Will Ireland need an eu / IMF bail out within the next year?

Slideshowbob

Well?

How do I add a poll to this thread?

Mister men

Yes. We have just delayed the inevitable over the last couple of years.

Cookie_Monster

Yes

feicim

"Government perilously close to calling in IMF, report warns"

Barclays bank seem to think so...

Barclays said: "In the coming months the Government may need to seek outside help."

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-perilously-close-to-calling-in-imf-report-warns-2341197.html

Sea Sharp

Yes, the numbers don't add up.
The government should start considering privatising the HSE.

gleep

Well, the ECB has already begun buying our debt because it's getting harder to find a buyer at reasonable rates. This was the beginning of the end, watch this space.

gleep

Well, the ECB is already taking up the slack and buying our bonds because it's getting hard to sell them on the open market at a decent rate. This is not a good sign and IMO the beginning of the end game.

This may not be the worst thing in the world though, as it will get rid of current bunch of crooks and cronies in government. And, it has to happen anyway, we ARE bunkrupt, thanks to Fianna Fail.

Zynks

Yes, possibly before year end, IMHO

Brussels Sprout

All signs point toward yes.

hinault

Yeah, we need someone to tell us what to do, so yes the IMF/EU will be in here before long.

Theboinkmaster

Yes and i don't think it's necessarily a bad thing (well would be for the Germans et al).

I think it will happen in the next 6 months - a lot depends on the budget in December but i expect as usual the government will be toothless and not take the necessary steps (reducing social welfare etc).

Watch this space indeed.

On a related note - does anyone else find this embarassing, from a patriotic point of view? How this is seen by the rest of the world and how the Irish will be viewed? Even though not everyone caused the problems I guess we'll all be tarred with the one brush. Quite depressing really, but i guess it could be the start of really dealing with our problems and get us on the road to recovery, however long that takes.

hinault

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

On a related note - does anyone else find this embarassing, from a patriotic point of view? How this is seen by the rest of the world and how the Irish will be viewed? Even though not everyone caused the problems I guess we'll all be tarred with the one brush. Quite depressing really, but i guess it could be the start of really dealing with our problems and get us on the road to recovery, however long that takes.

I think it is shameful from a patriotic viewpoint.
But I think the economic stewardship of this country since 2003 has been even more shameful.

MrDarcy

We should ask Jack O Connor and David Begg for their inputs.

flutered

we are ok until the end of the first quarter of next year, then the proverbial will really hit the fan.

Count Dooku

Zynks wrote: »

Yes, possibly before year end, IMHO

I think beginning of next year is more lightly
FF will push budget through Dail with no cuts on welfare and PS payroll bill, call IMF and resign
Then opposition will pay in full for FF mess

the_dark_side

how likely is expropriation... people's savings etc?

ashleey

hinault wrote: »

I think it is shameful from a patriotic viewpoint.
But I think the economic stewardship of this country since 2003 has been even more shameful.

I'm English (sorry) and it's still a source of shame that is regularly brought up that the Labour Govt. in 1978 had to go to the IMF, even though it didn't draw any funds.

Ireland is approaching the same sort of endgame: new thinking, new rulers required and the market will force this as per Thatcher after Callaghan. Wether she was right or wrong is not the issue.

Turning to the ECB bailout would be a disaster as it imposes austerity but protects the incumbents as in Greece.

hinault

ashleey wrote: »

I'm English (sorry) and it's still a source of shame that is regularly brought up that the Labour Govt. in 1978 had to go to the IMF, even though it didn't draw any funds.

Ireland is approaching the same sort of endgame: new thinking, new rulers required and the market will force this as per Thatcher after Callaghan. Wether she was right or wrong is not the issue.

Turning to the ECB bailout would be a disaster as it imposes austerity but protects the incumbents as in Greece.

Not to be pedantic, was it not 1976 when Labour (Denis Healy) had to call in the IMF?

I agree with your point having to call in outside agencies is the absolute last resort that any country should be required to take.

The myth of our so called Celtic Tiger has been shown up for what it was
in my view.

ashleey

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4553464.stm

Sorry about my factual error. Makes an interesting comparison of circumstances. David begg = jack jones. Inflation problems = deflation problems. Barber = ahern?

ParkRunner

I think IMF intervention is almost inevitable. A more interesting question would be what will they do when they do bail us out?

ashleey

Put it this way. I can't see the head of any state agency getting a million euro a year or having the details of previous salaries 'lost'.

http://m.rte.ie/news/2010/0917/somersm.html

Unfortunately everyone else will get shafted. On a positive note ryan's stupid electricity levies and price rises won't happen

Max Power1

Possibly in Q1 of next year.

The much needed cuts to PS costs and SW expenditure will not happen, then we will be forced to turn to the IMF.

Sand

I think its inevitable, but I wouldnt put it past our rulers to struggle on for as long as theyre being lent the rope to hang the Irish taxpayer with higher and higher interest rates. Lets remember, the IMF will throw a spanner into the normal working of the Irish leadership caste. The guys with their snouts in the trough will fight tooth and nail to extract the very last bit of cash they can from the taxpayer before the IMF pull the plug on the theft.

I wouldnt dwell too much on going to the IMF as being "embarrassing". Lets remember we have got into this much trouble because we have at every turn tried to avoid embarrassment.

We wrote a blank cheque for the banks because we didnt want to be mortified by an Irish bank failure. We were sure, we could handle anything - shure werent we the richest country in the EU?

We have done major damage to ourselves and to the institution of the Irish state because we wanted to pretend to the big boys in the EU that we were able to handle the problem ourselves. We've committed stupidity after stupidity on the basis of fear of what the ECB or the bond markets might think of us. Things were hushed up and hidden, criticism was discouraged, people were told to pull on the Green Jersey for fear of embarrassing the country.

Its time to stop worrying about how things look to others, to stop worrying about others priorities and keeping up with the Jones and start prioritising what we need to get done to ensure the future economic prosperity and indeed the sovereignty of the country.

We need help - we should go to the IMF. If it mortifies the French and the Germans that a Euro member is seen going cap in hand to the IMF, so much the better. It gives us some leverage in terms of getting a better deal from them so that we dont have to go to the IMF. Lets remember that we have some power here - like it has been said of banks and debts, when you owe the bank 100 million, its the banks problem. Whether the Germans realise it or not yet, the fact their banks have massive exposure to the Irish disaster means they have more to lose from a recognition of reality than we do.

Idbatterim

good point about Begg and O'Connor!

Justin Collery

I'm getting a feeling the next 4 months will be interesting.

For whatever reason 6% seems to be the pain point, it's the point at which over the last 12 months the ECB has jumped in. It's also the point point past which precipitated the Greek crises. If we make it through the next month, with rates at 6% and without a crises...we have the budget. It would seem to be a natural make or break.

No real reason for the bond market to fall much bewteen now and the budget, then we have the budget, followed by falling bond market, budget spin. For about 24 hours, then reality sets in and the bond market rises again until such time the crises hits. Lucky to make to it as far as xmas.

mrgaa1

MrDarcy wrote: »

We should ask Jack O Connor and David Begg for their inputs.

sure we'll only hear the same mantra - its not our fault and keep paying us ridiculous high wages

R P McMurphy

Am surprised that people constantly voice opinion that this may be good and what we need. It will be a disaster for the country. Yes there needs to be a change in leadership, direction and emphasis but why anyone thinks imf entry would be positive needs to do a little bit of research on the organisation. First thing to ask yourself is whether their involvement in any other country has been positive.

R P McMurphy

By that I mean positive for the normal people in those countries. The IMF will ensure that austerity measures are implemented so we can meet our repayments. Does it stop corruption at the top? does it hell

Mr.Micro

I hate the thought of the possibility, no the probability of the IMF and or EU coming to our rescue. It is no surprise though when a drunk is running the country and all the TDs looking out for their greedy selves, as many know they may never be elected again....so spin it out for as long as possible and let Biffo booze away our last chance so long as the banks and developers get our money. What a disaster and the incompetents stay on in power. We are the laughing stock of the EU and the world.

ashleey

R P McMurphy wrote: »

By that I mean positive for the normal people in those countries. The IMF will ensure that austerity measures are implemented so we can meet our repayments. Does it stop corruption at the top? does it hell

Most IMF type 'bailouts' are about maximizing the amount paid back to existing lenders. Unfortunately, unless you have no need for future borrowing there is no alternative.

Might be better to default first, as per Iceland and make that the line in the sand and then negotiate. Either way, current govt. spending will be slashed. Where is most govt. money spent? Salaries. Therefore, salaries get chopped. It isn't fair but that's what happens.

neaideabh

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Dob74

Yes

Time to let Anglo go to the wall.

AIB and BOI will probably have to be fully nationalised. Since we are proping them up with the gaurantee we may as well take them over.
The IMF will decide anyway.

Goodbye to 12.5% corporation tax

Dob74

MrDarcy wrote: »

We should ask Jack O Connor and David Begg for their inputs.

Do they owe the banks billions?

RealityCheck

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Haha

I suppose the Barkleys report and all the negative press from Reuters to the Financial Times has'nt influenced their opinions? No?

Are we not running the biggest deficit in Europe having suffered the worst economic collapse of any western nation in the past 60 years?

A typical FF tactic, change the topic. :rolleyes:

FactSeeker

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

People in the 18 to 23 age bracket may have a better 'gut feeling' for what's happening as they haven't been brainwashed by a working life lived in a time of constant 'growth'.

Dob74

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Better than a bunch of drucken 50 somethings

Zynks

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Don't let grey hair impress you, my friend, 'cause incompetent, drunken bastards also grow old.

I am 43, by the way

Godge

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Assume you are also in that age group.

Somewhat older myself but doesn't me I know that much more.

Early next year as another poster suggested would be the time the IMF/EC come in. If the budget doesn't deliver a reduction in interest rates on Irish debt, the numbers won't add up. Will be clear by late January whether this is the case.

kuntboy

Don't the IMF have a poor track record?

the_dark_side

I'll try again.... are there any opinions out there as to how safe Irish citizen's life savings are? Seriously, if the IMF appear, will they not take any measure necessary to ensure they recoup whats owing?

eoinbn

the_dark_side wrote: »

I'll try again.... are there any opinions out there as to how safe Irish citizen's life savings are? Seriously, if the IMF appear, will they not take any measure necessary to ensure they recoup whats owing?

There is no need to fear that. Taking money on deposit would lead to a collapse of the banks which isn't how one would help the economy- it's also plain theft!

the_dark_side

eoinbn wrote: »

There is no need to fear that. Taking money on deposit would lead to a collapse of the banks which isn't how one would help the economy- it's also plain theft!

cheers for the reply....what about An Post savings bonds, plus Credit Union?
By the way... I know that Iceland is not in the Eu etc.... but it happened there. Citizen's deposit accounts were cleaned overnight. Savings disappeared.

Sand

The IMF arent the mongols. Theyre simply people who will lend you money at a reasonable rate when nobody else will. On certain conditions, which are aimed at solving the problems that meant nobody else would lend you money at a reasonable rate.

Given those problems usually include an elite that pay themselves well and above the going rate (because theyre worth it), theyre usually hated and despised by the elite.

The IMF coming to Ireland is the worst thing that could happen to official Ireland and the best thing that could happen to the ordinary Irish person.

MrDarcy

Dob74 wrote: »

Do they owe the banks billions?

You mean apart from us borrowing 70 million a day to pay their members grossly excessive salaries???

hinault

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

You need to improve your reading skills.

I'm 44 incidentally,

Hector Mildew

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Mmm, we'll be paying for this mess long after the perpetrators have kicked the bucket. Even worse, we'll be supplementing the old gits fat pensions and payoffs when they eventually do us all a favour and resign/ retire :mad:

hinault

Sand wrote: »

The IMF arent the mongols. Theyre simply people who will lend you money at a reasonable rate when nobody else will. On certain conditions, which are aimed at solving the problems that meant nobody else would lend you money at a reasonable rate.

Given those problems usually include an elite that pay themselves well and above the going rate (because theyre worth it), theyre usually hated and despised by the elite.

The IMF coming to Ireland is the worst thing that could happen to official Ireland and the best thing that could happen to the ordinary Irish person.

I share part of your sentiment here, Sand.

Is it not the case though that the ordinary punters like you and me though also lose out when the IMF go in to countries.
(I'm thinking the Asian crisis in 1997/8 and Argentina in the early part of this decade : I'm not expert and am open to be corrected on this:))

spyderski

Yes. Within 6 months. General election before then. I would prefer the IMF running the country than any of the other current options - Enda or Eamon? Neither would be better than Brian, so whats the point? Either a national, non-party government drawn from the most talented across all parties, or else the IMF.

Zynks

I am not an expert, but I know enough to say that the IMF would not promote nor support any kind of appropriation of funds. The only case of appropriation of funds by a government that I've seen was to temporarily reduce money in circulation to combat a real threat of hyper-inflation... 80%+...per month!

However, it might be possible for the IMF to force the state to change the terms or remove deposit guarantees, and this could potentially leave savers and depositors exposed.

If done without care this scenario could be disastrous, and against the interests of the IMF - they would rather see an effective economy capable of generating taxes and repaying what is owed.

There is no simple answer, and nothing is totally safe, unfortunately, but we should all try to stay cool. The very last thing we need is widespread panic.

One good thing that the IMF might support is the removal of protection to bondholders, which could reduce the state's exposure significantly, but this is mere speculation - anybody aware of any precedents or indications?

hinault

spyderski wrote: »

Yes. Within 6 months. General election before then. I would prefer the IMF running the country than any of the other current options - Enda or Eamon? Neither would be better than Brian, so whats the point? Either a national, non-party government drawn from the most talented across all parties, or else the IMF.

This is the real issue for me.

The incumbents are useless.

But the alternatives are equally inept.

Separately.

My own theory is that we have a civil service though which run the country anyhow and it is actually unaccountable.
And this structure needs to be either swept away/radically reformed.

What other nation gives remuneration to their public servants in excess €1m?

MrDarcy

neaideabh wrote: »

It's great reading all the "expert" opinions here from users of a website that showed in a poll that the majority of users are in the 18 to 23 age bracket!

Absolute rubbish if I ever heard it! What's the average age of Sean Fitzpatrick, Patrick Neary, Micheal Fingleton, Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen, Charlie Mc Creevey?!?!?!?!?!?

Between the 7 of them they have thrashed the economy!