Could we hold our own against an invasion...ever?

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 12:21PM #1

Hey Guys,

Been doing a lot of research into Irish history and many thanks to those who replied to my other thread asking for good sourses on the Provos.

Anyways, I've read up in detail about the whole wishy washy "we cannot stand by" possible invasion of border areas by the Irish army during the battle of the bogside in '69 which is no widely regarded as a laughable plan which would have led to the slaughter of the troops involved and the bombing and further slaughter of the South should the DF have fought back.

And it got me thinking, in the year 2010, could the DF ever hold their own or at the very least fight back to an extent that we're not a complete push over?

We share a border with Britain so it's not inconceivable that in the future we might fall out (I dont want to talk about why because this thread will spiral into the usual nonsense). So if Britain, or any other country, were to launch an invasion against us do we stand a chance?

I think the general (however misinformed) attitude towards the army is "ohhh....THE ARMY!! lol" but I do know Irish troops are quite well trained and well equipped infantry-wise.

Could we win on home soil? Or would Dublin be occupied within hours or days and us left as a laughing stock?

bad2dabone · 12-05-2010 12:22PM

nope.

we'd be more set up for an armed resistance afaik.

Teferi · 12-05-2010 12:34PM

I don't think we could stand and fight. It would be back to guerilla warfare. We're awfully good at that.

I don't think it's anything to do with how well trained our troops are because the UK could literally just throw bodies at us until we run out of bullets and people. Their armed forces are far, far larger than us. We've got 10,000 active personnel, they have a quarter of a million.

Look how the taliban/warlords of Iraq and Afghanistan are fighting the British and US. Nearly 10 years since they start of both conflicts and they are still being harried by them.

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 12:45PM

I guess that pretty much makes sense. We're always going to be a small army.

I suppose, if the IRA, Taliban etc.... a bunch of comparatively ill trained fighters can keep big armies such as the US, UK tied up for years then a Guerrilla war fought by the DF would be quite devastating.

I imagine they would be fighting under the DF cap for the first year or there abouts until the weapons they snatched from the armories began to ran out. Then it would be good old fashioned IRA style ...

Bomb making and IED knowledge would be natural to the DF.

Would civil disorder play its part. The bogside tought us that populations can muster and force back security forces. So if Ireland were invaded, after the initial shock and awe of it all, surely the main cities would be filled with rioting whilst the country side and urban areas are harsh fighting zones?

Teferi · 12-05-2010 01:01PM

Dean0088 wrote: »

Would civil disorder play its part. The bogside tought us that populations can muster and force back security forces. So if Ireland were invaded, after the initial shock and awe of it all, surely the main cities would be filled with rioting whilst the country side and urban areas are harsh fighting zones?

I'm not trying to be funny but we can't even protest a shit government properly so I'd say we'd be inviting the British into our houses for tea. :pac:

I'd say you'd get a large amount of the population willing to riot and generally help a hand. There would be a smaller (although still quite large) population with split loyalties - they could have family who live/work in Britain, relatives who are born in Britain etc.

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 01:09PM

I'm not trying to be funny but we can't even protest a **** government properly so I'd say we'd be inviting the British into our houses for tea.

I'd say you'd get a large amount of the population willing to riot and generally help a hand. There would be a smaller (although still quite large) population with split loyalties - they could have family who live/work in Britain, relatives who are born in Britain etc.

I both agree and disagree with you.

I think the reason we arent protesting (as much) over the recession is because.... its not that much of a suprise for Ireland. The country had a good decade of prosperity in what was a 800 years of poverty. Back to mormal.

Also, whats there to protest about? Many people say dont bail out the bank, they deserve it. But if we dont then the whole country will flop. It's a catch 22 and most people see that.

As for national identy against an invading force, I think many civilians would stand up. A small scale version would be what happened in 2006 hen an orange order march in disguise was going to march past the GPO - pretty much our only national monument for the struggle. It wasnt just a small bunch of scum bags...many decent people started off in a sit down protest and fought back against efforts to allow the march. The sum robbed new runners from foot locker. Now multiply that by a thousand and have it happening every night and day all over the country.

A split may occur at first ... possibly ... but history tells us that Britain cant control any country where they're not wanted and no matter what they do it'll end up being a bad decision which'll turn the population against them. Maybe not as far as taking up arms, but they'll surely support those who do and cause civil disorder and impede the occupation.

CokaColumbo · 12-05-2010 01:15PM

I think it can be taken for granted that guerrilla warfare would the most beneficial course of action to be taken in the event of an invasion.

Does PDF and RDF training reflect this though? I read that the focus, in terms of strategy, is on conventional warfare only. Is this correct?
Is there any emphasis on guerrilla strategy & tactics?

randomuser77 · 12-05-2010 01:19PM

Dean0088 wrote: »

I guess that pretty much makes sense. We're always going to be a small army.

I suppose, if the IRA, Taliban etc.... a bunch of comparatively ill trained fighters can keep big armies such as the US, UK tied up for years then a Guerrilla war fought by the DF would be quite devastating.

I imagine they would be fighting under the DF cap for the first year or there abouts until the weapons they snatched from the armories began to ran out. Then it would be good old fashioned IRA style ...

I'm guessing that the DF would probably rely on guerilla tactics alright in this sort of scenario. However, I'm not sure if they'd do it in quite the way you've envisaged.

I'd imagine that it's more likely that they'd split up into small groups and attempt to mobilise support in the towns and cities rather than try to fight it by themselves. If they do it this way then they can spread their expertise (bomb making and such) to the people who would resisted anyway while ensuring a coherent leadership to what would otherwise be a disjointed struggle.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 01:20PM

No need to worry about an invasion, we are now great friends with the British and if any other country tried to invade, the best army in the the world is right next door, ready to help us out!

randomuser77 · 12-05-2010 01:24PM

CokaColumbo wrote: »

I think it can be taken for granted that guerrilla warfare would the most beneficial course of action to be taken in the event of an invasion.

Does PDF and RDF training reflect this though? I read that the focus, in terms of strategy, is on conventional warfare only. Is this correct?
Is there any emphasis on guerrilla strategy & tactics?

I'm guessing the Irish Army Rangers would have training in this sort of thing. Even if it's not specifically intended for this purpose, the sort of small unit tactics they learn should definitely be analogous. In fact, they are perfect for the implementation of the plan that I mentioned above.

OS119 · 12-05-2010 01:29PM

Dean0088 wrote: »

I guess that pretty much makes sense. We're always going to be a small army.

I suppose, if the IRA, Taliban etc.... a bunch of comparatively ill trained fighters can keep big armies such as the US, UK tied up for years then a Guerrilla war fought by the DF would be quite devastating.

I imagine they would be fighting under the DF cap for the first year or there abouts until the weapons they snatched from the armories began to ran out. Then it would be good old fashioned IRA style ...

Bomb making and IED knowledge would be natural to the DF.

Would civil disorder play its part. The bogside tought us that populations can muster and force back security forces. So if Ireland were invaded, after the initial shock and awe of it all, surely the main cities would be filled with rioting whilst the country side and urban areas are harsh fighting zones?

there's an element of self-deception in this thinking - the idea of 'organised insurgency' only has any relevency in the most unlikely possible scenario (that of a complete territorial invasion and long-lasting take-over), but in the realms of more realistic scenario's it is of no use whatsoever.

it seems to be 'this is what we can fight against, so we've decided that this is what any enemy is going to do'. having a defence policy that relies on any enemy to do both the most unlikely, and most ill-advised thing possible is more than just a little bit 'speshul'.

a vastly more likely possible threat would be have either a Maritime blockade, or to have a foreign power take control of a west coast airfield to prosecute a conflict over the Atlantic - its been suggested here before as a 'future threat', was certainly a NATO contingency plan, and was an Allied contingency in WWII.

if a NATO airborne force took Shannon, and NATO sea-power and air-power kept it supplied, quite what use would civil disturbance in Dublin be? or IED's?, or even 'Terrorism-lite'?

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 01:33PM

randomuser77 wrote: »

I'm guessing that the DF would probably rely on guerilla tactics alright in this sort of scenario. However, I'm not sure if they'd do it in quite the way you've envisaged.

I'd imagine that it's more likely that they'd split up into small groups and attempt to mobilise support in the towns and cities rather than try to fight it by themselves. If they do it this way then they can spread their expertise (bomb making and such) to the people who would resisted anyway while ensuring a coherent leadership to what would otherwise be a disjointed struggle.

Percisely. Ireland would be too small for the DF to go it alone. They might survive in the initial weeks and months but forming small groups and getting civilians in would be top priority as soon as we're occupied.

As for training - they might not recieve "right lads, in case we're invaded we're gonna teach yas guerilla tactics" but I'm sure the top brass are more than familiar with it and would have played out paper wars... Ambushing is fairly basic and I imagine there would be no problem in bothe the PDF and RDF (what little could be mobilised) engaging in it.

Bomb-making would be taught and civillians mustered up from the towens and cities to join in on the fighting. Gradually increasing in number.

The ARW would also be invaluable, I imagine, in harrasing the enemy as well as forming small fighting groups from civilians.

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 01:40PM

OS119 wrote: »

there's an element of self-deception in this thinking - the idea of 'organised insurgency' only has any relevency in the most unlikely possible scenario (that of a complete territorial invasion and long-lasting take-over), but in the realms of more realistic scenario's it is of no use whatsoever.

it seems to be 'this is what we can fight against, so we've decided that this is what any enemy is going to do'. having a defence policy that relies on any enemy to do both the most unlikely, and most ill-advised thing possible is more than just a little bit 'speshul'.

a vastly more likely possible threat would be have either a Maritime blockade, or to have a foreign power take control of a west coast airfield to prosecute a conflict over the Atlantic - its been suggested here before as a 'future threat', was certainly a NATO contingency plan, and was an Allied contingency in WWII.

if a NATO airborne force took Shannon, and NATO sea-power and air-power kept it supplied, quite what use would civil disturbance in Dublin be? or IED's?, or even 'Terrorism-lite'?

I was more so referring to Ireland being occupied totally. Let's say if someting was to kick off in Europe again over a dispute with Russia concerning the Middle East. Surely, nowadays having a big giant Ireland sized hole in Europe would be concern for NATO. We're perfect to position missile systems and troops as well as use our facilities.

Also, let's say something like your scenario did happen. A small force takes over shannon airpot ... The Irish army would surely resist this fiercly with support from the population.

I'm sorry but the scenario you suggested couldn't last long and would either end in

a) NATO withdraw within a few weeks because of resistance

or (more likely)

b) they're forced to pour more resources into Shannon and continually spread out their area of control to both combat the resistance and to secure the surrounding counties. Eventually taking all of Ireland would be necessary because leaving the rest is just giving a heaven for the DF to regroup and keep attacking and allowing other forms of resistance to gain momentum.

Thankfully, it is unlikely. For now. Without sounding like a nut job - look at whats happening in Greece and now the EU. The Euro is going down the toilet and several people have suggested that France and Germany would pull out of the Euro Zone whilst still getting the profits off the loans to Greece because they're from German banks...

Most conflicts whereby neutral countries are occupied (ww2 anyone?) start off with economic and social disdain. So to say its the least likely scenario is far fetched. I'm not saying its the most likely either ... Just in five or ten years if the recovery flops... who knows?

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 01:47PM

onemorechance wrote: »

No need to worry about an invasion, we are now great friends with the British and if any other country tried to invade, the best army in the the world is right next door, ready to help us out!

So the defence of Ireland relies on Britain. What if, on a global basis, things went belly up. Britain have their own problems at the minute with the Sterling in the toilet. Do they realy need to come to the rescue of Ireland? Especially considering it'll be themselves kicking the door in should Ireland be identified as a security risk.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 02:14PM

Dean0088 wrote: »

So the defence of Ireland relies on Britain. What if, on a global basis, things went belly up. Britain have their own problems at the minute with the Sterling in the toilet. Do they realy need to come to the rescue of Ireland? Especially considering it'll be themselves kicking the door in should Ireland be identified as a security risk.

The air defence of Ireland does actually currently rely on Britain. Ireland was considered a security risk to Britain up to the nineties, and may still be with the Real IRA attempting to continue their terrorist campaign, yet they did not "kick the door in".

Morpheus · 12-05-2010 02:16PM

If there was a threat of an invasion it would be IN THEIR (Britains) INTEREST to assist us to initially beef up our DF, secure our own country by providing logistics and probably equipment support and eventually probably their own units to work alongside ours.

Bill2673 · 12-05-2010 02:25PM

Its a numbers game, no?

I certainly think we'd fend off a Manx invasion. And if the Icelandics had a pop at us, we would come through that. I think we'd fight off the Belgians, or the Estonians. I don't know how we'd fare if the Croats invaded. If the French decided to invade we'd definitely lose out.

Question is so hypothetical as to be unanswerable in my view.

If football is an extension of war, then I don't think our army would rank nearly as highly in the military world as our soccer team does in the football world.

(And thats the way it should be in my view. Spending money on arms we won't use would be irresponsible - South Africa spent €100mn on submarines last year....that should help them bigtime when the US invades, but in the mean time they've got 50mln people in poverty).

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 02:29PM

onemorechance wrote: »

The air defence of Ireland does actually currently rely on Britain. Ireland was considered a security risk to Britain up to the nineties, and may still be with the Real IRA attempting to continue their terrorist campaign, yet they did not "kick the door in".

The IRA were combated by both Britain and Ireland - thus they wouldn't have really needed to as they were both cooperating, for the most part.

However, lets say if Sinn Fein had of gotten into government in the 70s/80s and declared the republic a safe heaven for the IRA, supplied them with weapons and training from the DF and given them all the means necessary to continue kicking the **** out of the Brits. THAT would have warranted an invasion.

Ireland was considered a security risk because of the activities of the IRA - not because of any large scale aggression between the republic and Great Britain.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 02:30PM

Bill2673 wrote: »

If the French decided to invade we'd definitely lose out.

Google: "french military victories"

Bill2673 · 12-05-2010 02:33PM

Still think they'd take us in a war though :-)

There are only two occasions I can think of where a small country fended off a prolonged, concerted invasion by a large country....

Finland, against Russial; Vietnam, against China.

In both cases the defending army was well trained. In both cases, the attacking army was poorly trained and poorly equipped (especially in the latter). And in the first case, weather played a large part.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 02:37PM

Dean0088 wrote: »

However, lets say if Sinn Fein had of gotten into government in the 70s/80s and declared the republic a safe heaven for the IRA, supplied them with weapons and training from the DF and given them all the means necessary to continue kicking the **** out of the Brits. THAT would have warranted an invasion.

Roughly £100,000 was donated by the Irish government to "Defence Committees" in Catholic areas and, according to historian Richard English, "there is now no doubt that some money did go from the Dublin government to the proto-Provisionals". (English, Richard (2003). Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA. Pan Books. pp. 119. ISBN 0-330-49388-4.)

Dean0088 wrote: »

Ireland was considered a security risk

Morpheus · 12-05-2010 02:39PM

BELGIUM????

Are you mad!?

Their airforce alone is massive compared to us. . . you sir, are probably joking!? :pac:

Bill2673 · 12-05-2010 02:41PM

this is so hypothetical and vague to be unanswerable.

Are you asking in simple terms, could we defend the country against a British invasion? Is that the question?

The answer is, who bloody cares its not going to happen. And no, of course we couldn't, any more than Britain couldn't defend itself if the US invaded it.

Bill2673 · 12-05-2010 02:46PM

Morpheus, no I'm not mad.

You speak as if knowing the size of Belgian airforce is as commonplace as knowing that Tesco sells vegetables.

Ok, then Luxembourg then......or do the luxemburgers have an arsenal of nuclear weaponry.

And if they do have a large air force, what a waste of money. No wonder the their govt was bankrupted (almost) in the 1990s.

And if they don't, nice ironic humour dude.

Lando Griffin · 12-05-2010 02:49PM

Bill2673 wrote: »

Are you asking in simple terms, could we defend the country against a British invasion? Is that the question?

.

We would probably hold our own until Saturday at least; but then all the men would have to watch Man Utd, Liverpool etc and all the women would tune into X Factor giving ample time for the Brits to suppress us.

It wasn't me! · 12-05-2010 02:51PM

Neutral countries (actual neutral countries) tend to spend heavily on their militaries, because they're obliged to defend themselves, not being able to rely on external assistance and alliances. Think of it like house insurance: If you never get robbed or suffer water damage or a fire, then you spent all that money for nothing, but if you didn't, you'd be a fool.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 02:53PM

Lando Griffin wrote: »

We would probably hold our own until Saturday at least; but then all the men would have to watch Man Utd, Liverpool etc and all the women would tune into X Factor giving ample time for the Brits to suppress us.

It sounds they have have already supressed us! But who cares, because Britains Got Talent!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gHvATmUsSg

Bill2673 · 12-05-2010 02:57PM

Is that true for all neutral countries, or just switzerland. (ps, Belgium isn't neutral, if that is what you are referring to).

It wasn't me! · 12-05-2010 03:03PM

Bill2673 wrote: »

Is that true for all neutral countries, or just switzerland. (ps, Belgium isn't neutral, if that is what you are referring to).

It's a generic pattern. If you're obliged to provide for your own defence because nobody else will bother to help you, then you need to spend a lot of time and money ensuring that you're capable of handling it yourself. Look at the Swedish air force for example.

Fukuyama · 12-05-2010 03:14PM

onemorechance wrote: »

Roughly £100,000 was donated by the Irish government to "Defence Committees" in Catholic areas and, according to historian Richard English, "there is now no doubt that some money did go from the Dublin government to the proto-Provisionals". (English, Richard (2003). Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA. Pan Books. pp. 119. ISBN 0-330-49388-4.)

Nope.

100,000 in Irish aid for field hospitals, taking in refugees and other costs. 50,000 of those other costs were used by Haughy and his cronies to import arms into Dublin which were supposedly for the DF but were heading to the IRA up North. They never made it as it was discovered in what would become the arms crisis.
I imagine some money was skimmed off the top my people up north and was used wrongfully while it should have gone to assisting the communities. Not enough to warrent a security threat as it wasnt as if our government wer handing the IRA a blank cheque.

onemorechance · 12-05-2010 03:34PM

Attempting to arm the IRA is not a security threat!

Could we hold our own against an invasion...ever?

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