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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed (Threadbans in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    The non-discovery by the Irish is probably more down to the advancement of the techniques in the intervening years. It’s a big reason that losing the gate was such a heinous issue.

    In addition they didn’t actually DNA test all the samples, a bunch of the original tests were just blood-type testing, and they used all of the blood for the test. The forensic testing wasn’t actually that great, and is a reason for having our hopes up for MVac.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 46,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Playing Devil's Advocate here but assuming there was a hit with the MVAC results which identified a know DNA profile - that person was caught and brought to trial. I'd assume a key part of the defence would be an unidentified male DNA sample on her boot which would help introduce doubt.

    So, it is possible that what is happening now is eliminating the owner of the boot DNA to remove this legal curveball

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    That's not how it works. Being related would mean that you would have many STR markers in common with your relatives but unlikely to have ALL STR regions in common unless you were identical twins or highly inbred. They would need to have DNA from every likely suspect in order to rule them in or out completely.

    I suspect if it's a highly mixed sample it may be impossible to determine which STR loci are part of which profile, especially if a degraded sample means some peaks are too low to call (I suspect FSI do it through PCR and capillary electrophoresis which is the gold standard for STR analysis).

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Not quite true, if they find a DNA trace, one of the children would be enough to rule the entire family out (assuming all blood relatives). This is how we know that unknown male DNA was not left from any of Sophie’s close family (father, brother, son).

    If they do find a partial match though to find the specific person who left it would require them each to submit a sample, that’s correct.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    That's not true in a mixed sample of unknown provenance and poor quality. A scientist wouldn't be able to stand up in court and say with certainty there was no match to an individual family member without having a sample of that family member.

    That could work if they had a complete sample from a single individual of good quality that definitely belonged to a perpetrator, such as semen or DNA from a victim who struggled during an attack. I highly doubt the MVAC sample fits criteria given the delay with a released result.

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    We’re talking about two different hypothetical situations.
    Ultimately I expect that the gardai are trying to get everyone’s profile to rule them out, I’m just saying that IF they have a profile that they are trying to compare against, NOT having everyone’s DNA from the list doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t rule them out.

    Sometimes just going and asking for DNA from a suspect can be an opportunity to see if they are acting strange or it can be a red flag if they are refusing etc., so these reports/leaks can be coordinated too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Yes, now that you say it, “ long dead” probably not Bailey. Maybe Heinz Wolney?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson




  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Just heard on the radio a DNA signature that is not Bailey has been found on her footwear.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 46,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The French investigation found that out years ago. It just doesn't suit the usual storytelling you get in the Irish media, so doesn't get mentioned.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,518 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    He may have owned more than one long, dark overcoat. There were remnants of clothing discovered among the embers of the bonfire which Gilligan, the forensics detective, examined. Round metallic discs, which he thought were coat buttons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Yeh, and wouldn't it have been simple to just gather the evidence since the coat buttons could actually be forensically examined, similar to the boot eyelets. The fact they didn't indicates that they didn't see them as having evidentiary value. Same goes for taking a picture of the scratches. If someone actually thought they looked like briar scratches a picture would have been taken. That the gardai didn't really give much credence to these things, even after Bailey was put on the suspect list, means we shouldn't really give much either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,518 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    Why not ? It's entirely possible he could have travelled to Sophie's and back - even on foot - without anybody noticing. There is no conclusive proof of his exact whereabouts and movements on the night. He and Jules gave conflicting accounts to Gardaí in this regard - changed their stories at least once.

    Why do you think it was "extraordinarily improbable" that he went to see Sophie that night ? We are talking about a long timeframe between the last public sighting of Bailey and the discovery of the body. Up to ten hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl


    100s of people who lived within a few miles walk or 1,000s who lived within a reasonable drive could have done it, so the chances it was any individual is very remote.

    However, we do know Bailey was at home early in the morning and we have the fact that, due to the breakfast foods in STDPs stomach, it was more likeky to have occured at dawn. It is extremely unlikely that Bailey could have walked several KM in the likely timeframe. I would also add its unlikely someone of Baileys age/health would have covered the total distance easily full stop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭tibruit


    We don`t know that he was home early that morning. The first time Bailey was asked what time it was that he arrived with the cup of coffee for Jules he said 11 AM.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    The long, dark, overcoat that would have protected his arms from the scratches from brambles? Did he have scratches from brambles or not then? Makes your minds up!

    The guards stated there was nothing of evidentiary value in the fire, a fire that Jules said was in November.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    According to you he was sat in the dark in the studio. Care to answer my questions? Why push the articles Monday deadline back to Tuesday if it was ready to be submitted earlier as you believe?

    As for the light in the studio, do you know which room he was using, front or back? Was it viewable from the direction of somebody passing? Do you know at all or are you just making giant leaps that that he was not at the studio based on no evidence again?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,960 ✭✭✭csirl




  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Weve seen in the UK and US that sometimes, a suspect is paraded before the media. I think that sort of thing is prejudicial to a case. In the US its known as the "Perp Walk".

    We almost never see it in Ireland, but something similar happened to Bailey. The media were there when he emerged from the Gardai station. Were they tipped off as part of an attempt to frame him?

    Cliff Richard successfully sued the BBC over something like this years ago. He was clear of false allegations.

    I have always believed that while he was a strong suspect, he was railroaded by the authorities because of political pressure from France to "get" someone quickly. Her late husband was close to President Mitterand I think, and they were going through a divorce.

    The site should have been secured quickly. The fact it wasnt posed the risk of evidence being removed (which happened to the gate) or planted.

    Post edited by Ozymandius2011 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭tibruit




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭tibruit


    "According to you he was sat in the dark in the studio"

    That was irony. Apologies if I confused you.

    "Care to answer my questions? "

    Not particularly. Life is too short. I acknowledged several posts back that there was a little bit of wriggle room. So far you are doing really well in narrowing it down to a set of circumstances that are so unlikely they are not even worth considering. Maybe there was a basement in the studio?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,184 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    The MVac probably has several hits. I guess the most important ones are on her night clothes worn on her death.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭Zola1000


    Your one to talk but not willing to answer any others. The simple answers to simple questions....but you don't have anything.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    But it’s odd that it’s only now they are checking the boot DNA abroad. They’ve known about for 8 years. The French were not interested in it as it didn’t suit their Bailey did it narrative. It would never have come to light if Ian Bailey hadn’t found it in the French files.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    This boot DNA may still turn out to be unconnected with the crime.

    But it must definitely be followed up and eliminated, if at all possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    You don't want to answer simple questions, that's your right. Others will be left to make their conclusions on why. No matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Since they are now investigating MVac, and DNA in general, logic dictates they should look at the previous finding. Like they already have a hit, let’s figure out who left that at the same time. Previously there was no real push to investigate anything that wasn’t to do with Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    The point I’m making is the cold case review team have been on the case for 4 years. Why has it taken until now for them to investigate the boot DNA abroad (France?)

    As far as I know, apart from going through Bailey’s belongings after he died, they have no interest in him or Jules Thomas whatsoever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    I get your point, and I’m saying that because of the MVac, logic would indicate the whoever gave the green light for that testing, would also recommend further looking into the boot DNA, not least because they may find the same profile again.

    Aside from DNA, the cold case hasn’t done much of note as far as I can tell. They were looking for videos of the literary festival or whatever trying to find Bailey not too long ago for example. Something spurred them into action regarding DNA in the last year or so, which is always going to be the best chance of success.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,976 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    If Bailey were alive you can be guaranteed they would have pursued this loose end much earlier than in the last year to try and eliminate it conclusively - you can’t have unknown and unaccounted for DNA hanging around a murder scene when you have a case as week as they do against Bailey- they would be laughed out of court and rightfully so - tons of “reasonable doubt” here.



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