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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Summer 2026.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Summer begins tomorrow on Bank Holiday Monday and the start of June, opening 7 to 10 day period is looking poor with plenty of rain and showers. Low pressure will dominate our weather over the coming week and possibly second week of June.

Next weekend looks cool and wet with the green washing machine spinning over us.

This setup carries on to the following weekend

By mid June there are distant signs that our weather may begin to settle down again with high pressure but this is a long way off and therefore unreliable.

GFS ensembles reflects this with a fairly wet and often cool opening 10 days of the month with hints towards a drying and warming trend as we push towards the middle of June.

Other models are similar showing an unsettled opening 2 weeks to June, ECM remains unsettled from start to finish with no real hints towards high pressure in this mornings model.

GEM also showing Atlantic domination from start to finish with the azores high staying to our south.

Rainfall amounts look highish towards the west and around average in eastern areas but this changes from run to run.

Hopefully in about a weeks time we will start to see a more definite trend of an improvement towards mid month.

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John.Icy

Charts aren't as good today as recent days in terms of a nice high pressure cell centred right over us…though the AI models still seem more bullish on a greater push of high pressure north.

But some really staggering heat plumes on the move north still remains a big trend.

We still look like being on the right side of ridging for now, so lots of warm to hot weather to come potentially. Could be some NW/SE splits if the high doesn't ridge far enough north. But plenty of warm air about.

Could get seriously hot if one of these plumes hits us. Looks more solid the SE of England once again will sizzle.

Gonzo

todays GFS 12z currently rolling out not very encouraging for high pressure any time soon. We get a plume of major heat which pushes north-eastwards over France and into the UK but this misses Ireland completely and into next week the Atlantic takes over for most of North-Western Europe.

In short the North Atlantic has loads of energy and high pressure really struggles to get anywhere near us and any feeling of warmth will be a glancing blow. If we are still looking at this pattern 2 weeks from now on the FI charts it may be time to start getting worried. For England and Wales this is a big downgrade on the duration of warm to hot weather there so this could be an outlier.

John.Icy

Yes, output like a lot of the classic summer plumes where you flick on the telly and it's scorching at Wimbledon and you look out the window and it's cloudy and 17-20c.

Just can't seem to get a sustained push of heights far enough north to take over. It's been some two weeks now if the models toying with high pressure building but slowly retreating and flattening things again, too much westerly momentum in the Atlantic. SE of the UK can get away with this, sometimes the E/SE of Ireland too…it's how we can get those random largely sunny warm days in Dublin, while out West it's cloudy and cooler.

UKMO 12z looks better with the high still nudging north towards us. But if it rolled on how would it look?

Nonetheless, even on the flatter charts, the airmass is still that bit warmer than early June so we should have better temperatures moving forward, for the east anyway.

Meteorite58

Not seeing the very high temps ( mid to high 20's ) of previous runs a few days ago but not too bad all the same from the ECM.

GFS is not showing heights as good and has lower temps. ACCESS-G looks quite warm overall and UKMO initially looking warm as John Icy said above. In general the ECM showing areas getting high teens to low 20's and at the end of the run showing up into the mid 20's at times. GFS much lower on latest run and cool nights for the time of year so a big difference between the models really, I note though that the GFS 0Z was looking more like the current ECM, will see if there is more alignment one way or the other tomorrow. I get the feeling the GFS might be under doing it and showing it to be too cool but will see.

Gonzo

GFS 12z is a total flip to yesterdays script, instead of flat pancake westerlies we now have proper heat across the entire country starting from Monday and becoming very warm to hot in places and this also includes the north-west of the country.

what can possibly go wrong!

Lucreto

Hopefully this won't effect us

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:wfkzisn6oxetupnvxizitxgx/post/3moi47k3eps2e?ref_src=embed

squarecircles

classic Gfs, it will flip flop and prick around with this scenario for a few more days, building up our hopes….and then….

Watch the ECM show the exact opposite this evening, you could set your watch to this scutter…

.Donegal.

Not to be miserable. I read on netweather that GFS is 6th place when it comes to verification these days. New AI models knocking it down but it’s behind GEM as well.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124558259#Comment_124558259

That is correct though that only refers to the operational as far as I'm aware. Not sure what the verification is like for the ensembles. If I were to give the GFS credit compared to any other model is that on the occasions we do get extremes, it will pick up a signal on them better than the others do including the ECM though that will also make it throw out some whacky runs in of itself whereas say ECM is more grounded.

squarecircles

annnd bingo, the ECM shows the exact opposite with the cut of low slobbering itself up over us.

Gonzo

The GEM is the most convinced that there will be fairly significant warm up next week.

GFS is going for something similar but with more scatter than the GEM, the GFS is not totally convinced yet. ECM says no for the most part, it does turn a bit warmer but remains mostly Atlantic based.

Condor24

Pity GFS is being written off more and more these days. The magic 20c 850hpa line comes close to and indeed over the south and southeast within the reasonably reliable time frame. 30+c widespread over inland counties if verified. I'd be happy with 22-25 and a few sunny days. Looks brutally hot for southern England and France. And I've just seen the UKMO run for next Wednesday. Sure 6 days but not a million miles away and it is record breaking levels here. 35c somewhere surely if verified. Some of the more savvy ones might pick out the charts and post. In winter we say get the toboggans ready, now I'd say cooling fans.

sryanbruen

It's not even funny anymore, most insane UKMO run I've ever seen just casually with the 20C 850hPa through the entire country up to the central belt of Scotland and even getting widespread 23/24C.

For context, July 2022, when Phoenix Park had 33.0C, had 20C over most but not all of the country with 23C to the east so it even beats that. Easily a widespread 30s scenario. But cloud and instability increased later in the morning to early afternoon hours in July 2022 which limited the potential.

GEFS 0z had plenty of hot runs in its ensemble as well, this one is for Castlebar! This is heatwave territory.

GEM and ECM are more mixed with somewhat "fresher" air coming out around the high pressure on Tue/Wed but are also warm with 10C+ @ 850hPa staying over Ireland through their runs.

JanuarySnowstor

Have we ever seen these uppers before??

Gonzo

next week starting to look serious on some of the models particularly the UKMO, but in reality we will probably get something more toned down with temperatures of 21 to 26C but it would be fascinating if this morning UKMO verified.

Condor24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124559686#Comment_124559686

Red warnings eh JS? It's hard to believe they'd verify. Mid twenties is our level normally. That's mid thirties with the right combinations.

snowgal

wowsa, that would be some heat!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124559686#Comment_124559686

I've never seen those uppers before only 20⁰c that would mean possibly our record could be beaten hopefully

Condor24

Latest GFS somewhat downgrades the potential heat but it does this cyclical upgrade downgrade with hot weather. But still mid to high twenties inland at least during next week looking more likely now. We'll know for sure by the weekend.

Hairypoppins

High 20s will do nicely

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124559686#Comment_124559686

I gave you your answer in my post above before you posted JS. Close but not quite.

squarecircles

i wonder what would happen, if anything, if we went into the mid 30s, tarmac melting, electrical circuits malfunctioning, would be interesting to see how our sub standard 3rd world infrastruture would cope.

Working class heroes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124560202#Comment_124560202

Never been to a third world country, have you?

Deep_Six

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124560210#Comment_124560210

I knew that user would be along to pour negativity over the upcoming forecast.

Miserable in good weather and miserable in bad weather.

paulhac

I actually enjoy Squarecircles’s posts, they cheer me up in a strange kind of way😂

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124560262#Comment_124560262

They are bloody hilarious and cheer me up too!

nacho libre

I for one hope the UKMO is over egging it. Low twenties to mid twenties is acceptable, anything above starts to get unpleasant. 15 years ago temperatures in the high twenties to low 30s would not bother me, but now they do

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124560294#Comment_124560294

I know but I want our record temperature beaten just so it's no longer 33.3c we have the second coldest highest temperature with Iceland below us at 30c

Billcarson

Thinking of the potential heat for next week has me sweating already 😫🤣.

I'd much rather more in the way of pleasant warmth. That heat to our south will probably get us sooner or later. Unlike the mid Jan to mid Feb period where the cold to our Northeast couldn't reach us. Seems to be alot easier for heat to reach us these days then cold spells.....

Tzmaster90

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124559996#Comment_124559996

it would be fascinating what are you smoking it will be too hotttttttttttt.