Vinny B - 23/11 Should we tell Europe we cant afford it?

http://www.tv3.ie/live.php
On after the break says the national debt will be over 200 billion
over 10 billion a year interest payments


Thats something fierce, crippling debt

Bob_Latchford

just posted that on other thread. Its an Iceland situation, its impossible to service with 2m taxpayers

123balltv

2m taxpayers paying back a possible 200 billion we're in a sorry state

Bob_Latchford

Eurozone want 6.5%, IMF 5%. Wheres our friends in Europe?

digme

They're talking about this on Vincent Brown, sweet mother of god.
Default now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

doc_17

Its not a question of should we tell them we can't pay as we actually can't pay them. Things are about to get interesting.

Slideshowbob

Just stated on Vincent Browne we need over 300bn

add it onto people's mortgages and pay back over time:

so how many mortgages in Ireland - 1m?

300,000,000,000
_____________ = 300k / mortgage to be added & repaid
1,000,000

would that work? another solution?

Bob_Latchford

This hole just keeps getting bigger. There must have been a cover up?

mallet head

Dont think they know what the hell they are on about on tv3 at the minute.

Ren2k7

Sure why not make it a clean trillion while they're at it. After all, isn't that how much the fed and ECB are printing out of thin air these days. All it is really is ink on a ledger book

Dirk Gently

its like watching an auction. can I hear 400 billion?

Bob_Latchford

this is moving to fast. "Default territory"

Last week talks of bailout were fiction???

ntlbell

I'm dizzy, I can't seperate fact from fiction anymore the numbers and figures are just getting too big for my tiny little mind.

hotmail.com

This is certainly worrying listening to these panelists.

What happens if we default? Is this why deposits have been trickling out of AIB?

*Not an expert.

phill106

Default now, whats the worse that can happen!
At the moment out great great grandchildren will still be paying this off.

Cavehill Red

It gets worse - the rate is apparently 7%

Seven per cent!!!

They gave to Greece at 5% let's recall.

This is beyond a joke. They really must be told where to go. This is a blatant attempt to put the Irish nation in servitude.

Scofflaw

Merged with other, slightly less hysterical threads.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford

We have a gun to our own head and europes head. Its a hostage situation

Ren2k7

We don't need 300 billion. The banks do. F**k em

Larrson

Oh i think they do.

anoble66

I dont think there is any question now that we are going to have to default

Sir Oxman

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

We have a gun to our own head and europes head. Its a hostage situation

Yeah and we have the roll-over-bunnies negotiating our side.
If this is approved, this country is gone.

Mister men

Now we know why the Army and Gardai have been in constant riot control training for the last several weeks. Still are deposits are safe.:rolleyes:

oppenheimer1

Their figures are fundamentally flawed and only serve to frighten people. We are currently carrying the banks debt at this very moment, but believe it or not the banks also have assets. The difference between the liabilities and the assets is whats important. Clowns like Lucy only serve to frighten people. We will not be on the hook for a quarter of a trillion euro.

To make it worse, Guirgev wants a scheme that lets those in NE (Like himself who very wisely bought at the top of the boom, Guirgev is by his own admission 40% in NE) to get relief. You couldn't make it up. Why do people listen to these talking heads?????

Bob_Latchford

how much assets do the banks have? It must be fraction of their liabilities

It is hysterical though listening to this. The worst banking crisis in the world ever????

hotmail.com

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Their figures are fundamentally flawed and only serve to frighten people. We are currently carrying the banks debt at this very moment, but believe it or not the banks also have assets. The difference between the liabilities and the assets is whats important. Clowns like Lucy only serve to frighten people. We will not be on the hook for a quarter of a trillion euro.

Right but how much are the banks assets worth? Certainly not enough to cover the scale of debt. We owe at least 200 billion, at least.

Cavehill Red

Seven per cent interest on 85 billion on top of the interest on existing sovereign debt = how much exactly per capita per annum, I wonder?

Back of my envelope says somewhere in the region of 12 grand, but no doubt I'm way out.

Can anyone do better?

Cavehill Red

hotmail.com wrote: »

Right but how much are the banks assets worth? Certainly not enough to cover the scale of debt. We owe at least 200 billion, at least.

WE don't. The banks do. Time to sever the connection and let them float away, or sink.

hotmail.com

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

how much assets do the banks have? It must be fraction of their liabilities

It is hysterical though listening to this. The worst banking crisis in the world ever????

What is hysterical about it?

They did the adding and it came to roughly 300 billion. One panelist suggested that we need to default. It's hardly hysteria.

eigrod

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Their figures are fundamentally flawed and only serve to frighten people. We are currently carrying the banks debt at this very moment, but believe it or not the banks also have assets. The difference between the liabilities and the assets is whats important. Clowns like Lucy only serve to frighten people. We will not be on the hook for a quarter of a trillion euro.

To make it worse, Guirgev wants a scheme that lets those in NE (Like himself who very wisely bought at the top of the boom, Guirgev is by his own admission 40% in NE) to get relief. You couldn't make it up. Why do people listen to these talking heads?????

Exactly. If there was stability, these guys will lose a fortune so it's in their interest to keep the hysteria to the forefront for some time yet.

oppenheimer1

hotmail.com wrote: »

Right but how much are the banks assets worth? Certainly not enough to cover the scale of debt. We owe at least 200 billion, at least.

Yes but the banks assets are not entirely worthless unlike what Lucy would have you believe. Yes they have distressed assets and non performing loans, but the deal cut by the IMF that was revealed tonight was to sell off these loans with a loss sharing arrangement with the buyers, in order to reduce the size of the banks.

Why does Browne allow those "economists" to frighten people? I know fear is in high demand at the moment but its ridiculous.

Cheap Thrills!

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

This hole just keeps getting bigger. There must have been a cover up?

It's FF, I believe there is a huge amount involved.

Cover-up doesn't begin to describe it.....

We have to call a snap election, we cannot sign up for this without total transparency. And to get anything approaching that we have to call a snap election.

This is really serious. We have a CHOICE. The 'Government' need to how us the figures, now. We have to demand that, they won't volunteer.

It's NOT our job to bail out the euro, we need to leverage our power to upend the euro to allow us to demand forgiveness for default to gambler style bondholders.

hotmail.com

Cavehill Red wrote: »

WE don't. The banks do. Time to sever the connection and let them float away, or sink.

Yep sorry, the banks.

Bob_Latchford

hotmail.com wrote: »

What is hysterical about it?

They did the adding and it came to roughly 300 billion. One panelist suggested that we need to default. It's hardly hysteria.

Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?

Cavehill Red

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?

Sure it can. Check the list of Anglo and AIB creditors. It's like a who's who of European banking. And billionaires. And pension funds.

Throw in the threat to the single currency and the likelihood of Portugal, Spain and Greece defaulting too, and a UK economic disaster resulting from their trade surplus with Ireland vanishing overnight and their banks taking a vicious hit, and you have a perfect storm, my friend.

Birdnuts

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Why does Browne allow those "economists" to frighten people? I know fear is in high demand at the moment but its ridiculous.

Yeah - lets get on Dan Mclaughlin and some IBEC shrill to tell us how well Google are doing(apparently google profits = Irish GNP):rolleyes:

Bob_Latchford

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Sure it can. Check the list of Anglo and AIB creditors. It's like a who's who of European banking. And billionaires. And pension funds.

Throw in the threat to the single currency and the likelihood of Portugal, Spain and Greece defaulting too, and a UK economic disaster resulting from their trade surplus with Ireland vanishing overnight and their banks taking a vicious hit, and you have a perfect storm, my friend.

I suppose Im hoping its hyperbole to get people in the street and strengthen negotiators hand. But still worst in world ever? cant get my head round that

hotmail.com

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

Did he say its The worst banking crisis in the world ever.

I know its bad but it cant be worst in world ever can it?

Probably yes, for the size of our country.

ArtSmart

Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

utter devastation for decades.

better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .

Cavehill Red

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

I suppose Im hoping its hyperbole to get people in the street and strengthen negotiators hand. But still worst in world ever? cant get my head round that

Potentially the worst. It's not happened yet. We've been kicking this can down the road for two years now. But the endgame is coming.

Scofflaw

ArtSmart wrote: »

Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

utter devastation for decades.

better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

We've a far better class of crossroads these days - they'd fit a lot more maidens.

cordially,
Scofflaw

bleg

ArtSmart wrote: »

utter devastation for decades.

Same either way.

Birdnuts

ArtSmart wrote: »

Kinda wonder about Lucy here - seems to be sacrificing his career to the loony fringe

suppose they do call our bluff, Paul hmmm?

utter devastation for decades.

better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .

Eithier way we're fupped:(

hotmail.com

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Yes but the banks assets are not entirely worthless unlike what Lucy would have you believe. Yes they have distressed assets and non performing loans, but the deal cut by the IMF that was revealed tonight was to sell off these loans with a loss sharing arrangement with the buyers, in order to reduce the size of the banks.

Why does Browne allow those "economists" to frighten people? I know fear is in high demand at the moment but its ridiculous.

Are you taking into account the interest rate that we have to pay for the debts?

ArtSmart

bleg wrote: »

Same either way.

a = lights

b = no lights

c= no lights anywhere

wylo

ArtSmart wrote: »

better in debt up to our necks with the lights on, than huddled in the dark, debt free.

you cant go 'all in' if you know losing means walking home in the rain .

you need to elaborate here instead of using metaphors, why would we be huddled in the dark, we will be starting clean.We'll be huddled for a short time and probably a horrible time but would it not give us the opportunity to start growing again as opposed to sitting around paying massive interest with no growth.

Cavehill Red

hotmail.com wrote: »

Are you taking into account the interest rate that we have to pay for the debts?

I'm still trying to work this one out. Can anyone handy with a calculator help?

What is our deficit interest payments per capita per annum currently?

What would the interest at 7% on 85 billion be per annum over a ten year term?

What would the total interest payment per capita per annum for all the above be?

And what would it be per taxpayer per annum?

SB-08

This is just mind-boggling stuff. Yes it has gone beyond politics but as these experts say the Government need to resign now. It is just so serious and we cannot trust the people who got us into this to possibly deal with this situation. This budget will just be a spit on a fire - FG and Labour need to do everything now to get rid of this Government. We simply cannot have these morons negotiating us a deal of this size.

fatalll

Vinny is the most pessemestic man ever..
and he brings on guests who are like him alot of the time.
He may be right in some of it, but the scare mongering is unreal!
Just be a bit more positive..all of us, out our shoulder to the wheel and lets shove!!:)

oppenheimer1

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yeah - lets get on Dan Mclaughlin and some IBEC shrill to tell us how well Google are doing(apparently google profits = Irish GNP):rolleyes:

No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.

Cavehill Red

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

No but lets here from someone who isn't out to scare people. The banks have assets that aren't worthless. Yes we have to make up the difference between assets and liabilities, but to say that we are on the hook for 250bn is wrong. That means on average the banks have lost 50% on their loans. House prices have fallen yes, but not by 50% and not all loans were for houses and not all loans were taken out at the very peak of the boom.

You'll be out buying AIB and BoI shares in the morning, no doubt, since by your analysis they are currently massively undervalued?