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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed (Threadbans in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    Why is that ? He could have attacked her at dawn, travelled home, cleaned up and brought the sleeping Jules her morning coffee in the timeframe of events based on what they both said in their statements.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    Never heard that one before - in relation to this particular case. It was mentioned in another case - the murder of Rachel O' Reilly by her husband Joe. Detectives believed he had stripped naked before entering the house to kill her, thinking he would leave no forensic evidence if he did.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    It depends what type of amplification was done from the extracted DNA. If they have clean DNA sequence of sufficient length then it can be run against DNA databases, which could provide a likely ancestral origin of the DNA. If the amplification was PCR for STR analysis that is not ethnic specific and does not provide such information.

    I suspect in the case of limited DNA quantity STR analysis would be preferred, as that is the gold standard for forensic purposes.

    I looked at the FSI website, and it is clear that STR analysis is used for most of their routine work. Even the photograph shown is someone analysing STR profiles. They mention Y profiling and mitochondrial DNA sequencing also, but I don't think that would be employed for limited sample type as extracted here, particularly with the high likelihood of degradation. https://forensicscience.ie/dna-and-biological-analysis/dna-analysis/

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 499 ✭✭bjsc


    She didn't take the bags to the dump on 23rd as they were still by the side of the road in pictures taken on 24th.

    As far as I am aware they did not go to Cork on either 23rd or 24th. Shirley was allowed to go shopping around 14.30 on the afternoon of 23rd but Alfie did not go with her. They were both there on 24th as Shirley's car can be seen in the photos parked at the roadside and Leo Bolger can be seen crossing the field to feed his horses and has said he visited Shirley and Alfie at the same time.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 499 ✭✭bjsc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,064 ✭✭✭chooseusername




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Not sure why she would go to the dump without the bags, but maybe she is just misremembering, or perhaps got the day mixed up.

    FWIW here is the quote I was referring to, but it is from over a decade later:

    "……They didn’t know the area. After that a lot of coming and going. Interviews, interviewed separately. We weren’t allowed to go out at all. Eventually when they did allow us to go, I was allowed to go to the dump much later in the afternoon. We went across the field so as not to interfere with the scene.

    DR.   For clarification, at the end of the day were you allowed to take your car?

    A.      The car was beyond the incident on the road. I know the police had a look at the garbage before……"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 499 ✭✭bjsc


    Her original statement and that of one of the guards both state that she was allowed to leave to go shopping but the bags were removed from the car before she left and placed on the roadside. They were still there the next day, as evidenced by the photos. It is unclear when or even if they were ever searched.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,006 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Jules Thomas- will be writing to Gardai for the release of the DNA results- of course we know it’s not Ian’s DNA - she’s stronger than ever that Bailey didn’t do it - have to say I’m in agreement with her on that front - certainly no evidence he did it at the very least

    https://archive.ph/Rbd3q



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 308 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    It's an active investigation, in reality she will know that nothing is going to be released that does not implicate Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,187 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Indeed. Still all those possible profiles shouldn't be that hard to trace - you would think. A dozen or so and then the unknown or unknows' DNA could be compared with the suspects on file? Seems to be taking a long time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Unless that is, they recovered a profile which doesn't match the profile of any existing or previous suspects and haven't been able to find a match to date.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,736 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    I think the State, as usual, is worried about being sued over shortcomings in the investigation. I'm old enough to remember the scandal over patients infected with Hepatitis in the 1990s, and the stonewalling of releasing information.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,187 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,006 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I am assuming that’s what’s happening right now- it’s probably a big assumption though- they had an original list of I think someone here said 50 suspects or people of interest ? So do they have all their DNA and have they conclusively eliminated them from their enquiries? I’d doubt it - some died months after Bailey was arrested and in subsequent years



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,216 ✭✭✭rightmove


    This is exactly what happened in:

    • The Golden State Killer (USA) — offender never on any suspect list
    • The Lynette White case (UK) — DNA matched a man who had never been a suspect
    • The Rachel Nickell case (UK) — original suspect list was completely wrong
    • The Canal Killer (Belgium) — DNA didn’t match any of the 100+ suspects


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,020 ✭✭✭almostover


    I'm currently holidaying on the Mizen peninsula. Hard to think it's over 30 years since this murder took place. Drove past Kealfadda bridge today. The one thing that struck me is that the terrain in the area near the murder scene is very rocky, with dense scrub / furze and likely very wet in winter.

    To cross that terrain on foot, on a winter's night, murder a woman violently yet not leave a trace of DNA at the scene and return to bed without anyone noticing seems highly implausible to me. And to do so after spending an evening of drinking makes it even more implausible. I think it's far more likely the perpetrator came and left by car or was in very close proximity to the cottage already.

    I can see why the DPP didn't put this case to trial on more than one occasion. A prosecution trying to get a jury to believe that a drunk man crossed a couple of miles of rough terrain, in the middle of a winter's night to violently murder a woman who at most he met once fleetingly and returned home without leaving a scrap of physical evidence at the scene was never going to meet the threshold of guilty beyond reasonable doubt.

    Post edited by almostover on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,865 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Would it be legally possible for the family in France to sue the Irish state for the botched up investigation? The surviving family members would hardly have given up on the murder, I take it?

    I also never thought the murderer hiked over the terrain. Too risky, stumble fall, injure yourself, walk with a limp for days, all to obvious. Either he drove or he came on foot but used the roads. Suppose a car approached at night, he would have heard it a while before and would have hidden with ease. Suppose there was really a man at Kealfadda bridge that night, it's highly likely it was just a coincidence and not even remotely even Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch


    It has always seemed to me that the only reason for the Gardai to advance the theory that he walked from home to Dreenane was that forensic tests on the only car that was available to him came up negative. And for a man to engage in a bloody and prolonged attack, which certainly would have left blood on his hands, clothing and shoes, then jump into a car and drive it, without leaving any trace of blood, fibres, hair etc on the upholstery, controls or pedals is extremely improbable. Hence "he walked"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,160 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Anyone who thought the DNA might match Ian Bailey's doesn't understand this investigation.

    One of the strongest arguments which the DPP's Office made in favour of Bailey's innocence (in addition to the endless list of reasons why the Garda failed to prove his guilt) is that he immediately volunteered to give a blood sample although he had seen the bloody stain on Sophie's door. So he was confident that his blood would not be found there.

    The new DNA technology will at least narrow the search for this murderer. I assume that at this stage - a year after they began using M-Vac - the Gardai know if the DNA is "Irish" i.e. almost certainly from a local man, or not i.e. from an outsider e.g. French or English.

    If the DNA is "Irish", that eliminates Bailey and the original French suspects, making fools of the French judiciary and putting the spotlight back on the locals. In that case, we may never be told.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    If they are doing STR analysis, then that wouldn't yield any information regarding ethnicity of someone. That's not how it works.

    I'd be surprised if FSI would use any other method for matching samples to suspects. STR is hold standard, changing to a different analysis method would require extensive validation.

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    One of the biggest problems the gardai have is that regardless of whether it was true or not, it is clear they convinced the family categorically that Bailey did it. There has never been any statements from the family that questioned whether the gardai had it right. I would imagine how the whole thing was handled between the family and the gardai could become a scandal in and of itself if they ever do question it, and if Bailey didn't do it, and I was her brother or son, I would be apoplectic. I'm sure there would have to be some form of compensation too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,865 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    If it was Bailey, he certainly didn't drive. At least that is certain. However even if, he wouldn't be so dumb to take a detour to Kaelfadda bridge to "clean up" in darkness and nearly zero degrees cold? Whatever Marie Farrell had seen or not seen is untrue anyway…

    I think this is very much driven by her son. He still to date seems to believe categorically that it was Bailey and that "every evidence" ( whatever he considers evidence) seems to point to Bailey, and nobody else.

    However I doubt any lawyer in France would see it the same way and take on this case?

    The re opening of the cold case investigation may either have been admitting by the Gardai that they botched up and wanted to at least attempt to rectify things or an attempt to stop any possible litigation from the French side?

    All potentially possible….?



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