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thedini · 12-05-2010 04:58PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Thanks IT. I am glad you got it sorted out because I was starting to look like a dick , never mind Mug!!

Trust me there was only one person looking like a dick and mug has the patience of a saint. He didn't have to prove anything and especially not in those circumstances.

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 05:00PM

mug wrote: »

cheers,

i will

No you fking won't you signed an exclusive contract to only post on my site when you got me drunk!!! ................ lol

Thanks again for doing it. Its an interesting thread no doubt and Boards is a great message board so I know you are heading off soon but drop in when you can.

ValueSeeker · 12-05-2010 05:04PM

Nulty wrote: »

Its good to get some threads on gambling in general rather than everyone just posting and discussing particular bets. Wayne Bailey used to post here a lot but he seems too busy these days.

Good point.

Are there mods around the gambling forum? It would be an idea to make a 'sticky' thread and I and I'm sure a few others would be happy to contribute to it with some informative articles that will be of good benefit to punters trying to improve their betting.

x PyRo · 12-05-2010 05:08PM

Fair play to Mug for coming along and answering questions from the real mugs. :pac: (Joke!)

Keep up the good work and hopefully it'll continue to be a prosperous venture for you.

mug · 12-05-2010 05:28PM

Nulty wrote: »

Following on from the short priced favs etc.

The price can change so radically in the 10 mins before the off. Often, people see a shorty and lump on distorting the price of the other runners. I suppose it doesn't matter as much with Guaranteed Prices these days but is it not best to monitor the market right up until the off so you can press up if the price gets significantly better. Racing I'm talking obv.

(complete aside, sry)

this is exactly what happened today.. the horse that i'd backed earlier at 11/4 and 5/2 looked like a value bet at the time, then the whole complexion of the race changed by the time it went off and it was backed into 6/5 favourite. if i'd waited until the race, i wouldn't have had a bet on anything. as it happened i was loving the price that i was on at, although that ultimately made it more annoying that it was unplaced...

something that i'm sure goes without saying, but it's obviously a big bonus if u can get on with firms that guarantee their early prices so u get the SP if thats bigger. u can probably get the lot on this way if it's for relatively small stakes. i'll have to take some at SP though if i want to get a good bit on.

oppiuy · 12-05-2010 06:24PM

Really enjoyed reading the interview and what you've done. I recently started watchin horse racing with a view to picking out what i think are future winners and got a few on Saturday
( chilworth lad 13-2 and dyna waltz both came in)

Reading this article has given me a greater insight into what i should be looking for to help bash those damn bookies..

Wodawick · 13-05-2010 10:42AM

Lads,

Long-time lurker and first-time poster here. This thread has really caught my eye.

Q for Mug re today:

7.05 Ludlow
Fav 9/10
2nd fav 9/4
3rd fav Emotional Article 13/2
16/1 Bar (9 runners)

Emotional Article a qualifier under your system? Seems to fit the bill.

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 10:53AM

Good question. As I understand it you would need to wait for the Betfair market to come to life. There is only £420 traded in the place market and £1300 in the win market so there is no hard info there at the minute.
If it trades at odds on a place and is 13/2 in the bookies you would think it has to be a bet. The bookies are 13/10 a place with that price so if it was say 1.8 on betfair that makes it a true 4/5 chance to be placed and your value is backing a 4/5 chance at 5/4.... (doesn't sound that hot when you put it that way... lol but it is a massive advantage I think)
I am not the expert though. Maybe the bet is backing both the 2nd fav and the 3rd fav?

Wodawick · 13-05-2010 11:01AM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Good question. As I understand it you would need to wait for the Betfair market to come to life. There is only £420 traded in the place market and £1300 in the win market so there is no hard info there at the minute.
If it trades at odds on a place and is 13/2 in the bookies you would think it has to be a bet. The bookies are 13/10 a place with that price so if it was say 1.8 on betfair that makes it a true 4/5 chance to be placed and your value is backing a 4/5 chance at 5/4.... (doesn't sound that hot when you put it that way... lol but it is a massive advantage I think)
I am not the expert though. Maybe the bet is backing both the 2nd fav and the 3rd fav?

Cheers for that. We'll keep an eye on it for later.

Another race today caught my eye as well.......

6.40 Folkestone
Fav 2/1
2nd Fav 7/2
3rd Fav Lord Snow 5/1
8/1 Bar
(11 Runners)

Doesn't appear as clear-cut as the other race I've highlighted, but would Lord Snow also be a qualifier?

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 11:30AM

Wodawick wrote: »

Lads,

Long-time lurker and first-time poster here. This thread has really caught my eye.

Q for Mug re today:

7.05 Ludlow
Fav 9/10
2nd fav 9/4
3rd fav Emotional Article 13/2
16/1 Bar (9 runners)

Emotional Article a qualifier under your system? Seems to fit the bill.

Hope you don't mind. I reposted you question on my site because sometimes he is more likely to answer the questions there,and its an interesting question.

http://pricewiseextra.info/the-interview/comment-page-1/#comment-144

Wodawick · 13-05-2010 11:32AM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Hope you don't mind. I reposted you question on my site because sometimes he is more likely to answer the questions there,and its an interesting question.

http://pricewiseextra.info/the-interview/comment-page-1/#comment-144

No problem at all.

Anything that helps in the battle against the bookies is fine by me!

mug · 13-05-2010 01:33PM

Wodawick wrote: »

Cheers for that. We'll keep an eye on it for later.

Another race today caught my eye as well.......

6.40 Folkestone
Fav 2/1
2nd Fav 7/2
3rd Fav Lord Snow 5/1
8/1 Bar
(11 Runners)

Doesn't appear as clear-cut as the other race I've highlighted, but would Lord Snow also be a qualifier?

this one definitely isn't a bet in my eyes

with the 7.05 ludlow race, it's hard to tell at the minute as the betfair place market is very loose, but from experience i think both the 2nd and 3rd favs could be a bet.

i know that most people don't typically think of 5/2 shots as good EW bets, but they can be.. if there horse went off at 5/2, and on the off was trading at 3.6 on the betfair win market, and 1.35 on the place market, then i would definitely make it a bet.. nothing to get excited about but certainly a small bit of value.

emotional article will probably be better value.

at the minute i think it's worth backing both of them if u can get the 5/2 and 8/1 with firms that guarantee their early prices. i won't get much at those prices so i'm just going to leave it til closer to the race and see how things look.

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 01:42PM

Can I ask, what makes you think these horses are value if you don't know anyting about them? Is it just from the results of your system over time or is there something more to it?

Wodawick · 13-05-2010 01:52PM

mug wrote: »

this one definitely isn't a bet in my eyes

with the 7.05 ludlow race, it's hard to tell at the minute as the betfair place market is very loose, but from experience i think both the 2nd and 3rd favs could be a bet.

i know that most people don't typically think of 5/2 shots as good EW bets, but they can be.. if there horse went off at 5/2, and on the off was trading at 3.6 on the betfair win market, and 1.35 on the place market, then i would definitely make it a bet.. nothing to get excited about but certainly a small bit of value.

emotional article will probably be better value.

at the minute i think it's worth backing both of them if u can get the 5/2 and 8/1 with firms that guarantee their early prices. i won't get much at those prices so i'm just going to leave it til closer to the race and see how things look.

Cheers for that. I was a bit confused until you updated the post!!

Might have a little tickle on Emotional Article, just to set the ball rolling. Rome wasn't built in a day, though.

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 01:53PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Can I ask, what makes you think these horses are value if you don't know anyting about them? Is it just from the results of your system over time or is there something more to it?

Is it not the maths VS? I mean if the 5/2 is 1.35 a place and you take that as the true price in the betfair market then is it not a bit of value at 2/5?

edit sorry meant 1/2

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 02:37PM

If you take something individually, to know whether or not the odds are value, you have to know the true chance of the selection winning.

1/2 implies a true chance of 66.66%. So looking for an edge, he'd want to be sure that the horse is a 70% + to take a place

I'm just wondering if he does any of this, or if his system has proved good long term returns so that he doesn't have to have any knowledge of the horses. I'm not trying to catch him out or anything, just wondering!

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 02:46PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

If you take something individually, to know whether or not the odds are value, you have to know the true chance of the selection winning.

1/2 implies a true chance of 66.66%. So looking for an edge, he'd want to be sure that the horse is a 70% + to take a place

I'm just wondering if he does any of this, or if his system has proved good long term returns so that he doesn't have to have any knowledge of the horses. I'm not trying to catch him out or anything, just wondering!

I think what he said was the true odds are reflected in the betfair prices. So 1.35 or 35 to 100 represents a 74% chance.
I'm sure you are not trying to catch him out. Its a fair enough question.

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 02:56PM

I made over a 50pt profit this year at Cheltenham doing something similar. I know sweet f.a about horses and my strategy was simply to watch certain longer price market movers from the night before in selected races (No big favs) and then back them E/W with books offering an extra place.

While it proved to be very profitable, I can't say it would continue to be as it was only about 15 races.

But this system seems to be something along those lines....

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 03:09PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

I made over a 50pt profit this year at Cheltenham doing something similar. I know sweet f.a about horses and my strategy was simply to watch certain longer price market movers from the night before in selected races (No big favs) and then back them E/W with books offering an extra place.

While it proved to be very profitable, I can't say it would continue to be as it was only about 15 races.

But this system seems to be something along those lines....

It seems a similar idea. If you were looking at betfair and a horse 2/1 to be placed with 4 places and you can back it 8/1 each way with the bookies and get 5 places that looks a huge edge to me.

mug · 13-05-2010 03:20PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Can I ask, what makes you think these horses are value if you don't know anyting about them? Is it just from the results of your system over time or is there something more to it?

my results over a long period of time certainly support the theory, but that's not the reasoning behind it.

i know next to nothing about horse racing. it actually came to me one time when i was looking at betting on the premier league. it was mid-way through the season and the betting was something like 1/5 man utd, 5/1 chelsea, 20/1 arsenal, and all the rest were any price u like. (i'm not sure if i've got the teams the right way round, but the betting was close to this)

it occurred to me what a good bet it would be to back chelsea and arsenal Each Way... their win odds were probably right, but the place part of the bet would be vastly over-priced. i checked the place market on betfair and this supported my thinking.. chelsea were something like 1/10 to place and arsenal were odds-on too... unfortunately when i went to place my bet i saw that EW terms were no longer available.

that got me thinking though, that maybe this could be applied to any sport where the market was priced up similarly, and horse racing seems to be the one to offer the most opportunities. true, you won't get a race that would be as good value as what i thought i had found with the above example, but there are plenty that are value for EW betting.

as i said, i knew nothing about racing, so when i thought i had found a suitable race i checked with the market on betfair to see if it supported what i thought.

even without knowing anything about horse racing, it appeared to me that if a race was priced up something like 1/3, 7/2, 12/1, 33/1, 33/1, 50/1, 100/1, 100/1, then the 7/2 shot would be in the top 3 places the vast majority of the time.

there was nothing to suggest that 7/2 on the horse winning was value, but it's pretty obvious that 7/10 on the horse being in the 1st 3 was much too big... off the top of my head i would think it's true odds of being placed would be 3/10 or shorter (imagine what price the horse would be to win if the fav was a non-runner, and then what price it would be to finish first or 2nd if the fav was a non-runner).

in this example it's blatently obvious that backing the 2nd fav EW is a value bet (and possibly others in the race), but in some instances it wasn't so clear cut.

if the betting was something like 1/1, 7/2, 7/1, 12/1, 20/1, 50/1, 100/1, 100/1, how would u price up the 2nd fav's chances of being in the top 3 without knowing anything about the horses other than their price? off the top of my head i'd guess maybe around 6/10.

now it's a bit marginal.. i can get 7/10 on the place part of my EW bet which is probably a bit of value, but i'm getting 7/2 on the win part which is probably slightly bad value (again not because i know anything about the horse, but generally bookies are going to try to lay prices that are slightly worse than what the true price should be). also my estimate of 6/10 on the horse placing could be a bit out too, so i wouldn't really know what to do here.

this is why i started using betfair as a guide. close to the off time the betfair markets for horse racing are very competitive indeed, and i think its reasonable to assume that over a long period of time the mid-point between the back and lay prices on betfair are a pretty good guide to what the horse's true odds should be.

that's why when i say, if the horse is trading at 1.35 to place on betfair, and you can get 1.5 odds for the place part of your bet it's definitely value. it might not be in this particular race because betfair punters can get it wrong, but it's pretty clear that if you can back something at 1.5 when it's trading around 1.35 on betfair on a competitive market, many times over the year you are going to make a profit.

you also have to consider it's win price too. again i'd just be using betfair as a guide again to give me some kind of idea to what the horse's true odds should be. if the horse was trading at 3.75 to win on BF, and you are only getting 5/2 for this part of your bet, then obviously you're getting the worst of it here, and you have to factor that into your thinking. overall though, in this example it would be slightly in your favour though.

i know it may seem like a big assumption to make, that betfair's prices are accurate in the long term, but they certainly seem to be... when i first started doing it, i would lay off against the BF prices for small freerolls, but i found that although i was still winning overall, i was losing on betfair... which makes complete sense really. if u assume that the true odds of a horse are somewhere around the mid-point of BF, and i am laying them at the lay price, and then paying commission on top, then over a long period i should be losing money.

now i just back the horses EW with the firms, and ride out the variance. it's definitely more profitable, and the variance isn't that bad anyway.

i still use betfair as a guide even though you get a good feel for them after a while and don't really need betfair, but i'm mentioning it in the thread here because i think the difference in the betfair prices and the price you are getting for the place part of your EW bet helps people understand the value in it

mug · 13-05-2010 03:29PM

if u agree with me that the mid-point on a competitive betfair market is on average likely to be close to the true odds, then you can do a pretty accurate calculation of what your edge should be on each bet... i gave an example on pricewiseextra... there's some repitition with what i've already said above, but i'll paste it in anyway

imagine an 8 horse race (EW terms are 1/5 odds for top 3 finish), where the betting is as follows: 1/4, 9/2, 25/1, 66/1, 100/1, 100/1, 100/1, 100/1… this is best case scenario, and races this good only come around a few times per year, but they do happen. if u back the 2nd fav EW then you are getting 9/2 about it winning, and 9/10 about it placing. now the 9/2 win part is generally going to be bad value (if the horse is 9/2 then it’s true odds of winning are probably typically about 5/1 or 11/2).
but you can see by looking at the prices of all the horses in the race, that the second favourite’s chances of being in the top 3 are very good indeed. i’d estimate in this sort of race it would be trading on the betfair place market at about 3/10… and u are getting odds of 9/10 fot that part of your bet.
to give u an idea of what sort of value there is here, imagine if the race ran out 100 times.

given that the horse’s true odds of winning are around 5/1 or 11/2, it should be expected to win the race about 17-18% of the time (lets say only 17), and given that it’s true place odds are around 3/10, it should be expected to place around 78% of the time.

so if u could hypothetically run the event 100 times and bet $100EW on each race, then on average 17 times out of 100 you win $450 on the win part of your bet, and 83 times you will lose $100. this means that over 100 runs you should expect to lose around $650 on the win part.

on the place part of your bet, it should place 78% of the time, therefore 78 times you will win $90, and 22 times you will lose $100, so over 100 runs you should expect to win $4,820 on the place part of your bet.

subtracting the $650 that you lose on the win part still gives you $4,170 profit for a total outlay of $20,000 so your average return for you total stake is going to be around 20% for this kind of race.

as i said above, a race this good is pretty rare, but there are plenty of races every week where backing the 2nd fav EW can have a value of 5% to 10% which is still a big enough edge to make good money if you are able to get enough on.

a 10 horse race where they bet 1/1 5/2 5/1 20/1 33/1 bar, is going to be decent value in backing both the 2nd and 3rd favs..
a 5 runner race where they bet 1/3, 11/4 16/1 bar is gonna be decent value
even a race where there bet 2/1, 5/2, 3/1, 25/1 bar is going to be a bit of value, (even perhaps in backing the favourite EW)

you’ll get a feel for them the more u look at them, but u can check them by looking at what price you are getting on the horse to win/place by backing EW with the firms, and what price the horse is trading at to win and to place on the seperate befair markets, then working through it like i’ve done above to give u a good idea of whether or not its value

Sizzler · 13-05-2010 04:02PM

Sorry mug but to ask a silly question, I understand the chance you are taking on the % of a 2nd fav winning and in all your examples you are expecting it to lose generally 4 out of 5 times but you are emphasising the e/w market and using 5/2 & 7/2 prices as examples as value after a short priced fav, but backing horses e/w at those prices you arent even going to get your stake back when it places. Im probbably missing something elementary here but perhaps you can explain the rationale...

I always thought the benchmark for e/w punting was generally 9/2 at a push or higher.

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 04:50PM

Cheers Mug, something I may look into while in the footy off season.

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 04:54PM

Sizzler wrote: »

Sorry mug but to ask a silly question, I understand the chance you are taking on the % of a 2nd fav winning and in all your examples you are expecting it to lose generally 4 out of 5 times but you are emphasising the e/w market and using 5/2 & 7/2 prices as examples as value after a short priced fav, but backing horses e/w at those prices you arent even going to get your stake back when it places. Im probbably missing something elementary here but perhaps you can explain the rationale...

I always thought the benchmark for e/w punting was generally 9/2 at a push or higher.

The trick would be to look at the win and each ways parts as totally separate bets. Or if you looked at it together, the places would return most of your total outlay(Each way and win part) and the wins would rocket you into the profit zone overall

ValueSeeker · 13-05-2010 05:10PM

mug wrote: »

if u agree with me that the mid-point on a competitive betfair market is on average likely to be close to the true odds,

That's actually very much like what I've been banging on about recently in the "anytime goalscorer" football markets.

I posted a link the other day showing just how much the odds differ from book to book on certain matches in that particular market. I mentioned that even if you didn't know anything about football, you could be pretty sure in those circumstances that most of the time the fair odds are somewhere right in the middle of the smallest and biggest prices, therefore backing with the book quoting the biggest price each time would yield massive returns. Or better still, use betfair where in that market, the prices are usually very very generous.

Example: Mallorca v Real Madrid

I posted on these forums that Aduriz to score was the best value bet of that match. Aduriz was actually priced as low as 11/8 with B/SQ while he was I think as high as 3/1 with other books. This is a pretty normal occurrence in that market and (while I don't think on that night) most of the time, a selection like that would hit 4/1 on the exchanges about 30 mins before kickoff.

mike65 · 13-05-2010 05:36PM

I hope you got the money on for Emotional Article, its suddenly shortened from 13/2 to 5/1 on PP.

edit, Cedrus Liban was pulled, that explains that.

mug · 13-05-2010 05:42PM

just home after backing it and i see the favourite has just become a non runner.. emotional article still a a bet though i think

mug · 13-05-2010 06:01PM

Sizzler wrote: »

Sorry mug but to ask a silly question, I understand the chance you are taking on the % of a 2nd fav winning and in all your examples you are expecting it to lose generally 4 out of 5 times but you are emphasising the e/w market and using 5/2 & 7/2 prices as examples as value after a short priced fav, but backing horses e/w at those prices you arent even going to get your stake back when it places. Im probbably missing something elementary here but perhaps you can explain the rationale...

I always thought the benchmark for e/w punting was generally 9/2 at a push or higher.

the only benchmark should be whether ur bet is value or not... obviously it's all one person's opinion, but in theory, as VS says, u should look at any EW bet at 2 seperate bets...

if u know 8/1 about a horse winning is a good value bet then u should back it to win. if u know that odds of 8/5 (or 8/4 depending on the type of race) is also good value u should back it EW.

the type of races that most people will have an EW bet on are usually the worst kind.

backing a 5/1 shot EW in a very competitive handicap race where every horse has a chance is going to generally very bad value

picture a hypothetical 8 horse race where it's known for certain that every horse has the same chance and they bet 6/1 the field.

if u back one of the horses EW, for the place part of your bet u are getting 6/5 odds on it being placed, but since we know for a fact that they all have the same chance, the true odds of your horse being placed are 8/3.... u are getting a horrible price.

most of the bets that i do are shorter than 5/1, which is the break even point with getting my stake back for a place, and so most of the time i will show a small loss on the bet, but that's not important at all.

some of the bets i do are on horses that are bigger than 5/1... i'd back a 10/1 chance EW if it looked like it should be 6/4 to place, but that isn't as profitable in the long run as backing 7/2 shots that should be 1/3 to place

POINTBREAK · 13-05-2010 06:03PM

Good luck, I put it in a double with The Archbishop of Canterbury.

mike65 · 13-05-2010 06:04PM

Oh no, a refusal coming. Phew he went!

Emotional wasn't it?

Ask a Pro.

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