Prolonged cold spell possible as senior organization call the spell..

DMC

Cold (and very cold at night) most probably, but there seems to be a lack of talk of precipitation from what I can see. From the BBC Monthly Outlook, very sunny during the day, clear skies at night, and little to average rainfall in the east of England.

Thermals, most likely; Sledges, prehaps not.

Matty H

Weathercheck wrote:

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

I'll leave you to break the news Earthman, im taking a break
from the models too darn stressful! :eek:

Makes your earlier posts in this thread look particularly daft now Matt eh?

Charts are awful this evening with the ECM even backing away from any cooler spell whatsoever. No northerly, nothing!

You have to laugh

ninebeanrows

No not really as i still am predicting with alot of confidence
at least a 4-5 days cold spell. And hopefully if we get
some snow the hounds will be off my back

GFS ensembles are still interesting and i have no
reason to believe looking at the outputs other
than the ECM which is titanically awful that we
are not entering a much colder spell of weather.

Obviously my confidence has been severely dented
by this evening runs and my wee heart abit disappointed :rolleyes:

For consolation and support purposes you could start a thread here...

Gonzo

bbc today gave a chance of wintry showers for the weekend and high pressure coming in from the west by next tuesday but it is gonna be very cold till then.

ninebeanrows

Ye really couldnt make it up earlier this evening we were
on depression tablets now were on ectsacy

18z GFS is a snowfest with snowy norhterlies then Northeastelies
then Easterlies, UKMO Faxh Chart back the GFS up also..

We get the green light for the moment

Still on, i knew it

Danno

This weekend and into next week has alot of potential. Alot of mild airmass has been pushed up into the artic circle by this high pressure to the west, when it returns back south over us, it will be quite active. IMO.

ninebeanrows

OH Dear 00z Atrocious......... may have hide my face round
here for a while...............

LFCFan

Weathercheck wrote:

OH Dear 00z Atrocious......... may have hide my face round
here for a while...............

Non Meteorological speak please????

ok translation.
He's talking about met weather model runs.

By atrocious weathercheck means theres unlikely to be a prolonged cold spell - he's in favour of a cold spell( as you may have noticed ) so any model or ensemble of models that show there aint going to be one is atrocious in his view.

There might be, the possibility still remains that there could be a cold spell but its difficult to predict as the models are having difficulty coping with that hughe area of high pressure out to the west.
They are not sure of what it is going to do.
Even the UK met office at this stage are unsure of whats going to happen by the w/end and thats unusual.

So they are erring on the mild side at the moment-what longer models were saying was going to be a long cold spell due to a combination of possible circumstances they are now discounting.

Thats because they are dependent on the high pressure doing this that or the other and its basically unpredictable at the moment and doing what it wants rather than what longer term models think it will do.

So its all up in the air really-wait and see

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

OH Dear 00z Atrocious......... may have hide my face round
here for a while...............

Anyone want to to a glossary?
I mean 00z - cad e sin?
jd

ninebeanrows

A apologise to anyone i have sorely disappointed :rolleyes:
Not even i could have forseen this, with so much consistnency
at one stage we thought we were heading into somehting special,
no event he northerly has gone pear shape!

A 3 Day cold snap now from Saturday to Monday with snow possible
on Saturday and Sunday before the High Pressure collapses over
giving cold but frosty weather until Tuesday :rolleyes:

LFCFan

so, are you telling us that we're Definitly not going to get a prolonged cold spell or is there still a chance that the area of high pressure could do the decent thing and give us some heavy snow? All I want is at least 1 day off work. Is that too much to ask

Hard to say but current indications are for that colder weather to come down from the north with snow later saturday for the hills only and then only in shower form.
Slight chance of a tinge of north easterly in the flow by sunday which would help shower activity along the east coast.
I'm see-ing air temps at sea level on saturday of 4-6c still which wont deliver snow to seal level.

Enough for disruption-very unlikely-the high pressure basically has not done what it was told by most of the models and has hung round long enough for normal atlantic factors to put some wood worm into it.

~To cut a long story short the likelyhood of it getting milder after tuesday is stronger than it getting colder.



Like I said all along and continue to maintain-Weather doesnt behave to what computers say it will do and talking about something a week ahead is nonsense tbh when reliablity historically is only about 4 days and even at that there can be hiccups.

Hence the need for the words possible in the subject line of threads like this.

Danno

Aaah, its not written off yet, hang on folks.

Gonzo

i didnt have much faith in these snow warnings to begin with as they were 2 weeks away when first reported which is a huge timegap - so much can happen in that time and mild weather usually always wins out in Ireland coz we are so far west and influenced by the warm atlantic, spring is fast approaching with January now behind us so the chances of us getting any substantial snow this winter is fadeing away but still the weather has surprised us before, you never know what will happen. my thoughts are now turning to my other favourite type of weather: hot, dry sunkised summers:)

Mothman

jd wrote:

Anyone want to to a glossary?
I mean 00z - cad e sin?
jd

I'll give it a go.

"z" is short for Zulu time which is the same zone as GMT (Greenich mean time) which is the time zone we are in in Winter. (Summertime is GMT +1 hour)

The "00" is the hour, in this case meaning midnight. So you can have anything from 00z to 23z (or should that be 24z?)

Hmmm
I recall being snowed in down here in mid february Gonzo ( well 6" anyway or 15 to 20 cms ) and that was in the last february easterly that I can remember- around '91 I think.
So while this one was incorrectly called....
February is still 28days of possibility.

After that timeframe , with the way our weather has been more influenced by the Atlantic than ever in the last 15 years-I'd say no significant cold spell possible after that except by extreme fluke.

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

I'll give it a go.

"z" is short for Zulu time which is the same zone as GMT (Greenich mean time) which is the time zone we are in in Winter. (Summertime is GMT +1 hour)

The "00" is the hour, in this case meaning midnight. So you can have anything from 00z to 23z (or should that be 24z?)

Correct iirc and a limited version of each of the model runs is made available about 3-4 hours after they are"run" on the site Matty H linked to in the links thread.

Now mothman-do you want to explain "cold outliers" and "mild outliers"

ninebeanrows

Well i have to disagree about this weekend Earthman
i think it will cold enough for snow to low levels Saturday
through Monday
With some troughs thrown in. a inch or two possible

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Well i have to disagree about this weekend Earthman
i think it will cold enough for snow to low levels Saturday
through Monday

I never disputed sunday or monday
I have said the fat lady is singing on an Easterly next week which was what you started this thread for.
I doubt very strongly if snow is going to fall to lower levels in Dublin during the daytime on saturday(maybe in the wee small hours of sunday morning)
Remember the system is moving very slowly down as is the colder air.
If you go back and read what I said, you will note, that, thats what I said...

The BBC lunchtime forecast today was pegging afternoon temps for saturday in NI around 5c
and warmer than that in the south of Ireland
If it snows at low levels with those sort of temperatures daytime saturday I'll have my hat with large helpings of sauce thanks.
Theres a much better chance on sunday into monday but I never said there wasnt.

ninebeanrows

Sorry Earthman thought you were talking about the whole spell
BTW the UKMO throws another spanner in the works, seems
like Tuesday is in the cold bag...

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1441.html

Ah dont get me wrong weathercheck.
All I'm saying to you is theres a lot of volatility in even the short term models at the moment as you know.
So absolutely anything could happen... eventually or nothing at all.
Thank the unprecedented HP in part for the chaos.

Its an ever changing situation.

The UKMO and our own MET are professionals, they are not going with a public forecast unless they have certainty.

Gonzo

just saw the latest forecast from the bbc and the weekend weather is now just a 'cool spell', temperatures of 6 to 9C over Ireland with a chance of wintry showers on northern hills, plenty of sunshine but feeling chill in the northerly wind - sharp night time frosts. They also claimed this to be the mildest January since 1990 in England and Wales and one of the dryest on record, not sure if those records apply similar to Ireland.

Mothman

Gonzo wrote:

They also claimed this to be the mildest January since 1990 in England and Wales and one of the dryest on record, not sure if those records apply similar to Ireland.

Generally Temps in Ireland were about 2C or a little more above normal in Jan 2005, though nowhere was as warm as Jan 2002 when temps were generally above 2.5C above normal. As for rain, parts of south and sotheast were below normal, rest of country was above.

I'd imagine 1995 would have been above normal aswell by a good bit given it was a long hot dry summer.
Kilkenny iirc had an average temp of 25c for the month of August that year.
The Azores high came up and parked itself over us for the summer
It was not a good summer of grass growth though :eek:

Anyway I'm off topic again.

The UKMO have toned down to the extent that snow on Saturday is even looking unlikely.

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

Anyway I'm off topic again.

You certainly are as we're talking about Jan....

ninebeanrows

Interesting UKMO at 144z
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

ninebeanrows

Interestign fax chart for Saturday, 528dam line well to the south
with a good few troughs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif