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Boards Betting Brains Trust

135

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭Gdep


    Knew i should have left it alone today...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    greetings wrote: »
    Christmas Carnival 7.55 Haydock 3/1
    Finally got off the mark in a better handicap at Notingham 3 weeks ago over this distance.
    The stable is in absolutely tremendous form and only upped 4 pounds for its last win and looks a reasonable opportunity to add to its last win.The danger looks like Miss Antonia or Tamarillo Grove.

    Winner winner chicken dinner at 7/2


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Win 1
    Placed 1 (my first not to loose money!)
    Unplaced 3

    Rios Girl - 8:40 Ayr

    Made her handicap debut at Musselburgh over todays distance 9 days ago with a win at long odds for which she is up only 2 lbs on her initial rating of 45. She might have won a bit sooner but second run at Catterick went wrong with the jockey riding without an iron from the start. Third race was a class higher (5) so maybe the handicap win was not as such a surprise as the 33/1 suggested. Rios Girl beat the 64 rated Mandarin Spirit by a neck. Tonight Rios Girl remains the lowest weight with a Jim Goldie horse Classlin possibly well handicaped at a pound higher in stall 1 Rio Girl drawn in 7 A quick look at Adrian Masseys guide suggests the mid-higher draw is the best place to be. The others near the head of the market are carrying a stone more. Curently 9/2


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭deewhy


    Where do you turn today - one competitive handicap after another. I will continue to look for e/w propositions in hope that the recent run of placed efforts will finally land a winner at a price. I don't normally look for the sure thing at a short price and will avoid as long as possible.

    2 selections today: both currently priced 11/2

    7.00 Kilbeggan - ah ya boy ya 2 pts e/w

    I tipped this fellow for Galway and for a while he looked like he was going to win only to be found out by the hill. He was well supported on the day and has only been given a one pound rise in the weights. Crucially he is a course and distance winner proving his likeness for tight tracks. There is plenty of competition which ensure a decent price is available.

    Haydock 4.35 valery borzov 1 pt e/w

    Well supported last time in a competitive handicap he quickly faded on ground not to his liking. All form is on ground with soft mentioned and he has dropped to a very attractive weight with a good claimer taking off 5 pounds to make this ex OBrien in mate an appealing proposition. The negative for me is the draw with high numbers generally favoured in the sprints.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    I'm pretty ill today so I'm going through the form on many races. This is one that caught my eye.

    Newmarket 2.35

    Khor Sheed 2pts @ 5/2 PP, Bet365

    Dubawi colt has reasonable form on an easy surface but many of these are totally unknown on rain softened ground. He'll have the advantage of an extra run on his most fancied rivals and Fallon taking the ride will know the horse. The step up to 7f will bring further improvement from him and these colours are carried by a couple of smart horses in the Cumani yard - Mabait and Afsare. Winner of a listed race at the track, she has the best form in the book and will give a good run for my money.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭Gdep


    deewhy beat me to it with the selection for the 7 o clock at Kilbeggan.

    19.00 Kilbeggan - Blaze Trailer

    We are all going to ignore his last ride....down 11lbs in the ratings because of it and i think most people are writing him off. A good hold up horse and i think if Paul gets it right today he could sneak this one.

    8/1 available

    18.30 Kilbeggan - Farmaland

    3rd in a strong Mallow Hurdle field last time out over this distance. Has never won over the distance but has won over 2m6f and looks like he can take the trip. Andrew Mac back on board today.

    10/1 available


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    4:35 Haydock - Fullandby

    His last race looked like a return to some form after previous very poor runs. The softer going and his current mark should give him an excellent chance considering he won and ran well of higher marks last year, once there was some cut in the going. Currently 14/1

    Liking this more and more..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Thats seven horses named. More than enough I'd say. Just realised two races have two picks. hate that!

    AYR 8:40 HANDICAP 5f
    Rios Girl @ 4.50 (GP) win

    KILBEGGAN 7:00 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f
    Ah Ya Boy Ya @ 5.50 (GP) placed

    KILBEGGAN 6:30 HURDLE (5YO+) 3m
    Farmaland @ 9.00 (GP) unplaced

    HAYDOCK 4:35 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y
    Valery Borzov @ 5.00 (GP) unplaced

    NEWMARKET 2:35 GROUP 3 7f
    Khor Sheed @ 3.50 (GP) placed

    Other Picks -
    4:35 Haydock - Fullandby placed
    19.00 Kilbeggan - Blaze Trailer unplaced


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭deewhy


    Nothing from XPyro - must be trying to recover from an unusual failed tip yesterday:pac:


  • Moderators Posts: 8,883 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Lucky I didn't put it up as all of them were shocking! I need a break.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭Gdep


    15.35 Downpatrick - Nivek's Dream

    Tough decision in this one but i think ill have to oppose City Hustler. His win 3 days ago has put him 6lbs up and i think this combined with the longer trip will be the undoing of him.

    Nivek's Dream is dropping back in trip today and is on a course which seems to suit him.Travelled well the last day but faded towards the end but the shorter trip today should allow a strong finish. he won a maiden here at this distance before and Andrew Thorton claiming 3lbs should help the fact he is carrying 11-11. Should have enough to win in this tough handicap.

    Forecast 15/2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Curragh 5.15

    Invincible Ash 3pts @ 6/1 PP

    The going is currently Good at the Curragh but a dry night and warm temperatures tomorrow ought to dry the ground out plenty by the time the 5.15 gets underway. CD winner Invincible Ash is the standout when it comes to a faster going. She won the 50k National Lottery Sweepstakes Race on Derby day and hasn't looked back. When a mare like this gets on a role theres no telling where she'll stop. Gary Carroll has had a wonderful time of it with this mare partenering her on all her turf wins to date. Many of the other runners have questions to answer such as ground and trip but there are no such worries for Invincible Ash should the ground dry out as is expected. I still haven't done a 5 pointer but this is a pretty confident selection given the generous price for a mare on a roll.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Scamperdale 3:50 Leicester

    A model of consistancy with a double C&D last twice at this track, 4lbs higher than last win. Paired with usual pilot Tom Queally on the better side of the draw, going good to firm which will suit as well. Spensley with Kieran Fallon on board will no doubt be popuar with a C&D win last October but that run aside has shown little, only second outing of the summer, 7th of 8 LTO so could come on for for that but previous history suggests not one to have much faith in. Hels Angel is arguably more of a threat both on form and speed rating,Brian McHugh takes off three and at 13/2 looks well priced but I'll trust that Scamperdale will run to format at 9/2


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭deewhy


    Curragh 16.45: Dundrum Dancer current price 6/1

    Coming off the back of a good run at Galway finishing with a late run from a poor draw to finish 3rd. Running off the same mark here on only his 7th career start, he just might be racing off a weight with a few pounds in hand. Coming from a good yard with an excellent jockey on board, I expect this one to buck my trend of recent 3rds. FYI I am going to f/cast this with Elletelle which I think will also run well at a good price.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭deewhy


    Nulty wrote: »
    Curragh 5.15

    Invincible Ash 3pts @ 6/1 PP

    The going is currently Good at the Curragh but a dry night and warm temperatures tomorrow ought to dry the ground out plenty by the time the 5.15 gets underway. CD winner Invincible Ash is the standout when it comes to a faster going. She won the 50k National Lottery Sweepstakes Race on Derby day and hasn't looked back. When a mare like this gets on a role theres no telling where she'll stop. Gary Carroll has had a wonderful time of it with this mare partenering her on all her turf wins to date. Many of the other runners have questions to answer such as ground and trip but there are no such worries for Invincible Ash should the ground dry out as is expected. I still haven't done a 5 pointer but this is a pretty confident selection given the generous price for a mare on a roll.


    Non Runner


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    deewhy wrote: »
    Curragh 16.45: Dundrum Dancer current price 6/1

    17.45


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I know it's a bit late,but if anyone still hasn't done a bet,my selection would be
    King's Masque 3.50 Leicester 13/2
    A very consistent horse and has been running in some hot handicaps of late. It's dropping back a furlong in trip but I wouldn't be too worried about that.Jimmy Fortune on board,one of the best jockeys around.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    :mad:

    ah nevermind, its going up against my pick so I wouldn't have selected it anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Sorry Mike,didn't even look at the picks before I placed it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    greetings wrote: »
    I know it's a bit late,but if anyone still hasn't done a bet,my selection would be
    King's Masque 3.50 Leicester 13/2
    A very consistent horse and has been running in some hot handicaps of late. It's dropping back a furlong in trip but I wouldn't be too worried about that.Jimmy Fortune on board,one of the best jockeys around.

    2/2 from two on this thread :D Won it on the line.Just saw the price,it was 7/2 :eek: Very well backed.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,985 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    greetings wrote: »
    2/2 from two on this thread :D Won it on the line.Just saw the price,it was 7/2 :eek: Very well backed.

    Actually had him myself, some finish. I had him at 6/1 about 20 mins before the race, SP was 7/2 favourite.:eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭colly54


    Just have a look through all the cards, nothing really stands out except

    Gortnacoille @ 8.20 in Sligo. Muck form but B J Geraghty is riding him so imo stands a decent chance.

    Could be anywhere up to 50/1 so a decent e/w bet.

    when's this??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,985 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    colly54 wrote: »
    when's this??

    2 days ago, came 7th outta 16, didn't have anything left in the tank to put in a challenge to get placed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭deewhy


    deewhy wrote: »
    Curragh 16.45: Dundrum Dancer current price 6/1

    Coming off the back of a good run at Galway finishing with a late run from a poor draw to finish 3rd. Running off the same mark here on only his 7th career start, he just might be racing off a weight with a few pounds in hand. Coming from a good yard with an excellent jockey on board, I expect this one to buck my trend of recent 3rds. FYI I am going to f/cast this with Elletelle which I think will also run well at a good price.

    that was frustrating - missed the bloody break! Had a saver on Tellelle (sorry about typo above). Reckon exacta bet would not have been far away.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    greetings wrote: »
    2/2 from two on this thread :D Won it on the line.Just saw the price,it was 7/2 :eek: Very well backed.

    Well done Greetings. Top stuff!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Thanks Nulty,pity I wasn't able to do it during my log. Maybe my luck's starting to change :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Actually had him myself, some finish. I had him at 6/1 about 20 mins before the race, SP was 7/2 favourite.:eek:

    :rolleyes: ;) (I'm just sore about my pick not even placing :( )


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Veloso - 3:00 Southwell Class 5

    Twice C&D at Southwell, ran creditably in a Class 4 at Chester LTO after a 2 months off. Tops speed ratings for this field at this track, well drawn. Jockey Dale Swift takes off 5 so running at 81 which is also its last winning mark, over C&D. Clearly the threat is from Mark Prescotts a/w specialist Speed Dating and the price duly reflects that. I'd sooner be with 6/1 than 5/2. Other horses at the top of the market Proud Times and Nave are making their Southwell debuts so hard to know if they'll take to it or not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Mike I swear I was just about to put up Proud Times in the same race


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    :pac: we appear to be attracted to the same impossible handicaps!


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