Banking scare threads and the truth.

Dravokivich · 08-09-2010 02:38PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Your money's in Bill's house and Fred's house.

Hey Bill, what are you doing with MY MONEY!

DeVore · 08-09-2010 02:43PM

Slydice, before they were saying "highly unlikely to happen". I used very specific language there as you can see

the phrase "too big to fail" doesnt just apply to banks.

DeV.

Mrmoe · 08-09-2010 02:44PM

Do people not see that such logic and sense are destroying our native tinfoil hat industry. Aughinish Alumina is one of the most importsnt industries here contributing millions to the economy. Imagine if we all stop wearing tinfoil hats all these jobs will go not to mention the knock on effect of losing service jobs such as tin foil hat insurance and tinfoil hat repair.:pac:

irishconvert · 08-09-2010 02:46PM

DeVore wrote: »

Up to 100K in most/all major banks is guaranteed, by the state, indefinitely..

What if the state goes bankrupt? David McWilliams seems to think it will.

Slydice · 08-09-2010 02:48PM

DeVore wrote: »

the phrase "too big to fail" doesnt just apply to banks.

I know, and I presume that is why some discussions I have been reading have been saying that the ECB is now buying Irish bonds from something called the secondary market (as in... I think that means not Ireland or the banks Ireland uses to sell it's bonds)

yet at the same time, our yield is still going up... this is what has me confused

woops, I didn't mean to go off topic for yet another time

Do you know if our savings are safe if Ireland Defaults or Not?

Gummy Panda · 08-09-2010 02:49PM

Slydice wrote: »

I know, and I presume that is why some discussions I have been reading have been saying that the ECB is now buying Irish bonds from something called the secondary market (as in... I think that means not Ireland or the banks Ireland uses to sell it's bonds)

yet at the same time, our yield is still going up... this is what has me confused

woops, I didn't mean to go off topic for yet another time

Do you know if our savings are safe if Ireland Defaults or Not?

Our yields went down as soon as people thought the ECB were buying bonds. They dropped .15

DeVore · 08-09-2010 02:50PM

Slyd, I have tried to answer that question one page back... but you are asking a hypothetical on hypothetical question. I'm also not qualified to answer it any better then to say "nah, I doubt there would be that sort of fall out".

What this thread is about (and we've drifted off topic) is that someone "social arsonists" find it amusing to start threads like as described in my first post.

All I'm doing here is pointing out that there are strong guarantees in place and there are clear facts people are wilfully ignoring in their histrionics.

DeV.

Slydice · 08-09-2010 02:57PM

I get ya. It's just fairly scarey in how it's operating.

We're relying on a guarantee from a bunch of lads who got us here in the first place.

We know the guarantee is a lie because Ireland can't afford to pay it off if the **** hits the fan

The same lines are being used now as before... highly unlikely, soft landing, turned a corner, stop talking us down and go commit suicide, highly unlike to happen etc...

when in fact

Nobody seems to have a ****ing clue what's going on or what will happen.

The last people who listened to that have seen a bunch of Irish drift into negative equity and unemployment.

I myself have (small) savings (as you might have guessed) and would like a clue this time.

R0ot · 08-09-2010 03:08PM

DeV strikes your banking hysteria posting wrecking for "lol pwnd" damage!

:pac:

MrDarcy · 08-09-2010 03:14PM

Slydice wrote: »

hasn't everything that has happened in the last 3 years been like that?

this new set of banking discussion is revolving around Ireland possibly defaulting from what I can tell.

people want to know their savings are safe and with the banking collapses... the government stepped in with the guarantee and so people knew their savings were safe

but now, it's about Ireland Inc Defaulting, so again, people care about their savings... so answering that savings and default question would at least help people feel like they know what is going on with their savings

but I'm not seeing that being answered.

The natural question to ask if someone offers you a guarantee, is: "what are you guaranteeing me with???"

OK, the state are "guaranteeing" depositors and bondholders. But with what??? With cash 300 billlion Euro of cash??? Nope. With 300 billion Euro of borrowed money??? Nope. This is what the markets are seeing, it's all very well to say, "relax it's guaranteed, we are guaranteeing all these depositors and bondholders", when the reality is that guarantee's have to be credibly backed up, or they fail to be a guarantee. It's like a homeless man going guarantor on a mortgage for you.

It really is a throwback to the Celtic Tger when we can walk around with our big swinging dicks shouting about our big guarantee, when in reality if it was ever to be called in, it wouldn't be a guarantee, it would be an embarrassing joke.

Banned Account · 08-09-2010 03:41PM

Slydice wrote: »

I get ya. It's just fairly scarey in how it's operating.

We're relying on a guarantee from a bunch of lads who got us here in the first place.

We know the guarantee is a lie because Ireland can't afford to pay it off if the **** hits the fan

The same lines are being used now as before... highly unlikely, soft landing, turned a corner, stop talking us down and go commit suicide, highly unlike to happen etc...

when in fact

Nobody seems to have a ****ing clue what's going on or what will happen.

The last people who listened to that have seen a bunch of Irish drift into negative equity and unemployment.

I myself have (small) savings (as you might have guessed) and would like a clue this time.

If all the banks fail and the Irish Government goes bankrupt and cannot cover the deposit guarantee then your money will be gone if you have not withdrawn it.

If that happens you will also be homeless, have no electricity and be starving very soon afterwards. If you are not gang raped by roving delinquent skanger gangs you will die of disease or malnutrition.

So there you have it.

Hope you're happy you pushed me to it now.

R P McMurphy · 08-09-2010 04:00PM

As I see it the difficulty down the line for Ireland could be an attack on the corporate tax rate. If we go into a Greek bailout situation, we will be expected to offer up some things in return. Austerity measures being one but more importantly for the big EU powerhouses could be their pet hate.

I don't think we would be allowed to default, not out of any love for us but the fact that european (mainly German) banks are owed billions by their rogue counterparts in Ireland. They lent recklessly to reckless banks and therefore if we default they are in big trouble as well

Blowfish · 08-09-2010 04:25PM

I'm no economist, but I don't see what the whole fuss is about the Irish deposit guarantee is. It seems pretty irrelevant considering deposits of up to 100k are guaranteed by the EU.

DeVore · 08-09-2010 04:27PM

Were guaranteed by the trillion euros Merkel has made available to governments. That was a clever move by a politician that has done more for us than any of her Irish counterparts. I said it would quell investor speculation and it did.

DeV.

bnt · 08-09-2010 04:39PM

If you want the exact details on the govt. bank guarantee scheme, get the PDF document on this page. It includes the following:

Under the Scheme, the Minister for Finance guarantees under the laws of Ireland certain types of liabilities (“covered liabilities”) of certain participating named institutions (“covered institutions”) for the period 30 September 2008 to 29 September 2010 inclusive. A list of covered institutions as at the date of these FAQs is set out under Q 11 below.
If a covered institution defaults in respect of a covered liability, the Minister of Finance will pay to the creditor, on demand, an amount equal to the unpaid covered liabilities.
...
What is a “covered liability”?
Covered liabilities are listed in the Scheme as:
(a) all retail and corporate deposits (to the extent not covered by existing deposit protection schemes in Ireland or any other jurisdiction);
...
What is a “deposit” for the purposes of the Scheme?
For the purposes of the Scheme, a deposit includes any credit balance with a covered institution that results from funds left in any account or normal banking transactions and which the credit institution is obliged to repay, and any debt evidenced by a certificate issued by a credit institution, and includes money in share accounts with building societies.
Therefore, cash deposits (fixed rate and tracker) and certificates of deposit are both covered by the guarantee.
...

The document says that the current scheme expires at the end of this month, but that's out of date: it's been extended to the end of the year. Note also:

The Minister reiterated that this announcement does not affect retail deposits of up to €100,000 as these deposits continue to be guaranteed under the ordinary Deposit Guarantee Scheme and that Scheme is not time limited.

So there's no reason for a bank run. Deposit Guarantees schemes have been set up specifically to prevent this. There was a partial bank run in Greece earlier this year: not out of fear that the banks would fail, but that Greece might be kicked out of the Eurozone, they'd go back to the Drachma, and their deposits would be decimated by inflation. So lots of Euros left Greece for Italy etc. :eek:

Blowfish · 08-09-2010 04:40PM

As a side note though, personally I'll be moving my savings away from Irish banks, guarantee or no guarantee. I'd rather give a solvent bank the use of my money rather than one which has proven to be, quite frankly, incompetent.

SeaFields · 08-09-2010 04:40PM

Matt Cooper show now is dedicated to the developments on Anglo today. He has some good analysts on at the mo - shane ross, brian lucey. Prob get a better idea on Irish banking from this show than anywhere else.**

** excluding this thread of course :cool:

dr.bollocko · 08-09-2010 05:03PM

Stickied. Lets try and combat misinformation for a changewhile.

R0ot · 08-09-2010 05:05PM

dr.bollocko wrote: »

Stickied. Lets try and combat misinformation for a changewhile.

This is not in the spirit of AH,

TO FEEDBACK! :pac:

AckwelFoley · 08-09-2010 05:26PM

Yes, this thread is not welcomed in AH.

It contravenes the bull**** and rabble rabble code of pitchforkyness

Its clear, tom must have taken a bribe from the government.

JONJO THE MISER · 08-09-2010 08:31PM

You can see for yourself on this forum that the government has told boards.ie to sticky a banking thread saying there is nothing to worry about, when in fact the guarantee on customer deposits isnt worth the paper its written on, there dont have the money to back it up.

dr.bollocko · 08-09-2010 08:51PM

You're one of those glass is half empty guys aren't you Jonjo?

POINTBREAK · 08-09-2010 09:46PM

Somebody mentioned the power of perception. In one of the newspapers a poll showed that over 70% of people think that Anglo Irish bank will be the cause of Ireland going Bankrupt.
The New York Times ran an article titled Can One Bank bring down a Country (or words to that effect) and they were talking about Ireland. Lets hope perception isn't the only test.
It has been pointed out in the last few days that a child born today will instantly owe 200k. The countries credit rating has been downgraded meaning interest on borrowing will be higher, and it is projected that the interest alone on Ireland's debt will be 10 billion a year.
Is your money safe? No one knows for sure but if its only "Highly unlikely that Ireland would default, could someone define" highly unlikely"?
Is it highly unlikely like, property losing half of its value? Oh.......... hold on that was impossible.

Gummy Panda · 08-09-2010 09:49PM

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

You can see for yourself on this forum that the government has told boards.ie to sticky a banking thread saying there is nothing to worry about, when in fact the guarantee on customer deposits isnt worth the paper its written on, there dont have the money to back it up.

Yes. Brian Cowen & Brian Lenihan sent a directive to Dev telling him to spread Government propaganda.

... or it could be to combat unfounded scare mongering spread by people like yourself.

moretothegirl · 08-09-2010 10:59PM

I have been reading through this thread and appreciate everyones info and advice.
I still have 2 questions however I hope that someone here might be able to answer.

Firstly, somebody mentioned here that it doesnt matter if Ireland is able to keep its guarantee or not because the EU has also given its guarantee? Is this true? If so whats the big deal really? If Ire does default will this not mean the EU will pay the Irish people the money??

Second thing I wanted to clarify is this, I have some (not a lot and certainly less than 100k!!) in a normal current account in BOI. Ive never bothered to open a savings account so I just want to check will this be covered with the govt guarantee or am I supposed to have my money in a savings account for it to be covered???

oppenheimer1 · 09-09-2010 01:13AM

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

You can see for yourself on this forum that the government has told boards.ie to sticky a banking thread saying there is nothing to worry about, when in fact the guarantee on customer deposits isnt worth the paper its written on, there dont have the money to back it up.

JONJO, you opened the thread yesterday purely with the intention of scaring a large number of people into withdrawing their funds from Irish banks. This was irresponsible and I'm glad to see this thread stickied in AH. Yes we do have problems in our banks and the government is running an unsustainable deficit however to suggest that there was to be a "Black Wednesday" and to stock up on canned goods leads me to believe you are an elaborate troll/social arsonist with a personality deficiency or a crank.

The power of the new media has yet to be fully realised by the establishment in Ireland and there is a real risk a bank run could be kicked off by irresponsible posting either here or on the largely unmoderated politics.ie. Much like the burning of the Koran in the USA, free speech is important but it is important to bear in mind the serious consequences such posting could have.

I know this is just internet message boards but if actions proposed here and elsewhere become reality it has real life consequences. Scaring people isn't a game and it isn't funny, even if you get a kick from it. I hope you and some of the posters on politics.ie can remember this.

JONJO, you should be ashamed of yourself.

JONJO THE MISER · 09-09-2010 02:39AM

I didnt mean to scare anyone, i was just stated the way things could go in the forseable future. When i said Black Wed i meant that the bond markets could go higher on that day. I mentioned stocking up on food because i feel people should be prepared for everything and anything that could happen when things get worse.
There are lots of people writing in newspapers and wall street analysts who see the world economy going the same way i do, just beacuse you don agree with me you have no right calling me a anarchist or any other such thing.

09-09-2010 02:43AM

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

I didnt mean to scare anyone, i was just stated the way things could go in the forseable future. When i said Black Wed i meant that the bond markets could go higher on that day. I mentioned stocking up on food because i feel people should be prepared for everything and anything that could happen when things get worse.
There are lots of people writing in newspapers and wall street analysts who see the world economy going the same way i do, just beacuse you don agree with me you have no right calling me a anarchist or any other such thing.

Stocking up on food. Do you work for a supermaket or something?

mikemac · 09-09-2010 02:43AM

"My friend in Bank of Ireland called me to state that people were queing up to withdraw their money"

It's not the exact wording, the thread is now deleted and I don't ever remember who the OP was

But this sort of thread scares people and on Ireland's largest message board it'll reach thousands of people within an hour.
Tens of thousands by the end of that working day.

This is the sort of thing that causes runs on banks.

If that OP has good info then post it but it better be something more then "my friend called to say....."

JONJO THE MISER · 09-09-2010 03:02AM

Oh i agree those threads should be taken down but in my thread i was only giving my opinion, i didnt make up Gossip nor did i tell people withdraw money, i just gave my opinion.

Banking scare threads and the truth.

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