Irish Times: €5 billion in cuts now required

Permabear

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rumour

donegalfella wrote: »

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That would be acknowledging reality. We are two years into a crisis and only waking up to what should have been the reaction on day one. Get the current account in order.

Those of us here who have said that public sector spending must be culled have been proved right. Not because of some vendetta against the public sector simply because of the figures. I am beginning to think that the national deficiency in mathematical skills is really at epidemic levels.

I think what we will have is in the interests of 'fairness' roughly a 50-50 split between taxes and cuts. The fact that this will crucify the country is irrelevant. There is a deep rooted mentality that if the public sector is going down all has to go with it. Unions TD's civil servants all believe still they should be the last to suffer and the only reason they are suffering is because of the private sector.

So we are heading straight back to the eighties only worse. Watch investment flee from this country.

Of course I could be completely wrong but I can't find any evidence to support myself being wrong!!

phunkymonk

F**K sake!

Count Dooku

Indo says about up to 7 Bn

Rather than a €3bn package of cuts and taxes, the adjustment will certainly be as high as €4.5bn and could break the €6bn mark.

Based on the worst-case scenario of a €15bn hole in the finances, if the Government wants to get the deficit below 10pc next year, it would have to make an adjustment of anything up to €7bn.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/budget/news/budget-2011-double-the-pain-2384774.html

dlofnep

We're all going to get it. Nobody is coming away from this without suffering. I'm not in a position to move out of Ireland due to long-term illness, but if I was fit - I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Our entire economy has been thrown to a tar-pit as a direct result of greed. And while the greedy get away with it - those who are not responsible, both wealthy and poor will face the blunt for it.

It's all very depressing.

Permabear

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ei.sdraob

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

Heard on the radio this morning about the cuts of a billion in HSE, all of these cuts will be in essential areas since the 70% of the cost that is the wages is untouchable thanks to Croke park
next time muppets here in Galway protest about hospital closure someone please point out to them the Croke park shaped elephant in the corner. May they direct their anger where it belongs.

20Cent

dlofnep wrote: »

We're all going to get it. Nobody is coming away from this without suffering. I'm not in a position to move out of Ireland due to long-term illness, but if I was fit - I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Our entire economy has been thrown to a tar-pit as a direct result of greed. And while the greedy get away with it - those who are not responsible, both wealthy and poor will face the blunt for it.

It's all very depressing.

Anglo's Bondholders will come out pretty well, the bankers who caused the mess are living well too, people who sold Ireland short doing well. Not bad for everyone.

Permabear

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Riskymove

ei.sdraob wrote: »

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

you mean 'taxpayers' right?

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

why not?

since the 70% of the cost that is the wages is untouchable thanks to Croke park

incorrect

ei.sdraob

Riskymove wrote: »

you mean 'taxpayers' right?

a subset of taxpayers who are not on the government payroll, have no job security and have to live in a real world.

actually everyone will be paying indirectly anyways, see hospital closures

Riskymove wrote: »

why not?

good question, too diverse a group, for example why do consumers not form associations which could tell the the likes of ESB to get real?
there is a name for this occurence in economics but i can think of it right now

Riskymove wrote: »

incorrect

dont shoot the messenger! that's what the minister for health claimed on the radio, if she lied then its not a first for FF, i would be interested in seeing some real figures of course if you have them handy

donegalfella wrote: »

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well some of us here did "foresee" that interest payments will become a large drag on finances

27 billion of debt has to be paid back or rolled over in the next 3 years
oh that's gonna be fun!

that economist one frontline yesterday had a good point, but he didnt mention that a short sharp cut would also mean more money available in long term for all sorts of social schemes, money that will instead go now to servicing debt.

Amhran Nua

rumour wrote: »

We are two years into a crisis and only waking up to what should have been the reaction on day one.

Plenty of people have been screaming about this day since 2005 and earlier.

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Unlike the militant unions there is no well organised lobby representing this large section of our society.

The lobby in question was meant to be the politicians themselves.

And can everyone stop referring to the deficit in terms of the GDP; Ireland's GDP means a lot less than its GNP, which in turn doesn't matter as much as the actual tax revenues versus expenditure ratio.

Permabear

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Riskymove

ei.sdraob wrote: »

dont shoot the messenger! that's what the minister for health claimed on the radio, if she lied then its not a first for FF, i would be interested in seeing some real figures of course if you have them handy

the Croke park deal only agrees to no core pay cuts and no compulsary redundancies

overtime, allowances, shift patterns, sick leave/absenteeism, front line staff in managerial roles, no tackling of underperformance etc are all still there for the HSE if the Govt and Management would go and deal with them

in addition there is a lot of talk about a voluntary redundancy and/or early retirement schemes for the HSE

ei.sdraob

donegalfella wrote: »

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sorry those bloody exPDs :P

but yeh its hard to tell bull**** from reality anymore coming from the current government.

cleremy jarkson

donegalfella wrote: »

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This should be stickied somewhere so that anyone about to post in a thread about the dole or budget cuts knows those figures. A 15% cut would still leave it at 166.

The Recliner

Cutting TD's salary's and expenses and perks would certainly seem to be a good place to start

lead by example and all that, I wont hold my breath though

johnnyskeleton

donegalfella wrote: »

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I don't think the poor means people on social welfare anymore. Usually it means people on low incomes struggling to survive. As in, "oh sure look at poor ole johnny, workin away like a shlup trying to pay his rent, if only get gave up working he'd get everything for free plus another 196 squid for food, clothes and kicks."

Dirk Gently

I wonder would a possible "consensus" maybe be reached between leo varadkars school of thought on a quick sharp correction and FF. It would certainly separate Labour and FG at opposite ends of the cuts debate with FF sitting pretty in the middle.

Could mean some sort of FF coalition (albeit them being the smaller party) would be the only viable outcome of a general election as FG and Lab would then be too far apart to form a stable government. I can see Labour wanting to spread any increased cuts over a greater number of years where as FG seem to be trying to narrow the time frame. IMO getting under 3% within 4 years is not achievable without killing the economy all together, especially in light of even bigger savings now being required. interesting times ahead. I look forward to Lab and FG setting out their stalls very soon.

dan_d

Have to say I screamed when I saw Mary Harney's remarks on the percentage of the wage bill in the HSE.

Don't know the HSE overall bill - but it sounds to me like they want to cut a huge percentage of the health budget by looking at the minority percentage of expenses.

You don't need to be a mathematician to figure out that that's just fooking stupid.

Harney should now be calling for the Croke Park deal to be reviewed (preferably tossed altogether).She's not FF (as someone kindly pointed out!). The simple response to all the unions who are angrily shouting on the airwaves about these cuts is "here's the choice...we cut frontline services or we cut wages and the number of people working for us. You choose".

It will become abundantly clear exactly what the unions real positions are then. Put them in a position where they have to choose what you want because the other option makes them look awful - and they tend to be pretty concerned about that, given their entire argument is crap about respecting patients' needs and putting the patients first.

The whole thing is sickening, including the fact it's taken 2 years, umpteen reports, and 450,000 on the dole for this realisation to sink in.

Maj Malfunction

Fixing the HSE should be simple... Scrap it!

Let the hospitals manage themselvers, cut out the majority of the middle management fat, that should save a couple of billion and stop staff taking career breaks and using the opportunity to work as agency staff at higher cost to the taxpayer within the Irish health system that will save approx 100 million.

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

irishh_bob

Maj Malfunction wrote: »

Fixing the HSE should be simple... Scrap it!

Let the hospitals manage themselvers, cut out the majority of the middle management fat, that should save a couple of billion and stop staff taking career breaks and using the opportunity to work as agency staff at higher cost to the taxpayer within the Irish health system that will save approx 100 million.

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

only fine gael could take on the unions though not with the populist centrist kenny at the helm , labour are obviously joined at the hip with them but so are fianna fail and always have been

mrgaa1

i was listening on the radio this afternoon and the interviewer said that 70% of the HSE bill is on wages and as thats protected then the cuts have to come from the 30%. Could this be possibly true? Surely, surely at least a 15-20% paycut across the board, compulsory retirement of middle managers etc.... and leave frontline care (staff) alone and purchase generic medicines as has already been indicated would sort this out.

Apparently overtime bills, agency bills run into 2-300million alone

rumour

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Plenty of people have been screaming about this day since 2005 and earlier.

True....and I thought two years ago that it couldn't be more evident. Sadly I underestimated or was unaware of just how disconnected large parts of our society were from simple economic realities.

ParkRunner

ei.sdraob wrote: »

The private sector and the middle earners will be the ones paying for this

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

dan_d

EF wrote: »

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

Very true, however at this point in time the PS IS a massive part of this problem. And it would appear that the Croke Park agreement has not come anywhere near solving the problem. Which would suggest that there's more cuts that can be made in the PS. Which is not happening.

Which is why we are all so annoyed.

Bjorn Bored.

donegalfella wrote: »

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OMG Someone give me the smelling salts, I am actually reeling from those figures!! Look if 96euro was good enough for an unemployed jobseeker back in the heady days of 2000,it is more than enough for them now! We have to get real here,we cannot pay people these huge dole payments for doing nothing, I know there are few jobs out there right now,but it aint gonna get any better if we continue to make it easier for people not to even try by paying them so much. This has to be our first step,35 to 50% cuts in dole payments,followed by a similar amount in the public sector. No one said this was gonna be easy so lets stop pussy footin around and get started. I honestly believe that we would be a much better country and would attract large investment if we make these cuts,it will hurt for a few yrs but in the medium term it will turn our nation around.

murphaph

EF wrote: »

Every cut so far or tax increase/levy has affected public sector workers also. Unfortunately the public sector can't sort out this mess on its own. Everybody is going to have to contribute: public sector, private sector, low paid, high paid, social welfare recipients, pensioners etc..

This is a fair comment. The PS wage bill being cut will help, but will not bring us back into the black on its own. The other sacred cows of social welfare/pensions will have to shoulder their bit of it as well as taxes generally increasing for the rest of us.

ParkRunner

dan_d wrote: »

Very true, however at this point in time the PS IS a massive part of this problem. And it would appear that the Croke Park agreement has not come anywhere near solving the problem. Which would suggest that there's more cuts that can be made in the PS. Which is not happening.

Which is why we are all so annoyed.

It is a problem. How to deal with it realistically is another question. Pay has been cut and as can be seen the domestic economy is currently contracting, which isn't helping the jobs problem. Numbers employed in the public sector are falling and not being replaced. Employment contracts simply cannot be torn up and yet there has not been any voluntary redundancy programme.

Expenditure needs to fall, no question about that and expenditure on public services has fallen, is falling and will continue to fall. Without banks willing to lend to SME's and new ventures however the lack of jobs remain an even bigger problem than the public sector in my opinion. We can't fix one without the other.

mrgaa1

Maj Malfunction wrote: »

As for the Unions... declare open season on them, let them strike and break them when the war-chest runs dry.

+1 well said

SeaFields

donegalfella wrote: »

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I am not overly familiar with it but arent there two payments - JSA and JSB? One is, what the old people refer to as, drawing down stamps i.e. people who were in work and paid PRSI and are now unemployed. The other is "free dole" - another older phrase.

Do these have to be the same? For example, could they not reduce the PRSI one by the amount of deflation and drastically cut the other - the one that people didn't do a tap to get. So that people who did indeed pay PRSI for years rightly benefit from this and the scroungers who never lifted a finger get bare, bare minimum.

This is more of a query, rather than an argument for or against it, if anyone knows the answer?

_Kaiser_

Bjorn Bored. wrote: »

OMG Someone give me the smelling salts, I am actually reeling from those figures!! Look if 96euro was good enough for an unemployed jobseeker back in the heady days of 2000,it is more than enough for them now! We have to get real here,we cannot pay people these huge dole payments for doing nothing, I know there are few jobs out there right now,but it aint gonna get any better if we continue to make it easier for people not to even try by paying them so much. This has to be our first step,35 to 50% cuts in dole payments,followed by a similar amount in the public sector. No one said this was gonna be easy so lets stop pussy footin around and get started. I honestly believe that we would be a much better country and would attract large investment if we make these cuts,it will hurt for a few yrs but in the medium term it will turn our nation around.

OK, and let's say the government does exactly that and cuts 50% off the dole... how EXACTLY do you envisage the 450,000 unemployed (most made redundant in the past 2 years through no fault of their own) are going to survive??

Are you going to ensure that the ESB, Bord Gas, eircom and all the rest (several of which are in fact INCREASING prices at the minute) also drop their charges by 50% in line with these cuts? How do you plan to deal with the massive number that will have no choice to default on loans/mortgages they are just about managing to cover right now? Believe it or not, these bills and commitments don't just disappear along with your income when you're laid off.

I "love" this mentality that cutting money from those barely holding on at the moment is the answer to all our problems! Yes the welfare system needs reform to ensure that those abusing it are identified and prosecuted if necessary, but the (recently) unemployed did not cause this mess, and squeezing those who can least afford to pay is not the answer!

The blame for this crisis must be laid at the foot of a corrupt banking establishment, and a government that, be it corrupt or incompetent, decided to guarantee this same establishment at the expense of the general public.

The only way we will get out of this mess long term is not through uneven draconian cuts to the poor, but through grass-roots reform of our public, civil, legal and banking sectors.

The Croke Park agreement should be torn up and private-sector-style performance management implemented immediately to improve efficencies, TD's pay capped at €45-50k (lead by example), deadwood in the PS/CS eliminated (or redeployed and THEN eliminated if performance doesn't improve), eliminate the unnecessary layers of admin, and the tax system reformed, made easier to understand, and loopholes to avoid paying tax due closed.

Of course, because those who can lead these changes, are also those who benefit most from the current system, I won't be holding my breath for change.. but I will be leaving this country in the near future I think and never looking back!

Inquitus

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

OK, and let's say the government does exactly that and cuts 50% off the dole... how EXACTLY do you envisage the 450,000 unemployed (most made redundant in the past 2 years through no fault of their own) are going to survive??

Are you going to ensure that the ESB, Bord Gas, eircom and all the rest (several of which are in fact INCREASING prices at the minute) also drop their charges by 50% in line with these cuts? How do you plan to deal with the massive number that will have no choice to default on loans/mortgages they are just about managing to cover right now? Believe it or not, these bills and commitments don't just disappear along with your income when you're laid off.

I "love" this mentality that cutting money from those barely holding on at the moment is the answer to all our problems! Yes the welfare system needs reform to ensure that those abusing it are identified and prosecuted if necessary, but the (recently) unemployed did not cause this mess, and squeezing those who can least afford to pay is not the answer!

The blame for this crisis must be laid at the foot of a corrupt banking establishment, and a government that, be it corrupt or incompetent, decided to guarantee this same establishment at the expense of the general public.

The only way we will get out of this mess long term is not through uneven draconian cuts to the poor, but through grass-roots reform of our public, civil, legal and banking sectors.

The Croke Park agreement should be torn up and private-sector-style performance management implemented immediately to improve efficencies, TD's pay capped at €45-50k (lead by example), deadwood in the PS/CS eliminated (or redeployed and THEN eliminated if performance doesn't improve), eliminate the unnecessary layers of admin, and the tax system reformed, made easier to understand, and loopholes to avoid paying tax due closed.

Of course, because those who can lead these changes, are also those who benefit most from the current system, I won't be holding my breath for change.. but I will be leaving this country in the near future I think and never looking back!

Dole could be cut drastically without screwing the newly unemployed, some sort of calculation based on prior contributions, leaving those who have been laid off in recent times after years of work getting the 200 bills a week, and those who never worked a day in their lives scaled back to UK levels of 90 odd yoyos a week.

_Kaiser_

Inquitus wrote: »

Dole could be cut drastically without screwing the newly unemployed, some sort of calculation based on prior contributions, leaving those who have been laid off in recent times after years of work getting the 200 bills a week, and those who never worked a day in their lives scaled back to UK levels of 90 odd yoyos a week.

I don't think anyone would object to that approach, but realistically we all know that (seeing as they can't easily/quickly/effectively identify those who are abusing it now), it'll be a "one for all" cut that will hit those recently unemployed hardest and THAT'S my problem with proposed cuts.. the ability (will?) to target the approach just isn't there!

fat__tony

Inquitus wrote: »

Dole could be cut drastically without screwing the newly unemployed, some sort of calculation based on prior contributions, leaving those who have been laid off in recent times after years of work getting the 200 bills a week, and those who never worked a day in their lives scaled back to UK levels of 90 odd yoyos a week.

Exactly this. The whole welfare system is a mess.

In France they have a system whereby one is entitled to a certain % of their salary for 6 months after been made redundant, this is then reduced after this period.

whocares86

EF wrote: »

Employment contracts simply cannot be torn up
.

why cant this be done. it happened me and my fellow workers. we were called and told we were all getting 20% deducted from our wages . the only choice we had was that any one who didnt accept it was heading out the door that evening . simple as .

I say have everything on the table, Public service pay, social welfare , pensions , tax increases , everything we are spending money on .

we are spending €50bn and taking in €30bn. we need to get spending down to €35bn fast .

to increase our income i would bring corporation tax down to 11%. dont have it costed but if it brings more jobs then we are moving in the right direction

i would bring in Michael o leary and ask him how can we get 1m-2m extra tourists into this country every year. call his bluff and see if he can deliver. get rid of the €10 travel tax

dvpower

fat__tony wrote: »

Exactly this. The whole welfare system is a mess.

In France they have a system whereby one is entitled to a certain % of their salary for 6 months after been made redundant, this is then reduced after this period.

We used to have a similar system where newly unemployed people got Pay Related Benefit for a period of time. It was scrapped a long way back.

Permabear

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snickerpuss

As someone who works in a disability organisation under the HSE umbrella as frontline relief staff the fact the 1bn needs to be found is of serious concern to me.

Our budget was severely cut practically before the word recession began to be bandied about and staff levels are so low at the moment that the care we offer to these severely disabled people is seriously curtailed and beginning to obviously effecting them. As this is the whole point of our organisation, it saddens me to see these people suffer because of something they had no control over. Disability always seems to be an easy target.

While it is outrageous that over 100m was spent on agency staff covering shifts in the HSE as a whole, it must be remembered that staff out, not only on sick leave, but on holiday, education and parental leave too must be covered, because unlike a normal job there has to be a minimum number of staff to care for patients. I hope that as in-house relief staff I won't be affected, aside from yet more wage cuts (I earn less now than when I started in 2006!)

The wages in my area certainly don't seem very high, especially when it is considered how tough a job it can be at times (How often do you get punched/kicked/headbutted at work?) :P

_Kaiser_

donegalfella wrote: »

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Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the idea but I would be almost certain it will never happen.. some excuse like "not interfering in the free market" with a vague referral to the Competition Authority would no doubt be the answer received.

And never mind dropping it by 50% for a minute.. with another harsh winter expected, and an even harsher budget right in the middle of it, how about pressure being brought to bear to at least hold prices where they are (again unlikely, with the aforementioned reasoning being used)

who what when

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

How do you plan to deal with the massive number that will have no choice to default on loans/mortgages they are just about managing to cover right now? Believe it or not, these bills and commitments don't just disappear along with your income when you're laid off.

For the most part i agree with your post but one thing that always gets me is the issue of people with mortgages on the dole.

When you start the process of getting a mortgage you have to ask yourself a whole series of 'what ifs'! Stress testing i believe they call it.
Now if you discover that you will not be able to afford your mortgage repayments in the event of changed circumstances then you have to face facts, you cannot afford a mortgage!

The dole is sustain you and your families wellbeing through unemployment, it is not meant to pay mortgages!

20Cent

Here we go.

Investment in foreign securities exceeds €1.25 trillion at
end-2009.

Tax that.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/economy/current/reshold.pdf




Stolen from politics.ie

_Kaiser_

who what when wrote: »

For the most part i agree with your post but one thing that always gets me is the issue of people with mortgages on the dole.

When you start the process of getting a mortgage you have to ask yourself a whole series of 'what ifs'! Stress testing i believe they call it.
Now if you discover that you will not be able to afford your mortgage repayments in the event of changed circumstances then you have to face facts, you cannot afford a mortgage!

The dole is sustain you and your families wellbeing through unemployment, it is not meant to pay mortgages!

I'd tend to agree with you as well, and certainly people were given mortgages who really never should have been (and I personally am lucky enough that I'm not one of those people), but the reality is that there are many people out there now stuck with these mortgages.

As I've said here before, I certainly don't believe that they should have these commitments "written off", or "forgiven" (NAMA 2?), but efforts need to be made to ensure that these people have some realistic ability to repay, and the required pressure needs to be brought on the debt holders (especially as we "own" most of them now) to make this happen, so that those who make a genuine effort are given that chance.

You could also argue that the dole isn't intended to pay private landlords (many of whom charge more per month than a mortgage payment might cost on the same house), but we are where we are, and people need to live SOMEWHERE, and I don't think that further penalising these people who have found themselves in circumstances not of their own making (speaking for myself I am constantly worried about where the money for the next bill is coming from and robbing Peter to pay Paul every month) is the answer.

As others have said since, what's needed is a targeted approach - identify those (many) people who are trying their best to keep above water and work with them to stop them going under until such time as they find another job, while penalising those who have made a "career" out of benefit claiming and have no interest in doing anything else.

flutered

the ecb recon that there are not enough house reposessions in this country, it looks like there will be quite a few next year, now the question arises what do the banks do with all these houses, could it be ? that they are already in nama.

cleremy jarkson

20Cent wrote: »

Here we go.

Investment in foreign securities exceeds €1.25 trillion at
end-2009.

Tax that.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/economy/current/reshold.pdf




Stolen from politics.ie

Holy santa clause shit. Anybody know is it possible to somehow tax this??

donkey balls

donegalfella wrote: »

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Ah i was wondering when would the ESB bashing appear:rolleyes: with average wage of 70k+,The ESB as a semi state company is making money and pays the govt 800 million in dividends per annum.
They have tried to lower the cost of electricity but their hands are tied due to the energy regulater btw i dont work for the ESB but have friends that do and they are no way earning 70k +.