Could we hold our own against an invasion...ever?

GHOST MGG2

sure we cant even repel the swine flu for fecks sake:-)
never mind a foreign invader

LookBehindYou

We were invaded already, Nigerians were paid to invade us by our own government.




now wait for the pc brigade.

Manic Moran

there's an element of self-deception in this thinking - the idea of 'organised insurgency' only has any relevency in the most unlikely possible scenario (that of a complete territorial invasion and long-lasting take-over), but in the realms of more realistic scenario's it is of no use whatsoever.

This man speaks the truth. Guerilla warfare is only going to work in occupied territory. A limited conventional invasion will require a conventional force to push it back out. Ireland is theoretically capable of fielding a force sufficient do deal with a limited attack, but currently does not.

Also, let's say something like your scenario did happen. A small force takes over shannon airpot ... The Irish army would surely resist this fiercly with support from the population.

I'm sorry but the scenario you suggested couldn't last long and would either end in

a) NATO withdraw within a few weeks because of resistance

or (more likely)

b) they're forced to pour more resources into Shannon and continually spread out their area of control to both combat the resistance and to secure the surrounding counties.

Why? There could be a force 5,000 strong in Cork, if they leave Shannon alone, what harm can they do?

The attacker just needs to hold Shannon, an area a few miles around it, and, to a looser extent, the area a few miles beyond that. As long as the airfield isn't being attacked, what is attacking the odd patrol going to do?

And if they do have a large air force, what a waste of money. No wonder the their govt was bankrupted (almost) in the 1990s.

Three of these...


And 17 of these.


Of course, they didn't pay full price on them.

Is that true for all neutral countries, or just switzerland. (ps, Belgium isn't neutral, if that is what you are referring to).

The notable neutral countries in Europe were Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, Yugoslavia, Holy See, and Ireland. With the Holy See being a bit of a special case, the other nations (bar Ireland) had/have hefty militaries.

The smallest militaries tend to be those of countries which are part of alliances, such as Iceland and Luxembourg.

NTM

Locust

The attacker just needs to initially bomb our DF bases, then missile strike our electricity stations, gas supply, water treatment simultaneously overnight and leave us for a few months and we're stuffed.

We can be taken out quite easily as a nation at the present time by a fictitious neighboring enemy- what is the attackers objective?
As mentioned if its to strike at the UK via the back door - They just need to hold an Airport or a base or two no point in total occupation.
God forbid a chemical/bio attack we'd all be goneski.

For total occupation/war our problem would be supplies/logistics. ARW need to be supplied and transported. Nearly all our stuff is imported. A simple naval embargo would scale down the DF's capabilities quite quickly.

old_aussie

NO.

Blitzkrieg, it would be all over for Ireland in 24 hours.

All airfields and sea ports bombed.

Electricity knocked out.

Irish attack a few enemy patrols, enemy retaliates by wiping out an entire town to teach Irish a lesson.

Who would come to the rescue of the Irish?

English say Irish hate us so feckem, USA says Irish always put ****e on us, so feckem.

China just laughs.

NATO says we're busy elsewhere with other more important problems and just ignores Ireland, as Irish people don't want to support NATO when needed.

DylanJM

Who would come to the rescue of the Irish?

English say Irish hate us so feckem

Do you think England would be happy having Ireland occupied by a hostile forces when part of the UK sits on our island?

OS119

DylanJM wrote: »

Do you think England would be happy having Ireland occupied by a hostile forces when part of the UK sits on our island?

i think the UK would be very unhappy with the idea of any unfriendly party having either significant land forces in the RoI, or having any maritime assets (Submarines, Mine-laying vessels, Maritime patrol/Anti-Shipping/Anti-Submarine aircraft et...) based on Irish territory, but i think the UK, and indeed the rest of NATO would be very happy to have friendly maritime/air space forces on the west coast of the RoI - those forces being of the RoI would be the best option, though they'd not say no to a NATO-RoI agreement to base NATO ASW/AD assets in the RoI should both parties feel that was appropriate...

the question is perhaps the UK/NATO attitude were the Atlantic to be again the vital battlespace that it has been in the last two European wars - i somehow doubt that there has been a single senior European or American naval officer in the last 100 years who hasn't thought how useful it would be to be able to base maritime patrol/ASW aircraft on the west coast of Ireland and to be able to refuel and replenish his ships at Galway...

SlabMurphy

Dean0088 wrote: »

Hey Guys,

Been doing a lot of research into Irish history and many thanks to those who replied to my other thread asking for good sourses on the Provos.

Anyways, I've read up in detail about the whole wishy washy "we cannot stand by" possible invasion of border areas by the Irish army during the battle of the bogside in '69 which is no widely regarded as a laughable plan which would have led to the slaughter of the troops involved and the bombing and further slaughter of the South should the DF have fought back.

And it got me thinking, in the year 2010, could the DF ever hold their own or at the very least fight back to an extent that we're not a complete push over?

We share a border with Britain so it's not inconceivable that in the future we might fall out (I dont want to talk about why because this thread will spiral into the usual nonsense). So if Britain, or any other country, were to launch an invasion against us do we stand a chance?

I think the general (however misinformed) attitude towards the army is "ohhh....THE ARMY!! lol" but I do know Irish troops are quite well trained and well equipped infantry-wise.

Could we win on home soil? Or would Dublin be occupied within hours or days and us left as a laughing stock?

An invasion form whom ? Ok, I understand your just having a bit of a harmless discussion, but in reality, who or why would anyone be bothered. I'd doubt if the Taliban or North Korea are going to have a sea and air bourne invasion of us. As to your question, well a small country like Ireland would have about as much chance as Belgium if the French invaded or Denmark if the Germans invaded, though doubtless we'd do much better than Belgium or Denmark with a guerilla campaign as the expertise already exits

As for the August 1969 situation, your talking about the "If Lynch had invaded the North sh!te" on RTE. Typical tripe from RTE as usual, the whole agenda of the programme and it’s conclusions would be the worst case scenario for nationalist Ireland. I mean if the Brits could have launched a wholesale carpet bombing on both sides of the border, - why didn't they do it during the troubles ? How come guys like my user name Slab Murphy and co. could bomb and shoot Brits at will - and then the following day drive around in a tractor or even ring up the Brits or RUC from a pub on the south side of the border to taunt them about it ? Why could the IRA turned large parts of West Belfast & Derry into no go areas for the Brits between 1970 and 72, South Armagh the same for almost 25 years - no mass bombings there ?

The REAL reason why Lynch didn't invade - because the Gombeen men in the 26 govt didn't want this as it would have disturbed their cosy, corrupt, conservative, catholic set-up, and didn't want their cosy little state been distrubed in anyway. These quisling bast@rds have absolutely not the slightest care or concern for the ordinary people of Ireland, we seen it in 1969 and we are now seeing it again with NAMA etc as they ditch the country so to protect themselves and their corrupt cronies at the expense of everyone else :mad:.

Manach

Given that Ireland's last military conflict on the island was a civil war - it might be appropriate to ask what lessons had been learnt from that, if the hypothetical invading power were non-state sponsored irregulars.

johngalway

If "a force" with the capability to seize Shannon and blockade the entire island did do such a thing, it makes me wonder why people think the Defence Forces could shift them. Surely such a force would have the assets and technology available to find and destroy any meaningful Irish force before they could finish their breakfasts.

SlabMurphy

onemorechance wrote: »

No need to worry about an invasion, we are now great friends with the British and if any other country tried to invade, the best army in the the world is right next door, ready to help us out!

" the best army in the the world is right next door " How many wars has the best army in the world won on it's own since, say WW2 ? ( where they got hammered until the Soviets and Americans joined in ). Let me see......... the Falklands :eek: Where they fought over two bits of rock against part time conscripts.

SlabMurphy

Manach wrote: »

Given that Ireland's last military conflict on the island was a civil war - it might be appropriate to ask what lessons had been learnt from that, if the hypothetical invading power were non-state sponsored irregulars.

1969 - 1994 in the six counties wasn't a " military conflict " ?

Manach

Offhand, they had favourable results in counter-insurgency operations in Yeman, Malaysia and Sierra Lorne? The bulk of the UK forces would have been stationed in Western Germany during the Cold War, so they'd have limited in their responses.

Manach

SlabMurphy wrote: »

1969 - 1994 in the six counties wasn't a " military conflict " ?

Fair point. I was thinking only of the 26 counties.

It wasn't me!

Politics aside, it really is laughable to deny that British infantry units are superbly capable soldiers. If Slabmurphy wants to do that, it's just displaying an extremely blinkered view of things. You don't have to like thm to respect them.

SlabMurphy

It wasn't me! wrote: »

Politics aside, it really is laughable to deny that British infantry units are superbly capable soldiers. If Slabmurphy wants to do that, it's just displaying an extremely blinkered view of things. You don't have to like thm to respect them.

Saying their capable and saying their the best in the world are two very different things.

cyrusdvirus

Lads, it already happened....i think there's a thread in Walter Mitty about a novel called Dark Rose..... read it and weep...

It wasn't me!

SlabMurphy wrote: »

Saying their capable and saying their the best in the world are two very different things.

Personal opinion then really, isn't it?

troubleshooter

SlabMurphy wrote: »

An invasion form whom ? Ok, I understand your just having a bit of a harmless discussion, but in reality, who or why would anyone be bothered. I'd doubt if the Taliban or North Korea are going to have a sea and air bourne invasion of us. As to your question, well a small country like Ireland would have about as much chance as Belgium if the French invaded or Denmark if the Germans invaded, though doubtless we'd do much better than Belgium or Denmark with a guerilla campaign as the expertise already exits

As for the August 1969 situation, your talking about the "If Lynch had invaded the North sh!te" on RTE. Typical tripe from RTE as usual, the whole agenda of the programme and it’s conclusions would be the worst case scenario for nationalist Ireland. I mean if the Brits could have launched a wholesale carpet bombing on both sides of the border, - why didn't they do it during the troubles ? How come guys like my user name Slab Murphy and co. could bomb and shoot Brits at will - and then the following day drive around in a tractor or even ring up the Brits or RUC from a pub on the south side of the border to taunt them about it ? Why could the IRA turned large parts of West Belfast & Derry into no go areas for the Brits between 1970 and 72, South Armagh the same for almost 25 years - no mass bombings there ?

The REAL reason why Lynch didn't invade - because the Gombeen men in the 26 govt didn't want this as it would have disturbed their cosy, corrupt, conservative, catholic set-up, and didn't want their cosy little state been distrubed in anyway. These quisling bast@rds have absolutely not the slightest care or concern for the ordinary people of Ireland, we seen it in 1969 and we are now seeing it again with NAMA etc as they ditch the country so to protect themselves and their corrupt cronies at the expense of everyone else :mad:.

South Armagh was not a no go area. This is BS. The army had more troops in South Armagh then any other part of the north.

As for carpet bombing the border, you are clearly off your head.

I think you need to ask yourself why only 9 South Armagh members were killed by the British army(south Fermanagh had 53 PIRA members killed) and why Slab was arrested and not shot dead by the SAS even though he was in possession of weapon and allowed to take the pee like he did........you obviously get your knowledge from the papers.

DylanJM

the question is perhaps the UK/NATO attitude were the Atlantic to be again the vital battlespace

OK so if we talking about NATO using Ireland a major base due to a large scale conflict I don't really see the problem. The way I see it is, in a conflict of that size it ould be in our best interests to let NATO set up a base on the west coast.

troubleshooter

SlabMurphy wrote: »

Saying their capable and saying their the best in the world are two very different things.

British army SOF intel. undercover units are the best in the world in that field, ie the SRR, CRW wing of the SAS, from years of experience in NI and the ME. They're the most experienced units. The SAS has been deployed in combat nearly continually since the 1950s.

Paras, yep put them up against any Para unit in the world, even 2rep FFL is nicknamed 2 Para due to the number of ex Parachute regiment NCOs.

Royal Marines, yep, feel confident putting them up against other marine units. Mountain leader cadre, same.

Infantry, yep, put them up against French, Germans, Americans etc in terms to training and operational experience.

Royal Enginners, once against vast experience from NI, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

If theyre so bad, it does not bode well for the PIRA after all the BA defeated them.

troubleshooter

OS119 wrote: »

i think the UK would be very unhappy with the idea of any unfriendly party having either significant land forces in the RoI, or having any maritime assets (Submarines, Mine-laying vessels, Maritime patrol/Anti-Shipping/Anti-Submarine aircraft et...) based on Irish territory, but i think the UK, and indeed the rest of NATO would be very happy to have friendly maritime/air space forces on the west coast of the RoI - those forces being of the RoI would be the best option, though they'd not say no to a NATO-RoI agreement to base NATO ASW/AD assets in the RoI should both parties feel that was appropriate...

the question is perhaps the UK/NATO attitude were the Atlantic to be again the vital battlespace that it has been in the last two European wars - i somehow doubt that there has been a single senior European or American naval officer in the last 100 years who hasn't thought how useful it would be to be able to base maritime patrol/ASW aircraft on the west coast of Ireland and to be able to refuel and replenish his ships at Galway...

Ireland exposes NATOs western flank, Im sure there are/were plans to counter a Soviet invasion during the cold war.

I once read an article on Irelands geo strategic importance from a NATO perspective, written by a British Admiral, it heavily focussed on what British withdrawl from the north would mean in terms of the stability of the island from both internal and external threats.

SlabMurphy

It wasn't me! wrote: »

Personal opinion then really, isn't it?

Well, I'm Slab Murphy, I should know shouldn't I

Carlos_Ray

We'd stand no chance in a conventional war obviously. Britain has nearly 60 million people and an established military. We are a tiny neutral country with no real armed forces.

Its already been mentioned, an invasion would be met with guerilla tactics, and perhaps terrorists attacks in British cities. It'd be the only way to force the troops out.

It'll never happen though, they could do more damage to us by enforcing economic sanctions, which I expect they would opt for. They'd also need permission from Germany before they do anything, we are afterall just a state in a German controlled Europe.

SlabMurphy

troubleshooter wrote: »

British army SOF intel. undercover units are the best in the world in that field, ie the SRR, CRW wing of the SAS, from years of experience in NI and the ME. They're the most experienced units. The SAS has been deployed in combat nearly continually since the 1950s.

Paras, yep put them up against any Para unit in the world, even 2rep FFL is nicknamed 2 Para due to the number of ex Parachute regiment NCOs.

Royal Marines, yep, feel confident putting them up against other marine units. Mountain leader cadre, same.

Infantry, yep, put them up against French, Germans, Americans etc in terms to training and operational experience.

Royal Enginners, once against vast experience from NI, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

Ok, we're getting off topic discussing if the Brits are the best army in the world :rolleyes: which was introduced by onemorechance in post #15.

The Brits are always f**king gobbing about been " the best in the world " as if their was a world military conference to decide who was the best army in the world and the Brits won it hands down :rolleyes: Ok it's back in 1939 but they had most of the above forces and doubtless they were gobbing they were " the best army in the world " but they soon found out that one at Dunkirk, Norway, Signgapore etc And before that in WW1, they were claiming they'd be home before Xmas et, etc,etc

If theyre so bad, it does not bode well for the PIRA after all the BA defeated them.

Army paper says IRA not defeated. It describes the IRA as "a professional, dedicated, highly skilled and resilient force", while loyalist paramilitaries and other republican groups are described as "little more than a collection of gangsters".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/6276416.stm

And here's Tony Blair saying it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHKFzPmDjAo

SlabMurphy

Carlos_Ray wrote: »

We'd stand no chance in a conventional war obviously. Britain has nearly 60 million people and an established military. We are a tiny neutral country with no real armed forces.

Its already been mentioned, an invasion would be met with guerilla tactics, and perhaps terrorists attacks in British cities. It'd be the only way to force the troops out.

It'll never happen though, they could do more damage to us by enforcing economic sanctions, which I expect they would opt for. They'd also need permission from Germany before they do anything, we are afterall just a state in a German controlled Europe.

I'd agree in part with you there, but they wouldn't even think about sanctions, we're part of the EU ( though I wouldn't deny the power of the German and French in it but that's more of a political/economic discussion ). The days when Britain could throw it's weight around the globe are long, long gone thank God - as much as some around here wish it wasn't :rolleyes:. Look at the last time they tried to throw their weight around, the Suez Crisis way back in 1956 which turned into a fiasco.

airvan

There is no realistic scenario where Britain would invade us. Unless Britain was taken over by some expansionist Dictator of some sort eager to reclaim the former empire.

A more realistic scenario would be one where Britain was under attack or indeed occupied by a foreign power or powers. In that situation they would not be in a position to step in. Because in reality our lack of defences is neither here nor there with Britain and indeed France effectively providing a bulwark against invasion.

In fact WW2 provides the example. Germany could have invaded and occupied us in days if the British hadn't been there in the way. As it happens Hitler had no real interest in invading Ireland or indeed Britain. He would have preferred peace, leaving him with a free hand on the continent.

But if Britain had fallen an invasion would have been possible. I suspect though it might have been more like the invasion of Denmark than Poland. We'd have become a puppet state. Resistance would be futile, to coin a phrase. We would have been absorbed.

Talk of guerrila warfare assumes the reaction of the occupying power will be similar to the British. They with exceptions didn't go in for the excesses that were indulged by the Nazis or indeed the Russians.

Comparisons with the Taliban or Vietnamese etc are not valid. All of those had porous borders and their enemies are liberal democracies. We are an island, a small island. A despotic occupying power would have no qualms about taking and shooting hostages, rounding up and hanging suspects. Wiping out towns and villages. With no outside support any resistance would be suppressed very quickly. A puppet government would be quickly in place and a puppet army and police force.

A good example would be the fates of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia. They simply vanished as countries for a long time. With no outside support they simply had no option but to go along with the Russians. The same with most of Eastern Europe after the war. There was little in the way of internal resistance because it was suppressed completely.

So, in my opinion any invader would simply announce to us that they were coming. If we demurred a demonstration could be arranged. Air attack or ships offshore shelling the capital. Then after a bit of negotiation the enemy could simply arrive by ship or plane to be met by a sullen and helpless populace. A bit like Czechslovakia in 1938.

It would all over in a weekend.:(

Avgas

Much of this thread seems to be side tracked into a spot of Brit bashing.....

However, let us assume the question is semi-serious.

The answer is immediately NO. And after pause and reflection.... it is still NO.

Guerrilla warfare and urban terrorism may have sort of worked in 1920.....but it would not really work in a wider strategic context....for the Irish state.

There was an article in An Cosantoir in the 1980s.,....'the flying column war as a defensive option' was the title. I forget the author....reasonably good.....basic point he made was that night vision, ISR assets, and helicopters had changed the game quite a bit....Irish countryside is fairly open...we're one of the least forested countries in Europe.....running around boreens with the 'boyos' wouldn't cut it.

And as Manic has already pointed out NATO would have been, during the Cold War, v. interested in Shannon (and perhaps Cork airport and Harbour).

We would have been diplomatically 'invited' to Join NATO or at least to permit overflights/use of Shannon. I'd say the odds would be that any government we had then would have agreed. No invasion needed.

If we refused and they really wanted them...they'd seize key points (basically the airports..maybe a port or ports)....and simply hold a perimeter around key zones......not a whole lot guerrillas could do....

Perhaps if some of the chaps Slab seems to be so fond of, decided to try and drive a Mark 16 improvised mortar up to the gates of a NATO occupied Shannon, in a full war time setting with v. different ROEs, it would be interesting to see what would happen...but I bet it would not be pretty.....

If for whatever reason, Russian forces had taken Norway and maybe 'denied' Iceland (by tactical nuclear strike), and if there were reversals on the central front...then NATO might have been interested in securing Ireland... as a staging point for the fight back in the North Sea/Baltic and for the central front.... and it would help for staging ASW assets in the North Atlantic.... but by most scenarios the entire thing would have not gone that far....or escalated much higher.....and to be honest much of what they need geographically Scotland can supply.....of course if Scotland became independent and neutral to boot...:eek: [NOT LIKELY IMHO]

Now ....here's the funny thing......if NATO turned Shannon, either by our consent or by brute force, into a de facto NATO airbase.....that would have presented the Russians with a unique target for a tactical nuclear strike....attacking Shannon would have been a great 'escalation warning'....because technically you'd not be attacking a full NATO member....although you would be attacking NATO forces....obviously you'd expect a response in retaliation....but the point would be to deliver a non-fatal warning...it would be a signal in particular for the French and British...'your' next.......and therefore open negotiations......

And...the point often missed is that any wider war that would suck Ireland into it...would be part of the North Atlantic theatre...it would be an extension of chiefly a naval/air battle for supremacy.....it was and remains highly likely the nuclear ordnance would be used first at sea....before tactical land use.....and this could have happened near us.......

Damaged Russian nuclear subs seeking sanctuary in Irish waters anyone?

No thanks!

To defend ourselves in the context of a wider North Atlantic/European war that now seems only a historical bad dream, but in fact has not entirely disappeared as a long shot, our focus should be....

either on (a) quick entry to NATO, or EU alliance that more or less offers an 'umbrella'.....

and if not.....

(b) we need to increase defence spending now and above all change our DF to have baseline credible naval, air and CBRN defence capabilities of some sort.......but even then it would be v. iffy......

So rather than think guerrillas...think CBRN specialists, think anti-ship and ASW weapons....think long range patrol aircraft...think more and better MANPADS.......

Its not the 'boys of Kilmichael' we'd be needing if things got really really really bad.

iceage

Avgas wrote: »

The answer is immediately NO. And after pause and reflection.... it is still NO.

Direct, concise and to the point. Correct.

Morpheus

no it wasnt a military conflict, it was a large scale anti-terrorist operation. and a lot was learned from it, particularly in the areas of EOD, intelligence gathering and counter insurrgency operations.