Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Yeah, I wouldn't mind us taking the punt and try the 3 games this summer without Furlong or Bealham, and roll with Clarkson, Illo and maybe O'Toole as the three THPs in the squad.

I don't think they give up a whole lot as scrummagers at this point anyway, but they definitely offer more energy, carrying, tackling, rucking around the field IMO.

They’ve shown very little interest in TOT as a tight head, I’d be surprised if that changes now. It’s very unlikely a fit Furlong gets left at home and tbh, if we’re bringing Illo (or some other young TH) and a rake of inexperienced LHs, it’s probably not a good idea.

I struggle to get a clear read or analysis on it anywhere, but see it is reported in things like the Belfast Telegraph as though he has retained his IQ eligibility, so would imagine/hope they're verified that or heard it from Ulster Rugby.

It's good to see him back if that's the case. I know he had some injury struggles, but always found it a bit odd how quickly Munster moved on from him. He started against Leinster in his last season (and had started 4 of the first 6 games), got injured, and then featured a few times later that season and got cut.

That's really not how we gague decline in any walk of life. Of course you take recent performance into account when trying to predict future performance. Recent decline would obviously indicate a trajectory of decline.

If he hasn't Declined at all in the last 3 years, that would strengthen the case for backing him over the next year. I've no idea why you chose this line of argument. Its bonkers to exclude the last few years from the calculation.

The other potential point is the list of guys you're mentioning here:

 I saw a noticeable decline in the performances of Henshaw, Ringrose, SP, Osborne, Furlong, Lowe and Beirne

5/7 of these guys were on the Lions tour, so it's been a remarkably long season for them. I don't actually think there was a noticeable decline in Sam Prendergast's performances this season; he was really good in some games (Ulster away in the URC, Lions QF in URC playoffs etc).

You also called out Keenan, who also went on the Lions tour and missed a big chunk of time this season.

For me, the players who've noticeably improved this season:

• Leinster: Joe McCarthy, Tom Clarkson, Tommy O'Brien (all as you mentioned), Paddy McCarthy (prior to injury), James Culhane, Diarmuid Mangan
• Connacht: Easier to list guys who didn't improve arguably, but noticeable improvements from Cian Prendergast, Sean Jansen, Sam Illo, Darragh Murray
• Munster: Alex Kendellen, Andrew Smith
• Ulster: Lots of players again, including James McCormick, Charlie Irvine, Joe Hopes, Dave McCann, Nick Timoney, Conor McKee, Nathan Doak, Zac Ward, Stuart McCloskey

Well it's also asking the question about where they're relatively improving from. Connacht and Ulster finished 13th and 14th respectively in the URC last season. They won a cumulative 13 games out of 36, and they're both relatively young and inexperienced squads, so arguably the only way was up for them. That's not to say I don't think both squads are being very well coached, but there is a relativity to some of this.

In Leinster's case; they won 16 out of 18 games in 24/25 (topping the league by 8 points), won the league final (by 25 points) and then sent 14 players on tour with the Lions. They haven't been at their best this season, but they still finished second in the league, made the European Cup Final and are in the league final on Friday. Even with that; I listed out 6 players above who have progressed and improved this year, so I don't think it's quite as stark an issue as you're making out.

Yeah I don't disagree with any of that but I would include a few younger players who have improved like Jack Boyle. Younger players are easy to exclude because they're improving with age and experience.

But then again, players in their prime are experiencing diminishing returns in terms of improvements. Doris is at the top of his game so I wouldn't expect huge improvements from him so it's hard to judge. And the older players are, well, getting older, so I wouldn't expect much improvement in them either.

Ringrose is 31 so not over the hill by any means, but I'm not sure I'd expect big improvements in his game at that age. On the other hand, McCloskey has had a resurgence in the last few years and he's 33 so improvements do happen at that age.

As I'm typing that I feel like I'm making excuses for the coaching in leinster because the Ulster lads are doing OK and Connacht players did well in the second half of the season.

Yeah, it's unrealistic to expect much if any deviation from the players who've been involved up to now. The one change I'm hoping for is Postlethwaite replacing Henshaw.

Murray versus Edogbo could go either way.

I'd be astounded if one of the centre options like Postelwaite or Tector aren't included in this tour. It would seem very short sighed to leave all of them at home. We are absolutely in the toilet behind GR at 13, Farrell needs to start working someone else in. And Furlong and Beirne need the Summer off. Farrell got them for the Lions, he made his bed.

Nobody is going to be taking the ‘Nations League’ thing seriously. England are leaving Itoje at home. And I guarantee NZ and SA are going to be rotating heavily and giving guys opportunities. You’re right that Ireland probably will go all out to win it at the expense of World Cup preparation.

I'll start by saying I'd like to see us blood some new talent at prop at centre in these games (and have already posted I'd leave Furlong & Bealham at home etc), but would flag there is still a balancing act in these games where we have to send enough of our front liners to help sell tickets / TV rights etc for the Southern Hemisphere countries.

There was widespread frustration in NZ last year at the callow team France sent down (albeit they gave a great account of themselves in the test series), and you have to figure stuff like that will figure into discussions going the other way. It would frustrate the hell out of us (and make tickets less attractive to shift) if the Southern Hemisphere teams started sending development teams north in November every year. There's a quid pro quo to this sort of thing.

One potentially very interesting selection could be Jamie Benson. Harlequins 10/12/15 who’s signed with Ulster for next season. Looks a very handy player from what I’ve seen of him. It looks like Crowley is ruled out so there’s an opening in one of the 10 slots. Could be worth getting him in and having a look.