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mike65

Bumpers! :mad:

POINTBREAK

I think I have 5 potential races after trawling through betfair in the snow today ......

http://pricewiseextra.info/ev/

markhiggins

havnt been on here in a while but had a read through the thread and have to say good work pointbreak for setting the whole thing up and the others who are picking out these e/w shots, i think i might just be jumping on the band wagon!

mike65

The 4:35 has just got a lot easier to figure, Squall 6.50 looks an obvious e/w shout.

POINTBREAK

markhiggins wrote: »

havnt been on here in a while but had a read through the thread and have to say good work pointbreak for setting the whole thing up and the others who are picking out these e/w shots, i think i might just be jumping on the band wagon!

Thanks Mark. The only thing that concerns me is the 3 winners and 5/1 second from 4 bets is way beyond the expected results according to the mathematical explanation given. I'm kind of hoping that we can improve on the system as Mike did yesterday by adding in the Mc Coy factor and such. (at least I think that is what he did.... lol )

Juwwi

mike65 wrote: »

The 4:35 has just got a lot easier to figure

there is only 7 runners now so its now a no bet race

mike65

typical.

Here are my picks

Bangor 1.50 Alpine Breeze 3rd
Newbury 3.05 Zacinto unplaced
Kilbeggen 6.40 One Back For Luck placed this one went off as fav having shortened through the afternoon.
Thirk 2.40 Bollin Alan is intriguing, if he is as talented as his family then he could have this field for breakfast even on debut refused to run

Wodawick

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Thanks Mark. The only thing that concerns me is the 3 winners and 5/1 second from 4 bets is way beyond the expected results according to the mathematical explanation given. I'm kind of hoping that we can improve on the system as Mike did yesterday by adding in the Mc Coy factor and such. (at least I think that is what he did.... lol )

Absolutely! Three winners and a place from four bets is not sustainable in the long run. Having said that, all four horses had enough form to justify their prices.

Which leads me nicely unto my thoughts for today.......I have spotted three races in which there could be selections, but I'm inclined not to have a bet on any of them for various reasons.

1.50 Bangor Fav 1/1, Alpine Breeze 9/2, 3rd Fav 8/1, 10/1 Bar
(no bet as it is Alpine Breeze's first run over hurdles)

2.40 Thirsk Fav 4/7, Bollin Alan 9/2, 3rd Fav 9/1, 14/1 Bar
(no bet as it is Bollin Alan's racecourse debut, so price is based on trainer's previous form with debutants rather than the horse's ability)

4.35 Newmarket Fav 2/5, Squall 11/2, 3rd Fav, 12/1 Bar
(no bet as there are only 7 runners, so you are effectively betting on Squall beating the other six home, assuming the 2/5 shot runs to form.)

Lads, there's always tomorrow. Patience is a big weapon in the punter's armoury!

(Now, sit back and watch the three horses hiss in!)

Wodawick

Wodawick wrote: »

Absolutely! Three winners and a place from four bets is not sustainable in the long run. Having said that, all four horses had enough form to justify their prices.

Which leads me nicely unto my thoughts for today.......I have spotted three races in which there could be selections, but I'm inclined not to have a bet on any of them for various reasons.

1.50 Bangor Fav 1/1, Alpine Breeze 9/2, 3rd Fav 8/1, 10/1 Bar
(no bet as it is Alpine Breeze's first run over hurdles)

2.40 Thirsk Fav 4/7, Bollin Alan 9/2, 3rd Fav 9/1, 14/1 Bar
(no bet as it is Bollin Alan's racecourse debut, so price is based on trainer's previous form with debutants rather than the horse's ability)

4.35 Newmarket Fav 2/5, Squall 11/2, 3rd Fav, 12/1 Bar
(no bet as there are only 7 runners, so you are effectively betting on Squall beating the other six home, assuming the 2/5 shot runs to form.)

Lads, there's always tomorrow. Patience is a big weapon in the punter's armoury!

(Now, sit back and watch the three horses hiss in!)

I've had another look at Alpine Breeze's race, and with the poor form of many of the other runners, have changed my mind on this race. This, of course, contradicts the "patience" line in my last post!

One bet today, then, Alpine Breeze each-way at 9/2.

POINTBREAK

One bet today, then, Alpine Breeze each-way at 9/2.

I can't see that one as a value bet. It could easily win or be placed but trading at 1.9 a place on Betfair and the bookies laying the exact same price 9/10 there is no margin in it if I understand it properly?

Verance

Wodawick wrote: »

I've had another look at Alpine Breeze's race, and with the poor form of many of the other runners, have changed my mind on this race. This, of course, contradicts the "patience" line in my last post!

One bet today, then, Alpine Breeze each-way at 9/2.

Nah, no value in Alpine Breeze, you're getting around the same price for the place but losing out on the win part. Might be value in the 2.40 Thirsk but we'll have to wait until closer the off to get a clear picture.

EDIT. Bolin Allan would be slight value to place in the 2.40 but you're losing that and more cause the win is no value but Barra Raider could do - 16s on Coral and Betfair, 3s to place on Coral and 2s on Betfair, will have to check back later.

Sizzler

In_tuition wrote: »

Horse was travelling extremely well until push came to shove about 4 furlongs from home. Leaders drew clear and Delphi Mountain really struggled.

Extremely poor run and quite surprising giving how Charlie rated the chances.

We always end up with egg on the face

Sorry to those who lost money.

No bother mate, no doubt the tip was posted in good faith so you dont need to justify it here, not to me anyway:)

Even if delphi mountain was 100% last night that winner still would have shat on it, it was out of its depth on the night. IMHO Nina did it no favours either, WAY off the pace and got stuck in down the back, a bad ride.

As for today Im surprised nobody has mentioned Moose Moran in the 125 at Newbury,looks a good shout at 11/2?

mike65

Looks a bit too competitive at the business end.

Ha! Moose Moran wins, there you go. That was the only one for whom there was no money coming.

POINTBREAK

http://pricewiseextra.info/ev/

Potential value bets vanishing............. hmmmm

Zacinto has to be value. See post.

Sizzler

mike65 wrote: »

Looks a bit too competitive at the business end.

Ha! Moose Moran wins, there you go. That was the only one for whom there was no money coming.

Well I'm glad that one came off as the other 2 donkeys I posted last night at Dundalk are still running

Easy now I know (in my defence was in a rush earlier and didnt get a chance to run thru all the cards) but the below seem to have been stand out bets for "the system"...

Thirsk 205 - 3rd fav wins at 8/1
Thirsk 350 - 3rd fav wins at 5/1
Thirsk 425 - 2nd fav wins at 11/2
Bangor 330 - 2nd favs wins at 5/1
Bangor 405 - 2nd fav wins at 100/30
Bangor 515 - 3rd fav wins at 10/1

Doh!

Im off to see if I can find any similar ones at the night meeting

Sizzler

Have gone with the following for tonight (I fully expect these to bomb)

Doncaster - 630 Antoniola
Doncaster - 735 - Jeanne Galloway
Doncaster - 810 - Leonid Glow
Doncaster - 840 - Bilash

Sizzler

Uttoxeter - 650 - Windpfiel
Uttoxeter - 725 - Glimmer of light
Uttoxeter - 755 - Money Finder
Uttoxeter - 830 - Lifes a Mystery

POINTBREAK

Sizzler, apart from the 4.05 race which might have been a small possibility I don't think any of those would have been "system" bets?
How did you pick them?

mike65

I was just going to say the same, they could be good e/w bets but they do not fit the system as outlined by Mug.

Verance

Eh Sizzler, I don't think any of these are value, maybe Leonid Glow might be ok And none of those qualified today!

mike65

6:50 Uttoxeter has a nice shape.

General Smith at 8.00s should do no worse than place. Off at 5.50

finishes 2nd

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

I was just going to say the same, they could be good e/w bets but they do not fit the system as outlined by Mug.

There didn't seem to be anything today unless you were unlucky and backed Zacinto at 7/2 against Paco Boy, but that one sweated up before the race and drifted on Betfair in the place market before finishing last.
Two of the races had a 2/1 -15/8 second fav,and I don't think backing 2/1 chances would fit with the maths. One race ended up 7 runners and the other that was flagged up early didn't work out as a value bet.
It really depended what time you were doing your bets.

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

6:50 Uttoxeter has a nice shape.

General Smith at 8.00s should do no worse than place.

Yeah that's the obvious value bet. 4/5 a place on betfair and 1/1 with the bookies............ not a great advantage but an advantage all the same.

Jeez........ unlucky it traded at 100/1 on in running..............1.01

mug

strangely i've found that saturday's usually a abd day for them.. even thought there's more racing, it's normally a bit more competitive.

everything i do is completely mathematical, and had shown a good long term return, but it can definitely be improved upon by taking other stuff into account.

i'm sure u guys know a lot more about horse racing that i ever will, so using the basic system that i laid out and putting your heads together on here and talking through other factors like you have been, you should definitely be able to fine-tune it further.

mug

POINTBREAK wrote: »

There didn't seem to be anything today unless you were unlucky and backed Zacinto at 7/2 against Paco Boy, but that one sweated up before the race and drifted on Betfair in the place market before finishing last.
Two of the races had a 2/1 -15/8 second fav,and I don't think backing 2/1 chances would fit with the maths. One race ended up 7 runners and the other that was flagged up early didn't work out as a value bet.
It really depended what time you were doing your bets.

strange as it sounds, backing 2/1 shots EW can most definitely be value on occasions.

if the race is 2/5, 2/1, 20/1 bar... and the 2/1 shot is trading at 1.2 to place then it's definitely value.

pretty rare, but u'll definitely see a good few of these over the year

Sizzler

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Sizzler, apart from the 4.05 race which might have been a small possibility I don't think any of those would have been "system" bets?
How did you pick them?

mike65 wrote: »

I was just going to say the same, they could be good e/w bets but they do not fit the system as outlined by Mug.

Maybe I have simplified the system too much but I picked them based on them simply being extremely good e/w prices compared to the 1st and 2nd favs, apart from the lad that won at 100/30 they were all "no brainer" e/w prices, it just so happens some of them won.

Same for tonights selections, I was just looking at the value in e/w prices,nothing more. Wasnt that one of the fundamentals, value? If you see it and think its value then its a judgement call for you?

POINTBREAK

Sizzler wrote: »

Maybe I have simplified the system too much but I picked them based on them simply being extremely good e/w prices compared to the 1st and 2nd favs, apart from the lad that won at 100/30 they were all "no brainer" e/w prices, it just so happens some of them won.

Same for tonights selections, I was just looking at the value in e/w prices,nothing more. Wasnt that one of the fundamentals, value? If you see it and think its value then its a judgement call for you?

That's fair enough Sizzler, its just a different way of doing it from what we were talking about......... I hope they all win for you .

Sizzler

POINTBREAK wrote: »

That's fair enough Sizzler, its just a different way of doing it from what we were talking about......... I hope they all win for you .

Quick and dirty picks, nothing more than the price differential from the fav.If one of them wins I'd be delighted,places will do on a few of 'em to cover the evenings bets

Sizzler

Sizzler wrote: »

Have gone with the following for tonight (I fully expect these to bomb)

Doncaster - 630 Antoniola
Doncaster - 735 - Jeanne Galloway
Doncaster - 810 - Leonid Glow
Doncaster - 840 - Bilash

Sizzler wrote: »

Uttoxeter - 650 - Windpfiel
Uttoxeter - 725 - Glimmer of light
Uttoxeter - 755 - Money Finder
Uttoxeter - 830 - Lifes a Mystery

Doncaster - 630 Antoniola - Nowhere
Doncaster - 735 - Jeanne Galloway - Had it at 5/1,backed into 7/2 Joint Fav and still nowhere!
Doncaster - 810 - Leonid Glow - 2nd at 15/2
Doncaster - 840 - Bilash - beaten a s.h. at 11/2

]Uttoxeter - 650 - Windpfiel - 3rd at 9/1
Uttoxeter - 725 - Glimmer of light - Wins at 7/2 Fav.Backed it at 5/1.
Uttoxeter - 755 - Money Finder 2nd at 9/2
Uttoxeter - 830 - Lifes a Mystery Nowhere

Covered the nights punting with a slight profit so not too bad. We'll try again tomorrow

POINTBREAK

What are you basing your decisions on? You said it was quick and dirty so its not form, is it?