Irish Times: €5 billion in cuts now required

Permabear · 19-10-2010 10:30AM #1

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rumour · 19-10-2010 10:50AM

donegalfella wrote: »

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That would be acknowledging reality. We are two years into a crisis and only waking up to what should have been the reaction on day one. Get the current account in order.

Those of us here who have said that public sector spending must be culled have been proved right. Not because of some vendetta against the public sector simply because of the figures. I am beginning to think that the national deficiency in mathematical skills is really at epidemic levels.

I think what we will have is in the interests of 'fairness' roughly a 50-50 split between taxes and cuts. The fact that this will crucify the country is irrelevant. There is a deep rooted mentality that if the public sector is going down all has to go with it. Unions TD's civil servants all believe still they should be the last to suffer and the only reason they are suffering is because of the private sector.

So we are heading straight back to the eighties only worse. Watch investment flee from this country.

Of course I could be completely wrong but I can't find any evidence to support myself being wrong!!

phunkymonk · 19-10-2010 10:55AM

F**K sake!

Count Dooku · 19-10-2010 10:59AM

Indo says about up to 7 Bn

Rather than a €3bn package of cuts and taxes, the adjustment will certainly be as high as €4.5bn and could break the €6bn mark.

Based on the worst-case scenario of a €15bn hole in the finances, if the Government wants to get the deficit below 10pc next year, it would have to make an adjustment of anything up to €7bn.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/budget/news/budget-2011-double-the-pain-2384774.html

dlofnep · 19-10-2010 10:59AM

We're all going to get it. Nobody is coming away from this without suffering. I'm not in a position to move out of Ireland due to long-term illness, but if I was fit - I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Our entire economy has been thrown to a tar-pit as a direct result of greed. And while the greedy get away with it - those who are not responsible, both wealthy and poor will face the blunt for it.

It's all very depressing.

Permabear · 19-10-2010 11:53AM

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ei.sdraob · 19-10-2010 12:13PM

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

Heard on the radio this morning about the cuts of a billion in HSE, all of these cuts will be in essential areas since the 70% of the cost that is the wages is untouchable thanks to Croke park
next time muppets here in Galway protest about hospital closure someone please point out to them the Croke park shaped elephant in the corner. May they direct their anger where it belongs.

20Cent · 19-10-2010 12:23PM

dlofnep wrote: »

We're all going to get it. Nobody is coming away from this without suffering. I'm not in a position to move out of Ireland due to long-term illness, but if I was fit - I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Our entire economy has been thrown to a tar-pit as a direct result of greed. And while the greedy get away with it - those who are not responsible, both wealthy and poor will face the blunt for it.

It's all very depressing.

Anglo's Bondholders will come out pretty well, the bankers who caused the mess are living well too, people who sold Ireland short doing well. Not bad for everyone.

Permabear · 19-10-2010 12:24PM

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Riskymove · 19-10-2010 12:24PM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

you mean 'taxpayers' right?

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

why not?

since the 70% of the cost that is the wages is untouchable thanks to Croke park

incorrect

ei.sdraob · 19-10-2010 12:32PM

Riskymove wrote: »

you mean 'taxpayers' right?

a subset of taxpayers who are not on the government payroll, have no job security and have to live in a real world.

actually everyone will be paying indirectly anyways, see hospital closures

Riskymove wrote: »

why not?

good question, too diverse a group, for example why do consumers not form associations which could tell the the likes of ESB to get real?
there is a name for this occurence in economics but i can think of it right now

Riskymove wrote: »

incorrect

dont shoot the messenger! that's what the minister for health claimed on the radio, if she lied then its not a first for FF, i would be interested in seeing some real figures of course if you have them handy

donegalfella wrote: »

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well some of us here did "foresee" that

interest payments will become a large drag on finances

27 billion of debt has to be paid back or rolled over in the next 3 years
oh that's gonna be fun!

that economist one frontline yesterday had a good point, but he didnt mention that a short sharp cut would also mean more money available in long term for all sorts of social schemes, money that will instead go now to servicing debt.

Amhran Nua · 19-10-2010 12:35PM

rumour wrote: »

We are two years into a crisis and only waking up to what should have been the reaction on day one.

Plenty of people have been screaming about this day since 2005 and earlier.

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

The lobby in question was meant to be the politicians themselves.

And can everyone stop referring to the deficit in terms of the GDP; Ireland's GDP means a lot less than its GNP, which in turn doesn't matter as much as the actual tax revenues versus expenditure ratio.

Permabear · 19-10-2010 12:37PM

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Riskymove · 19-10-2010 12:38PM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

dont shoot the messenger! that's what the minister for health claimed on the radio, if she lied then its not a first for FF, i would be interested in seeing some real figures of course if you have them handy

the Croke park deal only agrees to no core pay cuts and no compulsary redundancies

overtime, allowances, shift patterns, sick leave/absenteeism, front line staff in managerial roles, no tackling of underperformance etc are all still there for the HSE if the Govt and Management would go and deal with them

in addition there is a lot of talk about a voluntary redundancy and/or early retirement schemes for the HSE

ei.sdraob · 19-10-2010 12:41PM

donegalfella wrote: »

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sorry those bloody exPDs :P

but yeh its hard to tell bull**** from reality anymore coming from the current government.

cleremy jarkson · 19-10-2010 12:45PM

donegalfella wrote: »

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This should be stickied somewhere so that anyone about to post in a thread about the dole or budget cuts knows those figures. A 15% cut would still leave it at 166.

The Recliner · 19-10-2010 12:49PM

Cutting TD's salary's and expenses and perks would certainly seem to be a good place to start

lead by example and all that, I wont hold my breath though

johnnyskeleton · 19-10-2010 12:53PM

donegalfella wrote: »

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I don't think the poor means people on social welfare anymore. Usually it means people on low incomes struggling to survive. As in, "oh sure look at poor ole johnny, workin away like a shlup trying to pay his rent, if only get gave up working he'd get everything for free plus another 196 squid for food, clothes and kicks."

Dirk Gently · 19-10-2010 12:59PM

I wonder would a possible "consensus" maybe be reached between leo varadkars school of thought on a quick sharp correction and FF. It would certainly separate Labour and FG at opposite ends of the cuts debate with FF sitting pretty in the middle.

Could mean some sort of FF coalition (albeit them being the smaller party) would be the only viable outcome of a general election as FG and Lab would then be too far apart to form a stable government. I can see Labour wanting to spread any increased cuts over a greater number of years where as FG seem to be trying to narrow the time frame. IMO getting under 3% within 4 years is not achievable without killing the economy all together, especially in light of even bigger savings now being required. interesting times ahead. I look forward to Lab and FG setting out their stalls very soon.

dan_d · 19-10-2010 01:57PM

Have to say I screamed when I saw Mary Harney's remarks on the percentage of the wage bill in the HSE.

Don't know the HSE overall bill - but it sounds to me like they want to cut a huge percentage of the health budget by looking at the minority percentage of expenses.

You don't need to be a mathematician to figure out that that's just fooking stupid.

Harney should now be calling for the Croke Park deal to be reviewed (preferably tossed altogether).She's not FF (as someone kindly pointed out!). The simple response to all the unions who are angrily shouting on the airwaves about these cuts is "here's the choice...we cut frontline services or we cut wages and the number of people working for us. You choose".

It will become abundantly clear exactly what the unions real positions are then. Put them in a position where they have to choose what you want because the other option makes them look awful - and they tend to be pretty concerned about that, given their entire argument is crap about respecting patients' needs and putting the patients first.

The whole thing is sickening, including the fact it's taken 2 years, umpteen reports, and 450,000 on the dole for this realisation to sink in.

Maj Malfunction · 19-10-2010 03:43PM

Fixing the HSE should be simple... Scrap it!

Let the hospitals manage themselvers, cut out the majority of the middle management fat, that should save a couple of billion and stop staff taking career breaks and using the opportunity to work as agency staff at higher cost to the taxpayer within the Irish health system that will save approx 100 million.

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

irishh_bob · 19-10-2010 03:56PM

Maj Malfunction wrote: »

Fixing the HSE should be simple... Scrap it!

Let the hospitals manage themselvers, cut out the majority of the middle management fat, that should save a couple of billion and stop staff taking career breaks and using the opportunity to work as agency staff at higher cost to the taxpayer within the Irish health system that will save approx 100 million.

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

only fine gael could take on the unions though not with the populist centrist kenny at the helm , labour are obviously joined at the hip with them but so are fianna fail and always have been

mrgaa1 · 19-10-2010 04:00PM

i was listening on the radio this afternoon and the interviewer said that 70% of the HSE bill is on wages and as thats protected then the cuts have to come from the 30%. Could this be possibly true? Surely, surely at least a 15-20% paycut across the board, compulsory retirement of middle managers etc.... and leave frontline care (staff) alone and purchase generic medicines as has already been indicated would sort this out.

Apparently overtime bills, agency bills run into 2-300million alone

rumour · 19-10-2010 04:01PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Plenty of people have been screaming about this day since 2005 and earlier.

True....and I thought two years ago that it couldn't be more evident. Sadly I underestimated or was unaware of just how disconnected large parts of our society were from simple economic realities.

ParkRunner · 19-10-2010 04:05PM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

dan_d · 19-10-2010 04:08PM

EF wrote: »

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

Very true, however at this point in time the PS IS a massive part of this problem. And it would appear that the Croke Park agreement has not come anywhere near solving the problem. Which would suggest that there's more cuts that can be made in the PS. Which is not happening.

Which is why we are all so annoyed.

Bjorn Bored. · 19-10-2010 04:09PM

donegalfella wrote: »

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OMG Someone give me the smelling salts, I am actually reeling from those figures!! Look if 96euro was good enough for an unemployed jobseeker back in the heady days of 2000,it is more than enough for them now! We have to get real here,we cannot pay people these huge dole payments for doing nothing, I know there are few jobs out there right now,but it aint gonna get any better if we continue to make it easier for people not to even try by paying them so much. This has to be our first step,35 to 50% cuts in dole payments,followed by a similar amount in the public sector. No one said this was gonna be easy so lets stop pussy footin around and get started. I honestly believe that we would be a much better country and would attract large investment if we make these cuts,it will hurt for a few yrs but in the medium term it will turn our nation around.

murphaph · 19-10-2010 04:11PM

EF wrote: »

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

This is a fair comment. The PS wage bill being cut will help, but will not bring us back into the black on its own. The other sacred cows of social welfare/pensions will have to shoulder their bit of it as well as taxes generally increasing for the rest of us.

ParkRunner · 19-10-2010 04:15PM

dan_d wrote: »

Very true, however at this point in time the PS IS a massive part of this problem. And it would appear that the Croke Park agreement has not come anywhere near solving the problem. Which would suggest that there's more cuts that can be made in the PS. Which is not happening.

Which is why we are all so annoyed.

It is a problem. How to deal with it realistically is another question. Pay has been cut and as can be seen the domestic economy is currently contracting, which isn't helping the jobs problem. Numbers employed in the public sector are falling and not being replaced. Employment contracts simply cannot be torn up and yet there has not been any voluntary redundancy programme.

Expenditure needs to fall, no question about that and expenditure on public services has fallen, is falling and will continue to fall. Without banks willing to lend to SME's and new ventures however the lack of jobs remain an even bigger problem than the public sector in my opinion. We can't fix one without the other.

mrgaa1 · 19-10-2010 04:41PM

Maj Malfunction wrote: »

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

+1 well said

SeaFields · 19-10-2010 04:56PM

donegalfella wrote: »

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I am not overly familiar with it but arent there two payments - JSA and JSB? One is, what the old people refer to as, drawing down stamps i.e. people who were in work and paid PRSI and are now unemployed. The other is "free dole" - another older phrase.

Do these have to be the same? For example, could they not reduce the PRSI one by the amount of deflation and drastically cut the other - the one that people didn't do a tap to get. So that people who did indeed pay PRSI for years rightly benefit from this and the scroungers who never lifted a finger get bare, bare minimum.

This is more of a query, rather than an argument for or against it, if anyone knows the answer?

Irish Times: €5 billion in cuts now required

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