Add A Zero

cson

Reading Brian O'Connors book of the same name at the minute and decided why not have a go at it myself. So I've given myself a starting bank of €100 and the aim is to turn it into €1000 before Christmas which gives me exactly 10 weeks. So I'll have to be making €90 per week. :eek:

I know that some of you are going to laugh at me doing this but tbh win or lose it doesn't bother me so long as I get at least a few weeks done before the tank reaches zero! So I'd ask, if you've nothing positive (that includes constructive criticism) to contribute to the thread hold your counsel.

First of all;
The Rules
1. I'm sticking to what I have some grasp of here; Football, Rugby and Group/Listed Horse Racing are the markets that I'll be dabbling in.

2. I'll be using a points system as I find it adds more discipline to think of points rather than money. 1pt = 10% of bank at time of bet.

3. Max bets of 2pts/day or 20% of bank.

4. Doubles are the only multiple type bet allowed. The majority of bets will be singles.

5. Reasoning why the bets are placed must be given in the post. This will require me to do some research behind the bets.

Right, thats it, keeping it fairly simple with the rules.

The off is tomorrow, looking like international football matches are going to be the source of the first bet.

Number of bets:0
Winning bets:0
Strike Rate: 0%
Biggest Win:
Biggest Loss:
Bank:
Profit/Loss:

kryogen

best of luck with this

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

yeah gl with it make sure the 10% rule does not turn into 50% when u hit a bad patch trying to catch it back up.

cson

Cheers lads.

Right, todays bets;

(a) 1pt Slovenia win @ 1/1

(b) 0.5pt Double
- Slovenia @ 1/1
- Portugal @ 11/8

(c) 0.5pt Double
- England (-3) @ 6/4
- Leinster (-7) @ 6/5

Reasoning;
(a) Northern Ireland do not travel well > they've not won a world cup qualifying game away from home in 7 years. Slovenia beat Slovakia on their last outing (who beat NI at home) and I think all the indicators are for a home win, therfore I think evens about a home win is excellent value.

(b) Portugal, theres a post by redfan in one of the international threads here that pretty much sums up how I feel about this match. Portugal are in a tricky group, have not started well and will be sorely needing the 3 points on offer tonight. See (a) for Slovenia.

(c) I do think England at home will take Borats countrymen to the cleaners tonight and a (-3) handicap bet at 6/4 offers some value if Walcott & Co. get flying. Edinburgh are going to bear the brunt of a Leinster backlash after the Connacht result and despite the place being a graveyard for Leinster of late, imo with Contepomi back at 10 they'll easily account for Edinburgh with the (-7) handicap @ 6/5 my pick.

mike65

Good luck and all that...

Mike

Collie D

cson wrote: »

(a) 1pt Slovenia win @ 1/1


Reasoning;
(a) Northern Ireland do not travel well > they've not won a world cup qualifying game away from home in 7 years. Slovenia beat Slovakia on their last outing (who beat NI at home) and I think all the indicators are for a home win, therfore I think evens about a home win is excellent value.

Am on this myself. Think evens is a gift. Good luck

Trampas

cson wrote: »

(c) 0.5pt Double
- England (-3) @ 6/4
- Leinster (-7) @ 6/5

good start

england looked bad at 2-1

cson

Trampas wrote: »

good start

england looked bad at 2-1

Don't know how this bet came in, England looked dodgy given there was no score at ht and Leinster were poor against Edinburgh too.

Still, I'll take any luck thats going!

cson

Slovenia got two late goals to win the main bet of the day for us. It would have been an even better start but Portugal only managed to draw in Sweden. The other handicap double of England and Leinster came up somehow.

Number of bets:3
Winning bets:2
Strike Rate: 66%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €127.50
Profit/Loss: + €27.50 (+27.5%)

Promising start

AdrianII

i saw this post earlier on and im tring to do the same myself

started with 30 euro in the bank, won on a certain horse last weekend - brought me up to 120. Put 70 on england v kaz (to be more than 4 goals) got 50 profit

170 - had 10 on N Ireland to lose
180 - have 20 on argentina v urg + 3.5 goals Currently 2-1 hope to have 200 by the end of tonight.

Im using betfair for the record

good luck with adventure

mike65

Did Brian O'Connor achive his aim?

Mike

cson

mike65 wrote: »

Did Brian O'Connor achive his aim?

Mike

Tell ya when I finish the book.

He was trying €5000 to €50,000!

Currently assessing todays bets, looking at the big races in Limerick today particularly the Munster National, also Brazil - Venezuela handicap and Toulouse and Saracens on the handicap in Rugby.

cson

(a) Double - HC Rugby
Wasps (-19) @ 10/11
Toulouse (-9) @ 10/11
0.5 pt Double

(b) Wasps (-19) @ 10/11
0.5pt single

Still assessing the Munster National but its looking like Paul Nicholls Dear Villez is the answer.

cson

(c) 4.15 Limerick: Dear Villez
0.5pt Win @ 11/8

(d) Double
4.15 Limerick: Dear Villez @ 11/8
4.50 Limerick: Marodima @ 8/13
0.5pt Double

PAU

Best of luck with it m8.

Mellor

Good luck with this, cson

cson wrote: »

So I've given myself a starting bank of €100 and the aim is to turn it into €1000 before Christmas which gives me exactly 10 weeks. So I'll have to be making €90 per week. :eek:

A little encouragement, as you are betting a precent of your roll, and ideally, your roll will increase towards the end. The bet sizes and the profit will also jump,
as in, its will be easier to get from €900 to €1k, than from €100 to €200
So instead of setting a €90 per week target, consider it as, 20-30% per week

cson

Wasps, Toulouse and Marodima all let the side down today on what was a pretty bad day bar Dear Villez winning. I've learned one thing from it though, to stay clear of too many doubles, I'm adding a rule of a max of 1 double a day.

Number of bets:7
Winning bets:3
Strike Rate: 43%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €121.25
Profit/Loss: + €21.25 (+21.25%)

Thinking about backing Brazil on a handicap for the moment for half a point. It'll break the max bets/day rule and it seems like chasing but I had mentioned it already.

Edit: Backed Brazil (-1) @ 11/10, 0.5pt win.

AdrianII

i know this is against your rules

but you should have lumped on brazil - i threw 70 on there to be more that 2.5 goals, 50 quid richer after 30mins of football

i know lumping on games can be a bad idea sometimes but by placing small amounts on matches you will never reach 90 euro profit a week imo

snapplejacks

OP.

yes....stay away from trebles and upwards if you can.....
i started with bank of about 300 1 month ago, now sitting on 1200.

doing singles and occassional doubles...the bets i've lost are when i go trebles and more selections, and start getting a bit silly and greedy. I'm not sticking to any 10% rules....if i feel good about a bet i can put anything up to 30% or 40% on a selection.....

cson

I understand your point but it's not going too badly at the moment, Brazil are 3 up and hopefully the (-1) bet is safe enough now. That'll leave us €31.75 up after 2 days which is on track to record the €90/week we need to add a zero!

Discipline is important at this early stage but I will increase the % of the points once I get a couple of weeks in profit.

Fingers crossed.

Collie D

cson wrote: »

I understand your point but it's not going too badly at the moment, Brazil are 3 up and hopefully the (-1) bet is safe enough now. That'll leave us €31.75 up after 2 days which is on track to record the €90/week we need to add a zero!

Discipline is important at this early stage but I will increase the % of the points once I get a couple of weeks in profit.

Fingers crossed.

Not having a go at you or anything but you mentioned discipline but already you have broken one of your own rules by going over the maximum numbr of bets per day. I know it's looking like a winner and all so my point might be moot

cson

Yeah I know, the main reason I broke the rule was I had mentioned the Brazil game in a post but forgot about it, I had intended for it to be one of bets.

Tomorrow is going to be pretty difficult to swing a decent bet out of, may end up doing nothing. An awful lot of ****e racing and football on.

Collie D

Not sure if you;e into NFL at all but I fancy Giants to easily cover 7.5 points against Cleveland. NY are 4-0 with 13 touchdowns from four games. Cleveland are 1-3 with only 4 TDs and the only team they've beaten are Cincinatti who are sh*te to be blunt. Giants have their wide receiver back as well. If this was in Giants Stadium I think we'd be looking at a handicap of 15-20 points.

mike65

May I suggest another rule break, if you can't find a bet you are completely happy about on a given day, DONT bet! Save it for later

Mike

cson

Don't have a clue bout NFL Collie, I'd be relying purely on your judgement there and I'd rather have an idea about what I'm betting on. Cheers anyway and good luck with that if you've backed it.

Definitely agree Mike, not an awful lot to interest me tomorrow. May have a look at what rides the two competing for Champion Apprentice have as I'm following both Probert and Buick.

snapplejacks

mike65 wrote: »

May I suggest another rule break, if you can't find a bet you are completely happy about on a given day, DONT bet! Save it for later

Mike

AGREED. Another very hard rule to stick to....after a series of wins you sometimes will fall into the trap of wanting to bet on something just for the sake of it.....this more often than not will throw you up a loser and you find you're kicking yourself afterwards.

I will stick with sports which i know a fair bit about (gaelic, hurling, soccer, rugby - more than enough opportunities to make gains), I AVOID HORSES, GREYHOUNDS, this is a mugs game.

try not to stick to any fixed plan of making so much within a certain timeframe, that could cause you problems....

Dun laoire

Nice start pal. Good stuff

Bluetonic

What do you think of the book? Read it back in May and thoroughly enjoyed it, definitely a recommended read for any horse racing gambling enthusiasts.

cson

Brazil (-1) did the job for us, winning the princely sum of €10.50 inc stake for the cause.

Number of bets:8
Winning bets:4
Strike Rate: 50%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €5
Bank: €131.75
Profit/Loss: + €31.75 (+31.75%)

I've spent quite a bit of time researching todays bets and came up with these. I'm pretty confident about them, so fingers crossed.

(a) Backing Etosha in the 5.00pm Windsor.
1pt @ 5/6
> Dettori and Bin Suroor are very hot at the moment and this is the class horse in the field on both speed ratings and RPR.

(b) Backing Majestic Lady
0.25pt e/w @ 12/1
> I've picked this horse over Buicks other main chance Lease of Life (who incidentally runs in Etosha's race) as I feel he offers good e/w value and is the top speed rated horse in a 6f race.

(c) Backing Notts County v Brentford
0.5pt Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
> Both sides unbeaten in their last 5 games and both have played matches that are very tight in their respective previous home (Notts) and aways (Brentford).

@ Bluetonic, I've not yet finished the book but it is an entertaining read, its interesting to note how impressionable O'Connor is throughout, he's changed tact 2/3 times already (I never back e/w, don't trust the formbook etc). Its a good read and very funny in places.

mike65

I was going to suggest Burton Albion FC v Mansfield Town FC +2.5 @1.75-ish

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/comparison/?team_A_id=764&team_B_id=732&compare=compare+the+teams

Mike

jayo27

Where would i get my hands on a copy of this book?

Mellor

cson wrote: »

That'll leave us €31.75 up after 2 days which is on track to record the €90/week we need to add a zero!

If you get €90/week out of your head it will be easier, see my post above

Mellor wrote: »

A little encouragement, as you are betting a precent of your roll, and ideally, your roll will increase towards the end. The bet sizes and the profit will also jump,
as in, its will be easier to get from €900 to €1k, than from €100 to €200
So instead of setting a €90 per week target, consider it as, 20-30% per week

You have already increased BR by 37%, thats far more than need for the whole week. Don't feel like you need to bet every day, some days there just isn't a bet that suits

cson

Good point and good advice Mellor, I'm going to try think of it as a percentage of bank rather than setting a monetary target. As you said already, it'll get easier if I get a sizeable bank around €400-€500.

And as regards the bets, its a pretty ****e day for any decent betting markets although I do have confidence in what I've picked today.

Thanks for the replies and advice everyone.

Good thread mate.

I see your earlier bets you were putting the same bet in a single and a double. Always a bad move as if it doesnt win both bets are f****d !

Dead cert singles are the way forward. I'd even stay clear of the horses tbh, never feel too comfortable betting on animals !

Good luck with it, will be following it closely

jArgHA

very interesting thread cson, it'll be interesting to see if you can maintain your good start. how did today's bets work out for you so far?

jAH

L'prof

jArgHA wrote: »

how did today's bets work out for you so far?

No winners today so far, let's hope the footie bet comes in.

Very interesting thread indeed.

kryogen

your saving grace today should be the giants -8 tonight, they really should be covering that spread against a mediocre Browns team, im amazed its so low

Dodge

kryogen wrote: »

your saving grace today should be the giants -8 tonight, they really should be covering that spread against a mediocre Browns team, im amazed its so low

The Browns are way better than the Bengals that NYG needed overtime to beat 2 weeks ago. That game was in the Meadowlands too

Ace2007

Hey OP, i read that you said you are going to bet a max of 20% of your roll per day - unless u run sick hot ur going to go bust soon and equally are going to go bust if you as stated are going to increse the % bet as ur bank increase,

As a matter of interest how long did the author of the book give himself to do the challenge,

I would love to do a challenge like this but past experience have shown i don't have the discipline and end up lumping it all on some match/horse and win, last 3 big bets i put on i won, but won't be doin it again..

gl with it anyhow...

AdrianII

kryogen wrote: »

your saving grace today should be the giants -8 tonight, they really should be covering that spread against a mediocre Browns team, im amazed its so low

OP, hope you didnt go along with this the browns won 35 -14

WON they battered them

Bluetonic

jayo27 wrote: »

Where would i get my hands on a copy of this book?

I got it online in May, but I've since seen it in Hughes & Hughes

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Add-Zero-Irish-Racing-Season/dp/0340960736/ref=sr_11_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1223974854&sr=11-1

jArgHA

looks like the Brentford match was your saving grace yesterday!

Shurwhynot

Great thread!

wb

Interesting thread. I read that book and enjoyed it immensely. Best of luck!

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

I was going to suggest Burton Albion FC v Mansfield Town FC +2.5 @1.75-ish

Hope you didn't do it cson Flips sake, both teams score and leak goals yet it finishes 1-0.

Mike

Ace2007

Ace2007 wrote: »

I would love to do a challenge like this but past experience have shown i don't have the discipline and end up lumping it all on some match/horse and win, last 3 big bets i put on i won, but won't be doin it again..

lol @ what i wrote, i lasted less than 13 hours.... :mad:
still won the bet -

OP, I hope you did'nt listen to the crazy tips been given out yesterday ie.tips on NFL and division Z in England.
Possibly the most ridiculous tips I've ever heard given. With tips like them who needs enemies!

kryogen

rarnes1 wrote: »

OP, I hope you did'nt listen to the crazy tips been given out yesterday ie.tips on NFL and division Z in England.
Possibly the most ridiculous tips I've ever heard given. With tips like them who needs enemies!

dear God are you serious? you wouldnt like to be on the side of a superbowl champ best offense in the league 4 and 0 team? you would prefer to back the 1-3 team who had struggled to get first downs with the QB fluffeing over 50% of his passes

yeah right :rolleyes:

AdrianII

i would have gone with the giants, anyone that watches NFL knows the class of the team, hey they even beat the pats in the sbowl final and got off to a great start this year. Sorry for your loss kyrogen - it seemed a safe bet

cson - look at liverpool reserves tonight, they are playing everton. Liverpool reserves have a great team - won the league last year - priced at 3/4 at the mo

cson

Yesterday was the worst day so far with only the soccer bet saving the day with a princely €8.64. I'm not too despondent about it though as I have learned some important lessons from it. Namely to be very tentative backing horses at all.

Number of bets:11
Winning bets:4
Strike Rate: 36%
Biggest Win: €27.50
Biggest Loss: €10
Bank: €120.39
Profit/Loss: + €20.39 (+20.39%)

Todays bets;
(a) Liverpool Reserves
0.5pt win @ 4/5

(b) England U-21s (-1)
1pt win @ 8/11

(c) Double
Liverpool Reserves @ 4/5
England U-21s @ 8/11
0.5pt double.

Ace2007

I don't like u betting above - if one of them don't win then ur double is out the window...
also on boyles liverpool reserves are 5/4 to win - pays to shop around...