Boards Betting Brains Trust

3:30 Brighton - Ethics Girl - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Very interested in this one and I think she has an excellent chance of gaining her first win since this time last year, just 5lbs above that mark but she has been improving but rarely gets luck in running, partly due to some of the jockeys she has had on board. That shouldn't happen now that George Baker is up today. She has only had three runs since coming back after a 6 month break and has run respectably on all three occasions, it took her three runs before she won last season and also the likely quick ground at Brighton tomorrow will be ideal for her. Her GF form reads; 1-2-2 and with George Baker on board I feel she could be adding another '1' to that form if the ground stays the same.

Her trainer, John Berry, has been firing in the winners of late and his yard is in obviously fine fettle after 4 winners from 15 sent out over the last month, this is the only horse he sends out today and it's to a track he rarely visits so I assume he feels the track will suit her style. George Baker doesn't often ride for this trainer, he has had 15 rides for him in the past 5 years and it's interesting that Baker is travelling to Brighton for only two rides at a course where he is also 4 wins from 15 rides this year. He has a 10% strike rate whenever he visits the course and rides it well. Ethics Girl only managed 5th last time out over 10 furlongs and was staying on well near the finish, she's upped to 12f now and that could be just what she needs along with the quick ground.

Her form over 12f+ is 2-3-3 and one of those seconds was last year on quick ground over this distance at Epsom where she stayed on better than most but just couldn't reach the winner despite closing with every stride, Epsom is probably the most similar track to Brighton and I'm interested in that form. She's also down in grade here and looks on a grand mark and carrying only 2lbs more than she did in a higher grade last time out, she was also hampered at the start in that race and was under pressure after that. There are two front runners in this race who may end up setting up the race for her, Aestival will more than likely try and make the running and although he rattled up an 8 day hat-trick I feel he could be vulnerable to horses closing in on him during the run in up the steep hill, at this stage I reckon Ethics Girl's stamina will be kicking in and she could prove to have too much for the Prescott horse and hopefully take all the beating from there. This looks an ideal opportunity for the John Berry trained filly to get off the mark this season and she has everything going for her and is overpriced at 7/1. I'd have her closer to half that or possibly 4/1. She's worth a small each way bet at tasty odds which I don't think will be there come race time.

4:00 Brighton (4) 5f 213yds

Piazza San Pietro - Career high mark, top weight and not the best drawn. He has raced 8 times in the last two months and is probably due a break! Got beat in a lower grade off a mark 10lbs lower and this is much tougher, also beaten on two other occasions in weaker races. 10/3 at the moment and definitely opposable here, I'll more than likely lay it. Rating - 2/5

Hand Painted - Two time C&D winner off marks of 65 and 70, both races were in the space of two weeks, this will be the first time Travis Block doesn't ride him and instead Seb Sanders comes to a course he has an excellent 19% strike rate and when he rides for PJ Makin he's 5 from 25 at Brighton. Still lightly race with only 13 career starts and he's a 4 year old. Won off this mark this time last year at Folkstone and should strip fitter for his two starts this season in which he wasn't beaten far. Given a month off the track and should be fit and raring to go. 5/1 at the moment and one for the shortlist. Rating : 4/5

Billy Red - Won over 5f here two days ago when making all under Fergus Sweeney, that was in a weaker race than this and carrying a 6lb penalty, upped in grade and over 1f extra would lead me to avoid him. Jim Crowley isn't in great form of late and the trainer has had him as his only winner in his last 50 odd runners. It would take a career best performance on turf to win this and I feel he's definitely opposable at odds of 15/2. I doubt he'll figure unless there's some divine inspiration and he'll not get an easy lead. Rating : 1/5

Highland Harvest - Two time course winner, one time C&D winner. Dropped in grade and his win here came from a mark 2lbs higher. Although it was in a weaker grade carrying more weight. He has raced here 6 times with form reading : (1-2-0-2-2-1) including a place in a tougher race off a mark 6lbs higher of 73. That was on softer ground but he likes it quick also, as he'll get tomorrow. Stevie Donehoe takes the ride and he has been on board 3 times, winning once and second on both other occasions. He also rides the track well and has won on 3 of his last 6 rides here, with the other 3 coming second. He comes here for two rides tomorrow and this is his best chance. The trainer isn't in great form but this is the only one he sends out tomorrow to a track he rarely visits. 8/1 at the moment which is massive based on his course form and ability, should be half that. Rating : 5/5

Dvinsky - Won last time out on the AW, far better on that surface than the turf, 1lb above last winning turf mark (Grade6) but before that he hadn't won on turf for 4 years. Never won at this course despite 6 runs here although he came 2nd twice albeit back when he was a 4 year old, 9 years old now and likely to find at least one too good. The jockey hasn't rode a winner here for a long time and I don't see that changing. Currently second favourite and at 7/2 I wouldn't want to get involved with him. Certainly opposable. Rating : 2/5

Musical Script - Raced here on Wednesday in a hot race, stayed on late to grab 3rd, that was over a mile and he's interestingly dropped back to 6f now. He's another that's better on the All-Weather than he is on turf and has only ever won once on turf from 30 attempts, although that was at this course but from a 3lb lower mark. It might be a bit much to expect him to run two good races in 2 days and he only won once over 6f, 4 years ago on the AW. Will get a good gallop to suit and could come on late to grab 3rd but with only 2 places paid he's opposable but at 8/1 he's a better betting proposition that some of the shorties. Rating : 3/5

Starwatch - Made all to win at Epsom last time out in a similar contest when the 20/1 outsider of 6. Won quite handily when causing that shock, showed little in many races before that and despite weight allowances for being a 3 year old I don't fancy him to win again. Raced here twice before coming 2nd of 5 and 4th of 5 from 7&4lb lower marks, on a career high turf mark now on very quick ground that I'm not sure suits him and on a tough track. Currently 7/2 and has a poor enough, albeit, in form jockey on board. Certainly opposable and no value at that price and I think he'll end up setting it up for my eventual selection. He'll face a battle with Musical Script for 3rd place. Rating : 3/5

Conclusion:

My ratings suggest the 8/1 outsider is the likely winner of this race and I think he'll give it a damn good go so I'm having a large enough win bet on him to continue his impressive course form on a course that they say previous form is vital. He'll be fit and ready to give a bold showing and I think he's severely good value at 8/1. I think he's more likely a 4/1 shot and could go off a lot shorter tomorrow.

1st : Highland Harvest 2nd : Hand Painted 3rd : Musical Script

4:00 Brighton - Highland Harvest - 3pts