October Analysis and Forecasts

Supercell · 28-09-2008 11:45am #1

This month its back to basics which (slightly) less random predictions! :-

1. What will be mean temperature in October?
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th)
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990)

Deep Easterly · 28-09-2008 12:12pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.6c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.9c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.9c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.7c

A Chart topping forecast, even if I say so myself. :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2008 9:39pm

1. 10.7 C

2. 19.5 C

3. -2.0 C

4. 14.5 C

5. -0.3 C anomaly

squonk · 29-09-2008 9:11am

1. What will be mean temperature in October = 10.4c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations = 18.1c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations = -2.1c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) = 15.9
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) = +/- 0.5c

Danno · 29-09-2008 11:09am

Should +/- be allowed? Also, where is the usual introduction to the month, discussing the averages etc...

squonk · 29-09-2008 11:14am

Well it' says mean so that's usually a statistical average with error margins built in!

Hal1 · 29-09-2008 4:06pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.9.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 0c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 15.5c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.3c

Supercell · 29-09-2008 4:57pm

Danno wrote: »

Should +/- be allowed? Also, where is the usual introduction to the month, discussing the averages etc...

Well I was gonna go by the margin mentioned in the Monthly Weather Summary which gives a definitive figure but since Paddy the maverick has started the run I'll accept a raw deviation value, I'll make it clearer next time

Strasser · 29-09-2008 5:25pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.1
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.2.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.4c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.4c

Deep Easterly · 29-09-2008 7:25pm

Danno wrote: »

Should +/- be allowed?

With regards the final deviation from average from a particular station, my personal assumption is that is dosen't matter if your forecast figure is in the plus or minus, that is why I put the +/- there to emphasize that point to others. I think it is the figure itself that is important. Plus, it will make the scoring easier for Supercell at the end of each month.

By the way, The Overall Mean for September is 10.5c. Sorry for not stating this ealier folks, I just got carried away putting together my own, rather brilliant forecast...:p

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2008 8:29pm

I suspect the +/- feature will confuse the judges, people are just copying that and putting an anomaly right after it. In most cases as I look at the numbers, it is probably a positive anomaly that is being predicted, but that negative sign is sitting beside it. That's why I didn't copy the +/- but expressed the prediction as -0.3 so it would be clear. I'm not sure if this makes sense, but it could make the scoring job a bit difficult at the end of the month. Cheers ... :cool:

Danno · 29-09-2008 8:34pm

If I said +/- 10c I would be giving a 20c range. Any temperature between 0.5c and 20.5c would deem my answer correct!

Deep Easterly · 29-09-2008 9:00pm

Danno wrote: »

If I said +/- 10c I would be giving a 20c range. Any temperature between 0.5c and 20.5c would deem my answer correct!

if you said +/- 10c, you would only win if a final deviational score came in at either plus or minus 10c. It gives you two shots at winning, true, but how could anything inbetween be deemed correct? I am not a great one for numbers, so could thou explain that concept to simple auld me?

Supercell · 29-09-2008 9:09pm

The scoring will just be the usual temperature score based on the raw number this time instead of the + or -

Thus if the actual deviation was +2.5°C

And previously you had guessed -2.5° you would have scored nowt.
However this month if you had predicted +/-2.5° you score 10 points.

Hope that clears any confusion up, anyone that already predicted a positive or negative value only this month will just be treated as a standard +/- prediction so no worries.

Now wheres Nachos two sets of forecasts :pac::pac::pac:

nilhg · 29-09-2008 9:21pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.1c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 19.2c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 1.5c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 17.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) 2.1c

Deep Easterly · 29-09-2008 9:22pm

Da boss has spoken, and I shall respect.

jd · 29-09-2008 11:59pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.6
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.9.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -.2 c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) 0.4c

Weather BOFH · 30-09-2008 12:31am

Getting my effort in early to avoid any issues this month!

1. What will be mean temperature in October?: 10.3C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: 17.6C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: -1.8C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th): 13.0c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990):+/-0.5C

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2008 9:47am

My apologies, I didn't get the drift of that ... two ways to be right, better odds than usual.

DOCARCH · 30-09-2008 12:24pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 18.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 16.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +1.3c

arctictree · 30-09-2008 3:55pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.5c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.7c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 15.0c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.7c

gurramok · 30-09-2008 5:58pm

It's going to be a freezing month!

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.7c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.4c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 12.4c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.4c

Supercell · 30-09-2008 6:46pm

This is how Wicklow wrestles the title back east

:pac::pac:

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.1°C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.4°C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.2°C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.5°C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.2°C

Deep Easterly · 30-09-2008 7:23pm

Supercell wrote: »

This is how Wicklow wrestles the title back east :pac::pac:

Hope you are a good wrestler Supercell, becasue the gloves are now off*

*never understood what that meant, but it sounds good in times of increasing competitivness. :pac:

Snowbie · 30-09-2008 8:00pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.3C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.5C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.5c

Supercell · 30-09-2008 8:27pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hope you are a good wrestler Supercell, becasue the gloves are now off*

*never understood what that meant, but it sounds good in times of increasing competitivness. :pac:

Lol

Nacho seems to be asleep at the wheel, my chances are improved, no predictions accepted after midnight mwahaahah!!

rc28 · 30-09-2008 8:29pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.5c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.0c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.2c

kindredspirit · 30-09-2008 9:24pm

1..........11.5c

2..........17.8c

3..........-1.2c

4..........14.6c

5..........+0.8c

Danno · 30-09-2008 11:06pm

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 19.2c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.7c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.6c

Deep Easterly · 30-09-2008 11:12pm

Nacho, will you for God sake put your forecast in before 12. You see how Supercell is becoming confidant of hogging the title, and I am depending on you to bring a bit of pride back home!

(Could this be the new alternative to the GAA?

)

Edit, that could be a good idea actually! we could assign someone to do a running commentary, saying things like (in a Michael Lester voice) "well on the day, Nacho's Mayo cunning proved too much for the man from the hills when his devastating forecast"..and so on..

nacho libre · 30-09-2008 11:55pm

ok. without further ado here is the forecast you've all been waiting for:pac:

1. What will be the mean temperature in October? 10.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.4C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? - 1.1C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.2C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.3c

October Analysis and Forecasts

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