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Prolonged cold spell possible as senior organization call the spell..
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Earthman wrote:Would that have the ability if it strenghtened and headed East to turn our high into a toppler as you mentioned above ie send the high into the continent and bye bye longer cold spell as a result?
I'm not knowledgeable to give that a reliable answer, but my guess would be it would flatten our High out, effectively breaking the link to the north. This would assumedly allow the low to cross us at a later date. There are of course many other things such as the strength of the Siberian high ect that would influence how this Low may affect the coming cold spell.
At that range though I would say concentrate on Friday first and the potential start of it all and worry about how it may or may not break down once we are hopefully under way.
There will be many ups and downs before Friday and the ensembles will tell the full story up to then rather than concentrating on the specifics of one individual model output
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perhaps... but you are forgetting to use the word probably or maybe or possible there- please use them when there is anything but certainty.Weathercheck wrote:On Lunch but Saturday's shaping up to be an interesting
day with widespread snow, more later
I dont want you getting peoples hopes up unnecessarilly.
Like a few posts backs, though you were joking , you said there would be food shortages....
Now I dont want people thinking that theres going to be a foot of snow in Dublin on Saturday-because there wont be!
I see the Beeb aka UKMO have changed their mind on calling a prolonged cold spell
The general agreement now is for 4 or 5 days with a northerly.
Anything more than that is pure speculation.
A northerly is not much use for snow in Dublin as experience has shown.
But this would be more encouraging with a kink in the gradient showing a slight north easterly in the flow.
But temps of plus three or four would confine snow to just the highest ground.
All of that stuff though that far out needs cup fulls of salt taken with it though.
6 days away though and thats very very uncertain.0 -
Earthman wrote:perhaps... but you are forgetting to use the word probably or maybe or possible there- please use them when there is anything but certainty.
I dont want you getting peoples hopes up unnecessarilly.
Like a few posts backs, though you were joking , you said there would be food shortages....
Now I dont want people thinking that theres going to be a foot of snow in Dublin on Saturday-because there wont be!
I see the Beeb aka UKMO have changed their mind on calling a prolonged cold spell
The general agreement now is for 4 or 5 days with a northerly.
Anything more than that is pure speculation.
A northerly is not much use for snow in Dublin as experience has shown.
But this would be more encouraging with a kink in the gradient showing a slight north easterly in the flow.
But temps of plus three or four would confine snow to just the highest ground.
All of that stuff though that far out needs cup fulls of salt taken with it though.
6 days away though and thats very very uncertain.
Those anti-ramping pills are working.......
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Not true Earthman the ground temperature
is profoundly useless in these situations
With 850hpa temps touching -10c and 500hpa Dam at
around 518dam snow is almost certain from any precip,
ground temperatures may max out at 4c but will drop
sharply in any precipitation
A Saturday - Tuesday Cold Spell is in the bag *i think*
A Saturday to Friday Cold Spell is still very much possible
With a tinge to the east in the winds towards next Monday
we shouldnt worry about precip as of yet but Saturday has
a nice feature moving through with the possibility of
a period of prolonged and heavy snow 0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:Not true Earthman the ground temperature
is profoundly useless in these situations
With 850hpa temps touching -10c and 500hpa Dam at
around 518dam snow is almost certain from any precip,
[Injection of reality-only a little bit needed mind...]
I think you are being optimistic there weathercheck.
Those conditions might guarantee snow to higher ground but not to lower levels unless the precipitation was very heavy and a bullseye hit.
Plus you must factor in as I keep repeating that
And anyway, those are models guessing on whats going to happen in 5 or 6 days time...
That is past a reliable forecast timeframe.
I'd like to see models ran 3 or 4 days prior to an event, and then I'd be ramping-otherwise you will just disappoint yourself.mmmmmmmmm tasty http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
Blizzards in the East and North
Again you are looking at models a week out.
They could change several times between this and then as they are only guesses based on several variables.
What I'm basically saying is, there are too many variables to guarantee what weathercheck is saying would happen but its got a higher than usual likelyhood.
Just dont get the hopes up and then if it doesnt come to pass, you wont be disappointed.
[/ end of injection]
Thanks Mothman and matty H for the anti ramping pills-they dont last long though
I actually do think its going to snow this w/end-I dont hold faith in model projections more than 4 days ahead though when so many things are going on.
It *could* snow a lot and then again it could completely miss us. If I was to give blind faith to models up to a week and more ahead I'd be ramping but experience tells me not to do that and wait untill 4 or 5 days at most prior.
( fcuk-its going to snow and snow a lot ...probably
) 0 -
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http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png
I'll leave you to break the news Earthman, im taking a break
from the models too darn stressful! :eek:
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Cold (and very cold at night) most probably, but there seems to be a lack of talk of precipitation from what I can see. From the BBC Monthly Outlook, very sunny during the day, clear skies at night, and little to average rainfall in the east of England.
Thermals, most likely; Sledges, prehaps not. 0 -
Weathercheck wrote:http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png
I'll leave you to break the news Earthman, im taking a break
from the models too darn stressful! :eek:
Makes your earlier posts in this thread look particularly daft now Matt eh?
Charts are awful this evening with the ECM even backing away from any cooler spell whatsoever. No northerly, nothing!
You have to laugh0 -
No not really as i still am predicting with alot of confidence
at least a 4-5 days cold spell. And hopefully if we get
some snow the hounds will be off my back
GFS ensembles are still interesting and i have no
reason to believe looking at the outputs other
than the ECM which is titanically awful that we
are not entering a much colder spell of weather.
Obviously my confidence has been severely dented
by this evening runs and my wee heart abit disappointed :rolleyes: 0 -
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Ye really couldnt make it up earlier this evening we were
on depression tablets now were on ectsacy
18z GFS is a snowfest with snowy norhterlies then Northeastelies
then Easterlies, UKMO Faxh Chart back the GFS up also..
We get the green light for the moment
Still on, i knew it 0 -
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ok translation.
He's talking about met weather model runs.
By atrocious weathercheck means theres unlikely to be a prolonged cold spell - he's in favour of a cold spell( as you may have noticed) so any model or ensemble of models that show there aint going to be one is atrocious in his view.
There might be, the possibility still remains that there could be a cold spell but its difficult to predict as the models are having difficulty coping with that hughe area of high pressure out to the west.
They are not sure of what it is going to do.
Even the UK met office at this stage are unsure of whats going to happen by the w/end and thats unusual.
So they are erring on the mild side at the moment-what longer models were saying was going to be a long cold spell due to a combination of possible circumstances they are now discounting.
Thats because they are dependent on the high pressure doing this that or the other and its basically unpredictable at the moment and doing what it wants rather than what longer term models think it will do.
So its all up in the air really-wait and see0 -
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A apologise to anyone i have sorely disappointed :rolleyes:
Not even i could have forseen this, with so much consistnency
at one stage we thought we were heading into somehting special,
no event he northerly has gone pear shape!
A 3 Day cold snap now from Saturday to Monday with snow possible
on Saturday and Sunday before the High Pressure collapses over
giving cold but frosty weather until Tuesday :rolleyes:0 -
so, are you telling us that we're Definitly not going to get a prolonged cold spell or is there still a chance that the area of high pressure could do the decent thing and give us some heavy snow? All I want is at least 1 day off work. Is that too much to ask 0
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Mothman wrote:I'll give it a go.
"z" is short for Zulu time which is the same zone as GMT (Greenich mean time) which is the time zone we are in in Winter. (Summertime is GMT +1 hour)
The "00" is the hour, in this case meaning midnight. So you can have anything from 00z to 23z (or should that be 24z?)
Correct iirc and a limited version of each of the model runs is made available about 3-4 hours after they are"run" on the site Matty H linked to in the links thread.
Now mothman-do you want to explain "cold outliers" and "mild outliers" 0 -
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I never disputed sunday or mondayWeathercheck wrote:Well i have to disagree about this weekend Earthman
i think it will cold enough for snow to low levels Saturday
through Monday
I have said the fat lady is singing on an Easterly next week which was what you started this thread for.
I doubt very strongly if snow is going to fall to lower levels in Dublin during the daytime on saturday(maybe in the wee small hours of sunday morning)
Remember the system is moving very slowly down as is the colder air.
If you go back and read what I said, you will note, that, thats what I said...
The BBC lunchtime forecast today was pegging afternoon temps for saturday in NI around 5c
and warmer than that in the south of Ireland
If it snows at low levels with those sort of temperatures daytime saturday I'll have my hat with large helpings of sauce thanks.
Theres a much better chance on sunday into monday but I never said there wasnt.0 -
Sorry Earthman thought you were talking about the whole spell
BTW the UKMO throws another spanner in the works, seems
like Tuesday is in the cold bag...
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1441.html0 -
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I'd imagine 1995 would have been above normal aswell by a good bit given it was a long hot dry summer.
Kilkenny iirc had an average temp of 25c for the month of August that year.
The Azores high came up and parked itself over us for the summer
It was not a good summer of grass growth though :eek:
Anyway I'm off topic again.
The UKMO have toned down to the extent that snow on Saturday is even looking unlikely.0 -
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Interestign fax chart for Saturday, 528dam line well to the south
with a good few troughs
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif0 -
Weathercheck wrote:Interestign fax chart for Saturday, 528dam line well to the south
with a good few troughs
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif
Which could mean what exactly?0 -
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because it relieves the ever increasing boredom generated by work and dark evenings. A bit of disruption can be a good thing. Also, although February is the start of Spring, it's not as cut and dry as that. The last biggest snowfall in Ireland was at the end of February '91 so it can still happen. A couple of days (even 1) off work would be more than welcomeCerebralCortex wrote:Why does the chance of snow get eveyone so excited just go on holidays to Austria? Also its Febuary i.e. not winter anymore so forget about it you'll just have to wait until november until we can see if we get "cold weather" which you know we won't. 0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:February is a winter month!
In weather terms winter lasts from December 21st - March 21st
Cool! 0 -
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Earthman wrote:
There would appear to be a temporary gagging order on the fat Lady...
The cold spell that weathercheck was going mad about at the start of this thread ie the Easterly blast after this initial northerly always depended on what our high did and various other factors.
I dont see anything today that rules out an eventual Easterly, though a week or two later than first thought.
It doesnt rule it in either , this is just an event that needs constant watching as the models are struggling with it.0 -
Yep now GFS has come round looks cold till Wednesday
day although not snowy.. High Pressure positioning
has changed and will again. Outputs tonihgt will be
interesting
A Easterly could happen but looking cold from
Saturday for now 0 -
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