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Pat Rabbitte, short memory?

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135

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    #62
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    that's not cooking the books...that's bad planning and lack of foresight.

    i dont argue with this.

    First line of defence - it wasn't corruption, it was incompetence.
    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    i argue with your use of terminology designed to imply willful illegality was engaged in on a wide scale from the DOF to the government ministers - this is simply not the case end of story.

    Second line of defence - if there was corruption, it wasn't widespread.
    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    either way - to get back on topic - there's every reason to believe that if labour or FG were i power they wouldn't have changed a thing. i'd like to see some evidence that they would have cut back projections or spending. you wont find any, because they didn't suggest either.

    Third line of defence - sure everyone else would have done what we did.

    Straight from the FF handbook of defending the indefensible.


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    #63
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    dolphin city wrote: »
    donal, completely have to agree with you there. I

    100% 40 year mortgages. There was talk of 60 year mortgages. Utter madness.


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    #64
    thebigbiffo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,941 ✭✭✭thebigbiffo


    The Muppet wrote: »
    Care to explain last weekends denials that the IMF were coming in?

    FF are a bunch of lying tossers.

    i'll take a stab at that yes...

    i sincerely believe that the screws were turned on us by the EU to accept a loan simply to save their own asses and the asses of spain and portugal. i dont think there was any intention from gov to apply for EU/IMF loans. i believe the story was fed to the BBC from the EU to heap pressure on the gov and i think their initial reaction was 'no way, we dont need to go to the bond markets for 6 months so we'll ride this out till then before making a decision', hence the initial denials. the speculation became rampant and more pressure was applied from all around europe until eventually they were persuaded to talk about a loan in some way - the meeting of finance ministers didn't help matters.

    i dont think it was bare faced lies last weekend - i dont think they realised when making those denials how strong the pressue was about to become. do you seriously think a party loyalists like biffo (and even if he is useless, you cant deny he'd FF to the bone) would want to go down in history as the man who let in the IMF...i dont think so.


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    #65
    thebigbiffo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,941 ✭✭✭thebigbiffo


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    First line of defence - it wasn't corruption, it was incompetence.



    Second line of defence - if there was corruption, it wasn't widespread.



    Third line of defence - sure everyone else would have done what we did.

    Straight from the FF handbook of defending the indefensible.

    seriously, take this to the conspiracy forum then please - there's not too many crackpots out there who think our entire nations finances were completely falsified.


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    #66
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    dolphin city wrote: »
    thats a silly arguement - you are basically saying that the public are a pack of stupid morons that are unable to think for themselves. at the end of the day, you don't purchase something if you cannot afford it no matter how attractive it might seem - basic life lesson that should have been learned in the teenage years.

    While I totally disagree with the posters who blame FF voters only, and ignore the manifesto of whatever party they support, the facts dont support the argument that Irish retail loans caused the problems. Most Irish people with underwater mortgages are paying them off, and the banks are giving people some leeway - a 400,000 mortgage is worth more to them than a 200,000 house. ( You can pursue people in courts for the rest of the money, but good luck with that when people are in Australia).

    retail mortgages are thus far performing. We may have a second crisis when, or if, they fail to perform. I always assumed the Irish property bubble would collapse when interest rates went up, that is yet to happen.

    At the moment, however, the banks are in trouble because of loans to big developers. They have fecked off to Australia, or America, or elsewhere.


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    #67
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    i'll take a stab at that yes...

    i sincerely believe that the screws were turned on us by the EU to accept a loan simply to save their own asses and the asses of spain and portugal. i dont think there was any intention from gov to apply for EU/IMF loans. i believe the story was fed to the BBC from the EU to heap pressure on the gov and i think their initial reaction was 'no way, we dont need to go to the bond markets for 6 months so we'll ride this out till then before making a decision', hence the initial denials. the speculation became rampant and more pressure was applied from all around europe until eventually they were persuaded to talk about a loan in some way - the meeting of finance ministers didn't help matters.

    i dont think it was bare faced lies last weekend - i dont think they realised when making those denials how strong the pressue was about to become. do you seriously think a party loyalists like biffo (and even if he is useless, you cant deny he'd FF to the bone) would want to go down in history as the man who let in the IMF...i dont think so.


    We dont need this loan. The idea is to get Irish taxpayers to pay the loans of German banks who lent to Irish banks without due diligence.


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    #68
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    seriously, take this to the conspiracy forum then please - there's not too many crackpots out there who think our entire nations finances were completely falsified.

    ROFL. If you're going to insist on playing the party line, don't be surprised if people call you on it.
    It's self-evident that the books on which FF entered the 07 election were nonsense, and Ahern admitted that himself the same year.
    You can keep claiming otherwise if you wish, but it only undermines your credibility.


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    #69
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    ROFL. If you're going to insist on playing the party line, don't be surprised if people call you on it.
    It's self-evident that the books on which FF entered the 07 election were nonsense, and Ahern admitted that himself the same year.
    You can keep claiming otherwise if you wish, but it only undermines your credibility.

    At the time they weren't considered nonsense. Even the ESRI suggest medium term growth of 4.5% from 2008.


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    #70
    Corsendonk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    This is my opinion too. Though there is a school of thought which says that senior civil servants in the DoF DID try to alert a number of Ministers for Finance about concerns they had of an overheating unsustainable economy (including Biffo and Lenny) and were shot down by the Ministers.
    It's standard practice in government departments to tailor documents to suit ministerial policy, by the way.

    Yes Minister must be the greatest political comedy of the television era as it seems to reflect the civil service in Britain and Ireland still today.

    So basically we turf out the government, finishing a good few political careers and the guys in the civil service that helped cook the books start advising the new government or retire on their fat pensions. Wonderful!

    If as you said they cooked the books, and the civil service works with the books daily so they should have the truest inside knowledge of the state of the nation they should be charged for fraud at least or treason at most along with the politicians involved? I know Sky News would buy the TV rights to any treason trial and execution, good filler between the royal wedding buildup.
    You never know we could turn a profit!


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    #71
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    Rabble Rabble wrote: »
    At the time they weren't considered nonsense. Even the ESRI suggest medium term growth of 4.5% from 2008.

    The ESRI have historically been probably the biggest counter-indicator in Irish economic circles for years.
    Anything they've come out with has tended to prove exactly wrong. I don't know why anyone listens to them. God knows, their utterances are greeted with laughter by market traders.
    It's worth adding that the ESRI, like Labour or Fine Gael, only had the government's figures to work with. Garbage in Garbage out is the principle.
    If FF and the DoF feed you garbage, then anything you produce based on that data, be it ESRI forecasts or election manifestos, will be garbage too.


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    #72
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    Corsendonk wrote: »
    Yes Minister must be the greatest political comedy of the television era as it seems to reflect the civil service in Britain and Ireland still today.

    So basically we turf out the government, finishing a good few political careers and the guys in the civil service that helped cook the books start advising the new government or retire on their fat pensions. Wonderful!

    If as you said they cooked the books, and the civil service works with the books daily so they should have the truest inside knowledge of the state of the nation they should be charged for fraud at least or treason at most along with the politicians involved? I know Sky News would buy the TV rights to any treason trial and execution, good filler between the royal wedding buildup.
    You never know we could turn a profit!

    There was no book cooking. The tax take was what it was because of the unsustainable property boom. Without lehmen brothers the unsustainable boom would have lasted another few years, it seems.

    Thats Getting It Very Very Wrong, but not book cooking.

    ( Nevertheless I would try and get some kind of criminal incompetance trial for regulators etc.).


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    #73
    Morlar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭Morlar


    To address the original point he does have a short / selective memory. I can not think of a single politician in Ireland who does not.

    I think labour would destroy the economy if they had their way, (in much the same way as putting siptu in power would) so I am not a fan of them by any stretch but having said that from last nights performance I'd say it was probably a genuine reaction and not staged. Rabbitte is certainly a more effective public speaker than gilmore.


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    #74
    thebigbiffo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,941 ✭✭✭thebigbiffo


    Rabble Rabble wrote: »
    We dont need this loan. The idea is to get Irish taxpayers to pay the loans of German banks who lent to Irish banks without due diligence.

    i agree - we do not need this loan. this loan is to prop up the banks further, plain and simple. we can deal with our sovereign debt through these harsh budgets but we gaurnanteed banks (stupidly IMO) that were giving us false info to ensure they were protected. now we're stuck with them and the EU and bond markets know it - and it's the EU that will decide which ones fail and which ones dont, hence the loans.

    that's why, in general, i agree we wont lose too much soverenity. what we will lose is our shirts as we have to pay them back - but it'll be mostly our terms i believe as it's clear this money will only be pandering to the finance markets to the benefit of the whole of the EU.


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    #75
    thebigbiffo
    Registered Users Posts: 2,941 ✭✭✭thebigbiffo


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    ROFL. If you're going to insist on playing the party line, don't be surprised if people call you on it.
    It's self-evident that the books on which FF entered the 07 election were nonsense, and Ahern admitted that himself the same year.
    You can keep claiming otherwise if you wish, but it only undermines your credibility.

    i'm tearing my hair out here:D

    i'll rest my case on this: plain stupidity and dumb optimism does not 'cooked books' make!


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    #76
    donal_mcg
    Registered Users Posts: 48 ✭donal_mcg


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    The ESRI have historically been probably the biggest counter-indicator in Irish economic circles for years.
    Anything they've come out with has tended to prove exactly wrong. I don't know why anyone listens to them. God knows, their utterances are greeted with laughter by market traders.
    It's worth adding that the ESRI, like Labour or Fine Gael, only had the government's figures to work with. Garbage in Garbage out is the principle.
    If FF and the DoF feed you garbage, then anything you produce based on that data, be it ESRI forecasts or election manifestos, will be garbage too.

    Really? Have a watch of this from the year 2000.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THWbrFy5NWM&feature=player_embedded


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    #77
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    i'm tearing my hair out here:D

    i'll rest my case on this: plain stupidity and dumb optimism does not 'cooked books' make!

    You're either far too generous with your assumptions or else you're willfully blinding yourself to reality.
    Let me ask you this: what happened in the few weeks between the 07 general election and Ahern admitting that the cupboard wasn't half as full as he'd previously thought?
    Was there a major economic crisis? No. Was there an international one? No.
    So what happened to suddenly empty our coffers in those few weeks?
    My suggestion is that nothing happened. Having achieved election on the back of bogus figures, Ahern merely presented the reality to the people.


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    #78
    Corsendonk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭Corsendonk


    thebigbiffo wrote: »
    i'm tearing my hair out here:D

    i'll rest my case on this: plain stupidity and dumb optimism does not 'cooked books' make!

    Are you calling the Irish people stupid?


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    #79
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    donal_mcg wrote: »
    Really? Have a watch of this from the year 2000.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THWbrFy5NWM&feature=player_embedded

    Just as a stopped clock is right twice a day, so the ESRI are right once a decade.


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    #80
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    Just as a stopped clock is right twice a day, so the ESRI are right once a decade.

    People said the stopped clock argument about McWilliams.

    That report is enough to damn FF on incompetence, we dont need to believe in corruption. And I personally believe in criminal negligence cases.

    ( At the very least it will avoid a moral hazard in future).


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    #81
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    The Anglo situation could be corrupt, of course. It seems the government was lied to on the guarantee? Is that right?


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    #82
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    Cavehill Red wrote: »
    You're either far too generous with your assumptions or else you're willfully blinding yourself to reality.
    Let me ask you this: what happened in the few weeks between the 07 general election and Ahern admitting that the cupboard wasn't half as full as he'd previously thought?
    Was there a major economic crisis? No. Was there an international one? No.
    So what happened to suddenly empty our coffers in those few weeks?
    My suggestion is that nothing happened. Having achieved election on the back of bogus figures, Ahern merely presented the reality to the people.

    Did he actually say there was a crisis in Irish finances before Lehman? If so, post a dated link.


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    #83
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    Rabble Rabble wrote: »
    People said the stopped clock argument about McWilliams.

    That report is enough to damn FF on incompetence, we dont need to believe in corruption. And I personally believe in criminal negligence cases.

    ( At the very least it will avoid a moral hazard in future).

    Well, David did predict 12 of the last 2 recessions!
    I concur with what you say in relation to the idea that FF weren't warned and warned repeatedly. The likes of Morgan Kelly, and I believe some people within the DoF, not to mention the odd commentator were waving red flags from a long way out.
    I'd be delighted to see any sort of justice brought to bear on those responsible, be it criminal or civil.
    But 15 months into the Anglo investigation, and with most of the bankers abroad, I have no confidence in any justice being achieved.


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    #84
    brianthebard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,165 ✭✭✭✭brianthebard


    If the op was bothered to investigate the different parties policies rather than making the usual smart arsed assumptions of the unpoliticial, they would know that Labour have favoured a policy of nationalisation of the banks, since or before the idea of NAMA was created. This would have shored up the banking system much much more effectively than the banking guarantee and nama and would not have led to the situation we are now in.
    But its far smarter to make bland platitudes about reform parties than it is to actually analyse the existing party policies isn't it.


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    #85
    Cavehill Red
    Registered Users Posts: 6,109 ✭✭✭Cavehill Red


    Rabble Rabble wrote: »
    Did he actually say there was a crisis in Irish finances before Lehman? If so, post a dated link.

    No he didn't say there was a crisis before Lehman, but he started cutting back on his election promises immediately, and by the time of the budget that December he was wittering about 'difficult circumstances.'
    That's my point. Nothing changed in relation to the Irish economy in that time, but suddenly we had difficult circumstances, according to the Bert.


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    #86
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Rabble Rabble wrote: »
    The Anglo situation could be corrupt, of course. It seems the government was lied to on the guarantee? Is that right?

    I think Anglo were praying that the situation wouldn't have deteriorated so dramatically and blindly thought that they could wade through their problems. It was an optimisitic viewpoint - taking the pessimistic view would have fulfilled the view - as we have seen since anyway.


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    #87
    Earthhorse
    Registered Users Posts: 14,714 ✭✭✭✭Earthhorse


    Yeah, there's no evidence to suggest FG or Labour would have done a better job at the helm, and given that we didn't vote them into power there's even less evidence of it now. In fact, why bother holding elections or having competing political parties at all? I know that when my next performance review comes up in work I'll be interested in what they thought about the guy they didn't hire.


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    #88
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    brianthebard wrote: »
    If the op was bothered to investigate the different parties policies rather than making the usual smart arsed assumptions of the unpoliticial, they would know that Labour have favoured a policy of nationalisation of the banks, since or before the idea of NAMA was created. This would have shored up the banking system much much more effectively than the banking guarantee and nama and would not have led to the situation we are now in.
    But its far smarter to make bland platitudes about reform parties than it is to actually analysis the existing party policies isn't it.


    We are talking about what they offered during the boom.

    Labour in it's manifesto here is stoking the boom somewhat.
    A 2-point cut in the standard rate of tax from 20 per cent to 18 per cent.

    and
    Raise the zero stamp duty threshold for first time buyers from €317,500 to €450,000 with duty paid only on the excess over this threshold.

    That bit is prepostorous.

    The rest of the manifesto is alright, actually. This is good:
    Our approach to fiscal policy in government will be situated in the context of our over-riding commitment to the EU Growth and Stability Pact, to which Ireland is committed as part of our adoption of the euro.This means respecting the requirement that, over the course of an economic cycle, the General Government Balance will, on average, not exceed 1 per cent of GDP.

    We will avoid pro-cyclical fiscal policies that increase inflation and reduce long-run competitiveness. There is a requirement to slow growth in day-to-day spending down from the present unsustainable rate towards the rate of growth in the economy.

    The manifesto as a whole is saner than the tax cuts ( however progressive), and the stamp duty allowances.

    What absolutely no manifesto could have said was a

    1) banning of 100% loans
    2) banning of 40 year loans
    3) Force a deposit of 20%.

    Had that happened those actions would have ended the property boom - with less effect than now - , and these boards would be blaming any party which did that for causing their negative equity. It was impossible politically.

    nevertheless the blame lies with the people who could have stopped the rot at the start - not Labour.


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    #89
    Rabble Rabble
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭Rabble Rabble


    Btw I went to the Labour manifesto to scoff a bit ( since I remembered the stamp duty bit), but the last bit I quoted stopped the scoffing. They should have got my vote had I read all the manifestos. ( As it happens I didnt vote in Ireland that year - I registered in England).


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    #90
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    perhaps the main problem is that a lot of people in the department of finance at the time were career civil servants with no market experience. whilst we were obviously powerless to stop the international crisis, i suspect if we had people with the experience of the likes Dermot Somerville, Morgan Kelly or David McWilliams in that governmental department this thread would not now exist.

    i have to also think that if Richard Bruton was finance minister over the last two years he would have pursued a different course. i say this because it was a total farce that a qualified barrister can be appointed minister of finance in a financial crisis.


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    #91
    Pal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭Pal


    nacho libre wrote: »
    perhaps if Richard Bruton was finance minister .

    WTF would he have done ?
    FG and Labour had no foresight either.
    Completely clueless all along just like FF.

    So now they want to run the show.
    Who cares ?
    Let them have it .


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