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A Lotto Madness: Rollover Extravaganza

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135

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    #62
    randylonghorn
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 29,509 Mod ✭✭✭✭randylonghorn


    Sherifu wrote: »
    Ah sh1te, I wanted a feedback thread. :(

    Just wrap some ordinary thread around an amp, and turn the gain up too high ...


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    #63
    Sar!
    Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭Sar!


    You know Brian might be wrong or he might be right but regardless, Im thinking im better off spending my money in the bookies betting on the Lotto to be actually won this Sat in time for Paddys wkend - far better than spending more money on the Lotto itself! :)


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    #64
    Flukey
    Registered Users Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭Flukey


    Had it been won, the conspiracy theorists would have been saying it proved their point and now that it hasn't they'll claim it also proves their point. It's a fix when nobody wins and we get a rollover, but it is also a fix when somebody does finally win it. I won a scratch card in last night's draw, so is that a fix? As to the "tax on the foolish" line, while that may have some merits, I doubt that anyone who has won the jackpot over the years, or even some other large prizes, felt very foolish when they realised that they had won a significant amount.


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    #65
    Flukey
    Registered Users Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭Flukey


    Brian, within the last two weeks I once again won something on the Prize Bonds, which is another one of the "Nobody wins anything on them" claims by many people. I mentioned that in the last Lotto conspiracy thread we had, as I won a few times last year too. As usual you'll get the "I've had Prize Bonds for years and never won anything on them" people using that as their "proof" that it doesn't happen, along with their "I've never heard of anyone winning anything on them" arguments. People do win on Prize Bonds, as I can testify, and people do win on the Lotto and people do win on scratch cards, and not just the minor amounts. Ask the five people that appear on Winning Streak any Saturday if scratch cards are useless, or any big winner from a Lotto or Euro Millions draw if they are useless, and you'll get your answer.


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    #66
    [Jackass]
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    Oh my god you have no idea how much I want to win this Lotto!!! €13m+ rolling over!! :eek:

    Brian, if they pre-pick the numbers ahead of time, how do they rig the draw so that the correct balls come out of the machiene on live TV?

    Or are they in cahoots with RTE and it's not live at all, but it is infact rigged and they have recorded a show to cover every combination of numbers possible and they just air that tape on the night?

    I need to know. I want this so bad!! Is there any way to infultrate this evil genius circle and what are they gaining by it? Are they being rewarded personally by the funds from lotto ticket sales or are they infact the winners...a secret 600 who win the lotto in waves?

    I'm going to start doing background checks on previous winners...you start analyzing accounts. I don't want a single penny unaccounted for, I want sources, receipts, invoices, no stone unturned....together, we're going to get to the bottom of this!

    Get the president on the phone!


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    #67
    tech77
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭tech77


    Healio wrote: »
    You are getting value when the jackpot is over 8.2 million.

    Well that's good because the only time i ever do it is when it goes above 8-9 million..
    Must be some kind of intuitive odds reckoning thing inherent in me. :)


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    #68
    tech77
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭tech77


    slipss wrote: »
    Statistics? Spout? On?!?!?

    The money generated goes towards good causes and sometimes people win stuff, thats all I said.








    (Damn maths heads, everything has to be statistics this and percentages that.)


    God damn statistics.
    Ruining all our fun.
    :confused: :rolleyes:


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    #69
    tech77
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭tech77


    A question for all probability heads:
    If every week you only ever did all the lotteries around the world that had rolled over sufficiently (like this one) to make it worth while, would you clean up eventually?
    Cashing in on others' misfortune around the world so to speak?
    Or am i missing something about this?


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    #70
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    What does it cost to cover every combo? Less than 14 million?

    If so lets do it! :p

    Mike.


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    #71
    RoundyMooney
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭RoundyMooney


    That's grand, but what happens if you share the win with Mrs. Mulligan down the road who does two lines a week when picking up her pension?


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    #72
    Dizzyblabla
    Registered Users Posts: 1,440 ✭✭✭Dizzyblabla


    mike65 wrote: »
    What does it cost to cover every combo? Less than 14 million?

    If so lets do it! :p

    Mike.

    the only problem lies in the fact that someone else might win it too... then you only get half, and you're down a couple of million! I think that's why they added the extra numbers, to make it harder to get all the combinations....


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    #73
    RandolphEsq
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,296 ✭✭✭RandolphEsq


    There should be the option of watching the draw in person if one so wishes. It would put the minds those of us who are paranoid at ease


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    #74
    Sar!
    Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭Sar!


    I agree, they could even stream it live on the web if they wanted. Anyone know why they stopped showing it live on TV - remember it used to be Ronan Collins? At least with the UK one it could never be called into question as its always on the TV live!


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    #75
    Mossy Monk
    Closed Accounts Posts: 28,128 ✭✭✭✭Mossy Monk


    The Lotto draw isn't live?


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    #76
    Lazare
    Registered Users Posts: 4,412 ✭✭✭Lazare


    tech77 wrote: »
    A question for all probability heads:
    If every week you only ever did all the lotteries around the world that had rolled over sufficiently (like this one) to make it worth while, would you clean up eventually?
    Cashing in on others' misfortune around the world so to speak?
    Or am i missing something about this?

    If you only do the lotto when it's +EV (about 12m, not 8m like someone said*), well then yes, like any +EV (positive expected value) wager, you would win money eventually. You just have to figure out a way of living forever, because it's extremely unlikely it will happen within the next fifty years.




    *edit, on reflection, it would probably need to be about 25 million before it's truly +EV, to take into account all the times you'll chop it with others.


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    #77
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Brian Nolan wrote: »
    You may think that this is total fantasy to imagine that so many people could have been in on a scam this long without it getting out. All you have to do is take a look at the Moon landing cover up since 1969!

    Conspiracy Theories forum this way -> <- or possibly that way

    Mike.


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    #78
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    All you have to do is take a look at the Moon landing cover up since 1969!

    *watches last shreds of credibility fly off into the maelstrom*


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    #79
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,621 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This thread is funny :D


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    #80
    Flukey
    Registered Users Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭Flukey


    the only problem lies in the fact that someone else might win it too... then you only get half, and you're down a couple of million! I think that's why they added the extra numbers, to make it harder to get all the combinations....

    You have to remember that if you do cover all combinations and someone else also shares the jackpot, that you will have all the wins on the lower prizes too. That's what happened in May 1991 when the famous Scruffy Murphy's syndicate bought all the combinations. They shared the jackpot with another winner, but still won a fortune overall when all the smaller prizes were added in. There were just 36 numbers back then.
    Brian Nolan wrote:
    To save face this time I wager the National Lottery will have to let it roller over for a week or two after Easter.

    Ah yes, the conspiracy theorist covers all his options. Ironically, isn't that a bit like buying all the lotto number combinations?


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    #81
    Lazare
    Registered Users Posts: 4,412 ✭✭✭Lazare


    Brian Nolan wrote: »
    Hi Flukey

    Congratulations on your win on the Prize Bonds. I know that people say "Nobody wins anything on them."

    I have Prize Bonds purchased as far back as 1975 which I have never won anything on them!

    I am aware that People do win on Prize Bonds, Scratch Cards and on the Lotto.
    I had five of my numbers come up back in 1994 on the lotto. I won just over IR£420 at the time however if I had betted on the Lotto in the bookies I would have got over IR£30,000 for 5 numbers.

    As for the people that appear on Winning Streak on a Saturday they would not say that scratch cards are useless, however they don’t win as big an amount like in the early days of the game show. I am sure the car cost a lot less than the retail price to the National Lottery for advertising on behave of the Manufactures.

    I am aware that when they added extra numbers made it more difficult to win, which would lead to more roll-overs.
    But surely you can see the pattern of roll-overs over the past few years.
    Anyone who's been doing the lottery for a few years will have doubtlessly noticed the strange effect that public holidays like Easter, Patrick's Day, Christmas, Bank Holiday week ends have on the draws in the weeks running up to that date.

    Its past the point of coincidence to the stage where you have to think that someone is tampering somehow with the system, no matter how many adjudicators are present, something is amiss.

    I really don't think it's all in my imagination. I'm not the only one who's ever noticed this pattern either.

    Brian, I'm gonna be the only one to take you seriously.

    You're correct, there is a strange coincidence when it comes to rollovers and BH weekends/xmas etc, and it does seem that there's some riggage going on. I've just one question for you, WHY WOULD THEY??

    Why would they do it? What is their incentive?

    The guys rigging the moon landing (if you believe that, I do btw) had huge incentives. What incentives do four or five guys in lotto senior management have to spend twenty years decieving the nation?

    You could say, ah lotto fever, when the jackpot gets huge, the lotto get lots and lots of customers who never normally play thus increasing revenue. This is true, but that would happen regardless of what time of year the jackpot swells. In fact, you could argue that bank holidays would be the worst time to do it as a lot of people leave the country at these times.

    You sound like you've been following this quite closely, post up all the times the lotto has gone over say, 8m, and if each and every one of those times was in the run up to a public holiday, well then I'd be a little surprised, but something tells me you're suffering slightly with selective memory.


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    #82
    Xavi6
    Registered Users Posts: 40,861 ✭✭✭✭Xavi6


    As a complete and utter lotto sceptic I agree with Brian Nolan.

    I have never done the lotto and most likely never will as I believe it is the biggest money making scam going. I worked in a newsagents for two and a half years and the amount of money people threw away on something they were never really going to win was unbelievable.

    As mentioned, additional numbers were added to make it more difficult for it to be won yet more people are probably doing the lotto than ever before.


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    #83
    Terry
    Registered Users Posts: 26,061 ✭✭✭✭Terry


    Brian Nolan wrote: »
    Thank you for your support.

    I don’t know why the do it. What their incentive is?

    I am aware that when the Euro Lotto first started there was a fall off in sales for the Irish Lotto, more and more people were playing Euro Millions for a greater prize fund, hence the reason why they brought the Irish Lottery Jackpot up to €2,000,000 minimum win.

    They realizes that even €2,000,000 did not go far at the time (pre recession days) it was not enough of incentive for the Irish players.

    With a population of just over 4,100,000 in the country and say on average 1.3 million people purchased tickets for the lotto (minimum purchase is two lines) there was not enough funds coming in over a one or two week period to build up a worth while prize fund.
    By letting it roll over for say 6 or 8 weeks brings the jackpot nearer to the standard Euro Millions price fund of around €15,000,000.

    Yes I would say there is lotto fever, when the jackpot gets huge, the National Lottery get a lot more customers who never normally play thus increasing revenue.

    I agree it would happen regardless of what time of year the jackpot swells. I also have to agree with you that bank holidays would be the worst time to do it as a lot of people leave the country at these times.

    I have been following this quite closely over the years, if I gave the impression that I am suffering with selective memory, than I apologies to the readers of boards.ie.
    Just to make it clear there has not been a rollover on every Bank Holiday weekend, St Patrick’s Day, Christmas, etc, over the years only lately.

    If there is some swindle going on it is an awful shame for what started out as a game of chance which was to raise funds for some very good causes.
    With such a carry on that can only bring disgrace to the National Lottery which could lead to their downfall as the general public start to cop on.
    www.lotto.ie
    All the stats are there.
    Knock yourself out.


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    #84
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    With such a carry on that can only bring disgrace to the National Lottery which could lead to their downfall as the general public start to cop on.

    Whatever about paranoid delusions, people never learn about a flutter, if they did Paddy Powers et al would not be in buisness.

    Mike.


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    #85
    ScumLord
    Registered Users Posts: 28,789 ✭✭✭✭ScumLord


    I just got a PM about this thread!!

    Did I win!!?? Did I win, did I win???


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    #86
    ScumLord
    Registered Users Posts: 28,789 ✭✭✭✭ScumLord


    Brian, haven't I just as much chance of being randomly hand picked by RTE as I have of randomly picking the correct numbers?


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    #87
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,301 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Brian Nolan wrote: »
    As for the people that appear on Winning Streak on a Saturday they would not say that scratch cards are useless, however they don’t win as big an amount like in the early days of the game show. I am sure the car cost a lot less than the retail price to the National Lottery for advertising on behave of the Manufactures.

    They actually give an option to the winners of i) the prize as stated or ii) the full stated cash value of the prize. 99%+ of people take the cash.

    In general I think you ought to back up your theories with more maths.
    a). How many tickets are sold for each draw on average.
    b). What are the mathematical chances of a random set of numbers winning
    c). Using a) and b) what is the chances of an average draw rolling over.
    d) Using c), what is the chances of the the lotto not being won for x number of weeks.
    e). Is the amount of times the lotto is rolling over outside normal standard deviation ranges etc.

    I'm sceptical, but I'm open to being convinced if you can bring some maths to the table (either on this thread or the one on the Gambling forum) rather than just the "i've studied it and its clearly true, anyone who doesn't believe me is wrong" stuff that you've come up with so far.


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    #88
    Sherifu
    Registered Users Posts: 17,727 ✭✭✭✭Sherifu


    kleefarr wrote: »
    Hey Brian Nolan,
    Where is your thread titled "Is the lotto a fix" that you PMed me about a little while ago? And why do you want me to look at it?
    Wertz wrote: »
    I was PMed to look at this thread...
    ScumLord wrote: »
    I just got a PM about this thread!!
    Did I win!!?? Did I win, did I win???
    Report him in feedback. I would. :)


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    #89
    Karoma
    Registered Users Posts: 19,396 ✭✭✭✭Karoma


    With all due respect Mr Brian P. Nolan: Stop ****ing PM'ing people links to this or any other thread. It's spammy.


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    #90
    berliner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭berliner


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Judging by conspiracy guy's history here, he's not a good 'un. Or maybe just not a right 'un.
    what if he's right?


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    #91
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,301 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Brian Nolan wrote: »
    Here are just a hand full of past lotto result.

    See if you can see a pattern of lotto rollovers around Bank Holidays, etc.

    I will uncover more when I have the time, eg: August, October Bank Holidays,
    Easter etc.
    I am aware the prize fund in not as large in some draws, the prize fund has only increased since the Euro Lotto started.

    I can give you an average amount of tickets that are sold for each draw but it would only be an average. You chance of winning the lotto as I said before I believe is 1 in 8,145,060.



    22nd Dec ’07 Christmas 1 winner €13,295,379 Commenced 14th Nov ’07

    28th July ’07 August B/H 1 winner €16,185,749 Commenced 20th June ’07

    26th May ’07 June B/H 1 winner €7,369,631 Commenced 2nd May ’07

    3rd March ’07 1 winner €6,734,298 Commenced 10th Feb ’07

    30th Dec ’06 New Year 1 winner €7,452,671 Commenced 9th Dec ’06

    15th March ’06 St Patrick’s 1 winner €4,283,632 Commenced 25th Feb ’06

    14th Dec ’05 2 winners shared €5,098,373 Commenced 23rd Nov ’05

    12th March ’05 St Patrick’s 1 winner €4,997,776 Commenced 23rd Feb ‘05

    17th March ’04 St Patrick’s 2 winners shared €4,231,798 Commenced 3rd Mar ’04

    24th Dec ’03 Christmas 1 winner €5,617,764 Commenced 22nd Nov ’03

    21st Dec ’02 Christmas 5 winners shared €5,000,000 Commenced 7th Dec ’02

    19th Dec ’01 Christmas 2 winners shared €5,269,088 Commenced 8th Dec ’01
    Note €2m added to Jackpot for Christmas 2001.

    31th March ’01 1 winner €5,268,052 Commenced 10th Mar ’01

    17th March ’00 St Patrick’s 3 winners shared €2,175,754

    24th Dec ’99 Christmas 2 winners shared €3,688,995 Commenced 11th Dec ’99

    23th Dec ’98 Christmas 1 winner €2,963,809 Commenced 12th Dec ’98




    Strange but true:

    22nd Feb ’06 10 winners shared €2,473,743

    5th Dec ’01 3 winners shared €1,000,000

    Brian, I'm really trying to believe you here, but at a glance I don't see anything which is outside statistical expectations.

    We know that mathematically the Lotto is more likely to rollover than be won, and with 8 bank holiday per year(Xmas,NewYear,SPD,Easter,MayDay,Whit,August,October) then its no great leap to expect some of the multiple rollovers to occur in the lead up to these dates.
    However going by your data that you have left out then it looks as if these bankholiday-rollovers are occuring far less than 50% of the time, which again would look to be as roughly expected.
    I'm going to leave this thread now anyway as its getting a bit heavy for AfterHours.

    P.S. You should play online poker, just to see some of the bizarre trends and variances that randomized numbers can throw up.


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