The Double Dip

rossie1977 · 29-08-2010 11:36AM

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

see Iran block all oil shipments in the gulf, you aint seen nothing yet folks.

doubt that will happen, the usa surrounds iran on all sides

as for double dip this is a worry, if we remember back to the great depression, the first fall was hard the second (some 3 years later) after a 60% rebound from the first was complete and utter disaster

Wertz · 29-08-2010 11:51AM

Sea Sharp wrote: »

The one thing I didn't like about 'Collapse' was that he doesn't give a proper explanation as to why he thinks people lack the ability to innovate out of a sticky situation.

The cost of oil reflects the supply, this means that we won't see a sudden crash whereby one day all of a sudden the supply gets cut off. What will happen is that the cost will continue to go up and people will use oil more sparingly as a reflection of this cost. The world economy will inevitably hit (if it hasn't already) a peak in oil consumption. What will then happen is that we will be weaned off oil over a period of decades, not days as some scare mongerers seem to think.

If petrol becomes too expensive then more people will use public transport.
If central heating becomes too expensive then everyone will only use it for hot water and really cold days. If plastic becomes too expensive then paper will become more viable.

Fair points and you're right, he did leave a lot of things unsaid...but I don't think he wanted to create false hope. It also adds to the impact of the film if it's all just doom & gloom.

The amount of stuff we use oil in is frightneing, especially when you consider that plastics (the mainstay) have only been around for 80 yrs or so. Imagine life without plastic...and then look at the amount of it we throw in landfill or burn every year. Paper isn't a viable alternative to plastic in all but some packaging. There are plastic alternatives but they involve having a lot of growing land (just like biofuels) and all that land needs fertilisers (mainly oil based for now).
Look at our reliance on air travel that is solely dependent on kerosene...no jet engine without oil and no viable alternative available from bio/renewable resources currently:
http://www.bioenergywiki.net/Biokerosene
How about our continued burning of oil as a fuel, when it's so much more valuable as a source of vital chemicals.

I do agree that it's not going to be an overnight collapse, just a slow sinking into the mud, probably over the course of a few years. Your chances of riding it out will depend on your location in the world. Coal fired electricty will make a strong come back (to power electric vehicles and meet the demand of heating buildings) with all that that may entail for the global climate (not getting into that debate).
There is also going to be a mass movement of populations as people move to areas better suited to survival, conflicts and land grabs as countrys vie for dwindling resources (and water).

I'm curious as to how we get weaned off oil when we are so so bought into it as the only game in town...it's like trying to wean a plant off water...pretty soon the outter leaves go brown, start dieing and falling off as the plant seeks to protect it's roots. We'd see the same with our populations.
Our problem currently is that oil was/is in such volumes of availability that we have had the chance to simply grow and grow on the back of it...no-one's had the need to innovate or develop alternatives because of that...the blip in the 70's lit some fires under some asses, but then it all went back to being easy cheap energy again. We could be so close to the end here that it's too late to develop some of the things that need to be developed to minimise trhe impact of hyper expensive oil.
The economy being based on all of that, means that money will effectively become useless through hyper inflation as everything rises in price. You can't eat euro notes or dollar bills.

It won't be an apocalypse, just a very large restructuring of the world population density and distribution of same. We as a species will live through it, but civilisation will take a long time (if ever) to rise back to the levels of the 19th/20th centuries...
We've known that the world is over populated...this will inevitably bring things back into balance...some would say that it's not even that bad a thing (myself included)....but on a strictly humaniarian basis, it is...

29-08-2010 01:02PM

Terry wrote: »

They also have hot Russian chicks.
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/women-4384/2/

The Russian websites are prob my favourite... http://englishrussia.com/ can be brilliant.

29-08-2010 09:03PM

Wertz wrote: »

Fair points and you're right, he did leave a lot of things unsaid...but I don't think he wanted to create false hope. It also adds to the impact of the film if it's all just doom & gloom.

The amount of stuff we use oil in is frightneing, especially when you consider that plastics (the mainstay) have only been around for 80 yrs or so. Imagine life without plastic...and then look at the amount of it we throw in landfill or burn every year. Paper isn't a viable alternative to plastic in all but some packaging. There are plastic alternatives but they involve having a lot of growing land (just like biofuels) and all that land needs fertilisers (mainly oil based for now).
Look at our reliance on air travel that is solely dependent on kerosene...no jet engine without oil and no viable alternative available from bio/renewable resources currently:
http://www.bioenergywiki.net/Biokerosene
How about our continued burning of oil as a fuel, when it's so much more valuable as a source of vital chemicals.

I do agree that it's not going to be an overnight collapse, just a slow sinking into the mud, probably over the course of a few years. Your chances of riding it out will depend on your location in the world. Coal fired electricty will make a strong come back (to power electric vehicles and meet the demand of heating buildings) with all that that may entail for the global climate (not getting into that debate).
There is also going to be a mass movement of populations as people move to areas better suited to survival, conflicts and land grabs as countrys vie for dwindling resources (and water).

I'm curious as to how we get weaned off oil when we are so so bought into it as the only game in town...it's like trying to wean a plant off water...pretty soon the outter leaves go brown, start dieing and falling off as the plant seeks to protect it's roots. We'd see the same with our populations.
Our problem currently is that oil was/is in such volumes of availability that we have had the chance to simply grow and grow on the back of it...no-one's had the need to innovate or develop alternatives because of that...the blip in the 70's lit some fires under some asses, but then it all went back to being easy cheap energy again. We could be so close to the end here that it's too late to develop some of the things that need to be developed to minimise trhe impact of hyper expensive oil.
The economy being based on all of that, means that money will effectively become useless through hyper inflation as everything rises in price. You can't eat euro notes or dollar bills.

It won't be an apocalypse, just a very large restructuring of the world population density and distribution of same. We as a species will live through it, but civilisation will take a long time (if ever) to rise back to the levels of the 19th/20th centuries...
We've known that the world is over populated...this will inevitably bring things back into balance...some would say that it's not even that bad a thing (myself included)....but on a strictly humaniarian basis, it is...

Agree with everything you said there, there is a "dash for gas" in some countries at the moment. In the UK they are now dependant on Russia for a large percentage of their gas, most oil fired power stations have been shut or converted to gas. Ireland will be hit harder as we are more oil dependant than most EU countries so the shrinkage will be more noticable.

The only good thing about the (likely)hyperinflation is it will quickly eliminate the millstone of debt that many have, unfortunately it will also wipe out savings that are not in precious metals.

After that, hopefully the FIAT money will be replaced by something that will work in the new economic climate. i.e. does not rely on indefinite growth to function.

Amhran Nua · 29-08-2010 10:10PM

Oil running out is not going to destroy civilisation as we know it. The only thing that will happen is other methods of power production will become more viable economically, they pretty much are already. Look at the European supergrid for example, a proposal to supply almost all of Europe's power requirements from renewable sources, perfectly doable and in fact economical. So much so thats its going right ahead, along with DESERTEC. We are literally swimming in energy.

The more immediate problem is the real double dip which many people have predicted, I'll summarise it here.

Governments and banks have been pretending that speculation is investment, borrowing is income, and money-multiplication through circular lending is economic growth, at the low interest rates of secure loans backed by assets, not at the far more serious rate of speculation.

Obviously that particular emporer had no clothes, so for the last couple of years governments around the world have been replacing actual income with savings or more borrowings, and calling it stimulus packages. The acid test of whether or not global industry can stand on its own two feet is yet to come, as borrowings start to become prohibitive (look at the spreads on Irish bonds these days) and savings run out.

We should be finding out very shortly whether or not the gamble worked. It didn't really the last time, and I wouldn't give it good odds today either.

29-08-2010 10:39PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Oil running out is not going to destroy civilisation as we know it. The only thing that will happen is other methods of power production will become more viable economically, they pretty much are already. Look at the European supergrid for example, a proposal to supply almost all of Europe's power requirements from renewable sources, perfectly doable and in fact economical. So much so thats its going right ahead, along with DESERTEC. We are literally swimming in energy.
.

The supergrid would be good for shifting surplus electricity around Europe, it will not (unless massively enhanced) carry significant (20%+) amounts of power that a country requires.
It's simply impossible to build sufficient renewable energy sources to completely replace oil (and other fossil fuels), the only way to go without causing a long slow death is to reengineer society to operate in a reduced fuel environment. Building houses, shops & places of work close together, rather than separate as is the case now, thus eliminating the need for transport.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The more immediate problem is the real double dip which many people have predicted, I'll summarise it here.

Governments and banks have been pretending that speculation is investment, borrowing is income, and money-multiplication through circular lending is economic growth, at the low interest rates of secure loans backed by assets, not at the far more serious rate of speculation.

Obviously that particular emporer had no clothes, so for the last couple of years governments around the world have been replacing actual income with savings or more borrowings, and calling it stimulus packages. The acid test of whether or not global industry can stand on its own two feet is yet to come, as borrowings start to become prohibitive (look at the spreads on Irish bonds these days) and savings run out.

We should be finding out very shortly whether or not the gamble worked. It didn't really the last time, and I wouldn't give it good odds today either.

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Amhran Nua · 29-08-2010 11:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The supergrid would be good for shifting surplus electricity around Europe, it will not (unless massively enhanced) carry significant (20%+) amounts of power that a country requires.
It's simply impossible to build sufficient renewable energy sources to completely replace oil (and other fossil fuels), the only way to go without causing a long slow death is to reengineer society to operate in a reduced fuel environment.

The European supergrid is meant to supply over 90% of European power requirements. Graham Brennan of SEI has said that Ireland could supply most of its energy needs from readily available wind sites, and thats before we start looking at our offshore resources. Around 1% of the sunlight falling on the Sahara could meet all of Europe's energy needs. 20% is only the 2020 target for Europe, do you think it will stop there?

There seems to be a massive push against renewables from certain quarters these days, no need to think too hard about where that's coming from I guess. And yet it moves, at the end of the day.

Deleted User wrote: »

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Estimates are that around a third of the Chinese competitive advantage comes from currency manipulation, a bit like the Japanese before MITI had its teeth pulled. After a certain point they will be forced to compete on a level playing field, and there is already significant union action starting to form there, so that should even out the pay disparity somewhat.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise. My recommendation would be green energy technology, for obvious reasons.

29-08-2010 11:50PM

Deleted User wrote: »

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Disagree with this completely..

30-08-2010 12:16AM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The European supergrid is meant to supply over 90% of European power requirements. Graham Brennan of SEI has said that Ireland could supply most of its energy needs from readily available wind sites, and thats before we start looking at our offshore resources. Around 1% of the sunlight falling on the Sahara could meet all of Europe's energy needs. 20% is only the 2020 target for Europe, do you think it will stop there?.

The biggest issue with renewables is storage!* When that problem is solved then it's a go. The variability of wind and solar power limits the usefulness of renewables and requires that a large baseload is maintained by conventional means. Do you really think it's possible to build an interconnector to carry power from the Sahara into central Europe, it would be a fantastic feat of engineering if it was ever built.

*If a simple and relativly cheap battery system could be developed for consumers to store a few days worth of electricity, then it would allow generators to "smooth" out their baseload. Consumers would charge them up on windy days and draw power from the batteries on calm days, all done in the background (the consumer does nothing to them).

Renewables will not replace all the fissil fuel that is currently consumed, consumption must be reduced.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

There seems to be a massive push against renewables from certain quarters these days, no need to think too hard about where that's coming from I guess. And yet it moves, at the end of the day..

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Estimates are that around a third of the Chinese competitive advantage comes from currency manipulation, a bit like the Japanese before MITI had its teeth pulled. After a certain point they will be forced to compete on a level playing field, and there is already significant union action starting to form there, so that should even out the pay disparity somewhat.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise. My recommendation would be green energy technology, for obvious reasons.

+1 When the Chinese have developed their own internal market, they'll drop the western "tat" anyway, we just need to maintain and enhance our manufacturing industries.

30-08-2010 12:18AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Disagree with this completely..

The day may come when the only source of "stuff" is Chinese and the price is too high for us to buy and we have to do without as we abandoned our manufacturing base.

sdanseo · 30-08-2010 02:13AM

Hang on a second, a Double Dip is a tasty, rare treat of a confection from my childhood. Now you want me to associate nice things like that with a recession?

You thoughtless bástard! :P

30-08-2010 09:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The day may come when the only source of "stuff" is Chinese and the price is too high for us to buy and we have to do without as we abandoned our manufacturing base.

If the price of chinese/japanese/taiwanese goods ever becomes more expensive than what it would cost to produce it ourselves with no economies of scale, we are well and truely fuked and there wouldn't be anyone left in the country.
1.3 billion farmers in China would in theory be richer than each of us.

Amhran Nua · 30-08-2010 10:14AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The biggest issue with renewables is storage!*

Please read up on the European supergrid concept.

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you really think it's possible to build an interconnector to carry power from the Sahara into central Europe, it would be a fantastic feat of engineering if it was ever built.

Its already getting started. Its certainly no more impressive a feat than a trans-Siberian oil pipeline for example, probably a lot less so.

Deleted User wrote: »

Renewables will not replace all the fissil fuel that is currently consumed, consumption must be reduced.

Yes they will, and a great deal more besides.

Deleted User wrote: »

If the price of chinese/japanese/taiwanese goods ever becomes more expensive than what it would cost to produce it ourselves with no economies of scale, we are well and truely fuked and there wouldn't be anyone left in the country.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise.

30-08-2010 11:16AM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise.

Yea it's what we've been good at now for a while now but I think the education system is now holding us back unfortunately.. The leaving kills any ambition to do science in most people.

Amhran Nua · 30-08-2010 11:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yea it's what we've been good at now for a while now but I think the education system is now holding us back unfortunately.. The leaving kills any ambition to do science in most people.

We have to make a start on it sooner or later, I don't think running hotels and selling houses to each other is a viable long term plan for the economy. The education system has been let slip badly over recent years, but it shouldn't be too hard to rectify.

fakearms123 · 30-08-2010 02:18PM

Okay I'm here, I brought my bag of Doritos crisps, where's this Double Dip I was promised??

30-08-2010 03:21PM

fakearms123 wrote: »

Okay I'm here, I brought my bag of Doritos crisps, where's this Double Dip I was promised??

That's what your ould one said last night.

Wertz · 02-09-2010 06:45AM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Its already getting started. Its certainly no more impressive a feat than a trans-Siberian oil pipeline for example, probably a lot less so.

Laying a prefab pipeline with some pumping stations along it's length is relatively simple compared to running high voltage supply cables and the transformers and other grid infrastructure necessary to maintain the flow of current from N Africa.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Yes they will, and a great deal more besides.

I used to think like this years ago....the realism behind the hype the like of SEI and Eammon Ryan reel off is that sustainables are unsustainable (due to levels of demand) and require so much investment and time that they'll barely be viable by the time the price of oil heads north. That's before we even talk about other petrochemicals we need to repalce...oil isn't just about energy.
Nuclear is never going to be the panacea the new greens think it's going to be either....coal is where it's at.
Solar/wind/tidal is fine in the way that bio ethanol and biodiesel is fine...when there is fossil oil to underpin them...on their own, without the reliability of oil to fall back on they become patchy as an energy supply, never mind the practicality of growing enough fuel on agri land to keep the planet happy...
We need a serious readjustment in our demand on energy and that simply won't happen without a huge rise in prices and/or a major shortage in oil supply...

I agree with your point on the double dip though and government borrowing dressed up as GDP...alll of that system too is based on oil and the future profits of companies who trade on the basis of oil and it's multitude of derivative products...

Amhran Nua · 02-09-2010 09:05AM

Wertz wrote: »

Laying a prefab pipeline with some pumping stations along it's length is relatively simple compared to running high voltage supply cables and the transformers and other grid infrastructure necessary to maintain the flow of current from N Africa.

HVDC, single line cable direct from there to here. They already have a few of them stretching across the North Sea and the channel, Dutch wind farms store their energy in Norwegian lakes.

Wertz wrote: »

I used to think like this years ago....the realism behind the hype the like of SEI and Eammon Ryan reel off is that sustainables are unsustainable (due to levels of demand) and require so much investment and time that they'll barely be viable by the time the price of oil heads north.

There is a common misconception that a lot of otherwise well informed people hold about renewables, in particular wind, based on small scale infrastructure which is all we have now, aided and abetted by a heavy duty barrage of shall we say somewhat biased commentary and wild eyed lunatics the likes of Richard Tol, who has been styling himself as an "environmental economist". Small scale stuff is about as efficient as putting a gas turbine in the attic of a scattering of houses around the country and trying to generate energy that way. And yet even with that renewables still provide a decent percentage of Irish energy right now.

Once you get into the larger scale it becomes a much more economical matter. And I mean really, on a large scale, is it going to be more economical to explore, find, drill, extract, process, pipe, ship, transport and burn fuel from deep underground, or just pull that energy from thin air? Especially with China weighing in on the turbine market soon, install prices are going to plummet.

Subsidies for coal and fossil fuel industries dwarf those for renewables, one complaint that is often heard in renewables circles is they'd be delighted to have all subsidies cancelled as long as fossil fuel also gets theirs cancelled. Governments won't do that with the amount of jobs involved in this extremely labour intensive industry though.

We're well on top of the substitutes for oil in other areas as well, so no worries on that front.

Wertz · 02-09-2010 09:56AM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

We're well on top of the substitutes for oil in other areas as well, so no worries on that front.

Good stuff on the renewable energies. I still strongly disagree on your last point, but I'm not spending the morning arguing about it.
Plastics (hundreds of types), airline fuel and heavy marine fuel oil are a problem to substitute currently. All are vital to the world economy, especially those involved in transport of people or resources...wihtout them or with a huge jump in their prices, the global economy just can't function in the way we've become dependant on...

Anyway this is veering off topic (my fault). Double dip in Ireland is looking very likely after yesterdays new live register figures and the reports of mortage defaulters on the rise just this morning.

02-09-2010 10:36AM

sensible side says ....we don't seem to know what is really going on... i do thing we are on the cusp of some big changes in the world but nobody and i mean nobody seem to be able to understand what they are.

Example on the one side you have the argument that we have reached peak oil and that renewable sources of energy will never fill the vacuum which will inevitability lead to a fight for dwindling resonance and then some sort of Armageddon.

V

We are at the dawn of a new age of renewable resonance and new technologies which will mean that while things wont be quite the same we will still be grand.

One small but relevant point the population of the world is falling not increasing.

02-09-2010 10:41AM

on the other had double dip always put me in mind of a biscuit that had chocolate on both sides

Amhran Nua · 02-09-2010 11:21AM

Wertz wrote: »

Plastics (hundreds of types), airline fuel and heavy marine fuel oil are a problem to substitute currently. All are vital to the world economy, especially those involved in transport of people or resources...wihtout them or with a huge jump in their prices, the global economy just can't function in the way we've become dependant on...

Well to wrap it up lets just say that at a minimum, putting electric or short run electric cars on the road should take most of the pressure off existing supplies until we get the other plastic and diesel producing technologies (which are already operating) scaled up to an industrial level.

Mr Benevolent · 02-09-2010 11:39AM

What the hell have wind turbines got to do with porn?

bnt · 02-09-2010 01:09PM

There's a good summary of the Irish situation here:

Under the current program, we estimate each Irish family of four will be liable for 200,000 euros in public debt by 2015. There are only 73,000 children born into the country each year, and these children will be paying off debts for decades to come – as well as needing to accept much greater austerity than has already been implemented. There is no doubt that social welfare systems, health care and education spending will decline sharply.
Watch for renewed emigration from a famously footloose population. If current policies continue, the calamity of the Irish banking system will lead to a much deeper recession and the consequences will be felt for decades.

The Double Dip

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