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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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Charts aren't as good today as recent days in terms of a nice high pressure cell centred right over us…though the AI models still seem more bullish on a greater push of high pressure north.
But some really staggering heat plumes on the move north still remains a big trend.
We still look like being on the right side of ridging for now, so lots of warm to hot weather to come potentially. Could be some NW/SE splits if the high doesn't ridge far enough north. But plenty of warm air about.
Could get seriously hot if one of these plumes hits us. Looks more solid the SE of England once again will sizzle.
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todays GFS 12z currently rolling out not very encouraging for high pressure any time soon. We get a plume of major heat which pushes north-eastwards over France and into the UK but this misses Ireland completely and into next week the Atlantic takes over for most of North-Western Europe.
In short the North Atlantic has loads of energy and high pressure really struggles to get anywhere near us and any feeling of warmth will be a glancing blow. If we are still looking at this pattern 2 weeks from now on the FI charts it may be time to start getting worried. For England and Wales this is a big downgrade on the duration of warm to hot weather there so this could be an outlier.
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Yes, output like a lot of the classic summer plumes where you flick on the telly and it's scorching at Wimbledon and you look out the window and it's cloudy and 17-20c.
Just can't seem to get a sustained push of heights far enough north to take over. It's been some two weeks now if the models toying with high pressure building but slowly retreating and flattening things again, too much westerly momentum in the Atlantic. SE of the UK can get away with this, sometimes the E/SE of Ireland too…it's how we can get those random largely sunny warm days in Dublin, while out West it's cloudy and cooler.
UKMO 12z looks better with the high still nudging north towards us. But if it rolled on how would it look?
Nonetheless, even on the flatter charts, the airmass is still that bit warmer than early June so we should have better temperatures moving forward, for the east anyway.
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Not seeing the very high temps ( mid to high 20's ) of previous runs a few days ago but not too bad all the same from the ECM.
GFS is not showing heights as good and has lower temps. ACCESS-G looks quite warm overall and UKMO initially looking warm as John Icy said above. In general the ECM showing areas getting high teens to low 20's and at the end of the run showing up into the mid 20's at times. GFS much lower on latest run and cool nights for the time of year so a big difference between the models really, I note though that the GFS 0Z was looking more like the current ECM, will see if there is more alignment one way or the other tomorrow. I get the feeling the GFS might be under doing it and showing it to be too cool but will see.
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GFS 12z is a total flip to yesterdays script, instead of flat pancake westerlies we now have proper heat across the entire country starting from Monday and becoming very warm to hot in places and this also includes the north-west of the country.
what can possibly go wrong!
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The GEM is the most convinced that there will be fairly significant warm up next week.
GFS is going for something similar but with more scatter than the GEM, the GFS is not totally convinced yet. ECM says no for the most part, it does turn a bit warmer but remains mostly Atlantic based.
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It's not even funny anymore, most insane UKMO run I've ever seen just casually with the 20C 850hPa through the entire country up to the central belt of Scotland and even getting widespread 23/24C.
For context, July 2022, when Phoenix Park had 33.0C, had 20C over most but not all of the country with 23C to the east so it even beats that. Easily a widespread 30s scenario. But cloud and instability increased later in the morning to early afternoon hours in July 2022 which limited the potential.
GEFS 0z had plenty of hot runs in its ensemble as well, this one is for Castlebar! This is heatwave territory.
GEM and ECM are more mixed with somewhat "fresher" air coming out around the high pressure on Tue/Wed but are also warm with 10C+ @ 850hPa staying over Ireland through their runs.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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