Its not relevant. You are not making a decision to contract him 10 years ago. You are making a decision to contract him over the next 12 months,
So what his performance years ago is irrelevant, can he perform now? yes based on 6 nations and recent performances
Will he dramtically decline in 12 months? very doubtful but you can never be 100% with any player
Yeah, I wouldn't mind us taking the punt and try the 3 games this summer without Furlong or Bealham, and roll with Clarkson, Illo and maybe O'Toole as the three THPs in the squad.
I don't think they give up a whole lot as scrummagers at this point anyway, but they definitely offer more energy, carrying, tackling, rucking around the field IMO.
Is there not a real move now to move TOT to loose head? Played the last four six nations rounds either starting at loose or covering from bench.
Plus on top of that ulster have just signed two tight heads in Bello and Knox, and haven't replaced bell at loose. Maybe ulster aren't happy with Creans development at 1 and are looking at options
They’ve shown very little interest in TOT as a tight head, I’d be surprised if that changes now. It’s very unlikely a fit Furlong gets left at home and tbh, if we’re bringing Illo (or some other young TH) and a rake of inexperienced LHs, it’s probably not a good idea.
Is the Knox move actually confirmed yet? Was it ever concluded on as to whether or not he actually meets the IQ threshold?
Yeah, it is possible (and logical) that O'Toole shifts to LHP. He'd make great sense in this squad as an extra prop anyway with the ability to cover both sides of the scrum though (something that will likely get him in a RWC squad too).
I think the move for Ulster makes sense too as they've two good young THPs in Scott Wilson and Tom McAllister it's worth continuing to develop.
not "confirmed" as in, has happened, but it has been announced in the media, so take that for what it is.
as to his qualification, he had actually qualified for ireland BEFORE they extended the residency duration, therefore he remains qualified until he plays for another nation.
Knox cannot be IQ because he didn’t represent us before he left?
My understanding is that going to France reset the clock and he now needs another 5-year period to become IQ?
I struggle to get a clear read or analysis on it anywhere, but see it is reported in things like the Belfast Telegraph as though he has retained his IQ eligibility, so would imagine/hope they're verified that or heard it from Ulster Rugby.
It's good to see him back if that's the case. I know he had some injury struggles, but always found it a bit odd how quickly Munster moved on from him. He started against Leinster in his last season (and had started 4 of the first 6 games), got injured, and then featured a few times later that season and got cut.
thats a good point !!
that was the whole crux of the Folau Fakatava case where he gained the right to play for NZ in December 2020, but as there were no games, he lost the right to play for them as the eligibility changed to 5 years in 01 Jan 2021.
NZ took the case to WR and won.
France tried to argue the same for Meafou, but he hadn't the requisite 3 years done by the end of the initial 36 month phase.
That's really not how we gague decline in any walk of life. Of course you take recent performance into account when trying to predict future performance. Recent decline would obviously indicate a trajectory of decline.
If he hasn't Declined at all in the last 3 years, that would strengthen the case for backing him over the next year. I've no idea why you chose this line of argument. Its bonkers to exclude the last few years from the calculation.
Sidebar thought on "RECENT DECLINE":
I cant think of too many of the established Irish players at Leinster and Munster who have significantly improved either over the last 2 seasons at their provinces.
Joe McCarthy the obv exception. Clarkson and TOB the others, although they are only recently established Irish players.
(Baird until injury (!x2!))
Provincially I saw a noticeable decline in the performances of Henshaw, Ringrose, SP, Osborne, Furlong, Lowe and Beirne this season in particular.
JC and Casey in the same bracket at times this season.
Even Keenan (Mr Reliable) looks way off his old self. This could be injury related, but hes making some basic errors (handling, passing, kicking) and looks lost defensively. Most of us acknowledge the reason for the latter.
After the loss v France I think I might have apportioned too much of the blame on Farrell & Co.
My Theory - The bulk of the Irish team aren't as well coached as they used to be at those provinces and Ireland are suffering the consequences.
The other potential point is the list of guys you're mentioning here:
I saw a noticeable decline in the performances of Henshaw, Ringrose, SP, Osborne, Furlong, Lowe and Beirne
5/7 of these guys were on the Lions tour, so it's been a remarkably long season for them. I don't actually think there was a noticeable decline in Sam Prendergast's performances this season; he was really good in some games (Ulster away in the URC, Lions QF in URC playoffs etc).
You also called out Keenan, who also went on the Lions tour and missed a big chunk of time this season.
For me, the players who've noticeably improved this season:
Yes thats definitely also a factor for 'Recent Decline'. Keenan - I did also stipulate injury.
I think its more than a fair statement to say - they certainly haven't improved, which is like most of the Leinster & Munster Irish players, over the last 2 seasons. That is the greater point that Farrell & Co. are having to contend with.
(SP - you may remember our conversation for for the EC Final!)
Your other point about the Ulster & Connacht players who have improved - No mystery there. Good Coaching.
Well it's also asking the question about where they're relatively improving from. Connacht and Ulster finished 13th and 14th respectively in the URC last season. They won a cumulative 13 games out of 36, and they're both relatively young and inexperienced squads, so arguably the only way was up for them. That's not to say I don't think both squads are being very well coached, but there is a relativity to some of this.
In Leinster's case; they won 16 out of 18 games in 24/25 (topping the league by 8 points), won the league final (by 25 points) and then sent 14 players on tour with the Lions. They haven't been at their best this season, but they still finished second in the league, made the European Cup Final and are in the league final on Friday. Even with that; I listed out 6 players above who have progressed and improved this year, so I don't think it's quite as stark an issue as you're making out.
Easier to list players in Connacht who didn't improve? Almost everybody improved.
Yeah I don't disagree with any of that but I would include a few younger players who have improved like Jack Boyle. Younger players are easy to exclude because they're improving with age and experience.
But then again, players in their prime are experiencing diminishing returns in terms of improvements. Doris is at the top of his game so I wouldn't expect huge improvements from him so it's hard to judge. And the older players are, well, getting older, so I wouldn't expect much improvement in them either.
Ringrose is 31 so not over the hill by any means, but I'm not sure I'd expect big improvements in his game at that age. On the other hand, McCloskey has had a resurgence in the last few years and he's 33 so improvements do happen at that age.
As I'm typing that I feel like I'm making excuses for the coaching in leinster because the Ulster lads are doing OK and Connacht players did well in the second half of the season.
That's literally what I said?
Stark? No. I would agree.
Its a good Qs - Where are they improving from?
Leinster - The Irish players were coached at an elite level under Lancaster. Now they simply aren't at the same level.
I'm confident in that comparison & the eye test.
On your point about Leinster results - We could discuss all day.
Isnt that what they should be achieving? Im sure you wouldn't expect anything less from them. Or would you? (Face value Qs btw!)
I dont. That is the standard for the province who have a generational set of forwards and what? - 23 plus Internationals.
Im sure there will be the usuals (not you) racing to distill this point down as "Spolied and Entitled"
Cue GT:
Some of their wider fan base have become spoiled and entitled. Unless Leinster win a Champions Cup, their season is seen as a failure by many. It’s as if the team now owe some supporters at least one or two more Champions Cups. They don’t. They don’t owe anybody anything.
Combination of entitled fans and big-stadium fatigue sees Leinster’s appeal fall sharply – The Irish Times
That of course is not what most of the supporters expect. When a team like Leinster are completely and utterly dominated, outplayed, outthought, outfought and outclassed in a European Cup final - THIS is what supporters DONT expect.
There was no expectation to win a EC this season (amongst those who are blessed with eyes), witnessing last years years game v Northampton told us everything we already knew.
-This team is further away than ever. Its because of the coaches. Not the calibre of players-
So it may not be a Stark decrease, but the incremental effect of years of this coaching, the selections, the game planning, it all culminates in the abject team performance v Bordeaux.
Winning a URC shouldn't cloud the issue - The Irish coaches are suffering the consequences of the coaching group at Leinster.
Yes I also agree with that point - it can be harder to expect huge or big improvements for the likes of Doris & Ringrose.
I think thats it - we arent seeing, or 'expecting' huge improvements. What we are seeing is a decline in the performance of players, particularly the ones I mentioned.
For me the decline is a two-fold issue. The basic skills of players, particularly at Leinster, have markedly declined. Both in terms of passing, and an understanding of how to attack. The other issue is a lack of elite creative players, certainly in the backs, who generate line breaks. Watching the Chiefs in the Super Rugby semi, do we have a single player capable of unleashing that sort of counter attacking from deep? Baloucoune perhaps, if he's given the space, Ward potentially. From a Leinster perspective, the players are going through the motions of an ineffective system, and that's bled into the national team.
Yeah, it's unrealistic to expect much if any deviation from the players who've been involved up to now. The one change I'm hoping for is Postlethwaite replacing Henshaw.
Murray versus Edogbo could go either way.
I'd put Alex Usanov on the list of Leinster players who have improved this season. He's only 20 but has been part of big games in this late stage of the season and played well also. It's in the midst of a loosehead crisis, but he's still doing the business anyway.
Jerry Cahir gets more plaudits, but Usanov has probably usurped him in the pecking order.
Sorry, I read it wrong. Apologies.
If we’re being honest, Furlong, Beirne, Aki and Henshaw should be nowhere near this tour. We’ll obviously pick them, but I don’t think any other nation would take them. It’s a year out from the World Cup. They’re all in their mid 30s. They all have had injury issues. A nation with any sense would give them the summer off to let their bodies rest and use the opportunity to build depth. But we’re Ireland, so every game is a World Cup final.
I'd be astounded if one of the centre options like Postelwaite or Tector aren't included in this tour. It would seem very short sighed to leave all of them at home. We are absolutely in the toilet behind GR at 13, Farrell needs to start working someone else in. And Furlong and Beirne need the Summer off. Farrell got them for the Lions, he made his bed.
This isn't just a tour though, it's the first year of the Nations series. I don't know if everyone will take it seriously (looking at France) but I expect Ireland will.
The time for leaving a bun g of senior players at home in the summer or autumn is gone. Ireland ever did it anyway.
Nobody is going to be taking the ‘Nations League’ thing seriously. England are leaving Itoje at home. And I guarantee NZ and SA are going to be rotating heavily and giving guys opportunities. You’re right that Ireland probably will go all out to win it at the expense of World Cup preparation.
why should we take it seriously though?
Like it’s a silly competition to try and add some flavour to friendlies (and I know we don’t call them friendlies but that’s what’s they are
To not use this as a development simmer would be incredibly short sighted. Ranking points are already set, the RWC draw is made, have this to blood talent.
I'll start by saying I'd like to see us blood some new talent at prop at centre in these games (and have already posted I'd leave Furlong & Bealham at home etc), but would flag there is still a balancing act in these games where we have to send enough of our front liners to help sell tickets / TV rights etc for the Southern Hemisphere countries.
There was widespread frustration in NZ last year at the callow team France sent down (albeit they gave a great account of themselves in the test series), and you have to figure stuff like that will figure into discussions going the other way. It would frustrate the hell out of us (and make tickets less attractive to shift) if the Southern Hemisphere teams started sending development teams north in November every year. There's a quid pro quo to this sort of thing.
Leo Barre. Attissogbe, Le Garrec, Meafou, Colombe and others made their debuts last year. So giving opportunities to new players worked out for them. Everybody should learn from that.
One potentially very interesting selection could be Jamie Benson. Harlequins 10/12/15 who’s signed with Ulster for next season. Looks a very handy player from what I’ve seen of him. It looks like Crowley is ruled out so there’s an opening in one of the 10 slots. Could be worth getting him in and having a look.
