. to them, Ireland was the thorn in the lion's paw and its basically killing the beast with infection.

they dont want to lose the paw, if it means blitzing the tiny 4 million little people for the greater good of 300, they will!

we cannot sustain paying back a debt of 200billion plus. whatever way it comes.

those idiots in the government did that with anglo. they could have taken the right way out,instead they tried to help their 'friends'.

look where we are now.

am i bovvered · 24-11-2010 01:16AM

Cannot add much to the debate, the more I know the more I think ignorance is bliss.
I feel sick

RealityCheck · 24-11-2010 01:18AM

People, things are bad and we all know that but really the world is'nt going to end. Look we may default at some stage, but it is'nt going to change things a whole lot.

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:19AM

interestingly it was only at the end vinny asked - and what happens to countries that do default?

only one half ans mumbling something about 'a good default'

as for the nuclear button 'option'

the press-ee in this case gets blown up first - hardly a strong hand.

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:20AM

blogga wrote: »

Wheres my soft landing?
I was promised a soft landing!
I demand a soft landing!
No?

Vote Yes for Jobs, Blogga.

DDigital · 24-11-2010 01:21AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

We only have to pay interest on the balance or the shortfall. I was furious listening to those con-artists selling their brand of fear tonight.

You say its scaremongering and an inducement of fear by con artists. However one could just as easily say that your take on it is equally incorrect but on the side of complacency. Do you genuinely believe that this country can afford to repay its debt and how?

Thanks.

blogga · 24-11-2010 01:22AM

A lot done, more to do!

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 01:22AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

We only have to pay interest on the balance or the shortfall. I was furious listening to those con-artists selling their brand of fear tonight.

I am no expert..but isn't it the case that the state will owe 200 to 250 billion, on a fairly high interest rate, to be paid back over a number of years, when, as a state we only take in about 32 billion a year?

It seems pretty stark to me, unless you can explain otherwise. I don't see the bank assets argument at all..they can't be worth a lot.

oppenheimer1 · 24-11-2010 01:22AM

7% they made that figure up. At that rate Ireland would be better to take its chances in the bond market. Reasonable commentators expect it to come in at about 5%. It would be an utter failure of the negotiating team if 7% is the rate and would assure us of being trapped in a debt spiral. The rate for it to be affordable should be less than the sum of inflation +growth.

5% of 85bn is 4.5bn per year or roughly 11% of national income at the end of the 4 year plan.

eigrod · 24-11-2010 01:24AM

Up to last week, Lucey and many of these economists were telling us that worst case scenario was the IMF would be forced to come in and sort the mess out for us.

The IMF are in now, so why are they trying to paint a picture of a worse case, worse case scenario than they predicted up to last week?

wylo · 24-11-2010 01:24AM

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Vote Yes for Jobs, Blogga.

meh , more lisbon treaty crap, this whole crisis has nothing to do with the LT, and it is acnkowledged by anyone that knows anything that all these catchphrases on BOTH sides of the debate were nonsense.

DDigital · 24-11-2010 01:25AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

7% they made that figure up. At that rate Ireland would be better to take its chances in the bond market. Reasonable commentators expect it to come in at about 5%

5% of 85bn is 4.5bn per year or roughly 11% of national income at the end of the 4 year plan.

But there's other debt apart from the 85 billion bailout figure.

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:26AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

7% they made that figure up. At that rate Ireland would be better to take its chances in the bond market. Reasonable commentators expect it to come in at about 5%

5% of 85bn is 4.5bn per year or roughly 11% of national income at the end of the 4 year plan.

plus lumping all those figures together as if they are one already released straight loan is disingenuous.

WTF is Lucy at? gunning for McW's fame?

Birdnuts · 24-11-2010 01:27AM

eigrod wrote: »

Up to last week, Lucey and many of these economists were telling us that worst case scenario was the IMF would be forced to come in and sort the mess out for us.

The IMF are in now, so why are they trying to paint a picture of a worse case, worse case scenario than they predicted up to last week?

Well they've been far more accurate then the 2 Brians and Co. so far:rolleyes:

Permabear · 24-11-2010 01:27AM

This post has been deleted.

Cavehill Red · 24-11-2010 01:28AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

7% they made that figure up. At that rate Ireland would be better to take its chances in the bond market. Reasonable commentators expect it to come in at about 5%

5% of 85bn is 4.5bn per year or roughly 11% of national income at the end of the 4 year plan.

I'm not taking the 7% from Vincent Browne. I didn't even watch the show. US-based bonds traders told me that figure.

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 01:29AM

eigrod wrote: »

Up to last week, Lucey and many of these economists were telling us that worst case scenario was the IMF would be forced to come in and sort the mess out for us.

The IMF are in now, so why are they trying to paint a picture of a worse case, worse case scenario than they predicted up to last week?

Because otherwise what can they do to keep people's interest? That's the problem with being a pundit, particularly a pundit of doom.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Birdnuts · 24-11-2010 01:29AM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.

So we've hit the bottom as regards house prices - I look forward to revisiting your prediction in a years time;)

oppenheimer1 · 24-11-2010 01:29AM

eigrod wrote: »

Up to last week, Lucey and many of these economists were telling us that worst case scenario was the IMF would be forced to come in and sort the mess out for us.

The IMF are in now, so why are they trying to paint a picture of a worse case, worse case scenario than they predicted up to last week?

Because if they said that they wouldn't be asked to come on TV and earn appearnace money in addition to the inflated wages they get as senior lecturers in TCD.

DDigital · 24-11-2010 01:29AM

ArtSmart wrote: »

plus lumping all those figures together as if they are one already released straight loan is disingenuous.

WTF is Lucy at? gunning for McW's fame?

But the other guy from the institute of financial traders calmly stated that we are bust. According to him the markets are chasing down Spain and Portugal in anticipation of an Irish default.

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:30AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

yeah, embarrassing nonsense. as if things werent bad enough.
(he should stick to the FF /bank bashing )

blogga · 24-11-2010 01:30AM

It will not be 7%.
Dog.
In.
The.
Street.
As good as a source as ...

hotmail.com · 24-11-2010 01:31AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Talk about shooting the messenger.

Scofflaw · 24-11-2010 01:31AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

The Irish commentariat were entirely useless on the way up, and are entirely useless on the way down. There's no particular reason they should have improved, I suppose.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Birdnuts · 24-11-2010 01:32AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I wonder why

ArtSmart · 24-11-2010 01:32AM

DDigital wrote: »

But the other guy from the institute of financial traders calmly stated that we are bust. According to him the markets are chasing down Spain and Portugal in anticipation of an Irish default.

great thing about being a mkt trader is that you win no matter who loses.

not saying the guy isnt genuine, but there was a lot of panicked 'group think' in that studio.

vinny needs to up his game on economic matters.

wylo · 24-11-2010 01:33AM

Will people please argue with the figures so instead of writing it off as Vincent Brown nonsense because some of us dont know enough to believe either side.
Maybe devote a thread to just arguing the figures of what we owe because the info seems to be scattered all over the shop.

24-11-2010 01:33AM

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

stop for a second and think........what if nobody shouted FIRE!! and there was a fire in the theatre??? If everybody sat back while the place burned down around them.......

flynnlives · 24-11-2010 01:34AM

Some seriously deluded people on this thread!!

These are the average figures.
Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB said no more circa €30billion.

Circa €340billion all told.

The total average interest rate for that is ~6.4-6.7%
Which is between 14-18 billion a year.

These guys are independent economists as well. They have nothing to gain outta this.

GAME OVER.

Sure go ahead and say this is scaremongering but your only fooling yourselfs.
Lucey, Gurdgiev, Sommerville and McWilliams have been totally on the ball since this thing started.

The worst thing is we have a FF gombeeen idiots worried about there seats. They have no clue how the markets work and certainly no clue of the scale of this disaster.
And these are the people negotiating this.

We are playing with the big boys here and FF havent a ****ing clue.

Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

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