Add A Zero

cson · 11-10-2008 01:22AM #1

Reading Brian O'Connors book of the same name at the minute and decided why not have a go at it myself. So I've given myself a starting bank of €100 and the aim is to turn it into €1000 before Christmas which gives me exactly 10 weeks. So I'll have to be making €90 per week. :eek:

I know that some of you are going to laugh at me doing this but tbh win or lose it doesn't bother me so long as I get at least a few weeks done before the tank reaches zero! So I'd ask, if you've nothing positive (that includes constructive criticism) to contribute to the thread hold your counsel.

First of all;
The Rules
1. I'm sticking to what I have some grasp of here; Football, Rugby and Group/Listed Horse Racing are the markets that I'll be dabbling in.

2. I'll be using a points system as I find it adds more discipline to think of points rather than money. 1pt = 10% of bank at time of bet.

3. Max bets of 2pts/day or 20% of bank.

4. Doubles are the only multiple type bet allowed. The majority of bets will be singles.

5. Reasoning why the bets are placed must be given in the post. This will require me to do some research behind the bets.

Right, thats it, keeping it fairly simple with the rules.

The off is tomorrow, looking like international football matches are going to be the source of the first bet.

Number of bets:0
Winning bets:0
Strike Rate: 0%
Biggest Win:
Biggest Loss:
Bank:
Profit/Loss:

kryogen · 11-10-2008 12:29PM

best of luck with this

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 11-10-2008 01:07PM

yeah gl with it make sure the 10% rule does not turn into 50% when u hit a bad patch trying to catch it back up.

cson · 11-10-2008 01:11PM

Cheers lads.

Right, todays bets;

(a) 1pt Slovenia win @ 1/1

(b) 0.5pt Double
- Slovenia @ 1/1
- Portugal @ 11/8

(c) 0.5pt Double
- England (-3) @ 6/4
- Leinster (-7) @ 6/5

Reasoning;
(a) Northern Ireland do not travel well > they've not won a world cup qualifying game away from home in 7 years. Slovenia beat Slovakia on their last outing (who beat NI at home) and I think all the indicators are for a home win, therfore I think evens about a home win is excellent value.

(b) Portugal, theres a post by redfan in one of the international threads here that pretty much sums up how I feel about this match. Portugal are in a tricky group, have not started well and will be sorely needing the 3 points on offer tonight. See (a) for Slovenia.

(c) I do think England at home will take Borats countrymen to the cleaners tonight and a (-3) handicap bet at 6/4 offers some value if Walcott & Co. get flying. Edinburgh are going to bear the brunt of a Leinster backlash after the Connacht result and despite the place being a graveyard for Leinster of late, imo with Contepomi back at 10 they'll easily account for Edinburgh with the (-7) handicap @ 6/5 my pick.

mike65 · 11-10-2008 01:22PM

Good luck and all that...

Mike

Collie D · 11-10-2008 02:04PM

cson wrote: »

(a) 1pt Slovenia win @ 1/1

Reasoning;
(a) Northern Ireland do not travel well > they've not won a world cup qualifying game away from home in 7 years. Slovenia beat Slovakia on their last outing (who beat NI at home) and I think all the indicators are for a home win, therfore I think evens about a home win is excellent value.

Am on this myself. Think evens is a gift. Good luck

Trampas · 11-10-2008 07:19PM

cson wrote: »

(c) 0.5pt Double
- England (-3) @ 6/4
- Leinster (-7) @ 6/5

good start

england looked bad at 2-1

cson · 11-10-2008 07:26PM

Trampas wrote: »

good start

england looked bad at 2-1

Don't know how this bet came in, England looked dodgy given there was no score at ht and Leinster were poor against Edinburgh too.

Still, I'll take any luck thats going!

cson · 11-10-2008 09:45PM

Slovenia got two late goals to win the main bet of the day for us. It would have been an even better start but Portugal only managed to draw in Sweden. The other handicap double of England and Leinster came up somehow.

Number of bets:3
Winning bets:2
Strike Rate: 66%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €127.50
Profit/Loss: + €27.50 (+27.5%)

Promising start

AdrianII · 11-10-2008 11:26PM

i saw this post earlier on and im tring to do the same myself

started with 30 euro in the bank, won on a certain horse last weekend - brought me up to 120. Put 70 on england v kaz (to be more than 4 goals) got 50 profit

170 - had 10 on N Ireland to lose
180 - have 20 on argentina v urg + 3.5 goals Currently 2-1 hope to have 200 by the end of tonight.

Im using betfair for the record

good luck with adventure

mike65 · 12-10-2008 01:43PM

Did Brian O'Connor achive his aim?

Mike

cson · 12-10-2008 02:24PM

mike65 wrote: »

Did Brian O'Connor achive his aim?

Mike

Tell ya when I finish the book.

He was trying €5000 to €50,000!

Currently assessing todays bets, looking at the big races in Limerick today particularly the Munster National, also Brazil - Venezuela handicap and Toulouse and Saracens on the handicap in Rugby.

cson · 12-10-2008 02:39PM

(a) Double - HC Rugby
Wasps (-19) @ 10/11
Toulouse (-9) @ 10/11
0.5 pt Double

(b) Wasps (-19) @ 10/11
0.5pt single

Still assessing the Munster National but its looking like Paul Nicholls Dear Villez is the answer.

cson · 12-10-2008 02:49PM

(c) 4.15 Limerick: Dear Villez
0.5pt Win @ 11/8

(d) Double
4.15 Limerick: Dear Villez @ 11/8
4.50 Limerick: Marodima @ 8/13
0.5pt Double

PAU · 12-10-2008 05:54PM

Best of luck with it m8.

Mellor · 12-10-2008 06:29PM

Good luck with this, cson

cson wrote: »

So I've given myself a starting bank of €100 and the aim is to turn it into €1000 before Christmas which gives me exactly 10 weeks. So I'll have to be making €90 per week. :eek:

A little encouragement, as you are betting a precent of your roll, and ideally, your roll will increase towards the end. The bet sizes and the profit will also jump,
as in, its will be easier to get from €900 to €1k, than from €100 to €200
So instead of setting a €90 per week target, consider it as, 20-30% per week

cson · 12-10-2008 08:55PM

Wasps, Toulouse and Marodima all let the side down today on what was a pretty bad day bar Dear Villez winning. I've learned one thing from it though, to stay clear of too many doubles, I'm adding a rule of a max of 1 double a day.

Number of bets:7
Winning bets:3
Strike Rate: 43%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €121.25
Profit/Loss: + €21.25 (+21.25%)

Thinking about backing Brazil on a handicap for the moment for half a point. It'll break the max bets/day rule and it seems like chasing but I had mentioned it already.

Edit: Backed Brazil (-1) @ 11/10, 0.5pt win.

AdrianII · 12-10-2008 09:35PM

i know this is against your rules

but you should have lumped on brazil - i threw 70 on there to be more that 2.5 goals, 50 quid richer after 30mins of football

i know lumping on games can be a bad idea sometimes but by placing small amounts on matches you will never reach 90 euro profit a week imo

snapplejacks · 12-10-2008 09:46PM

OP.

yes....stay away from trebles and upwards if you can.....
i started with bank of about 300 1 month ago, now sitting on 1200.

doing singles and occassional doubles...the bets i've lost are when i go trebles and more selections, and start getting a bit silly and greedy. I'm not sticking to any 10% rules....if i feel good about a bet i can put anything up to 30% or 40% on a selection.....

cson · 12-10-2008 09:50PM

I understand your point but it's not going too badly at the moment, Brazil are 3 up and hopefully the (-1) bet is safe enough now. That'll leave us €31.75 up after 2 days which is on track to record the €90/week we need to add a zero!

Discipline is important at this early stage but I will increase the % of the points once I get a couple of weeks in profit.

Fingers crossed.

Collie D · 12-10-2008 10:16PM

cson wrote: »

I understand your point but it's not going too badly at the moment, Brazil are 3 up and hopefully the (-1) bet is safe enough now. That'll leave us €31.75 up after 2 days which is on track to record the €90/week we need to add a zero!

Discipline is important at this early stage but I will increase the % of the points once I get a couple of weeks in profit.

Fingers crossed.

Not having a go at you or anything but you mentioned discipline but already you have broken one of your own rules by going over the maximum numbr of bets per day. I know it's looking like a winner and all so my point might be moot

cson · 12-10-2008 10:31PM

Yeah I know, the main reason I broke the rule was I had mentioned the Brazil game in a post but forgot about it, I had intended for it to be one of bets.

Tomorrow is going to be pretty difficult to swing a decent bet out of, may end up doing nothing. An awful lot of ****e racing and football on.

Collie D · 12-10-2008 10:48PM

Not sure if you;e into NFL at all but I fancy Giants to easily cover 7.5 points against Cleveland. NY are 4-0 with 13 touchdowns from four games. Cleveland are 1-3 with only 4 TDs and the only team they've beaten are Cincinatti who are sh*te to be blunt. Giants have their wide receiver back as well. If this was in Giants Stadium I think we'd be looking at a handicap of 15-20 points.

mike65 · 12-10-2008 10:55PM

May I suggest another rule break, if you can't find a bet you are completely happy about on a given day, DONT bet! Save it for later

Mike

cson · 12-10-2008 11:05PM

Don't have a clue bout NFL Collie, I'd be relying purely on your judgement there and I'd rather have an idea about what I'm betting on. Cheers anyway and good luck with that if you've backed it.

Definitely agree Mike, not an awful lot to interest me tomorrow. May have a look at what rides the two competing for Champion Apprentice have as I'm following both Probert and Buick.

snapplejacks · 13-10-2008 09:06AM

mike65 wrote: »

May I suggest another rule break, if you can't find a bet you are completely happy about on a given day, DONT bet! Save it for later

Mike

AGREED. Another very hard rule to stick to....after a series of wins you sometimes will fall into the trap of wanting to bet on something just for the sake of it.....this more often than not will throw you up a loser and you find you're kicking yourself afterwards.

I will stick with sports which i know a fair bit about (gaelic, hurling, soccer, rugby - more than enough opportunities to make gains), I AVOID HORSES, GREYHOUNDS, this is a mugs game.

try not to stick to any fixed plan of making so much within a certain timeframe, that could cause you problems....

Dun laoire · 13-10-2008 09:48AM

Nice start pal. Good stuff

Bluetonic · 13-10-2008 10:17AM

What do you think of the book? Read it back in May and thoroughly enjoyed it, definitely a recommended read for any horse racing gambling enthusiasts.

cson · 13-10-2008 12:23PM

Brazil (-1) did the job for us, winning the princely sum of €10.50 inc stake for the cause.

Number of bets:8
Winning bets:4
Strike Rate: 50%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €131.75
Profit/Loss: + €31.75 (+31.75%)

I've spent quite a bit of time researching todays bets and came up with these. I'm pretty confident about them, so fingers crossed.

(a) Backing Etosha in the 5.00pm Windsor.
1pt @ 5/6
> Dettori and Bin Suroor are very hot at the moment and this is the class horse in the field on both speed ratings and RPR.

(b) Backing Majestic Lady
0.25pt e/w @ 12/1
> I've picked this horse over Buicks other main chance Lease of Life (who incidentally runs in Etosha's race) as I feel he offers good e/w value and is the top speed rated horse in a 6f race.

(c) Backing Notts County v Brentford
0.5pt Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
> Both sides unbeaten in their last 5 games and both have played matches that are very tight in their respective previous home (Notts) and aways (Brentford).

@ Bluetonic, I've not yet finished the book but it is an entertaining read, its interesting to note how impressionable O'Connor is throughout, he's changed tact 2/3 times already (I never back e/w, don't trust the formbook etc). Its a good read and very funny in places.

mike65 · 13-10-2008 12:27PM

I was going to suggest Burton Albion FC v Mansfield Town FC +2.5 @1.75-ish

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/comparison/?team_A_id=764&team_B_id=732&compare=compare+the+teams

Mike

jayo27 · 13-10-2008 02:09PM

Where would i get my hands on a copy of this book?

Add A Zero

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