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Budget 2010 - Infrastructure Thread

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  • #2
    Bards
    Registered Users Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Bards


    Media are suggesting that €1B will be cut from the Capital Budget


  • #3
    Irish and Proud
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    Instead of things cropping up in individual threads, I thought a good central thread for discussing the implications of the budget to be announced would be good.

    Well there be investments in energy infrastructure, will the government continue to delay a decision on Metro North and Interconnector, what flood relief measures will be included etc.

    I suppose, we'll find out. :(

    Great idea mate!!! :)

    Well my guess is that the Interconnecter and Metro North are in the bag, unless the Greens are booted. However, if the Greens go, so will FF, so I guess the FG/Lab coalition would insist on at least one of the above projects getting done - and if only one goes ahead, they would probably push ahead with the Lucan LUAS, plus a LUAS line to Finglas. Basically no matter what, public transport in Dublin is facing a bright future (unless the IMF is called in that is)!

    As for roads, I think the next fives years look bleak - apart from the M11 and M18 motorways... :( Maybe a few smaller but critical schemes would go ahead such as the N25 CSRR Upgrade, N22 Macroom Bypass, N5 Longford Bypass, N4 Carrick-on-Shannon Ring, Galway Outer Ring etc.

    We'll find out after today...

    Regards!


  • #4
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    My prediction is that Lenihan will blatantly announce an outline €6.6bn Capital spend.

    He will reduce that immediately by the €750m announced in the April budget

    Finally he will reduce that amount by a further €1bn and the eventual capital budget will be in the order of €4.9-€5.1Bn when the smoke clears...not that all of it will be spent as Batt O Keefe will tell you.

    Out of that €5bn they will have to pay out anyway for lots of roads contracts in 2010 including large schemes like the M50 M3 M6 M7 M8 anjd M9 together with land acquisition costs ( if any) for 1 or maybe 2 PPP sections together with certain Land Acquisition outpayments not yet made.

    The only interesting aspect could be an allocation for land acquisition for Metro N, Interconnector will not start before 2011 in any form. If there is no announcement on MN and funding for Land Acquisition then Metro N cannot start until well into 2011 earliest. Follow that money people!

    Because Dempsey cancelled everything in December 2008 before allowing Castleisland and the PPP sections to go ahead later on it would seem that we have to wait until the January NRA allocation before we find out what shystering Dempsey inevitably gets up to in 2010.

    The most interesting component of the 2010 allocation will be the Regional Roads allocation which will go to the NRA for the first time. My bet is that the Regional Road allocation will not be announced until March and the Local road allocation ( to county councils) in April or May.

    That is my budget prediction.


  • #5
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    In other words, no or little chance of new starts in 2010.

    But I'm interested to see what is kept ticking through the planning process. We'll still be criticially short of money in 2011, but there'll be enough for one or two significant starts at least - this budget, will more-or-less decide what those starts will be.


  • #6
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Planning is cheap but actually doing anything is what costs money. Lets see what the result of the 94 project icing deal in the new programme for government turns out to look like ...we will see that by January.


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  • #7
    medoc
    Registered Users Posts: 966 ✭✭✭medoc


    Just a quick question. If we are borrowing €400M per week at the moment just for day to day spending ( I know it cant conntinue like that). What would it cost in total for 1 major scheme eg M20 or M17/18. Would it make sence to borrow what would be only an extra few weeks money and spend it in one project. It would benifit the local and national ecomemy with tax and vat etc. Save money for business with less tiome lost in delays. Use the expertise gained in the other major projects. Farmers who get money for CPO land usually invest some of that in buildings and equipment etc. Not to mention lives and money saved in fatal and non fatal crashes. Would it make sence to say borrow now and build the M20 (or any other project) and what would it really cost taking into account the benifits.


  • #8
    Bards
    Registered Users Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Bards


    yes, Govt Capital Spending should be anti-cyclic in that you should spend big in a recession on Capital items to increase economic activity and reduce during boom times to avoid over inflating the economy

    In Ireland we seem to spend during boom years and reduce during recessions resulting in infrastructure costing way more than it should


  • #9
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Currently listening to his Lenihan's drivel about "working together" with the usual buzzphrases.

    It was commented capital spending would be €6.4 billion, but we'll see what comes of all this.


  • #10
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Main Budget Thread is here


  • #11
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Here is the summary of public capital programmes.

    http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/Summary.aspx

    Expenditure Break-down:

    http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/Documents/Estimates%20Book%202010.pdf


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  • #12
    marmurr1916
    Registered Users Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭marmurr1916


    Extract from budget report:
    http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2010/Documents/Annexes%20to%20the%20Summary%20of%20Budget%20Measures%20Final.pdf
    Transport
    €2.1 billion will be available. €1.1billion will be used by the NRA for the completion in 2010 of the major-inter-urban roads (connecting Dublin with Cork, Waterford, Limerick and Galway), the completion of the M50 upgrade and the progression of other key national routes, including elements of the Atlantic Corridor. €300m will be allocated for the upgrade and maintenance of regional and local roads. €625m will be provided for key public transport projects such as the Luas extension to Cherrywood, the continuation of bus priority measures in Dublin and regional cities, the opening of Phase 1 of the Western Rail Corridor, the completion of the Kildare Route project and Phase 1of the Navan Line (to Pace), continuing investment in rail safety and planning and enabling works on the Metro North, planning on the DART Underground and €25m for new initiatives in support of Smarter Travel.


  • #13
    marmurr1916
    Registered Users Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭marmurr1916


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    Currently listening to his Lenihan's drivel about "working together" with the usual buzzphrases.

    It was commented capital spending would be €6.4 billion, but we'll see what comes of all this.

    It's going to be €6.445 billion, a cut of €961 million.
    Overall Capital Programme in 2010
    €6.445bn will be invested in 2010, some 5% of GNP, one of the biggest investment programmes in the EU. This will be supplemented by €126m in allocations carried over from 2009. Taking account of asset disposals, the allocation represents €961m in savings towards the Government’s overall target.

    The significant drop in construction tender prices means that a very substantial output can be secured from a reduced allocation. Key priorities for capital investment will be the promotion of the Smart/Green Economy (particularly through STI investment and energy efficiency measures), the support of sustainable long-term employment (particularly through investment in enterprise) and funding immediate employment (in areas like schools, domestic energy efficiency and enhancing our local and regional tourism infrastructure).

    And this:
    Transport
    Savings have been identified arising from the planned implementation of various efficiency programmes across the Transport Sector and also from reductions in some expenditure programmes. The savings will arise mostly from the CIE companies and the Department of Transport’s administrative efficiencies and the reductions in expenditure mostly from a 10% cut in road maintenance.


  • #14
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    OK lets see what €1.1 BN for roads might do. This must pay ALL outstanding amounts on the following:

    3 N9 projects costing €1bn
    1 N6 project at €500m
    2 M7 projects at €1bn
    1 M3 project costing €600m
    1 M8/M9 project at around €400m
    1 M50 project costing €1bn

    €4.5bn worth of projects under way, the M50 with full shadow tolling meaning a multi annual commitment.

    I would say the cash is well spent without starting any further projects in 2010 which we know they won't bar the M17/M18 .....maybe....

    Now look at the ONGOING ( not one off ) PPP commitments for the M50 and M3 and add the 2:1 Road Public Transport ratio from 2011 into el mix.

    The public transport spend in 2010 will be €645m and most likely the same in 2011. There is no land acquisition funding in there for MN or for Interconnector either.

    That means the road spend in 2011 will be €322m and that the M18 and the Castleisland Bypass must be paid for out of that together with the M50 PPP paymenst due every year until around 2040 and any M3 shortfall :(

    Once these are accounted for then only €100m will be available for new projects/land acquisition in 2011. I really cannot see how they will start more than 1 PPP in 2010 and 2011 given that constraint and if the Public Transport spend stays around €645m the Road fund will be increasingly constrained year by year with PPP commitments.

    It is only a matter of time before Dempsey pulls the plug on New Ross/Enniscorthy and like he slyly did on the M20 .


  • #15
    mysterious
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭mysterious


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    OK lets see what €1.1 BN for roads might do. This must pay ALL outstanding amounts on the following:

    3 N9 projects costing €1bn
    1 N6 project at €500m
    2 M7 projects at €1bn
    1 M3 project costing €600m
    1 M8/M9 project at around €400m
    1 M50 project costing €1bn

    €4.5bn worth of projects under way, the M50 with full shadow tolling meaning a multi annual commitment.

    I would say the cash is well spent without starting any further projects in 2010 which we know they won't bar the M17/M18 .....maybe....

    Now look at the ONGOING ( not one off ) PPP commitments for the M50 and M3 and add the 2:1 Road Public Transport ratio from 2011 into el mix.

    The public transport spend in 2010 will be €645m and most likely the same in 2011. There is no land acquisition funding in there for MN or for Interconnector either.

    That means the road spend in 2011 will be €322m and that the M18 and the Castleisland Bypass must be paid for out of that together with the M50 PPP paymenst due every year until around 2040 and any M3 shortfall :(

    Once these are accounted for then only €100m will be available for new projects/land acquisition in 2011. I really cannot see how they will start more than 1 PPP in 2010 and 2011 given that constraint and if the Public Transport spend stays around €645m the Road fund will be increasingly constrained year by year with PPP commitments.

    It is only a matter of time before Dempsey pulls the plug on New Ross/Enniscorthy and like he slyly did on the M20 .


    M20 would be going before N11 I can assure you. The N20 was put on hold until the inter urbans were finished. Phase 1 of the M20 and Phase 2 of M18/M17 would be the first to go ahead.


  • #16
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    mysterious wrote: »
    M20 would be going before N11 I can assure you. The N20 was put on hold until the inter urbans were finished. Phase 1 of the M20 and Phase 2 of M18/M17 would be the first to go ahead.

    Eehhhm umm .......I don't understand what you mean at all but don't try to explain it to me m'kay :(


  • #17
    Chris_533976
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭Chris_533976


    At least they still seem completely committed to Metro North and the IC. Those are more important than any of the roads, much as I'd like to see the road network improved further.

    Also, they say the NRA are thinking about a third tranche of PPPs.


  • #18
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    We have some more clarity. I made a mistake in thinking that the PPP funds are accounted for under Capital, they are a separate heading.

    Anyway Dempsey found a few more €100s of millions to blow out of his arse and released this statement just now.

    http://www.transport.ie/pressRelease.aspx?Id=149

    He has not cancelled the New Ross/Enniscorthy PPP ...for now. I have bolded the future priorities bit.
    Roads €1,637million

    The 2010 provision for the improvement and maintenance of roads is €1.637billion, €280.5million (14.6%) down on the revised 2009 allocation. The details are as follows:

    The 2010 capital provision for national roads is €1.115 billion, €287 million (or 20 %) down on 2009. This allocation will fund the very high level of contractual commitments to complete the five major inter- urban motorways and the M50 upgrade in 2010. Major projects expected to be completed in 2010 include:

    M3 Clonee – North of Kells
    N7 Nenagh – Limerick
    N7 Limerick Tunnel
    M7 Castletown – Nenagh
    M7/M8 Portlaoise – Cullahill/Castletown
    N9 Waterford – Knocktopher
    N9 Carlow – Knocktopher
    M9 Kilcullen – Carlow
    M50 Upgrade Phase 2
    Motorway service areas (Tranche 1)

    By the end of 2010 we will have completed some 750 km of motorway linking Dublin with the principal cities in the country, reducing journey times, increasing the reliability of journeys and improving road safety. This is a major achievement and reflects great credit on the NRA, local authorities, contractors and consultants. Over €2 billion of private funding has been raised to part fund the investment.

    The future priorities for national road investment will be:

    • to implement a number of new PPP projects, principally on the Atlantic Road Corridor and the N11,
    • to protect the existing investment in national roads, especially national secondaries.

    The 2010 provision for the maintenance and improvement of regional and local roads will be €411million, down € 35 million (8%) in line with the McCarthy recommendations. This funding will be used almost exclusively to maintain the fabric of the extensive network of some 90,000 kilometres.

    and
    PPP Operational Payments

    This is the only area of expenditure showing a significant increase of €43.4 million in 2010. The funding is used to make annual payments to remunerate PPP financing for road projects where the private investment is not remunerated by tolls. The expenditure involved will increase in 2010 as more road PPP projects are implemented.

    That means paying the M50 shadow toll and M3 traffic shortfall and the M7 Limerick Nenagh outpayments for now. The rest of the PPPs are tolled.

    But it is a new heading and not part of the Capital budget or subject to the 2:1 expenditure ratio.
    National Roads PPPs 2010

    In Construction
    M3 Clonee – North of Kells
    N7 Nenagh Limerick
    N7 Limerick Tunnel
    M7/M8 Portlaise-Culahill/Castletown
    M50 Upgare Phase 2
    M1 & M4 Motorway Service Areas (Tranche 1)

    and what is still alive ??? Not the M20 anyway but the Galway bypass and New Ross/Enniscorthy are as well as the ones tendered out already.
    In Preparation
    N17/18 Gort to Tuam At tender stage

    N11 Arklow to Rathnew
    (including Newlands Cross) At pre-qualification stage

    M11 Gorey to Enniscorthy/ Pre-qualification commencing early 2010
    N25 New Ross Bypass` (inclusion of New Ross Bypass dependent on outcome of judicial review)

    Galway City Outer Bypass Dependent on outcome of judicial review

    The NRA are also considering an additional bundle of PPP projects, and progress on these will be determined by availability of funding.


  • #19
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,609 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    mysterious wrote: »
    M20 would be going before N11 I can assure you. The N20 was put on hold until the inter urbans were finished. Phase 1 of the M20 and Phase 2 of M18/M17 would be the first to go ahead.

    There is not a hope in hell that any bit of the M20 will be first, or second, or indeed before Enniscorthy / New Ross. I know you're in a fantasy land, but in the real world the M20 is only mentioned in passing in PPP discussion, and is not mentioned *at all* in the DOTs statement on the budget.

    It is last on the list of PPPs, it will not happen any time soon.


  • #20
    mysterious
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭mysterious


    MYOB wrote: »
    There is not a hope in hell that any bit of the M20 will be first, or second, or indeed before Enniscorthy / New Ross. I know you're in a fantasy land, but in the real world the M20 is only mentioned in passing in PPP discussion, and is not mentioned *at all* in the DOTs statement on the budget.

    It is last on the list of PPPs, it will not happen any time soon.


    Said who?

    The N11 entire section can wait....


    The N20 has recieved no attention in recent years. The death toll is higher and the standard of road is shocking in comparison to the N11.

    Priority and common sense come first, not fantasy as I'd look to put back to you. The Mallow to Croom section is the worst national primary road in the country which handles 15,000 a day with a high amount of trucks using it. The Adare section carries traffic about 17,000 a day and is one of Irelands worst bottlenecks. The N20 has not just one but 3 bottlenecks on the route.


    Your living in complete fantasy, with your notions.


  • #21
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    mysterious wrote: »
    Said who?

    Budget 2010.


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  • #22
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,609 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    mysterious wrote: »
    Said who?

    The Government, today. The M20 is now completely absent from the list of projects to receive funding in planning.
    mysterious wrote: »
    Your living in complete fantasy, with your notions.

    I think you'll find I'm not.


  • #23
    mysterious
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭mysterious


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    Budget 2010.

    I didn't say it.


    It's my word against the government

    Who said I said they were government.


    This is now the real world and I raise the question.


  • #24
    mysterious
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭mysterious


    MYOB wrote: »
    The Government, today. The M20 is now completely absent from the list of projects to receive funding in planning.



    I think you'll find I'm not.

    Really if the government raised your taxes to a level you can't afford.


    Are you just going to sit there and agree/


    If the government raised their wages, are you just going to sit there and agree.


    I'm not some subordinate human being, who is at the mercy of a governmetn, leader, budget or anything related to Rome syndrome. Thats what I call been in reality.


  • #25
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    mysterious wrote: »
    This is now the real world and I raise the question.

    The reality is that the government have dumped the M20.

    Do I agree with that choice? No.

    I believe it should take priority over the M18/M17. But it hasn't. We can debate whether that was correct or not, but that's the unfortunate reality of the situation.

    Unless you mean "real world" in another sense. :confused:


  • #26
    mysterious
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭mysterious


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    The reality is that the government have dumped the M20.

    Do I agree with that choice? No.

    I believe it should take priority over the M18/M17. But it hasn't. We can debate whether that was correct or not, but that's the unfortunate reality of the situation.

    Unless you mean "real world" in another sense. :confused:

    The real world is we give our power away, and your doing it all the time.


    Its what they say and we follow, to the point of insulting our own power. We the people dont have to agree with the government. This is a thing people need to start realising. I really think its time we really give ourselves a good kick up the arse and wake the fup up. As to how we are treating ourselves and exactly why the governments can be as corrupt as they want.


    Because we allow them to do whatever they like. Even if it's our money. I think the T.Ds wages should be cut by 60percent not 15percent. Since the unemployment rate has doubled. I said it? Is the taiseach the decider of what we do and say in our lives. I think not.


  • #27
    Highly Salami
    Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭Highly Salami


    mysterious wrote: »
    I didn't say it.


    It's my word against the government

    Who said I said they were government.


    This is now the real world and I raise the question.

    Mysterious, what exactly does this mean?


  • #28
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    mysterious wrote: »
    The real world is we give our power away, and your doing it all the time.


    Its what they say and we follow, to the point of insulting our own power. We the people dont have to agree with the government. This is a thing people need to start realising. I really think its time we really give ourselves a good kick up the arse and wake the fup up. As to how we are treating ourselves and exactly why the governments can be as corrupt as they want.


    Because we allow them to do whatever they like. Even if it's our money.

    People are sheep (and not very intelligent sheep at that), and they vote for corruption and greed, and yes I do believe people need to wake up and start voting properly, otherwise we'll continue to get treated like the collective morons we are.

    But that has NOTHING to do with the point in question. The point is the M20 is gone from the PPP list. Our elected representatives have chosen to shaft the M20. You can't claim that's not what people voted for, because as a nation we put people into power who made that decision on our behalf.

    Anyway, let's keep the political discussion down, obviously there's necessity for some political reflection given the nature of the topic, but it should relate back to infrastructure ultimately.


  • #29
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,609 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    mysterious has completely lost me with those last few rambles...


  • #30
    invincibleirish
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,219 ✭✭✭invincibleirish


    Seems crazy to keep the New Ross bypass in the Governments spending plans, is there something we are not seeing here? as in will the project be jettisoned for other reasons or by minsterial sleight of hand?.


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  • #31
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    MYOB wrote: »
    mysterious has completely lost me with those last few rambles...

    I told him not to try to explain it to me ....but he did :(


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