Who supports merkel?

biko · 12-11-2010 05:35PM

Careful now

My name is URL · 12-11-2010 06:12PM

K-9 wrote: »

So she suggests what most people have been moaning about for months, bondholders taking a hit and she gets knocked for it.

It'll have to be done eventually and we'll be glad we have the backing of the EU and Germany in the fight against the markets when it comes to the time.

It was always 'going to have to be done eventually', so why now and not before the situation became as bad as it is regarding Irish bonds? Do you think it's coincidental that this comes at the same time as rumors of an Irish bailout mount?

K-9 · 12-11-2010 06:18PM

My name is URL wrote: »

It was always 'going to have to be done eventually', so why now and not before the situation became as bad as it is regarding Irish bonds? Do you think it's coincidental that this comes at the same time as rumors of an Irish bailout mount?

I think it came because they and we know we are fecked, the EU/IMF coming in is just a mere formality at this stage.

As bad as it is? It was 7/8% anyway. I'd say Enda Kenny and Morgan Kelly have as much to blame, if not more than Merkel!

What do you have against the idea of letting bondholder's take a hit? I thought most people would be for it. Is it just because it is a German saying it rather than an Irish politician?

dotsman · 12-11-2010 09:45PM

K-9 wrote: »

I think it came because they and we know we are fecked, the EU/IMF coming in is just a mere formality at this stage.

As bad as it is? It was 7/8% anyway. I'd say Enda Kenny and Morgan Kelly have as much to blame, if not more than Merkel!

What do you have against the idea of letting bondholder's take a hit? I thought most people would be for it. Is it just because it is a German saying it rather than an Irish politician?

For those who were opposed to the guarantee, we are currently witnessing just a little taste of what would have happened if the guarantee hadn't been brought in.

The bond market has been getting worse for Ireland over the past months and is pretty much frozen at the moment for 3 reasons.

The massive budget deficit. How can Ireland hope to fund these debts while they are still borrowing huge amounts propping up an over-inflated public sector and social welfare bill.
Unknown government Future. It is very likely that the current government will not be power for much longer. There is a fear that Labour might have a say in the running of our economy and, thus, its complete collapse.
An anticipated discount on Irish bonds. As per Merkel's "accidental" statement (she later clarified by saying that she was referring to bonds after 2013), there is an understandable fear regarding Irish bonds and that the government might force bondholders to take a cut. Would you lend to someone who's indicating that they will only repay you X%?

We have several months to get this crisis sorted. That involves properly introducing feasible, but large cuts to public spending, having an election where Labour do not come into power (or, at the very least, are not the dominating party in a coalition), and proving to the bondmarkets that we can and will repay our debts.

I would love to make the bondholders pay. It sounds easy, and yes, they are professional investors and knew/know the risk they were/are taking. However, they have us over a barrel. Unfortunately, at this time, we need them a hell of a lot more than they do us.

The best solution is to get our budget in order asap. Then, we will be in a better position to deal with the bondholders.

dsmythy · 12-11-2010 09:53PM

dotsman wrote: »

We have several months to get this crisis sorted. That involves properly introducing feasible, but large cuts to public spending, having an election where Labour do not come into power (or, at the very least, are not the dominating party in a coalition), and proving to the bondmarkets that we can and will repay our debts.

Labour coming to power would be a disaster but even they would cut public spending. They'll promise not to and then break their promise and do it anyway.

12-11-2010 09:53PM

dotsman wrote: »

There is a fear that Labour might have a say in the running of our economy and, thus, its complete collapse.

I think FF have already managed to do this without any help from Labour.

galwayrush · 12-11-2010 09:55PM

She is out boss:rolleyes:

K-9 · 12-11-2010 10:10PM

dotsman wrote: »

For those who were opposed to the guarantee, we are currently witnessing just a little taste of what would have happened if the guarantee hadn't been brought in.

The bond market has been getting worse for Ireland over the past months and is pretty much frozen at the moment for 3 reasons.
The massive budget deficit. How can Ireland hope to fund these debts while they are still borrowing huge amounts propping up an over-inflated public sector and social welfare bill.

Unknown government Future. It is very likely that the current government will not be power for much longer. There is a fear that Labour might have a say in the running of our economy and, thus, its complete collapse.

An anticipated discount on Irish bonds. As per Merkel's "accidental" statement (she later clarified by saying that she was referring to bonds after 2013), there is an understandable fear regarding Irish bonds and that the government might force bondholders to take a cut. Would you lend to someone who's indicating that they will only repay you X%?

We have several months to get this crisis sorted. That involves properly introducing feasible, but large cuts to public spending, having an election where Labour do not come into power (or, at the very least, are not the dominating party in a coalition), and proving to the bondmarkets that we can and will repay our debts.

I would love to make the bondholders pay. It sounds easy, and yes, they are professional investors and knew/know the risk they were/are taking. However, they have us over a barrel. Unfortunately, at this time, we need them a hell of a lot more than they do us.

The best solution is to get our budget in order asap. Then, we will be in a better position to deal with the bondholders.

The problem is we can't win with the markets.

€4.5 Billion worth of cuts and €1.5 Billion worth of tax increases. That will affect spending and GDP.

That's what the cut, cut, cut brigade forget. If you cut 1% of GDP by solely cutting Govt. expenditure, that will represent a .5/.6% cut in growth.

So, when the results come out for November/December 2010 and the first couple of months of 2011 showing growth decreasing or maybe even back negative, what do you think the markets will do?

General General · 12-11-2010 10:25PM

I propose we start using seashells for currency.... pay off what we owe in those.

My name is URL · 12-11-2010 10:27PM

K-9 wrote: »

The problem is we can't win with the markets.

€4.5 Billion worth of cuts and €1.5 Billion worth of tax increases. That will affect spending and GDP.

That's what the cut, cut, cut brigade forget. If you cut 1% of GDP by solely cutting Govt. expenditure, that will represent a .5/.6% cut in growth.

So, when the results come out for November/December 2010 and the first couple of months of 2011 showing growth decreasing or maybe even back negative, what do you think the markets will do?

It really is about the short-term for most people isn't it? Your opening sentence scares and saddens me. Of course it's true, placing a small burden on the bondholders now is not going to make them all fall into line and accept whatever is being offered in return for their 'service'.

They'll continue to tweak their models to maximize their gains. Take one euro from them now and they'll rake it back over time, along with whatever they feel is a necessary cost for bearing the risk.

K-9 · 12-11-2010 10:36PM

My name is URL wrote: »

It really is about the short-term for most people isn't it? Your opening sentence scares and saddens me. Of course it's true, placing a small burden on the bondholders now is not going to make them all fall into line and accept whatever is being offered in return for their 'service'.

They'll continue to tweak their models to maximize their gains. Take one euro from them now and they'll rake it back over time, along with whatever they feel is a necessary cost for bearing the risk.

These proposals and they are proposals, wont come on the agenda until 2013, after the current fund is up. So, when we look for the EU/IMF fund next year, this isn't in it.

It isn't even a certainty that it will actually become law. It could fall by the wayside like the excluding countries like Ireland from voting proposal.

Short term? Our long term option atm is the EU/IMF, unless you have another one?

Lenihan or if a new Govt. by then, might wise up and let bondholder's take a hit like they are starting to do with some bonds in Anglo and Irish Nationwide, but I doubt it will happen. Do FG and Labour propose this?

Just wondering how politically realistic discounting the bonds is now. While I like that idea, if it isn't "on the table!"

, it really is a waste of time talking about it.

dotsman · 12-11-2010 10:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think FF have already managed to do this without any help from Labour.

While I might disagree with FF's economic policies over the past decade, they are nothing compared to Labour's (who don't really have policies save reversing the public sector pay cuts, and collapsing the banking sector leaving the banking debts fully at teh hands of the taxpayer).

Belive me, if you think that the current situation could be described as "economic collapse" - you ain't seen nothing yet. Give Gilmore a month in power and you'll truly understand that phrase.

dsmythy wrote: »

Labour coming to power would be a disaster but even they would cut public spending. They'll promise not to and then break their promise and do it anyway.

Well, that's the problem with Labour. We know they won't be able to do what they say, but then that leaves the question - What will they do? At least with some other party you might have an idea of what they intend to cut (and what they intend to raise) and can vote accordingly if you agree with the policy.

K-9 wrote: »

The problem is we can't win with the markets.

€4.5 Billion worth of cuts and €1.5 Billion worth of tax increases. That will affect spending and GDP.

That's what the cut, cut, cut brigade forget. If you cut 1% of GDP by solely cutting Govt. expenditure, that will represent a .5/.6% cut in growth.

So, when the results come out for November/December 2010 and the first couple of months of 2011 showing growth decreasing or maybe even back negative, what do you think the markets will do?

Oh, I know well the affect the cuts will have on the economy. But, firstly, it is only short-term pain (for, hopefully, long-term gain!). But secondly, its the fact that there is a plan and the markets can make somewhat realistic predictions on Ireland's long-term financial health. It's all the current unknown's which drive the media frenzy/speculation/BS and, thus, panic.

take everything · 12-11-2010 10:47PM

K-9 wrote: »

So she suggests what most people have been moaning about for months, bondholders taking a hit and she gets knocked for it.

It'll have to be done eventually and we'll be glad we have the backing of the EU and Germany in the fight against the markets when it comes to the time.

Not an expert in this stuff but this was my impression.
Isn't she just doing what Cowen and Lenihan are too spineless to do.
She's the only person i've seen to be not be in awe of the bond holders.

K-9 · 12-11-2010 10:53PM

dotsman wrote: »

While I might disagree with FF's economic policies over the past decade, they are nothing compared to Labour's (who don't really have policies save reversing the public sector pay cuts, and collapsing the banking sector leaving the banking debts fully at teh hands of the taxpayer).

Belive me, if you think that the current situation could be described as "economic collapse" - you ain't seen nothing yet. Give Gilmore a month in power and you'll truly understand that phrase.

Well, that's the problem with Labour. We know they won't be able to do what they say, but then that leaves the question - What will they do? At least with some other party you might have an idea of what they intend to cut (and what they intend to raise) and can vote accordingly if you agree with the policy.

Oh, I know well the affect the cuts will have on the economy. But, firstly, it is only short-term pain (for, hopefully, long-term gain!). But secondly, its the fact that there is a plan and the markets can make somewhat realistic predictions on Ireland's long-term financial health. It's all the current unknown's which drive the media frenzy/speculation/BS and, thus, panic.

The problem is the markets only thing short term, young lads thinking of bonuses and pay outs, plus we are an easy target, just another Greece to them and then Portugal after. They'll see reduced or negative growth and decreased tax revenues and higher the rates again.

take everything wrote: »

Not an expert in this stuff but this was my impression.
Isn't she just doing what Cowen and Lenihan are too spineless to do.
She's the only person i've seen to be not be in awe of the bond holders.

Thought so. The EU has tried to face up to bankers and hedge funds and it isn't just Merkel, Sarkozy is no fan of them and bondholders either.

12-11-2010 10:58PM

dotsman wrote: »

While I might disagree with FF's economic policies over the past decade, they are nothing compared to Labour's (who don't really have policies save reversing the public sector pay cuts, and collapsing the banking sector leaving the banking debts fully at teh hands of the taxpayer).

FF have already left banking debts fully in the hands of the taxpayer with their ridiculous, almost unconditional bank guarantee.

If one were to set out to deliberately destroy the sustainable, export driven economy we had in the mid to late 90s it would be difficult to do a better job than FF.

They did this by pandering to certain vested interests who filled the party coffers, and creating and sustaining a ridiculous property bubble. Even now as the house of cards collapses around them, they are still pandering to those vested interests (guarantee for the banks, NAMA for the developers) and making the situation even worse.

As for Gilmore, it's impossible to predict how well/badly he and his party would handle this mess, but he couldn't possibly be any worse than the current shower who have so completley run the country into the ground.

It's this bizarre and irrational "better the devil you know" philosophy exhibited by a large proportion of the electorate that has played a pivotal role in our downfall.

K-9 · 12-11-2010 10:58PM

PS.There has been some good news in the last month, Unemployment reducing, Exports up, Reduced numbers in the Public Service, severe budget coming up, this years figures on target, all ignored by the markets.

bleg · 12-11-2010 11:03PM

Angie's a hero. She can annex Ireland all she wants, I'd be fine with that.

cml387 · 12-11-2010 11:04PM

Back in the early 60's,loads of Germans moved to or bought houses in west Cork and Kerry because,by looking at prevailing winds and Irish neutrality they reckoned it was the safest place to be in the event of nuclear war.

So for being an unofficial fallout shelter we are looking for payback.

OK it may be grasping at straws somewhat.

dsmythy · 12-11-2010 11:05PM

The one sad thing about this thread is the fact that we are now asking how a foreign leader is performing with regards to our economic policy.

sollar · 12-11-2010 11:32PM

Listen to this if you have the time:

http://media.newstalk.ie/podcast/21519/popup

Its quite informative and he supports what Angela Merkel is saying. The 2 Brians have made such a mistake.

dotsman · 13-11-2010 12:03AM

Deleted User wrote: »

FF have already left banking debts fully in the hands of the taxpayer with their ridiculous, almost unconditional bank guarantee.

Yes, but in an effort to keep them (and the economy running) despite the best attempts by the media/cynics. By no means perfect, and they have royally screwed up NAMA, by pandering to the mob.

Labour, on the other hand, want to just destroy the banks (to punish them). Everyone will feel great for about 5 minutes, then wonder we are in economic meltdown.

Deleted User wrote: »

If one were to set out to deliberately destroy the sustainable, export driven economy we had in the mid to late 90s it would be difficult to do a better job than FF.

I agree with you that they really fkucked it yup. But they did it the very same way that labour are acting now, by pandering to the mobs and thinking only of the short term.

Deleted User wrote: »

They did this by pandering to certain vested interests who filled the party coffers, and creating and sustaining a ridiculous property bubble. Even now as the house of cards collapses around them, they are still pandering to those vested interests (guarantee for the banks, NAMA for the developers) and making the situation even worse.

You are forgetting the biggest vested interest of all - the people of Ireland. It's teh people who voted for them. It's the people who's unions demanded pay rise after pay rise. It's the people who have ultimate responsibility for running the country, but as long as the salaries kept increasing, taxes kept lowering, the price of peoples homes kept increasing so they felt very rich, the whole time believing they were kings of the world, everyone was quite happy to play along.

Of course a few, didn't, but they never do anyway:D

Deleted User wrote: »

As for Gilmore, it's impossible to predict how well/badly he and his party would handle this mess, but he couldn't possibly be any worse than the current shower who have so completley run the country into the ground.

I disagree. I think Gilmore is extremely dangerous. He tels everyone what they want to hear. But we know he can't do what he promises. This is not just regular political lying to get a few votes. This is one big huge charade.

Deleted User wrote: »

It's this bizarre and irrational "better the devil you know" philosophy exhibited by a large proportion of the electorate that has played a pivotal role in our downfall.

I'm afraid it's not. I didn't vote for FF in the last election because I disagreed with too many of their policies (and not just the economic ones!). However, we do have an utterly abismal choice in this country. FG looked promising for a few minutes there when they made a move against Kenny. But then they backed down, showing that they have no intention of changing. With the PDs gone and the Greens' going, that just leaves us with the radical lefties.

Anyway, this is really getting a bit off topic. I don't want to get into a political party debate (cos I really dislike all of them and could be here all night pointing out how $hite each of them are).

13-11-2010 12:15AM

dotsman wrote: »

Anyway, this is really getting a bit off topic. I don't want to get into a political party debate (cos I really dislike all of them and could be here all night pointing out how $hite each of them are).

Yes, depressing isn't it?

squod · 13-11-2010 12:23AM

sollar wrote: »

Listen to this if you have the time:

http://media.newstalk.ie/podcast/21519/popup

Its quite informative and he supports what Angela Merkel is saying. The 2 Brians have made such a mistake.

Do you think the government got rolled over by the banks?

I lol'ed. Completely missing the point. They are in cahoots!

They love the Irish... they're making huge profit from the Irish

Never a truer word said. How many more times do people need to be reminded of this. 9% + folks.

K-9 · 13-11-2010 12:34AM

squod wrote: »

Never a truer word said. How many more times do people need to be reminded of this. 9% + folks.

Nobody has made 9% out of us.

squod · 13-11-2010 12:36AM

K-9 wrote: »

Nobody has made 9% out of us.

lol

K-9 · 13-11-2010 12:51AM

squod wrote: »

lol

Do go on.

Do you know how much Greece pays?

PS. Do you actually think we are borrowing at 9%?

squod · 13-11-2010 12:54AM

K-9 wrote: »

Do go on.

Do you know how much Greece pays?

PS. Do you actually think we are borrowing at 9%?

Watch the news. It's now fallen to 8. something.

Edit, I don't care how much Greece pays.

squod · 13-11-2010 01:12AM

While Ireland is fully funded until the middle of next year, the extra yield investors demand to hold Irish 10-year government bonds rather than German bunds, the euro-region’s benchmark security..............

Investors should buy Irish bonds as prices overstate the likelihood of default, according to NCB Stockbrokers Ltd.

Bloomberg

K-9 · 13-11-2010 01:25AM

squod wrote: »

Bloomberg

So we haven't paid 9%.

It's like blood out of a stone, bit like the markets. We haven't paid 9% and we wont!

The whole point of the EU/IMF fund is we don't pay 8/9/10% on Bonds!

ascanbe · 13-11-2010 01:27AM

dotsman wrote: »

For those who were opposed to the guarantee, we are currently witnessing just a little taste of what would have happened if the guarantee hadn't been brought in.

The bond market has been getting worse for Ireland over the past months and is pretty much frozen at the moment for 3 reasons.
The massive budget deficit. How can Ireland hope to fund these debts while they are still borrowing huge amounts propping up an over-inflated public sector and social welfare bill.

Unknown government Future. It is very likely that the current government will not be power for much longer. There is a fear that Labour might have a say in the running of our economy and, thus, its complete collapse.

An anticipated discount on Irish bonds. As per Merkel's "accidental" statement (she later clarified by saying that she was referring to bonds after 2013), there is an understandable fear regarding Irish bonds and that the government might force bondholders to take a cut. Would you lend to someone who's indicating that they will only repay you X%?

We have several months to get this crisis sorted. That involves properly introducing feasible, but large cuts to public spending, having an election where Labour do not come into power (or, at the very least, are not the dominating party in a coalition), and proving to the bondmarkets that we can and will repay our debts.

I would love to make the bondholders pay. It sounds easy, and yes, they are professional investors and knew/know the risk they were/are taking. However, they have us over a barrel. Unfortunately, at this time, we need them a hell of a lot more than they do us.

The best solution is to get our budget in order asap. Then, we will be in a better position to deal with the bondholders.

Funny, i thought the bond market has been getting 'worse' for Ireland because the 'markets' have realised that Ireland, as a direct result of the banking guarantee, have taken on an insane level of debt we can never hope to repay and will cause us to default.
Nice to learn it's because of the 'markets' concern about Labour getting into power and their misinterpretation of Angela Merkel's comments.
Or maybe your post is just a report straight from the bizarro world of our current government.

Who supports merkel?

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