Ask a Pro.

ValueSeeker · 12-05-2010 02:37PM

In_tuition wrote: »

Does anyone take coaches head-to-head record into account when making a selection.

I'd doubt anyone does.

Managers change posts on regular basis these days and it's something that needs to be addressed when making a selection.

As we know all managers have a style of playing and if you look at the statistics there is a lot of manager who find it extremely difficult to outwit another. This is value really comes to the fore as 99% of odds compilers don't take this into consideration.

I can't say I do.

Very valid though but a lot of effort needed in the study.

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 02:37PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

This could turn out to be a very informative thread for people that want to become more astute punters.

While we are on the subject, I would recommend Derek McGovern's book "Sports Betting - And How To Make It Pay".

Pointbreak already mentioned Mark Coton. Strangely enough , McGovern mentions his book in his own. Mark Coton - "Value Betting". That 1 I havn't read but it sounds like it's quite informative too.

With regards to staking, my maximum unit stake (5 units) equates to 1% of my bankroll. Different strokes for different folks but I'm very conservative. Obviously the big hitters would use more of a Kelly type system approach.

I was always aware of the edges there were either for or against but I used to only bet for fun until I was about 21. IE: I wouldn't have cared if I was getting only 1/1 on a 45% shot, I'd throw it into an accumulator(which of course I knew was a serious waste of money over time). I used to play slot machines all the time etc as I never even contemplated doing what I do now.

But as I grew older and got into it more, I became very aware of how much of an edge I could see in certain markets, just how far off some of the pricing was and how easy it would be to make money if I decided to become serious. So to answer someone's question earlier in the thread - with that I chucked college and my Engineering course and havn't looked back.

VS Mark Cotons book is good but it was written before betting exchanges and when there was still a 10% betting tax in the UK so its a bit outdated. I wonder what he would make of Betfair. He makes the same point as Mug about each way steals.

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 02:39PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

I can't say I do.

Very valid though but a lot of effort needed in the study.

Sure is but the effort is reflected in the better value on most occasions.

ValueSeeker · 12-05-2010 02:40PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

VS Mark Cotons book is good but it was written before betting exchanges and when there was still a 10% betting tax in the UK so its a bit outdated. I wonder what he would make of Betfair. He makes the same point as Mug about each way steals.

That was the 1 problem with McGovern's book. I'd also be very interested in how he's doing these days. He was able to make a consistent profit in the days of what it seems would have been seriously hard to do (in football).

ValueSeeker · 12-05-2010 02:52PM

Take a look at this: Anytime scorer Fulham v Atletico

I know I've only been around for a short time here but those who know me will know I work the 'anytime goalscorer' markets. The above link on it's own should be enough to tell you why.

Just look at the range of prices available from the different books. That will tell you that they really are very unsure of themselves.

If you didn't even have much of a clue about this market, I would suggest that by backing strikers (with book with highest odds) that range so severely across the books will roll in the profits longterm. Reason being that where the opinion is so split, the "True Price" is usually somewhere in the middle, meaning there's big value in taking the longest price.

Now if you ARE clued up, this market can be a gold mine. I havn't even mentioned the exchanges yet where you can get much bigger odds generally.

mug · 12-05-2010 03:00PM

In_tuition wrote: »

And face a never ending wait for my money? (5 times bitten, forever shy).

This kid is a losing poker player who has had the odd big win on the tables and successfully spun it up for a few days in the sportsbook, probably happened him on several occasions.

Now he realised he never had, nor will have, the disicipline to be happy with his winnings and attempts to portray that he has learned so much in the past.

He still says he doesnt know if he is a professional poker player, he admits he has a serious lack of disicpline.

This is the one factor you need to be successful as a poker player and a sports bettor, yet he doesn't have it but he's so successful? Come on guys, ffs.

There is thousands like him and thousands will follow in his footsteps.

Where's the proof?

i said i'd leave the money with a 3rd party for the duration of the bet. if u know anyone on here who's suitable, well known and well respected then let me know. i'm more than happy to follow through with this.

for what its worth, it hasn't been spun up over a few days... i've been making a living from poker for 10 years, with only one small losing year, and i've shown a profit with betting over the 5 year period that i've gotten more serious about it and started to keep records.

and i'm very happy with my winnings, although i know if i was more disciplined and put more into it i could be doing better.

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:04PM

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Take a look at this: Anytime scorer Fulham v Atletico

I know I've only been around for a short time here but those who know me will know I work the 'anytime goalscorer' markets. The above link on it's own should be enough to tell you why.

Just look at the range of prices available from the different books. That will tell you that they really are very unsure of themselves.

If you didn't even have much of a clue about this market, I would suggest that by backing strikers (with book with highest odds) that range so severely across the books will roll in the profits longterm. Reason being that where the opinion is so split, the "True Price" is usually somewhere in the middle, meaning there's big value in taking the longest price.

Now if you ARE clued up, this market can be a gold mine. I havn't even mentioned the exchanges yet where you can get much bigger odds generally.

This probably has something to do with the accountants running the bookies. Both my local bookies are now only allowed to buy one paper and the RacingPost. Not that long ago all the big firms hired outside odds compilers supplemented by their own in-house team. When the prices came in from the outside firms they sat down and generally came up with a price that was close to the middle so it was rare for them to be way out on something.

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 03:06PM

mug wrote: »

i've been making a living from poker for 10 years, with only one small losing year,

I've heard it all now.

If you are a profitable Irish or UK poker player then I know you and you come across as someone that I do now know.

I could list off names of poker players, who are my closest pals, who you would know and deem to be successful, winning players but the truth of it is that there is about 1, maybe 2 of them who are actually making something.

Enough of the bull*hit huh.

mug · 12-05-2010 03:08PM

clived2 wrote: »

Mug

First of all, thanks for sharing,

2 quick easy questions

1. Why would other pros give you their selections without giving something in return,

2. Your EW bets on horses is something I need to look into, you state you have little knowledge of these horses and each races there in and base your bets on maths which is a good start, Do you not think studying the races your going to bet on in great detail might occasionally let you believe that this is not a good bet and not place which would result in major % increases on profit at year end

1. some of them i am friendly with and share information with. actually i'm friendly with all the guys i do this with, but with a couple of them, it's purely a business deal. they give me the bets, i get some money on for them, and i take a % of the bet for myself. with a couple of them, as soon as i am no longer able to get bets on for them, i won't hear about any future bets. which is completely fair.

2. yes, if i spent a lot of time studying the horse racing it could definitely be fine-tuned to offer me greater return, but i do well out of it with no thought whatsoever and it isn't my main source of income anyway so i don't feel the need right now to put all that work in for an extra 10 or 20% on my horseracing profits. i could do that by getting off my arse more and spending 2 hours going around shops instead of 1 hour.

mug · 12-05-2010 03:08PM

In_tuition wrote: »

I've heard it all now.

If you are a profitable Irish or UK poker player then I know you and you come across as someone that I do now know.

I could list off names of poker players, who are my closest pals, who you would know and deem to be successful, winning players but the truth of it is that there is about 1, maybe 2 of them who are actually making something.

Enough of the bull*hit huh.

name one

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:13PM

In_tuition wrote: »

I've heard it all now.

If you are a profitable Irish or UK poker player then I know you and you come across as someone that I do now know.

I could list off names of poker players, who are my closest pals, who you would know and deem to be successful, winning players but the truth of it is that there is about 1, maybe 2 of them who are actually making something.

Enough of the bull*hit huh.

Are just trying to goad him into giving his name In-Tuit?

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 03:15PM

mug wrote: »

name one

You are very immature aren't you?

I sent you a PM. Email me and I will list off names to you.

I will not divulge my personal life on a thread, obviously.

I and You know you are full of sh*te and you have yet to provide any form of proof to prove your 'all-talk' attitude.

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:15PM

In_tuition wrote: »

I've heard it all now.

If you are a profitable Irish or UK poker player then I know you and you come across as someone that I do now know.

I could list off names of poker players, who are my closest pals, who you would know and deem to be successful, winning players but the truth of it is that there is about 1, maybe 2 of them who are actually making something.

Enough of the bull*hit huh.

Are just trying to goad him into giving his name In-Tuit? Its entertaining, but I cant see it working. You are causing much hilarity here though with your wild assumptions..... lol

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 03:16PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Are just trying to goad him into giving his name In-Tuit? Its entertaining, but I cant see it working. You are causing much hilarity here though with your wild assumptions..... lol

Assumptions which are clearly backed up due to no proof whatsoever being provided.

I won't 'ruin' your thread any longer mate.

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:18PM

In_tuition wrote: »

Assumptions which are clearly backed up due to no proof whatsoever being provided.

I won't 'ruin' your thread any longer mate.

ffs dont leave!!

clived2 · 12-05-2010 03:23PM

In_tuition wrote: »

Hi Mug.

Overall. I'm not posting to bash you so don't get all thick on me. I've had the misfortune of befriending people similar (note not like) to yourself in the past and 100% of the time they were completely full of garbage.

.

In_tuition wrote: »

You are very immature aren't you?

I sent you a PM. Email me and I will list off names to you.

I will not divulge my personal life on a thread, obviously.

I and You know you are full of sh*te and you have yet to provide any form of proof to prove your 'all-talk' attitude.

I think you could be bitter
Stemming from losing your bankroll down the ****ter
Hence the reason for your suspicion
But thats just my intuition

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:24PM

In_tuition wrote: »

Assumptions which are clearly backed up due to no proof whatsoever being provided.

I won't 'ruin' your thread any longer mate.

Assumptions ARE NOT backed up because no proof is offered. What sort of logic are you using? Thats like saying the Moon is hollow and the inside is filled with white mice. It must be true because there is no proof it isnt ...so there!

mug · 12-05-2010 03:26PM

PM sent.. this can all be sorted out pretty quickly if u do know someone that i know, which you definitely will if you're telling the truth... in fact we may even know eachother

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 03:38PM

mug wrote: »

PM sent.. this can all be sorted out pretty quickly if u do know someone that i know, which you definitely will if you're telling the truth... in fact we may even know eachother

I replied before I seen this.

Would you not think it would be all sorted out if you actually provided some detailed evidence E.G. Part of your recorded results? (just an example).

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 03:54PM

In_tuition wrote: »

I replied before I seen this.

Would you not think it would be all sorted out if you actually provided some detailed evidence E.G. Part of your recorded results? (just an example).

That was the original plan, but then it was realised that it would be even harder to get bets on if you come across as a shrewd punter rather than a big poker player who likes a bet, so I asked if he would go ahead and remain nameless.

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 03:59PM

POINTBREAK wrote: »

That was the original plan, but then it was realised that it would be even harder to get bets on if you come across as a shrewd punter rather than a big poker player who likes a bet, so I asked if he would go ahead and remain nameless.

I have given your pal the information he asked for.

I'll await his response.

In_tuition · 12-05-2010 04:30PM

My apologies to Mug and Pointbreak.

I think though my argument was acceptable considering the amount of people who create these personas/

Having 'investigated' Mug I can assure anyone who is skeptical on the thread that he is who he says he is and he does turn over the profit he says he does.

He is also a successful poker player so thumbs up to Mug and Pointbreak.

Shame on me for doubting!

awhir · 12-05-2010 04:36PM

In_tuition wrote: »

My apologies to Mug and Pointbreak.

I think though my argument was acceptable considering the amount of people who create these personas/

Having 'investigated' Mug I can assure anyone who is skeptical on the thread that he is who he says he is and he does turn over the profit he says he does.

He is also a successful poker player so thumbs up to Mug and Pointbreak.

Shame on me for doubting!

10 hail marys and 20 our fathers

Nulty · 12-05-2010 04:38PM

Is anyone else seriously curious as to what hapened in the mean time?

I reckon In Tuition named someone that mug might know and mug turned out to be that guy:pac::pac:

...anyone else have a guess?

clived2 · 12-05-2010 04:39PM

In_tuition wrote: »

My apologies to Mug and Pointbreak.

I think though my argument was acceptable considering the amount of people who create these personas/

Having 'investigated' Mug I can assure anyone who is skeptical on the thread that he is who he says he is and he does turn over the profit he says he does.

He is also a successful poker player so thumbs up to Mug and Pointbreak.

Shame on me for doubting!

Fair play for apologizing however you should read back
at some of the crap you have written in the last few pages,

It was pathetic

mug · 12-05-2010 04:41PM

Nulty wrote: »

Is anyone else seriously curious as to what hapened in the mean time?

I reckon In Tuition named someone that mug might know and mug turned out to be that guy:pac::pac:

...anyone else have a guess?

he named someone we both know who could confirm what i've said

mug · 12-05-2010 04:45PM

clived2 wrote: »

Fair play for apologizing however you should read back
at some of the crap you have written in the last few pages,

It was pathetic

to be fair, i can understand him, and others, being sceptical. but hopefully it's all sorted now and we should probably all drop it rather than start any more arguments.

as value seeker said, this could be quite a useful thread for anyone interested in sports betting, and not just because of what i'm saying. there are abviously a few people on here who are pretty clued in and are woth listening to

Nulty · 12-05-2010 04:45PM

well mug, welcome to the forum. I understand your here for Point Break but you should log on again in the future for a bit of banter, now no one has any reason to doubt you:pac:

Its good to get some threads on gambling in general rather than everyone just posting and discussing particular bets. Wayne Bailey used to post here a lot but he seems too busy these days.

Again, welcome to boards.

mug · 12-05-2010 04:49PM

Nulty wrote: »

well mug, welcome to the forum. I understand your here for Point Break but you should log on again in the future for a bit of banter, now no one has any reason to doubt you:pac:

Its good to get some threads on gambling in general rather than everyone just posting and discussing particular bets. Wayne Bailey used to post here a lot but he seems too busy these days.

Again, welcome to boards.

cheers,

i will

POINTBREAK · 12-05-2010 04:52PM

In_tuition wrote: »

My apologies to Mug and Pointbreak.

I think though my argument was acceptable considering the amount of people who create these personas/

Having 'investigated' Mug I can assure anyone who is skeptical on the thread that he is who he says he is and he does turn over the profit he says he does.

He is also a successful poker player so thumbs up to Mug and Pointbreak.

Shame on me for doubting!

Thanks IT. I am glad you got it sorted out because I was starting to look like a dick , never mind Mug!!

Ask a Pro.

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