When does it get hard

Mr. Flibble · 24-11-2006 7:34pm #1

After reading thebruiser500's Q&A session where he was asked at what level does online poker get hard, to which he answered it was a silly question that has no answer, I got thinking.
Perhaps this is a question which does have an answer:

If you were playing online where all of your opponents had their names blanked and each hand all the opponents were replaced randomly with another table of opponents so you have no reads - but your opponents did know who you were as if they had been playing with you for as many hands as you played in this scenario, at what level do you think NLH is beatable by a world class player?

So basically, at what level can a very good player beat the game with no reads. Only using good mechanics of NLH.

sikes · 24-11-2006 7:36pm

Mr. Flibble wrote:

Odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair: 25:1.

you sure?!

Mr. Flibble · 24-11-2006 7:50pm

sikes wrote:

you sure?!

Yes

Brendygg · 24-11-2006 7:53pm

not 8-1?

cardshark202 · 24-11-2006 7:55pm

You're wrong about the odds of flopping a set anyway.

I think if anyone worked hard enough, had the discipline and good bankroll management, then they could beat the game at almost any level.

sikes · 24-11-2006 7:55pm

Mr. Flibble wrote:

Yes

so i guess you can never call for set value so.

50 cards left, 2 of which give you a set, 3 times....

NickyOD · 24-11-2006 9:02pm

7.5-1 even [/nitpick]

Some people will never be better than average because they are incapable of being logical thinkers. Then there are people who excel in logic much further than others so bruiser is right its a silly question that doesn't have an answer.

ianmc38 · 24-11-2006 9:08pm

I think it's about 50-1 to hit a set on the flop. Based on my recent run with pocket pairs it's more like 500-1, but the mathematical solution is of course 50-1 or thereabouts...

El Stuntman · 24-11-2006 9:12pm

cardshark202 wrote:

I think if anyone worked hard enough, had the discipline and good bankroll management, then they could beat the game at almost any level.

couldn't disagree more, you must also have card and people sense that goes beyond simple 'hard work'

Tar.Aldarion · 24-11-2006 9:20pm

To flop a set or better it is 11.8%(7.5-1)
To flop a set: 10.8% (8.3-1)
If I can recall stats lectures correctly...
Oh, this is if you are holding a pocket pair btw.

Edit: If holding unmatched cards I think it is 1.35% (73-1) for one of your hole cards.

slegs · 24-11-2006 9:42pm

50-1 for receiving a pair and flopping a set sounds bout right

Tar.Aldarion · 24-11-2006 9:46pm

I think it is 37.073073(recurring to infinity) - 1 but correct me if I am wrong.

EDIT: I'll correct myself.
You have 10.8% of 5.9%(0.6372%, 156.9365-1) chance to hit a set on the flop if you have no cards in your hand and are about to be dealt. This is the chance of getting a pocket pair and then a set.
You have 2.7%(1.35x2, 37.073073-1) chance of getting a set on the flop with two unmatched cards.

Mr. Flibble · 24-11-2006 9:57pm

cardshark202 wrote:

You're wrong about the odds of flopping a set anyway.

I think if anyone worked hard enough, had the discipline and good bankroll management, then they could beat the game at almost any level.

A normal game perhaps but without reads I certainly don't think this is possible.

I have empirical evidence which says the odds are not 7.5 to 1, which is the commonly believed theory but are in fact much worse than that. I believe ianmc38 may also have similar evidence of this fact.

Arthurdaly · 24-11-2006 10:02pm

Point is poker is a game! And it should be just played as a game.
But the greed and the obsession sets in and it becomes a compulsion.
Some games are healthy and they can become a sucessful career but far too many people think they can make a career from playing online poker.
Its dark and an unhealthy career even if successful, many online junkies will argue different.
I guarantee if half the effort you guys put into anything else you would be successful at whatever field you chose.
Some intelligent guys post in the poker section, to name a few:
NOD, hector, manc, lucky, devore.
Any of you guys tell me that poker is'nt a compulsion and i'll eat my own sh*t.
From the moment a poker player buys a "how to book" thats when it stops being a game and fun.
Just a thought, but i guarnatee the bucks you earn will be heavily compenstated by real world loss.

Hitman Actual · 24-11-2006 10:27pm

Hang on a minute, what's this thread about? Three points under discussion already.

Mr Flibble wrote:

I have empirical evidence which says the odds are not 7.5 to 1, which is the commonly believed theory but are in fact much worse than that. I believe ianmc38 may also have similar evidence of this fact

I assume you're taking the piss. If not, what is this evidence you speak of?

Mr Flibble wrote:

If you were playing online where all of your opponents had their names blanked and each hand all the opponents were replaced randomly with another table of opponents so you have no reads - but your opponents did know who you were as if they had been playing with you for as many hands as you played in this scenario, at what level do you think NLH is beatable by a world class player?

So if you played 10 hands, your opponents would have those 10 hands of information on you? And you have zero info on them? I don't know online poker levels well enough to answer (don't know them at all really). But the more hands you played, the more likely you are to be outplayed, so the question is a bit flawed.

Arthurdaly wrote:

blah blah etc...

Great way to introduce yourself here. So if someone buys a book on their hobby, it's a compulsion? Or if someone buys a book on their profession, it's a compulsion? There are a lot of tech guys on here who I'd say have plenty of books on their job (I know I have), but I doubt they're too obsessive about their job. The same goes for poker. And while some people have hobbies just to unwind, etc, more ambitious people try to be good at whatever they're doing. It doesn't make it any less rewarding. Your post is just more stereotypical 'poker is the work of the devil' style BS.

Arthurdaly · 24-11-2006 10:36pm

Not really, difference being that you think poker is rewarding?
You think it's a healthy career/hobby? Maybe, but i think anyone that takes poker seriously has a compulsion. This is only compounded by the fact that there are poker players advising on situations that require indepth analysis of a situation. This to me seems like a compulsion.
I aint preaching but im sure there are online pros here that have suffered whilst not financially, but they definately have suffered.
They won't admit that to themselvers, well that's because its a compulasion.

Hitman Actual · 24-11-2006 10:45pm

Well, you could relate the compulsion thing to any hobby. But take someone who, say, spends five hours a day going brain-dead playing an Xbox360, and compare that to the person who has to actually use logic/strategy/etc, playing (and beating) a game of poker. Who's making better use of their time?

cardshark202 · 24-11-2006 10:49pm

Arthurdaly wrote:

Not really, difference being that you think poker is rewarding?
You think it's a healthy career/hobby? Maybe, but i think anyone that takes poker seriously has a compulsion. This is only compounded by the fact that there are poker players advising on situations that require indepth analysis of a situation. This to me seems like a compulsion.
I aint preaching but im sure there are online pros here that have suffered whilst not financially, but they definately have suffered.
They won't admit that to themselvers, well that's because its a compulasion.

lol

ntlbell · 24-11-2006 10:51pm

Arthurdaly wrote:

Not really, difference being that you think poker is rewarding?
You think it's a healthy career/hobby? Maybe, but i think anyone that takes poker seriously has a compulsion. This is only compounded by the fact that there are poker players advising on situations that require indepth analysis of a situation. This to me seems like a compulsion.
I aint preaching but im sure there are online pros here that have suffered whilst not financially, but they definately have suffered.
They won't admit that to themselvers, well that's because its a compulasion.

What do you think of profesional chess players?

Would you be worried if one of your friends was a chess player and purchased a book on it?

My job (not as a poker player) requires me to provide indepth analysis is this a compulsion? or is it that I now have the knowledge after years of analysing a simular situation and reading a ton of books on the given subject.

Your thinking is flawed, remove the blinkers before they cause you anymore "real world loss"

mormank · 24-11-2006 10:53pm

i would challenge anyone on this site to play one week in the suggested many and win. Bet no one could do it. However as it is an impossible task we will just hae to assume i am right!!!!

hey nicky whats up?

ntlbell · 24-11-2006 10:53pm

lenny_leonard wrote:

Well, you could relate the compulsion thing to any hobby. But take someone who, say, spends five hours a day going brain-dead playing an Xbox360, and compare that to the person who has to actually use logic/strategy/etc, playing (and beating) a game of poker. Who's making better use of their time?

If he's playing Gears of War or trying to regain his youth by mastering Street Fighter I would have to vote for the guy with the 360:D

Arthurdaly · 24-11-2006 10:53pm

Obviously no intelligent disscussion going on here, enjoy the poker gents.

ntlbell · 24-11-2006 10:56pm

Arthurdaly wrote:

Obviously no intelligent disscussion going on here, enjoy the poker gents.

Aww..You don't like Street Fighter?

Hitman Actual · 24-11-2006 11:02pm

Arthurdaly wrote:

enjoy the poker gents.

Hang on a minute, thought you said we couldn't enjoy it cos it's a compulsion?

Arthurdaly · 24-11-2006 11:03pm

Oh an intelligent response.
Your thinking is flawed bell. The ultimate goal of a poker player is to gain financial reward. A chess player plays to be the best in his chosen field.
To compare is absolutely ridiculous, poker is driven by money and financial reward whilst poker is driven by prestige and ultimalely by who is the best.
Your counter agruement will probably be the WSOP, which is a crap shoot at best...no skill involved.

curehead · 24-11-2006 11:12pm

you mean chess yes
chess is driven........

ntlbell · 24-11-2006 11:16pm

Arthurdaly wrote:

Oh an intelligent response.
Your thinking is flawed bell. The ultimate goal of a poker player is to gain financial reward. A chess player plays to be the best in his chosen field.
To compare is absolutely ridiculous, poker is driven by money and financial reward whilst poker is driven by prestige and ultimalely by who is the best.
Your counter agruement will probably be the WSOP, which is a crap shoot at best...no skill involved.

A profesional chess player doesn't play to pay the bills?

Profesional Snooker player makes more in the side games than any tournament spends hour after hour every single day to be the best in his chosen field.

compulsion? degenerate?

A profesional footballer doesn't play for financial reward?

I was starting to think you actually had an opinion but I've just realised you're a troll

Arthurdaly · 24-11-2006 11:51pm

I actually know quite a bit about the professional snooker scene and know for a fact they don't make their money from appearance or money games so i dont know where your getting that info from, maybe in the day of alex higgins jimmy white when there was demand but not these days bud, obviously not well informed so dont think you should make that statement.
Your arguement is weak, poker players are looking for an easy way out, thats where the compulsion beings!
A prosfeesional football player begins from an early age works hard then has to get extremly lucky to make a youth team, then with an enormous amount of luck might get a contract. Then has to impress to make first team football.
If you have half a brain you might realise there is no comparision. You decide.

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 12:13am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Your arguement is weak, poker players are looking for an easy way out, thats where the compulsion beings!
A prosfeesional football player begins from an early age works hard then has to get extremly lucky to make a youth team, then with an enormous amount of luck might get a contract. Then has to impress to make first team football.
If you have half a brain you might realise there is no comparision. You decide.

you will probably find that any decent poker player has served an 'apprenticeship' that will be much longer than any pro soccer player - it takes years to master this game and there is no 'easy way'

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 12:23am

I take your point, a small fraction of poker players will be successful, i acknowledge that fact. I my opinion if you do happen to be successful your sacraficing alot regardless.
You make a few meaningless dollars and that's about it.
My point is that poker is unhealthy and bordering on morbid.
To compare to poker to any sporting career is just ridiculous!
Bell could be next big thing in poker, could he do it in any sporting arena? No he couldnt! That requires natural talent.
Poker is an addiction just like booze, drugs n betting with a bookie.

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 12:28am

Arthurdaly wrote:

I take your point, a small fraction of poker players will be successful, i acknowledge that fact. I my opinion if you do happen to be successful your sacraficing alot regardless.
You make a few meaningless dollars and that's about it.
My point is that poker is unhealthy and bordering on morbid.
To compare to poker to any sporting career is just ridiculous!
Bell could be next big thing in poker, could he do it in any sporting arena? No he couldnt! That requires natural talent.
Poker is an addiction just like booze, drugs n betting with a bookie.

believe me, all the top poker players have serious 'natural talent'

Poker can be addictive just like booze - 100% true. That does not mean that all poker players are gambling addicts, equally not everyone who takes a glass of wine with their dinner is an alcoholic. You seem to have a propensity for sweeping generalisations which invalidates your arguments imo

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 12:37am

All the top players have natural personality, thats what makes them the big bux! Get lucky and win a big tournament, then live off endorsements and promotions. Dumb people see this and think they will be the next big thing, not gonna happen, maybe for a fraction of a %.
True, not all people who play poker are addicts but i think anyone that posts on a poker forum is overly interested in poker.
Whatever floats your boat but there are sacrafices to be made and thats my point.

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 12:42am

Arthurdaly wrote:

All the top players have natural personality, thats what makes them the big bux! Get lucky and win a big tournament, then live off endorsements and promotions. Dumb people see this and think they will be the next big thing, not gonna happen, maybe for a fraction of a %.
True, not all people who play poker are addicts but i think anyone that posts on a poker forum is overly interested in poker.
Whatever floats your boat but there are sacrafices to be made and thats my point.

there are some top players who have absolutely horrible personalities!!

your point is silly, are people who post on soccer forums overly interested in soccer? what about sex forums? get a grip

elaborate on these 'sacrifices'!! personally I think you're unhealthily obsessed with imposing your own narrow viewpoint on people

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 12:50am

Big difference with football forums, its healthy.
Your in the degenerate minority bud
Ok, addicts usually react this way, get angry and deny they have a problem.
Ask yourself a few questions. 1 Whats your motivation for playing poker
2 Could you stop playing for a period of time.

For example, would you think playing online poker for a living is a positive or meaningfull existence?

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 1:01am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Big difference with football forums, its healthy.
Your in the degenerate minority bud
Ok, addicts usually react this way, get angry and deny they have a problem.
Ask yourself a few questions. 1 Whats your motivation for playing poker
2 Could you stop playing for a period of time.

For example, would you think playing online poker for a living is a positive or meaningfull existence?

I'm not angry, rather I'm amused at the paucity of your arguments. Addication = unhealthy behaviour, I don't think me playing poker for an hour when I feel like it is unhealthy behaviour?
Playing it for 12 hours straight and neglecting my family would be unhealthy...

But to answer your questions;
My motivation to play is (a) challenge/competition and (b) fun.
I have often stopped playing for periods of time

I don't play online poker for a living and I think you'll find that the majority of forum members here don't either....
As to whether it's a meaningful existence, is it any more meaningful than say, pushing paper in an office or packing boxes in a factory? You're your own boss, work your own hours (and you pay no tax!). Sounds good to me - if I was good enough, I'd do it. is this addiction or a smart career move?

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 1:09am

Very funny....i think i made my point. U aspire to sit at home by yourself and play online poker for a living.
I would rather shovel sh**it for a living. If thats the capacity of your ambitions, fair play. The majority of regular posters here are addicted to poker whether they care to admit or not, as i said denial is a a sure sign.
Laters.

Richard W · 25-11-2006 1:14am

Arthurdaly wrote:

The majority of regular posters here are addicted to poker whether they care to admit or not, as i said denial is a a sure sign.
Laters.

Do you deny the notion that you're an alcoholic? If so then it's a sure sign you are one, clearly. :rolleyes:

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 1:16am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Very funny....i think i made my point. U aspire to sit at home by yourself and play online poker for a living.
I would rather shovel sh**it for a living. If thats the capacity of your ambitions, fair play. The majority of regular posters here are addicted to poker whether they care to admit or not, as i said denial is a a sure sign.
Laters.

this discussion is pointless, goodbye

enjoy the shovelling btw, kind of encapsulates your personality

Hitman Actual · 25-11-2006 1:17am

What a strange sequence of posts. Are you:

a) A forum regular having a laugh, or

b) Just your average angry troll?

max_power · 25-11-2006 1:18am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Very funny....i think i made my point. U aspire to sit at home by yourself and play online poker for a living.
I would rather shovel sh**it for a living. If thats the capacity of your ambitions, fair play. The majority of regular posters here are addicted to poker whether they care to admit or not, as i said denial is a a sure sign.
Laters.

I'm sure your gonna reply with an "intelligent" or patronising remark about addiction blah blah etc but anyway, who invited captain wreck the buzz? (arthur). How can you possibly say the majority of people here are addicted to poker, and we they are because they post on a poker forum. It's a common ground for people to discuss what for most people is a hobby, and for those lucky ones that play pro, it's no more than asking for advice from a colleague. After saying this i think Arthur is purely winding anyone up, i refuse to believe anyone could be that narrow minded!

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 1:19am

max_power wrote:

After saying this i think Arthur is purely winding anyone up, i refuse to believe anyone could be that narrow minded!

frighteningly enough, he seems to be for real....:eek:

maybe he's Michael McDowell?

max_power · 25-11-2006 1:22am

El Stuntman wrote:

frighteningly enough, he seems to be for real....:eek:

maybe he's Michael McDowell?

It is McDowell! You've cracked it stuntman

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 1:23am

Funnily enough my work colleauges dont advise me on the drawing odds of hitting a flush whilst getting my coffee.
Thank gawd there's places for people like ye, only wish there was somewhere in the virtual world that ye could be locked away to perish.

El Stuntman · 25-11-2006 1:27am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Funnily enough my work colleauges dont advise me on the drawing odds of hitting a flush whilst getting my coffee.
Thank gawd there's places for people like ye, only wish there was somewhere in the virtual world that ye could be locked away to perish.

we play against real people too you know

come into the Sporting Emporium some night and play the E50 freezeout, you might enjoy it....

(unless you trust yourself so little that you think this will be start of a downward spiral that will end with you selling your degenerate ass to strangers under a bridge in order to fund the buy-in to your next poker tournament?)

Hitman Actual · 25-11-2006 1:30am

Arthurdaly wrote:

Some intelligent guys post in the poker section, to name a few:
NOD, hector, manc, lucky, devore.

So who are you really? For a guy who thinks this is a forum for degenerates, you seem to know a lot a bit about the regulars. Read it a lot, do you? And who is "manc"? Is "lucky" Lucky LLoyd or Luckylucky?

shoutman · 25-11-2006 1:32am

Arthur is not just appearing narrow minded but also totally ignorant.

To say that the top players have got personalitys then get lucky and live off endorsements is absolute nonsense!

All the top professionals are multi millionaires earning far more then the top European pro golfers, probably most of the USPGA golfers too (with the exception of one or two but I dont have the facts on that.)

Arthur you are obviously coming here with virtually no knowledge of poker or the poker scene in Ireland.

For the vast majority of people who post on here, Poker is a hobby and nothing more. I myself play poker for purely social reasons and also it helps me to indulge in my competitive side away from contact sports. I have made what I am sure will end up to be lifelong friends through poker. And if I spend one night a week playing poker in a card room in town makes me a addicted gambler then 90% of Irish peoples are chronic alcoholics. An absolutely ridiculous statement to make. Yes there are a few on here who are incredibly talented and earn enough to make a living out of poker, but I dont see how being a professional poker player means that they lack ambition. It mearly shows that the are using their own talents to maximise their potential.
I'm sure I am correct in saying that some of the people on here who play poker as a profession are earning more (if not an awful lot more) then they had done in their previous jobs.

Arthur you are clearly one of these people who catergorize poker players as gamblers saying that everything is based on the turn of a card and poker is 100% luck. That is absolute nonsense and once again it would show your ignorance.

I could go on for days ranting and raving about how illogical your argument is but quite I have better things to do.

Good night.

max_power · 25-11-2006 1:36am

shoutman wrote:

Arthur is not just appearing narrow minded but also totally ignorant.

To say that the top players have got personalitys then get lucky and live off endorsements is absolute nonsense!

All the top professionals are multi millionaires earning far more then the top European pro golfers, probably most of the USPGA golfers too (with the exception of one or two but I dont have the facts on that.)

Arthur you are obviously coming here with virtually no knowledge of poker or the poker scene in Ireland.

For the vast majority of people who post on here, Poker is a hobby and nothing more. I myself play poker for purely social reasons and also it helps me to indulge in my competitive side away from contact sports. I have made what I am sure will end up to be lifelong friends through poker. And if I spend one night a week playing poker in a card room in town makes me a addicted gambler then 90% of Irish peoples are chronic alcoholics. An absolutely ridiculous statement to make. Yes there are a few on here who are incredibly talented and earn enough to make a living out of poker, but I dont see how being a professional poker player means that they lack ambition. It mearly shows that the are using their own talents to maximise their potential.
I'm sure I am correct in saying that some of the people on here who play poker as a profession are earning more (if not an awful lot more) then they had done in their previous jobs.

Arthur you are clearly one of these people who catergorize poker players as gamblers saying that everything is based on the turn of a card and poker is 100% luck. That is absolute nonsense and once again it would show your ignorance.

I could go on for days ranting and raving about how illogical your argument is but quite I have better things to do.

Good night.

And thats the end of that chapter....

Arthurdaly · 25-11-2006 1:46am

Max power you dont know what your talking about!
To say the top professionals are multimillionraies is garbage.
Those guys can go broke at any time, millionaire one day in the red the next.
If you dont know that your pretty stupid.
You will note i never mentioned gamling, did i?
Its calculated gambling, u decide the odds.
Your telling me that someone who posts over a thousand posts on poker isnt overly interested in poker? Your kidding yourself buddy!

cardshark202 · 25-11-2006 1:53am

lenny_leonard wrote:

So who are you really? For a guy who thinks this is a forum for degenerates, you seem to know a lot a bit about the regulars. Read it a lot, do you? And who is "manc"? Is "lucky" Lucky LLoyd or Luckylucky?

or luckyvegas. lol

cardshark202 · 25-11-2006 1:56am

Top golfers make much more than top poker players though.

shoutman · 25-11-2006 1:59am

Last post I just cant let this ignorance slide.

Arthur could you please do me a favour and tell me everything you know about poker and what poker professionals you have heard of.

You do realise the days of betting your fathers country estate in a game of cards ended in the seventeenth century?

At this stage I would say between online and offline poker there is at least one hundred self made millionaires.
Ranging from Chris Moneymaker, to Doyle Brunson, to Phil Ivey, to Gigabet and a host of other online highrollers.
So to say the top professionals arent multimillionaires is not garbage it is plain fact. And the IRS in the U.S.A. will tell you the same.

And no Arthur you do not decide the odds if that was the case i'm sure it wouldnt work as everyone would just select 100% chance of winning.....

And yes of course people are interested in Poker who post on here, but we dont all soley post on here, me for example also have a "chronic addiction" in your words to Football manager and I post regularly on that forum as well as a few other foras, does this mean I am overly interested in Football Management? I don't think so I merely do what I enjoy. I am harming no one and it does not intrude on my studies.

And even if we do soley post here it brings back up the arguement of for example if people post alot in the Sexuality forum, does that make them sex addicts? or people who post in the religious forum does that make them all fundamentalist extremists?

When does it get hard

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