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Air Corps / Force General Discussion - Aircraft, Manpower, Policy

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,264 ✭✭✭thomil


    I'm not sure I'd go along with that. I do believe that it's right to be sceptical about defence matters in Ireland, but I feel that many of the posts in this thread and the other ones have gone far beyond scepticism, with way too much credence given to rumours and the like. The basic fact is that this is a civilian forum, and we're all outsiders looking in. Unless proven otherwise, we should assume that no poster on here has access to the inner workings of the DoD, is involved in any of the acquisition processes mentioned, or has the necessary clearance to discuss these matters.

    In such a situation, it's important not to confuse the absence of evidence with the evidence of absence. This is especially the case when it comes to large-scale acquisitions such as the projects you mentioned, where a foreign nation has a significant interest in seeing these projects through. Also, the systems in question are an order of magnitude more complex than anything the Defence Forces have acquired in a generation, and given the current security situation, it would seem to me to simply be prudent to keep a tight lid on these projects and any new capabilities until they are in place.

    Again, viewing the DoD with a healthy degree of scepticism is just smart. However, it's a thin line between scepticism and cynicism, and I feel like these threads tend to pole vault from one to the other.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    As I said in the other place, nothing the various actors have done over the last 4 years gives any reason to give them the benefit of doubt, or to do anything but assume the worst unless there's a contract with penalities to force their hands. Fact is, defence spending both Current and Capital with inflation taken into account remains far below LoA2 level and effectively impossible to reach that effective level by 2028, just as the suggested force numbers for LoA2 are now impossible.

    In terms of your comment about rumours, fair enough, however its interesting timing that we get a rumour that the 139 replacement is kicked, and then shortly afterwards the announcement that the Air Security Strategy is kicked as well (presuming because the strategy gave another unacceptable answer). We have evidence of how this plays out, Procurement was paused/slowed with the excuse of "wait for the Commissions Report", then "wait for the Implementation Plan", then "wait for the National Development plan", kick after kick after kick. It's very reasonable to assume that now for the AC at least its going to be "we can't buy X, because we have to wait for the Strategy that's waiting on another Strategy, and oh look its time for another review because events have changed".

    Even the point about how complex the tech/procurement is… It is for us absolutely, but we are not inventing the wheel, there's feck all reason other than resistance from the stakeholders to explain why procurement of radar systems has taken as long as it has.

    And while we here operate with a limited access to details, you'd imagine the EU Commission might have some greater insight into the plans of the Government and even they are yelling at us.

    So yeah, I'll stick with the view that the DOD and Co. are acting in bad faith, and short of actual signed and sealed contracts, that they will find creative ways to continue their 100 year policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    the only important bit for the powers that be from the Commission

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0603/1576556-new-government-jet-fitted-out-with-cream-coloured-seating/

    Note how that didn’t need any strategy or consideration.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    don’t think so, at the time it was omitted to get there plane in service, because that’s the bit of defence spending that needed to be rushed.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,093 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Sorry Sparky, but I don't think so.

    There is far more going on than the malingering of the DoD or the sandbagging of DPER.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    and as that article points out we agreed to do more… and then didn’t. So I’m still fairly happy to put my money on some sort of post EU presidency “review”.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,153 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Dozens of IMF, OECD, ECB, EU etc. reviews and reports over the last 10 years have recommended that we stop relying on outsized corporation tax receipts to fund huge annual increases in current spending. The Government ignore every single one. They will mention a few words about "financial responsibility" but then do the opposite by allowing departments to routinely overspend and then announce huge spending increases come October time.

    We've signed up to all sorts of commitments regarding climate change and the environment. Yet here we are, no chance of meeting our 2030 climate goal and only this week the EU is opening a case regarding our destruction of bogs. The government agree to these things in Brussels with lots of handshakes and photos and clapping themselves on the back, but when it comes to implementing them, interest evaporates.

    So the notion that a mildly worded recommendation to increase defence spending, buried in a much broader document is evidence that the government feels under pressure to undo 100 years of sclerotic Defence policy is just not believable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    If the Air Corps asked DEPR for 1.5 Billion for 5 Helicopters there would be mass heart failure in government buildings.

    https://anewz.tv/world/world-news/20657/us-backs-15bn-seahawk-sale-to-new-zealand/news



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    nah, just everyone laughing in their faces as it’s explained again that we don’t do defence!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,093 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Thats NZ dollars.

    Its €750 million equivalent.

    Which is strange in itself, as the retail on 5 x MH-60Rs is only €200 million. Either they are buying 10 complete choppers worth of spares, or have ordered a light frigate to go with them.

    Its worth noting though, that the NZ defence investment plan out to 2030 is for a lower amount than Ireland's investment programme over the same period.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 401 ✭✭mupper2


    Yes but one of those investment plans is currently paying out real money for things..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Reading other reports the price is for a full lifetime package support similar to the Irish H145ms deal.

    What would the price be for a full NH90 5 aircraft package support be i wonder?

    As much as the air corps might like the NH90 i could see the cost per hour to operate it been a major issue compare to the H145 or AW149 is something like 4 times the cost

    In seperate Air Corps news i seen in a recent PQ out 8 helicopters we have only 2 availble at all times and out of that 2 one is 112.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    They've already paid out for major spends like the P8's.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 401 ✭✭mupper2




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Yep, silly Kiwi's with actual warships, crazy lads…

    I see the Brits are still hoping that they might go Babcock for the replacements, but you'd have to imagine the Japanese have the order pretty much in the bag.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,093 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Which is all very well, but the NZDF is in a worse remuneration and retention crisis than Ireland. And they don't have the largesse to address it that we have. In fact, they are cutting hundreds of civilian DF roles to boost funding to the front line. Who picks up the work of those vacant posts? Nobody seems to know.

    So while ordering fancy new gear might be good propaganda, the NZDF wouldn't be well known for good project management and they are walking themselves into a far worse situation than Ireland, where extremely expensive new ships and planes will be immediately mothballed, or other craft taken out of service to operate them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Speaking of "largesse", seems that Starmer is now going for a last minute raid on the other departments to fund the DIP, with cuts to the Capital funding of 1% for the departments, cause raiding long term investments has worked so well for the UK since 2010.

    https://archive.ph/keBHR



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,093 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    The UK is now existing on the clippings of tin. And thats dangerous and destabilising for everyone, including us as their attached neighbour.

    All the more reason to be strengthening our security bonds within the EU. And with like minded democracies in our hemisphere such as Canada, on which note Prime Minister Carney is visiting Dublin and his ancestral home near Westport in the coming week.

    And also....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Yeah I posted that in the interesting article thread, as I said, not sure who I admire most, the Minister for having the Brass neck to talk about Defence to a room of nations actually taking defence seriously, or those ministers for keeping a straight face while an Irish minister talks about defence.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭Negative_G


    Security Bonds?

    Sounds awfully like a play on words for an "alliance".

    The Government preaches consistently about how Ireland is "Militarily Neutral", a term that didn't exist a number of years ago and doesn't seem to apply to any other Western nation who are either able to properly fulfil their security obligations or else join a security alliance to provide for security.

    Sending a few DF personnel to exercises and courses with other nations and to the NATO school is all well and good.

    That is until they are asked to leave the room while the big boys talk due to a lack of appropriate clearance.

    Anything ever come from that well lauded MOU which was signed with the British a number of years ago? No? Me either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Now given them some credit they are sending the Junior Part Time Minster of Defence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭Negative_G


    So much credit they even sent him commercially.

    Probably have him staying in an Air BnB with his handlers from Newbridge



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    @Negative_G i seen the social media video of your buddys shooting drones out of a 139.

    They do that in a built up area there will be some fun.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    That's one way to put it, hell unless they have a completely cleared zone even doing it out over Dublin Bay for example has the potential to go "badly". I get why something like that works in Ukraine, its a war and needs must, the AC lets off a GPMG over a populated area, there's going to be hell to pay even if its neccessary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    To return to the topic of if a helicopter replacement is going to happen and if @mupper2 rumour had any basis, something from the Minister's Questions (which I think I'm killing some braincells reading from both sides tbh), apart from saying Sonar is the "Underwater Radar Program"… The Part-Time Minister stated that sonobuoys deployed from helicopters is planned…

    Now short of lobbying them out the doors of the 139's, that does suggest there is still some consideration of maritime helicopters, which brings us back to what European options are there?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,924 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Its a tough job in the DoD watching You Tube.

    Future Air Corps projects identified within these planning processes include the acquisition of a fleet of super-medium helicopters to replace the current fleet of AW-139 medium helicopters. This project is underway and is in the capability assessment phase in accordance with the requirements of the Infrastructure Guidelines. Progress is being made towards identifying the helicopter type that will best meet the operational requirements of the Defence Forces.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭Negative_G


    You should have seen what they were shooting... Rolleyes. Like something you'd buy in eurosavers.

    Nothing more than a token tick the box exercise to say the "capability" is achieved.

    Of course, as per, there was a limited number of personnel who completed the training. So much like the MV Matthew Op, lets hope nobody is on leave if something goes down.

    Would make an interesting PQ all the same.

    I mean what could possibly go wrong, rapidly firing unguider 7.62mm rounds in an urban environment from an unstable airborne platform.

    Wonder will Jacqui or Helen sign off on the ROE for that one or will it be a repeat of the PC-9s flying around with empty rocket pods.. Looks good for the social media posts though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Nah, at this stage I'm not betting against them just using Grok or some other shite AI gimmick.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Now to be fair, they did actually show the "drones" being used… Not sure it really helps sell the idea that they are taking it seriously but never mind, as you say box ticked, move on.



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