Will Ireland need an eu / IMF bail out within the next year?

Yes, the numbers don't add up.
The government should start considering privatising the HSE.

Well, the ECB is already taking up the slack and buying our bonds because it's getting hard to sell them on the open market at a decent rate. This is not a good sign and IMO the beginning of the end game.

This may not be the worst thing in the world though, as it will get rid of current bunch of crooks and cronies in government. And, it has to happen anyway, we ARE bunkrupt, thanks to Fianna Fail.

All signs point toward yes.

Yes and i don't think it's necessarily a bad thing (well would be for the Germans et al).

I think it will happen in the next 6 months - a lot depends on the budget in December but i expect as usual the government will be toothless and not take the necessary steps (reducing social welfare etc).

Watch this space indeed.

On a related note - does anyone else find this embarassing, from a patriotic point of view? How this is seen by the rest of the world and how the Irish will be viewed? Even though not everyone caused the problems I guess we'll all be tarred with the one brush. Quite depressing really, but i guess it could be the start of really dealing with our problems and get us on the road to recovery, however long that takes.

Zynks wrote: »

Yes, possibly before year end, IMHO

I think beginning of next year is more lightly
FF will push budget through Dail with no cuts on welfare and PS payroll bill, call IMF and resign
Then opposition will pay in full for FF mess

hinault wrote: »

I think it is shameful from a patriotic viewpoint.
But I think the economic stewardship of this country since 2003 has been even more shameful.

I'm English (sorry) and it's still a source of shame that is regularly brought up that the Labour Govt. in 1978 had to go to the IMF, even though it didn't draw any funds.

Ireland is approaching the same sort of endgame: new thinking, new rulers required and the market will force this as per Thatcher after Callaghan. Wether she was right or wrong is not the issue.

Turning to the ECB bailout would be a disaster as it imposes austerity but protects the incumbents as in Greece.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4553464.stm

Sorry about my factual error. Makes an interesting comparison of circumstances. David begg = jack jones. Inflation problems = deflation problems. Barber = ahern?

Put it this way. I can't see the head of any state agency getting a million euro a year or having the details of previous salaries 'lost'.

http://m.rte.ie/news/2010/0917/somersm.html

Unfortunately everyone else will get shafted. On a positive note ryan's stupid electricity levies and price rises won't happen

I think its inevitable, but I wouldnt put it past our rulers to struggle on for as long as theyre being lent the rope to hang the Irish taxpayer with higher and higher interest rates. Lets remember, the IMF will throw a spanner into the normal working of the Irish leadership caste. The guys with their snouts in the trough will fight tooth and nail to extract the very last bit of cash they can from the taxpayer before the IMF pull the plug on the theft.

I wouldnt dwell too much on going to the IMF as being "embarrassing". Lets remember we have got into this much trouble because we have at every turn tried to avoid embarrassment.

We wrote a blank cheque for the banks because we didnt want to be mortified by an Irish bank failure. We were sure, we could handle anything - shure werent we the richest country in the EU?

We have done major damage to ourselves and to the institution of the Irish state because we wanted to pretend to the big boys in the EU that we were able to handle the problem ourselves. We've committed stupidity after stupidity on the basis of fear of what the ECB or the bond markets might think of us. Things were hushed up and hidden, criticism was discouraged, people were told to pull on the Green Jersey for fear of embarrassing the country.

Its time to stop worrying about how things look to others, to stop worrying about others priorities and keeping up with the Jones and start prioritising what we need to get done to ensure the future economic prosperity and indeed the sovereignty of the country.

We need help - we should go to the IMF. If it mortifies the French and the Germans that a Euro member is seen going cap in hand to the IMF, so much the better. It gives us some leverage in terms of getting a better deal from them so that we dont have to go to the IMF. Lets remember that we have some power here - like it has been said of banks and debts, when you owe the bank 100 million, its the banks problem. Whether the Germans realise it or not yet, the fact their banks have massive exposure to the Irish disaster means they have more to lose from a recognition of reality than we do.

I hate the thought of the possibility, no the probability of the IMF and or EU coming to our rescue. It is no surprise though when a drunk is running the country and all the TDs looking out for their greedy selves, as many know they may never be elected again....so spin it out for as long as possible and let Biffo booze away our last chance so long as the banks and developers get our money. What a disaster and the incompetents stay on in power. We are the laughing stock of the EU and the world.

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!