October Analysis and Forecasts

Supercell

This month its back to basics which (slightly) less random predictions! :-

1. What will be mean temperature in October?
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th)
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990)

Deep Easterly

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.6c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.9c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.9c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.7c

A Chart topping forecast, even if I say so myself. :pac:

M.T. Cranium

1. 10.7 C

2. 19.5 C

3. -2.0 C

4. 14.5 C

5. -0.3 C anomaly

squonk

1. What will be mean temperature in October = 10.4c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations = 18.1c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations = -2.1c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) = 15.9
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) = +/- 0.5c

Danno

Should +/- be allowed? Also, where is the usual introduction to the month, discussing the averages etc...

squonk

Well it' says mean so that's usually a statistical average with error margins built in!

Hal1

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.9.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 0c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 15.5c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.3c

Supercell

Danno wrote: »

Should +/- be allowed? Also, where is the usual introduction to the month, discussing the averages etc...

Well I was gonna go by the margin mentioned in the Monthly Weather Summary which gives a definitive figure but since Paddy the maverick has started the run I'll accept a raw deviation value, I'll make it clearer next time

Strasser

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.1
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.2.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.4c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.4c

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

Should +/- be allowed?

With regards the final deviation from average from a particular station, my personal assumption is that is dosen't matter if your forecast figure is in the plus or minus, that is why I put the +/- there to emphasize that point to others. I think it is the figure itself that is important. Plus, it will make the scoring easier for Supercell at the end of each month.

By the way, The Overall Mean for September is 10.5c. Sorry for not stating this ealier folks, I just got carried away putting together my own, rather brilliant forecast...:p

M.T. Cranium

I suspect the +/- feature will confuse the judges, people are just copying that and putting an anomaly right after it. In most cases as I look at the numbers, it is probably a positive anomaly that is being predicted, but that negative sign is sitting beside it. That's why I didn't copy the +/- but expressed the prediction as -0.3 so it would be clear. I'm not sure if this makes sense, but it could make the scoring job a bit difficult at the end of the month. Cheers ... :cool:

Danno

If I said +/- 10c I would be giving a 20c range. Any temperature between 0.5c and 20.5c would deem my answer correct!

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

If I said +/- 10c I would be giving a 20c range. Any temperature between 0.5c and 20.5c would deem my answer correct!

if you said +/- 10c, you would only win if a final deviational score came in at either plus or minus 10c. It gives you two shots at winning, true, but how could anything inbetween be deemed correct? I am not a great one for numbers, so could thou explain that concept to simple auld me?

Supercell

The scoring will just be the usual temperature score based on the raw number this time instead of the + or -

Thus if the actual deviation was +2.5°C

And previously you had guessed -2.5° you would have scored nowt.
However this month if you had predicted +/-2.5° you score 10 points.

Hope that clears any confusion up, anyone that already predicted a positive or negative value only this month will just be treated as a standard +/- prediction so no worries.

Now wheres Nachos two sets of forecasts :pac::pac::pac:

nilhg

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.1c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 19.2c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 1.5c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 17.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) 2.1c

Deep Easterly

Da boss has spoken, and I shall respect.

jd

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.6
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.9.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -.2 c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) 0.4c

Weather BOFH

Getting my effort in early to avoid any issues this month!

1. What will be mean temperature in October?: 10.3C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: 17.6C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations?: -1.8C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th): 13.0c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990):+/-0.5C

M.T. Cranium

My apologies, I didn't get the drift of that ... two ways to be right, better odds than usual.

DOCARCH

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 18.8c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 16.1c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +1.3c

arctictree

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.5c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.7c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 15.0c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.7c

gurramok

It's going to be a freezing month!

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 15.7c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -3.4c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 12.4c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.4c

Supercell

This is how Wicklow wrestles the title back east :pac::pac:

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.1°C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.4°C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.2°C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.5°C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.2°C

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

This is how Wicklow wrestles the title back east :pac::pac:

Hope you are a good wrestler Supercell, becasue the gloves are now off*

*never understood what that meant, but it sounds good in times of increasing competitivness. :pac:

Snowbie

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.3C
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.5C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.5c

Supercell

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hope you are a good wrestler Supercell, becasue the gloves are now off*

*never understood what that meant, but it sounds good in times of increasing competitivness. :pac:

Lol
Nacho seems to be asleep at the wheel, my chances are improved, no predictions accepted after midnight mwahaahah!!

rc28

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 11.5c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.0c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -2.2c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.2c

kindredspirit

1..........11.5c

2..........17.8c

3..........-1.2c

4..........14.6c

5..........+0.8c

Danno

1. What will be mean temperature in October? 10.2c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 19.2c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -1.7c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 13.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) -0.6c

Deep Easterly

Nacho, will you for God sake put your forecast in before 12. You see how Supercell is becoming confidant of hogging the title, and I am depending on you to bring a bit of pride back home!

(Could this be the new alternative to the GAA? )

Edit, that could be a good idea actually! we could assign someone to do a running commentary, saying things like (in a Michael Lester voice) "well on the day, Nacho's Mayo cunning proved too much for the man from the hills when his devastating forecast"..and so on..

nacho libre

ok. without further ado here is the forecast you've all been waiting for:pac:

1. What will be the mean temperature in October? 10.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.4C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? - 1.1C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.2C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.3c

ch750536

OOps.

1. What will be the mean temperature in October? 11.8c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 17.2C
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? - 2.1C
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 11.6C
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +0.4c

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

Lol
Nacho seems to be asleep at the wheel, my chances are improved, no predictions accepted after midnight mwahaahah!!

right.

So no exceptions for your eastern brethren;)

Trogdor

Completely understand if these aren't accepted, no excuse other than i've been busy.. but thought I'd throw them down anyway just in case..
1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.1c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.6c

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

right.

So no exceptions for your eastern brethren;)

trogdor wrote: »

Completely understand if these aren't accepted, no excuse other than i've been busy.. but thought I'd throw them down anyway just in case..
1. What will be mean temperature in October? 12.1c
2. What will be the highest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? 16.8.c
3. What will be the lowest recorded temperature at the main synoptic stations? -0.9c
4. What will be the highest temperature in Cork AP during Cork Jazz festival (24th -27th) 14.8c
5. What will be the monthly mean temperate deviation be at Cork AP (°C difference from normal for period 1961-1990) +/-0.6c

I am between a rock and a hard place..

I'm gonna let it stand..however there is a cost.....

If you and Nacho are equal points at the end of the year you will be deducted 5 for your lateness and Nacho declared champ.

nacho libre

Supercell wrote: »

I am between a rock and a hard place..

I'm gonna let it stand..however there is a cost.....

If you and Nacho are equal points at the end of the year you will be deducted 5 for your lateness and Nacho declared champ.

nah that's not fair. he was busy. i don't want to get an advantage by default. i could never look snow rabbit in the eye if i did:D

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

I am between a rock and a hard place..

That's what happens when you make up the rules Supercell, sometimes you have to follow them.. :pac:

Trogdor

Thanks supercell, and if it comes down to it i completely agree that nacho should be declared champ although he seems to have quite the commanding lead already!

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That's what happens when you make up the rules Supercell, sometimes you have to follow them.. :pac:

:pac::p

Danno

Sure it's only day 3 of the month, any of the bonus points are waaay off in the month. Just my 2c.

Snowbie

Supercell wrote: »

I am between a rock and a hard place..

I'm gonna let it stand..however there is a cost.....

If you and Nacho are equal points at the end of the year you will be deducted 5 for your lateness and Nacho declared champ.

[enter evil mode]Lock the thread at midnight at months end and reopen it a few days later to solve this problem.
Not in, you can't win. I would disqualify these late comers so i be declared King and you a well deserved runner up, huh! what you think?[/leave evil mode]

trogdor wrote: »

Completely understand if these aren't accepted, no excuse other than i've been busy..

Busy studying two more days data for the up coming month;):p

Supercell

Glad thats er settled then, Nacho be a good fellow and win this thing outright please

M.T. Cranium

Just wondering, does the "year" end in December or February in this compy?

I would tend to be lenient on regular participants who enter on the first of a month, maybe the second or third is pushing it but really, what more clue does one have on the first about the weather for Cork at the end of the month? Of course, he might have "worked it all out" between midnight and morning of the first, but bravo if that's the case.

Snowbie

I would think the end of December and start afresh come January. Supercell?

Supercell

Calender year, MTC ..stop talking sense..
Last minute voters can get an "average" advantage.
The fact that it is clearly advantageous to do is is very very interesting. It shouldn't be if its all random.

M.T. Cranium

My belief is that most of us make a monthly temperature forecast using the same process, but of course different ideas get into that process.

We tend to look at the models from the first to the sixth or so and assume they are generally accurate as to large trends. Then we look at the seventh to the end of the run, and ask ourselves, what could go wrong with that?

Then we think about trends of the past few months, what sort of "spell" are we in and is there any evidence for that changing during this month?

Then we might factor in some private research, investigations, made by either ourselves or people we've been reading on some weather forum, if we think they might be on to something.

Then we remember every month is just about bang on normal and split the difference.

So this hardly changes by the end of the first day of the month, in fact, I would wager that if each of us had the opportunity to change our forecasts for Cork on the 7th or even the 15th, half of those changes would improve our chances and half would decrease them. It would be maybe the 20th before any real improvement might set in (for those of us that need improvement, that is to say).

I've only had one experience in many years of doing these forecasts where I had a sort of clear "vision" of how the month might go, where that was not just "about like the past three or four months" which is really just the money forecast for anyone to make, persistence usually works. There are patterns that seem to develop and unfold that you can sometimes glimpse in general terms and it's quite exciting for a while as they do unfold, then they might start fading out of focus again and at some point your concept is back to random.

I don't have much of a feel for this month at all, when I see the GFS suddenly throwing up intense storms or warm spells way into the future, I don't react like "hey, I knew it," just "this never ends well." December 12th, that will be a stormy day, so there's one day out of the next 90 nailed down.

Danno

MTC, do you go to all those rounds before you post your forecast?

Trogdor

Snowbie wrote: »

Busy studying two more days data for the up coming month;):p

...shhhh:p I can assure you they are complete guesses apart from having a very brief look at the models:)

Snowbie

trogdor wrote: »

...shhhh:p I can assure you they are complete guesses apart from having a very brief look at the models:)

Like wise:)

M.T. Cranium

Well yes and no, I think a lot of us probably do those things in our head over perhaps five minutes before coming up with the guess. I regularly enter the monthly guessing game over on Netweather so my Irish forecast is an adjustment of that guess or vice-versa. It's hard to imagine a set-up where the monthly anomaly will be vastly different in Ireland from central England, at least in several years I haven't noticed one to be that different, place to place usually isn't that different either but it seemed that Cork was particularly cold relative to normal last month. Anyone have an idea as to why? I don't.

I actually do try to follow this stuff for research I am doing, but I don't claim that the research is in some final form or that these are more than guesses. Most of my research has been done over on this side of the Atlantic where you can get some pretty large anomalies, I've seen months running ten degrees above or below normal in the winter at various places in the central and eastern parts of this continent. Perhaps I have some feel for what's going on here, although I wouldn't say it was anywhere near 100% accurate, but I am still developing any kind of feel for British Isles monthly trends or seasonal outlooks. I've seen a few people on both forums who seem to have a knack for it, I am all over the place so far.

Where I live on the west coast here, the climate is pretty similar to yours, it is probably a bit colder in winter and a bit hotter in July and August and definitely sunnier then, we seem to have a regular dry spell here from mid-July to mid-August, but otherwise you would find most of the year comparable. E.g., on Friday here it was raining on and off all day and about 16 C, and this is typical. We probably get even more rain than most of Ireland would see in November and December, it can rain very heavily here those months, we get a lot of left-over Pacific tropical moisture here in the late autumn, then we can count on one or perhaps two brief snowfall events usually one before and one after Christmas. The longest I have seen snow on the ground here in twelve years is about a week. But I used to live in Ontario where snow would be on the ground pretty much continuously from late November to early April. And that was at 44 deg N while now I am at about 49.5 N the same latitude as Brittany, and it is 10 deg C warmer here than in Ontario in the winter. But it's maybe 5 degrees cooler in July. So I grew up being used to huge weather variations and I find this a bit bland, however, I had enough cold and snow to last a lifetime.

Supercell

I must say the blandness is the one thing i don't like about the Irish climate.
If I could move to the top of a mountain here i would, mainly because the weather changes faster there!
A bit warmer in the summer and a bit cooler in winter would be nice. I think somewhere like Munich in southern Germany has close to my ideal climate in Europe, pity they don't speak English there!
Somewhere like Buffalo NY on the other side of the pond appeals to me too.

arctictree

Nice one MT, you really seem to be putting some effort into this! Are you from around these parts or are you Canadian?!

Today is a typical Irish bland October day. Drizzle and mild. Hope for some real arctic spells this winter. A real white XMas would be nice, we've had some very close calls in the last few years.

A